Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on the Arizona Wildcats, laying a big number on the road, to a very bad Washington State team that won't be able to keep up. The Cougars like play zone, but the Wildcats need to improve in breaking that type of D down, with the postseason tourney approaching.
And since the 5th-ranked Wildcats (23-3, 12-1 Pac-12) have a slim one-game conference lead over Oregon, and have shifted into must-win status.
Arizona's high-octane offensive attack has been slowed recently by a slew of zone defenses.
Arizona may not be known as a high-volume 3-point shooting team, but the fact is its 38.5 percent accuracy from downtown ranks second in the Pac-12.
Arizona won the first meeting, 79-62, and that was after the score was tied with less than eight minutes to play.
Washington State (11-14, 4-9) doesn't stand a chance in this one, as it has lost four in a row, including 81-49 at Colorado on Sunday.
Take Arizona, which will make it 12 in a row in the series.
2* ARIZONA
Brad Wilton
Last game before the All-Star Break for Indiana and Washington, and I think it is going to be a high-scoring one.
The Wizards have landed Over the price in 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall.
The Pacers are not far off that pace, as they have played Over in 4 of their last 5 games, with last night's game against Cleveland falling just shy of the posted price.
Series numbers show both showdowns in December playing Over the total, and the most recent meeting on February 10th also playing Over the total. Add 'em up, and you will find that 9 of the past 10 in this series have also landed Over the total!
I don't see any reason to argue those numbers, especially with both teams headed for a long break after tonight.
Wizards and Pacers rack up the points!
5* WASHINGTON-INDIANA OVER
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 51-33-2 run with free picks with a complimentary NBA winner. My 6-1 free pick run in the NBA continues tonight, as I take a look at the total in the Washington Wizards' matchup with the Indiana Pacers, in Indianapolis.
So here's the deal, and I'll keep this brief, four teams play tonight and the rest of the NBA is enjoying gumbo and cajun shrimp in the Big Easy. The All-Star Break begins tomorrow, and everybody will have some well-needed time off.
I don't see these two Eastern Conference contenders going too hard tonight, albeit they both need a solid win, and believe they'll be conservative with the energy to avoid injuries.
I'm going to bank on a slower paced game tonight, and count this one to stay low.
2* Wizards/Pacers Under
BRANDON LEE
Oregon -9.5
These two teams met back on 1/26 at Utah and the Ducks prevailed 73-67. While I like this Utes team, I don't think they will be any match for Oregon. The Ducks are a perfect 15-0 at home this season and aren't just beating teams, they are destroying them. Many will remember their recent 85-58 win over Arizona, which is one of the best teams in the country. They also have a 17 point home win over Stanford, 23 at home over Cal, 42 over Oregon State and 23 against USC. Last time out the Ducks won 81-70 at USC and Oregon is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season after a conference win by 10 or more points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers.
ALEX SMART
Flyers vs. Oilers
Play: Under 5½
The Flyers go into Edmonton having scored just four goals in their last five games and in their L/11 games have potted more than two goals just twice. Meanwhile, the host Oilers despite of a 5 goal output last time out vs lowly Arizona, had scored just 6 goals in their previous 5 games. With both teams struggling to bury the biscuit with consistency, and both playing their 3rd tilt in in 5 nights, and now on tired legs a lower scoring low energy game becomes a high possibility. I know these teams took part in a high scoring affair, on Dec 8 , as Philly took a 6-5 decision, but this time around, Im betting things will be different.
EDMONTON is 8-1 UNDER in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 5 or more goals with a combined average of 4.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in February games this season with a combined average of 3 ppg going on the scoreboard.PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER against good offensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or better of their pp opportunities- 2nd half of the season this season.
JOHN MARTIN
Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -3½
The Vanderbilt Commodores are getting zero respect from the books now following their worst loss of the season, a 20-point blowout at lowly Missouri. Now they return home with a chip on their shoulder as only 3.5-point favorites here against a rebuilding Texas A&M squad. The Commodores already rolled the Aggies 68-54 as 4.5-point road dogs in their first meeting this season on January 31st. That was a rare road win in this series as the home team had won the previous four meetings. And the Aggies have only two true road wins all season. The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Commodores are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
BRYAN LEONARD
San Francisco vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -21½
We went against the Dons last time out with much success and we do the same here. While this team is playing its best ball of the season the betting public has moved these lines much further than warranted.
