Free Picks for Thursday, April 6th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
NETS VS. MAGIC
PLAY: NETS +2.5
There really isn’t anything to say here from an analytic, situational or scheduling dynamics standpoint.
Simply stated, the Brooklyn Nets are playing by far their best basketball of the season in games that only matter to them. Hats off to this team as they’re really working hard to finish an otherwise brutal season on a high note. Fact is, that’s exactly what the Nets are doing. While other non-playoff teams are either mailing it in or picking their spots to play with a little focus, this ragtag Brooklyn entry is playing extremely hard and reaping some positive dividends.
There’s nothing to the indicate the Nets feel they’ve done enough and will just take it easy in the final few games. Tonight Brooklyn visits an Orlando team that is limping home on a five-game losing streak. I’d rather side with the team that’s on what for them, has to be called a roll. Brooklyn plus the available points is the choice.
Bruce Marshall
Chicago -5.5
After losing and failing to cover twice vs. Chicago, Philly took advantage of D-Wade's absence in 117-107 win at United Center on March 24. Bulls didn't provide much help that night for Jimmy Butler (who scored 36), while Dario Saric's campaign for Rookie of the Year votes continued when he scored 32 that night for Sixers. Saric, however, is likely on minutes restriction this week due to a heel injury. And Chicago has come up with a rare stretch of consistency (and potent offense) in time to save its season. Entering the week, they'd won four straight games, and shot an amazing 43% from 3-point range over their last eight.
Scott Rickenbach
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
Play: Philadelphia -103
Like backing the Phillies here off of a shutout loss to the Reds yesterday. The fact is neither team hit the ball well yesterday and I think the finale of this 3-game set is going to come down to pitching. That said, the Phillies hold the advantage with the veteran Clay Buchholz getting the start. After 10 years with the Red Sox, Buchholz makes his Phillies debut in blustery, chilly conditions at Cincinnati early Thursday. Look for him to hold the edge over Rookie Davis of the Reds. Yes, his name is Rookie and this is the major league debut for the rookie. Though he had a great spring there is always a difference when the games count and Davis went winless with a 7.50 ERA last season in his 5 games (4 starts) at the AAA level. Now he steps up to the big leagues and I don't expect his debut to go well here. Even with yesterday's loss the Phillies are 7-4 the last 2+ seasons in road games where they are priced between -100 and -125. As for the Reds, even with yesterday's win, Cincinnati is 28-41 in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs the past 2+ seasons. Look for the Phils to bounce back off the shutout yesterday as they take this series with a big pitching edge on the mound in this one.
Scott Spreitzer
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs -112
Chicago eked out a win Tuesday night and now the dependable John Lackey takes the mound against the Cardinals, who hit only .200 against him last year while scoring only six earned runs in 26 2/3 innings, including just three runs in 14 innings at Busch Stadium. Lackey is 12-4 with a 2.02 ERA in his career in this stadium. St. Louis might be without right fielder Stephen Piscotty, who set some sort of record on Tuesday by getting hit by a ball three times in the same plate appearance - once at the plate and twice on the bases. Lance Lynn is making his first start since 2015 as he comes off Tommy John surgery. The Cubs have won 46 of their last 63 games against right-handed starters and Lackey won five of his last six starts last season. Lynn has started four games versus the Cubs in his career and the Cards lost all four. I expect more of the same.
Marc Lawrence
Chicago vs. St Louis
Play: St Louis +107
Edges - Cardinals: Lynn 1.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP this spring; and 13-6 April team starts… Cubs: Lackey 0-3 last three team starts in this series. With Lynn 5-1 at home in his career team starts during April, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Art Aronson
Chicago vs. Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia +6½
Chicago had its four-game win streak stopped in a 100-91 road loss to New York on Tuesday. Philadelphia is dealing with a rash of injuries and has lost four straight, most recently a 141-118 setback at home to Brooklyn. Chicago is feeling the heat right now, it’s currently seventh place in the East, but sits only a half game ahead of Miami, which is in ninth. The Bulls shot a poor 38.1 percent in the seback to the lowly Knicks. Philadelphia has done surprisingly well in this spot for bettors this year, going 19-7 ATS after a loss by ten points or more and 12-8 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. And note that Chicago has struggled in this position, going just 4-9 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and only 14-23 ATS against teams with losing records. We think the home side can keep this one competitive until the final moments. Consider taking the underdog 76’ERS in this matchup.
