SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +150 over BUFFALO
OT Included. Colorado has dropped four straight and have a mere three victories over their last 21 games. There is nothing left for these Avalanche players to do this year except pack their bags and pray for a trade. Regardless, the Avalanche are not playing as bad as their record suggests. In a recent 4-2 loss at Madison Square, Colorado out-chanced and outshot the Rangers in a 4-2 loss. They played a decent game in Pittsburgh in a 4-1 loss and they also played hard on The Rock in a 3-2 loss in their last game. The Avalanche recently had back-to-back wins over Montreal and Winnipeg while outscoring that pair 9-2. That’s significant because Winnipeg and Montreal are very much like Buffalo these days in that they lose when least expected to and can’t be trusted when spotting a tag, which is the basis for this wager.
Thee Sabres have appeal when they’re being offered a price because they win games, they have some front-line talent and their goaltenders can steal games. However, when the Sabres are favored in this range, they are insta-fade material because they’re chances of losing are usually greater than their chances of winning. Buffalo hasn’t won consecutive games since January 21-24 when they defeated Montreal and Nashville. They allowed 39 and 38 shots on net respectively in those two victories. In its 3-2 win over Ottawa on Tuesday, the Sabres were outshot 41-25. Buffalo has allowed 40 shots on net or more in five of its last six games and they are dead last in the league in that department. No team gives up more shots or scoring chances than the Sabres. The Sabres blow leads and lose games they should win because of their brutal defense. They are also issues between the ears with this team from Robin Lehner’s in game and postgame tirades to Jack Eichel implicitly calling out fans who were booing during a poor stretch of a recent game against the Sharks. The act of successfully completing a line change is often an adventure too. What usually happens after a big foundation-building win against a good team is followed by an absolute stinker against the league's lesser lights and the Colorado Avalanche are hungry enough to bring that to fruition.
Arizona +218 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. In sticking with the angle of fading teams coming off their bye, the Los Angeles Kings are next up. There are 30 teams in the NHL and so far teams coming off their bye are 2-8 with the Calgary Flames being the latest victim in its 5-0 loss to these same Coyotes on Monday. The Maple Leafs won off their bye but that one has to be discounted because they played a Rangers’ squad coming off their bye too. Inevitably, a few teams are going to win coming off their bye but it’s proven to be a profitable angle which we’ll continue to bet against regardless of whom is playing whom.
The Kings needed a bye more than any team in the league because prior to it, they had played nine out of their last 10 games on the road. During that stretch, Los Angeles traveled to the East Coast, the Midwest and to the desert before ending their excursion with two games in Florida. A ton of travel is exhausting and now a five day break will help to likely put them in a coma for this one.
The Coyotes are more than capable of beating teams that are sleeping. Suddenly, Arizona is creating a slew of chances every game with Christian Dvorak among many others playing at a high level. Prior to its 5-2 loss at Edmonton on Tuesday, the Coyotes had scored three goals or more in nine of 10 games. Arizona has also won six of its last 10 and has picked up points in seven of its last 10. Thus, the fade on these teams coming off a bye will continue today, tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday. Stay tuned.
SPORTS WAGERS
UCSB +5½ over Hawaii
The Warriors of Hawaii sit fourth in the Big West after a 72-58 home loss to UC Irvine last Saturday. That loss has been forgiven by some in the media, as the Rainbow Warriors were without freshman guard and sparkplug Leland Green, who is averaging 12-points-per-game in conference play this season. Green is expected back in the lineup tonight, but that should only inflate the 'Bows value here. On paper, this game with UC Santa Barbara looks like a total mismatch, but now Hawaii’s motivation to win comes into question. A dark postseason cloud lingers over UH. The 'Bows are waiting for word after they appealed a postseason ban that was handed down in 2015 because of infractions committed by the former coaching staff. It's been over a year since Hawaii filed the appeal, and still nothing. It's a situation that head coach Eran Ganot admits is wearing on his team. Said the Coach, “It's a tough situation”, it's the conference, it's our fans, it's travel arrangements, it's tough”. These guys aren't robots and you cannot take the human element out of these games. With no light at the end of this tunnel, how are the 'Bows going to respond? Hawaii has a tough travel schedule because of their island home but the last month of the season is brutal. This will be the 'Bows second trip to the mainland in just the last two weeks, and after a quick pit stop at home next Saturday, they'll be back in Cali to close out the year. It would not be a shock if it took UH some time to get their legs tonight in Santa Barbara.