Gonzaga is the most profitable team in the country and outclasses everyone of its league opponents. Look for the Zags to continue that dominance here with a line we expected to be 24.5.
TONY KARPINSKI
Morehead State vs. Tennessee State
Play: Tennessee State -1
By looking at the Ohio Valley standings you would think Morehead St and their 9-3 conference record is far better than Tennessee St which is 6-7. However, I have Tennessee St as the better team plus they are at home. Do not discount the importance of this being on one of the ESPN channels as it is a rare nationally televised OVC game and adds at least one point to their home edge. The host has the best defense in the conference (#93) and in Morehead’s other six conference road games the best defense they have faced was Tenn Tech (#233) a game that Eagles lost outright as a 3 pt favorite and shot a conference low 40.4%.
STEPHEN NOVER
Coyotes +225
The Kings are in action for the first time since last Thursday after being idle during their league-enforced bye week. That kind of rust can prove fatal as it did to Calgary three days ago when the Flames were shut out by Arizona, 5-0 at home, after not playing for six days. Now the Kings aren't the Flames, but there are elements and statistics that point to a very close game. At this huge 'dog price, the Coyotes are worth a peanut. Los Angeles isn't a big-scoring team ranking 24th, averaging less than 2.5 goals a game. The oddsmaker isn't expecting much scoring either setting an over/under of 5. This is just the Kings' second home game since Jan. 18 and first since Feb. 1. So the Kings need to get reacquainted with their home ice. LA defeated Florida in its last game last Thursday, but were outscored by a combined 10-0 during their previous two games. Arizona is used to West Coast time. The Coyotes are a highly respectable 6-3-1 in their last 10 games. Center Max Domi and defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson are good players and are playing well. Christian Dvorak has scored five goals in his last six games. Goalie Mike Smith made the All-Star team and is capable of sensational performances. The main part of this handicap, though, is a fade on the Kings based largely on their unusual circumstances and the overly generous 'dog price on the Coyotes.
ASA
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Play: Over 125½
Definite value with the OVER here. When these two met a month ago in Madison the total was set at 133 and these two hit 132 staying under by a single point. Neither team shot the ball all that well (Michigan 43% & Wisconsin 45%) and the Badgers also missed 10 FT’s in that game. Now we’re getting this total a full 7 to 8 points lower than that one. We realize Wisconsin has been struggling offensively but now they face Michigan defense that allows over 50% shooting in Big Ten play which is dead last in the conference. On the flip side, we get a Michigan offense that ranks #1 in the league in offensive efficiency. Thus we expect both sides to play at least average to above average offensively which should get us over this number. For comparison’s sake, Wisconsin just played Northwestern on Sunday and the total was essentially the same as this game (125 to 126 range). That’s vs a NW team that ranks 8th in the league in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency. Thus, much better than Michigan defensively and much worse offensively yet the total is the same. The Badgers and Wildcats hit exactly 125 in that game (66-59 final) and that was with Northwestern shooting 44% and Wisconsin 38% from the field. Not great offensive numbers and they still hit 125. We know Koenig is out for Wisconsin tonight and that may actually help this team on offense. He’s been hurt for 5 straight games now and shot the ball terribly. Koenig has made just 25% of his shots overall and only 16% from beyond the arc during that 5 game stretch. Trice is a solid back up and will provide more offense tonight. This total has been adjusted too low.
TEDDY COVERS
Wizards vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers +3
I haven’t bet against Washington since the calendar turned to 2017. But this is the spot to fade the Wizards, and the markets seem to be convinced that the Pacers are going to go into the All Star Break in the midst of a six game skid. That gives us ample value to back Indiana as a home dog this evening.
