Brad Wilton
Thursday comp play is Minnesota and Portland to pick up where they off on the 3rd of this month when the teams met in Minnesota and combined for 229 total points in a game that played Over the total.
That Over is part of a 5 game Over streak for the Timberwolves who are on an overall 10-2 Over clip their last dozen games played.
With their Over against Minnesota on the 3rd, the Trail Blazers have played 3 of their last 5 games Over the posted price, including 2 of their last 3 in Rip City Over the posted price.
The T-Wolves are 5-0 Over the total their last 5 games in which they have scored 100 or more points in their previous game. That is the situation tonight, and the situation dictates a play on the Over in tonight's meeting at the Moda Center when they take on the Blazers.
Minnesota-Portland Over on Thursday night.
4* MINNESOTA-PORTLAND OVER
Ray Monohan
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs -130
This play just missed out on premium card. The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals game Wednesday was rained out. Everyone in each rotation is pushed back a day, which means there is a lot of value on the Cubs in this game. John Lackey had a solid season last year for the Cubs and is projected for the same this year.
On the bump for the Cardinals is Lance Lynn who will be making his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015. I expect he will have a ton of nerves in this game, and this Cubs lineup is not a lineup you want nerves against. I think the Cubs will get to him early and often, and John Lackey will have a quality start. Some trends to note. Cubs are 5-1 in Lackeys last 6 starts. Cubs are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in St. Louis. Cardinals are 0-4 in Lynns last 4 starts vs. Cubs.
Jimmy Boyd
Blue Jays -122
I really like the value here with Toronto as a short road favorite against the Rays. The Blue Jays will be all business in this one, as they were just swept in a 2-game series at Baltimore to open the season. Tampa on the other hand just took 2 of 3 against the Yankees and I just don't see them having the same edge as Toronto. The biggest key here is the starting pitching matchup.
The Blue Jays will send out Marcus Stroman, who many of you will recall being sensational in the title game of the World Baseball Classic. That's a pretty good sign of a pitcher who is locked in to start the season. It's also worth noting that Stroman posted a 2.86 ERA in 3 starts last year at Tampa Bay.
The Rays will counter with Blake Snell, who is a big time strikeout pitcher that still has to figure out the art of pitching and command of the strike zone. He'll have his moments, but will struggle with consistency. Blue Jays finished last season going 12-2 in their last 14 road games when coming off 2 or more losses and 22-8 in their last 30 after scoring 3 runs or less in 2 consecutive games.
Brian Bitler
Chicago vs. St Louis
Play: St Louis +120
We lost Tuesday backing the Cardinals but I am right back with them today as they are at home and have the better pitcher pitching plus we are getting nice plus money here. I've loved fading John Lackey in the past and granted he's been better then I expected as by now I figured he would be out of Baseball. This guy is 38 how much could he really have and he's facing a Cardinals team that is determined to start the season with a series win over the hated Cubs. Lance Lynn in his spring start and really wants to show he is fully back from his Tommy John surgery. Let's invest a nice 9* plus money investment on the Cardinals early today.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +102 over CINCINNATI
Named as the #3 starter for the Reds out of spring training, 23-year-old Rookie (Rookie is his first name) Davis finds himself in the big leagues for the first time. The 6'5", 255-pound righty is a ground ball specialist, not a strikeout artist. The Reds infield will get a workout when he pitches. Davis is a strong, tall right-hander who can command his pitches. His fastball is plus and sits low-to-mid 90s mph with solid sink. He has a curve and change-up that are both average pitches. The key for Davis is he can command each of his pitches in and out of the strike zone. So while he won't strike out guys, he won't walk them either, and is more of an inning-eater 4th-starter type. He might not have much upside, but he has a solid floor. He had a nice spring, striking out 25% of the 67 batters he faced while walking only three of them. That .258 oppBA from the spring is in line with his career minor league mark of .264, but beware that his Triple-A oppBA last year was .355 leading to an ugly 1.88 WHIP. He should have big league success as long as the defense is ready to help him. If the hits get through, heavy WHIPs could follow. He has a career 3.87 ERA, 7.5 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9 in 450.2 IP in the minors and all but 24 of those innings were at Double AA or lower. In other words, he’s pitched just 24 Triple AAA innings and may not be ready for prime time. Throw in the nerves of pitching in his first game and he simply cannot be favored here.