Power Sports
Milwaukee vs. Indiana
Pick: Milwaukee
The Bucks have a chance to sweep the season series from the Pacers here. If they were to do so, it would certainly be beneficial to their playoff prospects, which have taken a hit w/ B2B bad loss to Dallas and Oklahoma City. The latter was the real humiliating one as they lost by 31 and shot only 35.8% from the field. But, as alluded to above, this Eastern Conference matchup has been far more favorable to them. They've beaten the Pacers by an average of 16 points per game this year, winning all three matchups by double digits. Therefore, taking the points here would seem to logical to me.
It is true that Indiana is a far better team at home than on the road. In fact, they have lost SU just five times when priced in the chalk role at home. But one of those five SU losses came against the Bucks back on Feb 11. The Pacers did just record a big 108-90 win over Toronto here on Tuesday, but prior to that had lost four in a row and six of seven. Personally, I have Milwaukee rated as the better team here, so the number appears inflated. Defensive efforts like the one turned in vs. the Raptors have been few and far between of late.
Here's how things stand (entering Wednesday). Milwaukee is 5th in the East w/ a 40-38 SU record. Indiana is tied for 7th at 38-40 SU. There is a lot of drama over the four final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference, but here I can't help but lean towards the team that has played better down the stretch AND is getting points. The Pacers are only 3-6 ATS after allowing 90 pts or less the previous game. They were held to 35 second half points by the Bucks last month in Milwaukee, a game where they were 2 of 18 from three-point range.
Big Al
Detroit vs. Chicago
Pick: Detroit
Most people agree that the Tigers and White Sox (not to mention the Twins and Royals) will be playing catch-up all season in an effort to overtake a superior Indians team which won the Division last Fall and almost won the World Series. But of the other team in the Division, the Tigers are the ones that might give the Tribe the most trouble. After all, you have a starter - Justin Verlander - who almost won the Cy Young, and a dangerous lineup that still features the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton, and Ian Kinsler. The Sox, meanwhile, unloaded some players in the off-season, and probably aren't done as you can expect them to make a few more trades before the deadline, including perhaps Todd Frazier and Jose Quintana. This afternoon it will be game two of this series after two postponements, and the starters from Wednesday's game will carry over to this afternoon, That means that James Shields will get the start for Chicago and it will be interesting to see how he performs coming off of the worst season of his career. Shields' numbers were truly ugly in 2016 (6-19 with a 5.85 ERA in 33 starts) and there's little to suggest that 2017 will be much better as Shields enters his age 35 season. The Tigers have won 14 of the last 21 meetings.
Larry Ness
Boston vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
The 50-28 Boston Celtics will limp into Atlanta for tonight's game with the Hawks. The Celtics really covet the No. 1 overall seed, so the 114-91 blowout loss was disheartening. Boston was a combined 7 of 33 from beyond the arc and on the defensive end of the court, had no answer for LBJ (36-10-6). Love added 15 points and 16 rebounds, while Irving chipped in 19 points and five assists.
The good news for the Celtics tonight is the fact that the Hawks are seemingly trying to miss the playoffs. Atlanta has lost nine of 11 and while the Hawks own the No. 6 seed at 39-38, the Bulls, Heat and Pacers are all 38-40, just 1 1/2 games back. Falling from the No. 6 seed to being out of the playoffs is hardly a stretch, even though the Hawks have just five games remaining.
Losing at the NBA-worst Brooklyn Nets on Sunday was bad but there was a silver lining. All Star power forward Paul Millsap (18.1-6.3) returned from an eight-game absence due to a knee issue on Sunday. Yes, he scored a modest 14 points on 4-of-14 shooting and won't be operating at full strength for this one but he has had time to recover from Sunday's contest with a three-day stretch without a game. Let's also not forget the play of Dwight Howard (13.9-12.9 and 62.8% on FGs), who has double digit rebounds in 19 consecutive games.
