DAVE COKIN
ASTROS AT YANKEES
PLAY: YANKEES -120
Nathan Eovaldi throws hard, very hard. But we now know he’s not a guy who will likely ever be a strikeout artist. That’s usually what the hope is for guys who throw with Eovaldi’s velocity, but the reality is that he’s not a blow the batters away type of pitcher.
The good news is that I think Eovaldi has figured this out as well, and I was very encouraged by what I saw from the righty last season. Check out the vast improvement in Eovaldi’s GB/FB ratios and I think you might agree. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with limited K’s if ground balls are being induced and I think Eovaldi came to the realization that’s the pitcher he needs to be.
Mike Fiers will throw for Houston here. While he’s a high 80’s/low 90’s type, Fiers is a not bad at generating swings and misses. But he’s also a fly ball pitcher. I kind of see him as a guy who has managed to successfully walk the tightrope enough to hang in as a starting pitcher but I have a feeling there’s a regression coming for Fiers this season.
Fiers has generally not been good out of the gate and let’s just say he hasn’t had good luck in day games. Eovaldi’s ledger is still somewhat small sample, but he does fit some categories today where he’s done pretty well.
The back end of the NYY pen is available today, as the Betances-Miller combo had a night off in the Wednesday romp by the Yankees. I would therefore give a substantial late inning edge to the hosts after six or seven innings. Since I like Eovaldi over Fiers in the early innings, I’ve got no problem laying 6:5 with the Yankees today.
Sleepyj
Oakland-113
I've never been a big Mat Latos fan to be honest..The longer he stays in the league, the longer i will fade him...Tough out here for him today I think...I actually like Kendall Graveman...His last start was preseason and he looked pretty good Vs. the Giants...I think being at home here in a home opener for himself sets the stage...A's have lost the first two meetings and the 3rd game is undecided...The A's can get no better than a split if they in fact lose game 3..We are ahead of the move here and this number IMO goes up for this game...I trust Graveman here and I feel he is going to have a very good year..It starts with a solid outing today in a win.
Marc Lawrence
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Giants -115
Edges - Giants: Jake Peavy 15-5 last 20 team starts versus Los Angeles, including 4-0 the last four and 10-4 home career team starts. Dodgers: Alex Wood 3-8 April team starts, including 0-4 the last four. With Wood sporting a 7.13 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP this spring, look for the Giants to improve to 13-8 as a host in this series here this afternoon. We recommend a 1* play on San Francisco.
Bob Harvey
Spurs vs. Warriors
Play: Under 210
The Golden State Warriors pursuit of history has hit a stumbling block with two losses in one week. Tonight they’ll look to get back on the winning track when they host the San Antonio Spurs. Game time is set for 10:30 PM ET at Oracle Arena where the Warriors are favored by -6.5 with the total at 210. Golden State needs to win its final four games to set the record for most victories in a season (73) but in order to do that they’ll have to best the Spurs—twice. The two teams will meet again
The Spurs (65-12, 43-34 ATS are only 3.5 games behind the Oakland ballers in the standings and still have a shot at 70 victories if they win out. San Antonio scratched its way past Utah 88-86 to earn a fourth straight win on Tuesday and should have all of its starters available on tonight.
In the victory over the Jazz, Tim Duncan enjoyed the 1,000th career regular-season victory of his career making him the third player in history (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1,074, and Robert Parish, 1,014) to reach the mark.
The Warriors (69-9, 42-34 ATS) lost to Boston on Friday to end an NBA-record 54-game home winning streak and fell again at home on Tuesday after blowing a 17-point lead against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The teams have split two meetings this season, with Golden State blasting San Antonio 120-90 at home on January 25.
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 6-1 last seven. The UNDER is 6-2 last eight at Golden State.
Martin Griffiths
AC Sparta Prague vs. Villarreal
Play: Villarreal -1-120
Czech outfit Sparta Prague have done really well to get to this stage of the Europa League but I fear they have now gone as far as they can and will be sent packing by Spanish side Villarreal.
Vllarreal are in god form at the moment, they won in La Liga at the weekend away from home and previous to that held the dominant Barcelona to a draw, not many teams can claim to do that. They knocked out Bayer Leverkusn in the last round of this competition and are safe in a champions league spot in Spain.
Sparta Prague sit second in their domestic league, but in all fairness the Czech Liga is not in the same class as the Spain's La Liga, though it must be said that they did destroy Lazio in the previous round of this competition, a really impressive job.
Sparta will put in a decent performance I am sure but they are not in the same bracket as Villarreal, there is a gulf in class and I fully expect that to show this evening.