Then there’s Clay Buchholz. Every single pitcher knows or checks out the betting line. If Clay doesn’t do it himself, someone on the team will tell him that he’s an underdog against a rookie pitcher out of Double A. That’s insulting, especially when said rookie is not some hot-shot prospect. Buchholz’s results in 2016 were mixed. He started in Boston's rotation, but a lack of success relegated him to the bullpen. There he seemed to find himself, registering an ERA of 2.86 in August and 3.14 in September. However, his surface results those months were not well supported – as his xERA in the same two months was 4.00 and 4.97. Still, from 2013 to 2015 Buchholz’s xERA ranged from 3.31 to 3.99 to 3.36 and he’s not going to be fazed by anything. Buchholz will make his first start for his new team and if that’s not motivating enough, being a dog to a rookie out of Double A will be.
MINNESOTA -117 over Kansas City
Indeed it’s early and there is no reason whatsoever to panic but starting out 0-2 while getting outscored 16-2 makes for a couple of long days to open the year for the Royals. Kansas City looks like a dead team while the Twins are full of enthusiasm and it’ll be the Twins that come into this matinee affair relaxed and feeling good. That first win is often the toughest and K.C. simply does not look ready.
Jason Hammel is getting way too much love here because he’s coming off a 15-10 season with a 3.83 ERA over 167 innings. That’s nice but we can’t overstate enough the difference between pitching in the NL for a team that won 100+ games (the Cubs) and switching over to the AL to pitch for a team that is projected to lose 90 games. Also consider that when Hammel took the hill every inning last year, he was usually pitching with the lead, which is another major factor in whether or not a pitcher with average skills is successful or not. Let’s not forget that Hammel was left off the Cubs postseason roster. The Cubs said it was because of elbow tightness but if that was true, why did he not miss a start in September? Hammel’s xERA last year of 4.20 reveals what we said earlier about just how average he is. He had fortunate strand and hit rates but this is the unforgiving AL and once those two correct, his ERA will rise. Last year’s results have Hammel overvalued to start the year and we’re in attack mode until the market adjusts.
Kyle Gibson is an enigma to be sure. Scouts, managers and those in the know have been saying for years that this is finally “the year” that Gibson breaks out only it never happens. Last season it was more of the same when Gibson couldn't build on his promise from 2015, although maybe it was not all his fault. Team defense was a huge problem all year long and organizational allergy to strikeouts may explain his swing and miss/K-rate disconnect. With new regime in town, he's worth one more shot because he throws strikes and is coming off a promising spring in which he only allowed five earned runs and 24 hits/five walks in 28.1 innings. If Gibson gets blown up so be it but this bet is more about fading Hammel and the Royals after Minnesota scored 16 runs in its first two games and can’t wait to get this one started.
Colorado +105 over MILWAUKEE
We like the Brewers very much this year. We trust they’re an extremely undervalued squad and we’re banking on them being profitable when the time is right but it is not right for this game. Chase Anderson makes his season debut here after going 9-11 last year with a 4.39 ERA over 151.2 innings. However, with an xERA of 4.75, a WHIP of 1.37 and a fly-ball lean profile, Anderson is living proof that not all guys with starting roles are worth your time. This one has lucked into innings pitched by being on bad teams the last two seasons. As Anderson’s first pitch strike rate keeps declining, his swing and miss rate won't help him push his strikeout needle, so his command is in line to erode further and he's already getting hit hard enough as it is. The risk on Anderson far outweighs the reward and therefore we want no part of him as the chalk.
The Crew are favored here because the Rockies have a rookie starting. A 2011 signing out of Venezuela, the 6’1”, 180-pound Antonio Senzatela missed significant time last season due to shoulder soreness, but he’s put together an altogether excellent minor league career and is poised to take his game to the major league level. Senzatela’s best pitch is his plus 92-95 fastball that has heavy, sinking life and comes in at a steep angle. He also features excellent command of the pitch to all parts of the plate, helping the offering play up. He backs this up with two average pitches in a curveball that hits at 78-80 and a changeup that currently sits below average but should get to average with more reps. Senzatela has posted solid control rates up the ladder and has done well keeping the ball in the park, giving him even more upside should it all come together. More likely he’s a dependable #3 starter that should return some profits in the right spots and we'll put that to the test here.