How many realize that Atlanta's streak of nine consecutive NBA postseasons is the second-longest active streak in the league, behind only the Spurs? I can assure you the Hawks are aware of it and are also aware that a loss here puts them in danger of not extending their streak to 10 straight postseasons. Boston got exposed last night and doesn't have enough time to recover against the well-rested Hawks. Atlanta is the bet.
Strike Point Sports
Washington vs New York
Play: Washington
The Knicks stink. They are one of the worst teams in the NBA and they won't be able to keep pace with the Wizards in this one. John Wall and Bradley Beal have become one of the most dominant backcourts in the NBA, and the Knicks have absolutely no one that can stop them. This game is going to be over by halftime. I hate to say it, Knicks fans, but playing this game on your home floor will do nothing for your team or their morale. Not only is the Wizards first five considerably better than the Knicks group, their bench will extend whatever lead the starters have surmounted. Look for this to be a yawner as the Wiz cruise.
Robert Ferringo
Detroit vs. Chicago
Play: Detroit -115
I think that Detroit is going to win this series with the White Sox, and they very well could be lining up for a sweep this Thursday afternoon. The White Sox are a team that is in the beginning stages of a complete rebuild and overhaul. They traded away two of their better players this offseason, and they are not expected to compete in the Central this year. The Tigers are an aging, overpriced team. But they are also a group that is likely setting itself up for one more potential playoff push. The Tigers are healthier than they have been at this point in the season over the past few years. And I think that Detroit's veterans see the writing on the wall; a fast start is imperative. Derek Holland is a guy that got crushed his last two seasons in Texas, and I don't think he is the answer in Chicago against a Tigers lineup that can be as ferocious as any in the A.L. Detroit is 6-3 in its last nine games against the White Sox and the favorite has been strong in this series, going 8-2 the last 10 times they have squared off.
Vernon Croy
Kansas City at Minnesota
Play: Under 8
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and I see a very low-scoring game here Thursday given the pitching match-up. Hammels got off to a quick start last April with an ERA of just 0.75 with opponents hitting just .175 against him over 4 starts, and I expect him to get off to another solid start this April. Hammels has just 1 start against the Twins over the last 3 seasons with an ERA of just 1.42 over 6.1 solid innings of work, while the Twins hit just .167 against him. This is a big bounce-back year for Gibson and he has a moderate ERA of 3.64 over the last 3 seasons against the Royals. Now you factor in the cold playing conditions and it gives the pitchers an edge in this game over the batters, so play the UNDER with confidence.
Eric Schroeder
My free play is the very first game on the baseball card, as I'm playing the Cincinnati Reds over the Philadelphia Phillies. And in this one I want you listing Rookie Davis, the Reds' right-hander who is making his Major League debut.
Davis, once considered an outside contender entering camp, earned a rotation spot based on his competitive nature and poise on the mound.
Davis established a slider during the offseason, and manages the game well while he's on the hill. His patience is one of his strong suits, while he doesn't have a panic button.
At home, with family and friends watching, Davis will shine in his debut against the Phillies.
4* REDS
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Thursday is off the early card, as I like the Colorado Rockies over the Milwaukee Brewers. And in this game I want you listing ONLY one pitcher, that being Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela.
He is one of two Rockies pitchers in the rotation, and who is making his Major League debut. Senzatela makes the jump from Double-A, and is poised for stellar introduction. This is a kid who has been firing an 86 mile per hour fastball since he was 15, and hit 92 at 16 years old.
He brings his heater to batters around 95 mph now, and compliments it with a slider that will slice through the zone and leave hitters baffled.
One of the organization's top prospects, the Venezuelan right-hander has a 2.58 ERA and 305 K's in 384 innings pitched over 67 Minor League starts. He went 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA over seven starts last season at Double-A Hartford.
Without a true Major League scouting report, the Brewers won't know how to approach him, and he'll be the one at an advantage. Take the Rockies and list only Senzatela.
5* ROCKIES