The Gauchos have won just three games this season, but a home date with the defending Big West champs figures to get them fired up. With just one conference win this season, it's hard to make a case for the Gauchos, but we're not in the business of predicting the outcome of games. We're just looking for value. When these two teams played just three weeks ago, UCSB was a 7-point dog on the Big Island. The Gauchos we're blown out 78-56 but the line holds more relevance than the score. At that time, it was Santa Barbara's fourth straight loss, a streak that has reached eight games. Now, with Hawaii coming to the Events Center after winning four of five, the Gauchos are getting 5-points. While the wins haven't been there, the Gauchos have been playing better lately after covering two of their last three games. UCSB has been crippled by injuries and academic issues this season, but those off the court troubles have only lowered their stock in the market. Add the fact that the Gauchos have dropped four straight in this series with the 'Bows, and that should make this already unappealing choice look even more unappealing. The real value however, is in the number by the oddsmakers own admission when they made the Rainbow Warriors a -7 choice over these same Gauchos about three weeks ago in Hawaii. Now on its home court, the dog is being credited with less than a bucket and that is incredibly incorrect.
LV Traders
Boston at Chicago
Pick: Boston
Thursday's Free Play is on the Boston Celtics. They went 3-1 on their west coast road trip, and won 4 of their last 5. They are proving that THEY are the 2nd best team in the East, and 2gms out of 1st. The Celtics are shooting 49% from the floor, and 100.2ppg. Isaiah Thomas is on a tear right now, and looking to lead his team to finish strong before All Star break. Chicago is a team that is a complete mess, and you are un sure what you'll get each game. They are allowing teams to shoot 51.7% right now, and allowing 111.2ppg. Boston is the better team all around, and they will shine tonight on Primetime.
Bob Balfe
Colorado/Oregon State Over 136
Oregon State has been hit hard with the injury bug but have been impressive. Colorado is one of those teams that will pick up the pace and allow Oregon State to hang around at least for the first half. Both teams shot over 50% the first meeting this year and tonight I expect more of the same. Take the OVER.
North Dakota -5
North Dakota owns Idaho State and from top to bottom are a better program. The Vandals have so many injuries this year and just don’t have the man power to rotate enough players and are not that great at grabbing rebounds. The Hawks should cruise tonight.
Wunderdog
Pacific @ Portland
Pick: Over 126.5
Portland won the first meeting 80-76 on Dec. 29 in a game that went OVER by 16.5 points. Pacific shot 50.0 percent and the Pilots shot 47.5 percent with Alec Wintering scoring a team-leading 26 points. Wintering is now out for the season with a knee injury. Rashad Jackson scored 15 points in the Pilots' loss at Loyola Marymount on Saturday. Pacific comes in off a 64-47 loss to Santa Clara, which shot 48.9 percent. Both teams are allowing nearly 72 points per game while averaging 65 points on offense. The Tigers have gone OVER in four of their last five after a loss and five of their last seven after scoring 50 or fewer their previous game. The posted total is too low in this matchup, so play the OVER.
The Real Animal
Loyola Marymount +15
What is the incentive now for St Mary's considering they are coming off their second double-digit blowout defeat to Gonzaga this year. They look like every other team in this conference, none of which can compete w/ the Bulldogs. With virtually no shot at the conference title now the Gaels will struggle to blow out anybody the remainder of the season. Loyola-Marymount's only road loss by more than 10-points in conference play came against Gonzaga. The last three times they met St. Mary's they have lost by 12, 12, and two points and I look for more of the same tonight. St Mary's has gone six consecutive games without scoring more than 74-points and it's very difficult to blow somebody out by 16 or more with a limited offense. The Lions have only been outscored on average this year by five-points per game on the road. This looks like an overlay for St. Mary's.
Ben Burns
Colorado +1.5 -189
With the Sabres listed as large favorites on the moneyline, we're able to get the Avs at a relatively reasonable (given the value of an extra +1.5 goals) price on the puck-line. The extra +1.5 goals could easily come into play, too. While the Avs are off a 1-goal loss, the Sabres are off a 1-goal win. While the Sabres are 7-6 since 1/20, they'd be just 2-11 if asked to lay -1.5 goals in each of those games; five of the seven wins came by a single goal. The Avs know this is their best shot at a win on this road trip. Expect them to give their best effort and for that to lead to (at least) a "cover."