Senzatela’s career minor league line:
489.0 IP, 2.45 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 6.6 K’s/9, 24 HR, .226 oppBA, 1.06 WHIP.
Wunderdog
Calgary @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -131
The Calgary Flames will be in the playoffs and with less urgency, they've dropped three of four and five of eight. Calgary is #16 in goals scored, #14 in goals allowed, and is off a 3-1 loss at Anaheim, now 3-7 against the Pacific Division. This is the middle of a three-game road trip to end the regular season and they face a Los Angeles team with no playoff pressure on them. The Kings exploded on offense at home the last game, blitzing Edmonton 6-4. The Kings have a winning record at home and are outstanding on defense at fourth in goals allowed, and third in penalty killing. The Kings are 8-2 at home against a team with a winning road record, while Calgary has lost six of the last eight here - including the last four.
Jack Brayman
Let's head to Chavez Ravine for today's free winner, as I like the Los Angeles Dodgers on the Run Line against the San Diego Padres.
Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
Now, that said, I won't mind talking about the scheduled starters, since they will be on your ticket. The Dodgers hand the ball to Brandon McCarthy, who is 7-1 in his career against the Padres. The right-hander returns to the starting rotation after two years of injuries.
San Diego hands teh ball to Jered Weaver, who makes his Padres debut after spending 11 seasons with the Angels, in Anaheim.
The Dodgers will be heavy chalk most of the season, as they're a favorite to challenge the Chicago Cubs for the National League pennant. Since its Opening Day rout, Los Angeles has been stymied a bit.
Look for the Dodgers to let loose in this series finale.
5* DODGERS -1.5
John Martin
Wolves vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -5½
The Blazers have gone 14-5 in their last 19 games overall to put themselves in position to make the playoffs. They lead the Nuggets by one game for the 8th spot in the West. They have won five straight home games and are 8-2 in their last 10 home games overall. The Timberwolves are just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall. They did beat the Blazers 110-109 at home on Monday, but that will only fuel the fire of Portland here as it will be out for revenge. The Timberwolves are 15-30 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons. Minnesota is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall, and 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight road games. The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Mike Lundin
Mariners vs. Astros
Play: Astros -150
The Houston Astros are looking to complete a 4-0 sweep of this series with the Seattle Mariners, and I like their chances with Joe Musgrove on the mound. The 25 year old right-hander compiled a decent enough 4.06 ERA through his rookie season, and he was 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA in six games (five starts) home at Minute Maid Park. He might not have too much to fear from a Mariners squad that has mustered only four runs in 31 innings so far this season.
The Mariners turn to left-hander Ariel Miranda who struggled through spring training during which he posted a 5.03 ERA in 19 2/3 innings of work. The Mariners are 2-16 in their last 18 games after losing the first three games of a series and I think the Astros will prove well worth the price here.
Jack Jones
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs -128
John Lackey remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He went 11-8 with a 3.55 ERA last season for the Cubs. Lackey has owned the Cardinals, going 2-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in six career starts against them.
Lance Lynn missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2015. Nerves will be an issue for him in his first start back. Lynn is 6-6 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.346 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Cubs, including 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA in his last three, allowing 14 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.
The Cubs are 47-16 in their last 64 games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is 5-1 in Lackey's last six starts. The Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last five home starts. St. Louis is 0-4 in Lynn's last four starts vs. Chicago.
Dave Price
Seattle vs. Houston
Play: Seattle +138
I'm taking a shot on the Seattle Mariners today at a nice underdog price against the Houston Astros. The Mariners are hungry for their first victory after starting 0-3, and they'll be trying to avoid the series sweep at the hands of the Astros today. All three losses were brutal as they were in it right until the end, including a blown 3-2 lead in the 13th inning last night. Ariel Miranda faced the Astros once last season, giving up 2 earned runs and 4 base runners in 7 innings of a 7-3 victory. Miranda finished 5-2 with a 3.88 ERA in 12 games (10 starts) for the Mariners last season. The Mariners are only 16 for 110 (.145) at the plate this season, and with the talent this lineup has, these struggles are unlikely to continue.