In theory, this is a great ‘spot’ for Washington. The Pacers have lost five straight, including a defensive no-show in Cleveland last night; the fifth straight game that Indiana has allowed at least 110 points. Meanwhile, the Wizards are rested and ready – they’ve only played once since last Friday, a blowout win over OKC that was garbage time by the middle of the third quarter.
But as we clearly saw last night with the Houston – Miami game, an extended rest BEFORE the All Star Break is not necessarily a good thing – teams lose their focus. The Rockets were in the exact same spot at the Wizards – coming off a rare, extended rest, having played only one game since last week, a blowout win. Washington has been as ‘focused’ as any team in the league for the better part of the last two months. I’m not convinced in the slightest that this layoff is going to help them bring their ‘A’ game tonight.
The Pacers should get Lavoy Allen back in the lineup tonight, a big return addition considering he’s been starting since Thaddeus Young got hurt at the start of this losing streak. And much of the losing streak can be blamed on ‘quality opposition’ – they’ve lost twice to Cleveland, once to San Antonio and once on the Wizards powerful home floor, no shame in any of those defeats. The only ‘bad’ loss during this entire stretch came at home against Milwaukee, and that can only be described as ‘one of those nights’ – the Bucks hit 55% from three point range, nailing 17 shots from downtown.
When these two teams played at the Verizon Center in DC last week there was no separation whatsoever, a tight game throughout. Indiana covered the spread despite a dismal 4-21 shooting effort from three point range. In fact, all three previous meetings between these two teams this year were tight, down-to-the-wire affairs; a series where we’re better off taking points, not laying them!
DAVE PRICE
Marshall -2.5
The Marshall Thundering Herd are a sensational 11-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season. They are scoring 89.9 points per game on 48.1% shooting at home this year. Now they seek revenge on UAB after losing to them on the road earlier this season. UAB is just 5-8 SU & 2-10 ATS in all road games this year. The Blazers are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games overall with a bad upset losses at UTEP (59-63) as 7-point favorites and UTSA (67-82) as 8-point favorites. They were also blown out at home by Old Dominion (62-83) as 2.5-point favorites last time out. Marshall is 11-1 ATS off a road game this season. UAB is 0-9 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in a week this season. The Thundering Herd are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5.
JACK JONES
Washington State +12½
The Washington State Cougars already hung tough with Arizona on the road in their first meeting this season. They only lost 62-79 as 22-point underdogs to cover the spread with relative ease as this was a 33-39 game at halftime. Now they'll be out for revenge at home this time around.
Arizona has been an overvalued commodity here in Pac-12 play down the stretch. The Wildcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. They only beat Stanford by 7 at home, Cal by 5 at home, Washington by 11 at home and that 17-point home win over Washington State. They won by 16 at Oregon State and lost by 27 at Oregon to round out this stretch.
Arizona is 1-8 ATS in road games after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 1-10 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the past two seasons. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.
JIMMY BOYD
Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Texas A&M +3½
This line doesn't make a lot of sense when you look back at the recent meeting this season and see that the Aggies lost at home to Vanderbilt 56-68 as a 4.5-point favorite. The betting public will be all over the Commodores laying a short number at home, but I'll take the points and call for Texas A&M to get their revenge.
Vanderbilt isn't exactly coming into this one in prime form, as they just lost 52-72 at Missouri as a 7-point favorite and that's not a good Tigers' team. That's important to note, as the Commodores are a miserable 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games off a road loss by 20 or more points. Vanderbilt is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 6.5 or less, while the Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
MIKE ANTHONY
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Play: Wisconsin +1
Wisconsin Ethan Happ has a bright future, he is getting more shots, and playing a bigger role for the Badgers. As well as becoming a bonafide superstar, Happ, will put the players of Michigan in bad positions way more than they can possibly handle. Whether off the box, or popping out for a quick jumper. Michigan gets put into situations that are not always very good for them. Playing from behind, being forced to chuck the ball. Recently, Derrick Walton has been playing very well - but still needs to shoot the ball more, bottom line. His game is ahead as to what it used to be. Even at home, this isn't going to matter much. Wisconsin wins by 8 points