Rob Vinciletti
Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -5
Miami fits a nice league wide database system here that plays on home teams off a home favored win and cover that scored 100 or more and allowed 90 or less, vs an opponent like Chicago that lost to the spread by 10 or more points as a road favorite and also scored 90 or more. These home teams cover by over 85% long term. The Bulls are fading fast and are 2-15 to the spread vs South East Division teams and 9-30 ats on the road off a road game. With the winning team having covered 21 of the last 22 in this series we will play on the Heat tonight.
Big Al
Minnesota vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The Orioles won their season opener on Monday in dramatic, ninth-inning fashion after a lengthy rain delay. Then they won game two on Wednesday so now they look to finish the sweep against the Twins and RH Phil Hughes, who had a breakout season in his 2014 debut in Minnesota, but regressed significantly in 2015. The Twins like the fact that he came into Spring training in much better shape and he had the Spring numbers to support the hype as well. But Hughes is a terribly slow starter, winning just six times (with 16 losses) in 33 March/April starts with an ugly 5.84 ERA to go with it. The O's will hand the ball to Ubaldo Jimenez who has all but been forgotten since Baltimore signed him as a free agent in February of 2014. But Jimenez very quietly put together a nice campaign in 2015, winning 12 games with a 4.11 ERA and he's 4-3 with a very solid 2.72 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts) against Minnesota in his career. No doubt the O's were happy to beat the Twins in the first two games this season after throwing a goose-egg (0-7) against them last season.
Will Rogers
Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Over
The Cincinnati Reds are expected to be one of the weaker teams in the National League this season, but they are proving that their still better than the Phillies. The Reds have taken the first two games of this series, and they go for the sweep this afternoon at Great American Ballpark. My money is on the total to go over.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Red hand the ball to rookie right-hander Robert Stephenson, who makes his major league debut after being selected as a first round pick in 2011. The 23 year old struggled this Spring, but 11 strikeouts in just 10 innings was encouraging. The Phillies will send Charlie Morton to the mound, and his best days in the majors are almost certainly behind him. He was 3-5 with a 5.70 ERA in 11 starts on the road last year, before losing his spot in the rotation.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Reds are very familiar with Morton, and he hasn't fooled the Cincinnati veterans. Joey Votto is hitting .290 with seven RBIs in 31 at bats against him, while Brandon Phillips is batting .324 with a pair of doubles and four RBIs over 37 at bats lifetime.
3. X-Factor - The Reds have gone over in eight of their last 10 home games, while the two teams have gone over in 10 of the last 13 meetings.
Jim Feist
Spurs at Warriors
Pick: Under
So is this showdown going to be a run-and-gun duel, or a defensive one? Both teams are outstanding on defense, with the Spurs No. 3 in field goal shooting allowed and the Warriors at No. 4. San Antonio is also No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed. San Antonio is 4-0 under the total on the road and 22-8-1 under following a spread loss. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge provided their largest combined scoring output (64 points) of the season in San Antonio's 102-95 victory Saturday over the Toronto Raptors. San Antonio accomplished its goal of distributing more minutes to Leonard, Aldridge, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan as the team rounds into postseason form. The Under is 16-5 in the Spurs last 21 games following a straight up win. Golden State will play better defense after a stunning collapse, a loss at home to Minnesota. They are 6-0 under the total against a winning team, plus the Under is 18-7-1 in the Warriors last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. And when these rivals clash the Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Golden State.
Robert Ferringo
Minnesota (+120) over Baltimore
Phil Hughes has turned out to be a pretty good pro starter. He has been on kind of an every other year pattern of being very good, with his two best years in 2012 and 2014. Hughes was sharp this spring, posting a 3.43 ERA and allowing just .231 batting average against in his five starts. Ubaldo Jiminez, who is just horrendous, opposes him. This guy is the new Oliver Perez; I just have no idea why anyone keeps trotting him out there every fifth day because he is so awful. Jiminez has been extra awful this spring, posting a 12.27 ERA in his four starts. He gave up 12 hits and 10 runs in just seven innings of work. Truly, no bet against him is a bad bet. I'm going with the Twins here. You should too.
Strike Point Sports
Atlanta (-6) over Toronto
The Hawks need this game more than the Raptors do, and they are a strong home team. Look for Atlanta to control this game from the outset. The Hawks have the size in the paint, and the athletes to play the up-tempo game with the Raptors if need be, but also can pick and pop and get guard penetration to control the half court as well. Atlanta is just plain better on the offensive end of the floor as they score more points, shoot better from the field, shoot better from the line, and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. The Raptors are nearly locked into the two seed (Cavs would need to fall apart), while the Hawks are in a battle for third. They want the third seed, and they want to prove that they are better than Toronto, whom they would meet up with if they play in the 2 vs. 3 matchup in the semifinals. Take the home team here as they win and cover.