Black Widow
Chicago vs. Philadelphia
Play: Chicago -4½
Bets against home teams (Philadelphia) off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more, in April games are 39-11 ATS since 1996. The 76ers have lost four straight and were just beaten 118-141 at home by the Nets in their last game. They are short-handed right now with all their injuries. The Bulls really can't afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs.
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
Play: Toronto -148
The Leafs will look to bounce back off a home loss and they catch Tampa in a tough spot as the Lightning are 1-8 playing a 4th game in 6 nights and they are 48-101 long term vs winning home teams. Toronto is 5-1 off a loss of 3 or more goals and have won 7 of 9 vs the Eastern Conference. In games vs an opponent with a losing road record The leafs have won 4 straight. We will stay at home with Toronto tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
ANAHEIM -½ +134 over Chicago
Regulation only. With the Western Conference's #1 seed all wrapped up, the Blackhawks are the definition of a team playing out the string. Chicago is a veteran team that is no stranger to a Stanley Cup run and therefore there is no reason for its seasoned players to knock themselves out on this two-game California swing. In their last game in Denver against the Avs, the Blackhawks were outshot 51-27 in a 4-3 overtime loss that obviously flattered the visitors. Chicago's pedigree as a perennial playoff contender combined with its recent dominance over the Ducks has them getting way too much credit here. Hawks' defensemen Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith would likely rather spend their evening riding the spinning teacups at Disneyland than dealing with Anaheim's horses up front. Chicago hasn't played well lately going 5-2-3 in its last 10 games but again, they are a seasoned team that is not putting emphasis on meaningless games with less than a week to go until playoffs start. The Blackhawks are very beatable in this spot.
The Ducks have points in 12 straight games and are coming off a home-and-home sweep of the playoff bound Flames. After their traditional slow start, the Ducks are now playing their best hockey when it matters most. With a four point lead over the Sharks and Oilers, this is a big one for the Ducks, as they look to win the Pacific Division and clinch the #2 seed out West. The Ducks are taking care of business against some good teams too with wins over the playoff-bound Capitals, Rangers, Blues, Oilers, Sharks, and Flames during this impressive 12 game run. Adding the Blackhawks to that list would be the cherry on the sundae and also serve two purposes. First, it’ll send the Blackhawks a message heading into the playoffs and secondly, it’ll give the Ducks a great chance for more home games in the playoffs. Throw in the significant edge in goal that the Ducks possess here and we trust we have a solid wager here.
Will Rogers
Chicago vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Chicago
The set-up: The Bulls fell back to 38-40 when they lost Tuesday night in MSG to the Knicks. Chicago enters tonight's game in Philly with an identical record to Miami and Indiana, as the three teams fight for the East's final two playoff sports. The 28-50 76ers have dropped four straight, after giving one of their worst performances of the season by losing 141-118 at home to the NBA-worst Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday.
Chicago: The Bulls had won four in a row, including wins over three teams ahead of them in the East, before falling to the Knicks. "You just look at the numbers on the glass: That tells you everything you need to know," Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg told reporters. "They just had their way with us. One guy beating three guys to the ball, (out-rebounded) 53-36 overall. (The Knicks had) 16 offensive rebounds. We were careless -- 15 turnovers. It's not how you win games." een a recurring theme for Chicago thi season. The Bulls have swept the four-game season series from the Cavaliers plus own wins over Boston, San Antonio and Golden State. However, they struggle against teams on the lower end of the standings.
Philadelphia: The 76ers allowed the Nets to shoot 64 percent from the floor in Tuesday's loss but head coach Brett Brown was not concerned about any lack of effort on the part of his team. I agree that effort is not the issue but rather injuries. Five Philadelphia players are out for the season and backup PG Sergio Rodriguez (strained left hamstring) will miss his sixth consecutive game on Thursday. Rookie forward Dario Saric, the Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month in March, is also playing with plantar fasciitis in his left foot.
The pick: How much can one team endure? Yes, the Bulls have underachieved against poor teams all too often but Chicago's final four games of the regular season come against teams with the three worst records in the East, Philadelphia, Orlando and Brooklyn (twice). Really think Chicago would be better off facing the Cavs (twice), the Celtics and the Raptors?