Vernon Croy
Minnesota / Sacramento Over 221
This pick falls into one of my top NBA systems, and I have this game flying over the posted total here Thursday night. The Kings are the 3rd-highest-scoring team in the NBA, averaging 107 PPG, and they are also the worst defensive team in the NBA with opponents averaging 109 PPG against them this season. The Timberwolves are the 24th-worst defensive team in the NBA with opponents averaging 105.6 PPG against them, and the style of play between these two teams favors the over greatly Thursday night.
Larry Ness
Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
The Minnesota Timberwolves will be watching the playoffs on TV for a 12th consecutive year this season but they did just pull off a stunning win in their last outing. Golden State, which had lost once in its previous 56 home games, led Minnesota by 17 points Tuesday as it tried to become the second team in NBA history to reach 70 wins. However, the T-wolves outscored the Warriors 46-31 in the fourth quarter and overtime for a 124-117 win. Shabazz Muhammad (10.1) led Minnesota with a career-high 35 points (note: he had averaged 6.8 over his previous eight games). Andrew Wiggins (20.8) scored 27 of his 32 points in the second half and OT to become the sixth player in club history to record 10, 30-point games in a season. Karl-Anthony Towns (18.2-10.5) finished with 20 points and 12 rebounds, averaging 20.5 & 11.6 while recording 13 straight double-doubles (has 49 on the season!).
Wiggins won last year's rookie of the year and Town is this year's favorite for the award. Minnesota has certainly shown glimpses of what it hopes will be a promising future. "You want to go out there and win," Towns said. "Every game, you want to go out there and you want to be a very competitive team that goes out there and wins." Tonight, he's bracing for what should be an exciting matchup with Cousins, a two-time All-Star averaging a career-high 27.1 points, as well as 11.6 RPG. Cousins returned from a two-game absence Tuesday, scoring 30 in a 115-107 home loss to Portland. Cousins isn't expected to play in any more road games but should be available for the final two at home against Minnesota and Oklahoma City.
Along with Cousins, Gay (17.2-6.4) is a quality scorer plus PGs Collison (13.7-4.2 APG) and Rondo (11.9-6.0-11.7) are both dangerous players. Cousins should be motivated plenty against another Kentucky big man (Towns) and the Kings can?t possibly like the idea that the T-wolves can make it a four-game season sweep over Sacramento, as Minnesota has taken each of the first three meetings this season. Off Minnesota?s shocking win in Oakland, the T-wolves fall flat here at Sleep Train Arena.
Jimmy Boyd
Red Sox +123
Boston is showing some decent value here as a dog in the finale of the 3-game set in Cleveland. The Red Sox won the opener 6-2 and had a lead late in game 2. Offensively this team has lived up to the hype to start the season, racking up 21 hits in their first two games. I look for the offensive fire-power to be the difference in this one, plus I give a slight edge to Boston on the mound.
Cleveland wills send out Danny Salazar, who is known as a strikeout pitcher, but often struggles to go deep in games. If Boston gets to him early, the Indians are in trouble. The Red Sox counter with Joe Kelly, who closed out last season with a 3.00 ERA over his last 9 starts and continued that in spring training, posting a 2.63 ERA in 6 starts. Boston is also 14-6 in Kelly's last 20 starts as a dog of +100 to +150.
Will Rogers
Phillies vs. Reds
Play: Over 8½
The Cincinnati Reds are expected to be one of the weaker teams in the National League this season, but they are proving that their still better than the Phillies. The Reds have taken the first two games of this series, and they go for the sweep this afternoon at Great American Ballpark. My money is on the total to go over.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Red hand the ball to rookie right-hander Robert Stephenson, who makes his major league debut after being selected as a first round pick in 2011. The 23 year old struggled this Spring, but 11 strikeouts in just 10 innings was encouraging. The Phillies will send Charlie Morton to the mound, and his best days in the majors are almost certainly behind him. He was 3-5 with a 5.70 ERA in 11 starts on the road last year, before losing his spot in the rotation.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Reds are very familiar with Morton, and he hasn't fooled the Cincinnati veterans. Joey Votto is hitting .290 with seven RBIs in 31 at bats against him, while Brandon Phillips is batting .324 with a pair of doubles and four RBIs over 37 at bats lifetime.
3. X-Factor - The Reds have gone over in eight of their last 10 home games, while the two teams have gone over in 10 of the last 13 meetings.