Free Picks for Thursday, February 23rd, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
CAL POLY AT LONG BEACH ST
PLAY: CAL POLY +8
I watch nearly every Long Beach game, and this 49ers team has simply had focus problems all season. That might be or might not be a carryover from their overly ambitious pre-conference schedule. But whatever the reason, this has been a problem for Dan Monson’s team.
I absolutely think that issue could come up here. Long Beach still has a chance to win the Big West. But Saturday’s game at UC-Davis is a much bigger game. If you look at what has taken place in league play this season, Beach has consistency performed poorly in look ahead scenarios.
As for Cal Poly, they obviously aren’t much good. But they’ve actually played a little better the last few weeks. There’s also a big revenge motive here. The Mustangs blew a huge lead in the earlier hookup and lost in overtime. I don’t know if an outright win is in the cards here, but I don’t have a problem taking this many with Cal Poly.
Scott Spreitzer
San Francisco vs. Loyola Marymount
Play: Loyola Marymount +2½
Take the loss to top-ranked Gonzaga out of the mix and you'll see LMU has played just three other home games since January 26, winning all three. The Lions lost by 10 at USF on February 4, but the game was much closer than the 74-64 loss would indicate. LMU trailed by just two points, 59-57 with roughly five minutes to go in the game. They were "this close" to stealing a road win, despite making just 38% of their FGA and making just 8 of 20 FTs. These teams play similar defense when USF is on the road and LMU is at home, both allowing about 70 ppg on 44% shooting. However, LMU is better on the offensive end in this situation and average more made FTs per game at home than the Dons do on the road. Brandon Brown is the best disher on the floor tonight and leads the Lions in scoring, while San Francisco doesn't have a single player with a 2:1 assists/turnovers ratio of those averaging at least 2 assists per game. LMU is on a 15-5-1 ATS run as an underdog of less than seven points, including a 5-0-1 ATS run when those games are played at home.
Mike Lundin
Blazers vs. Magic
Play:Blazers -2½
The Portland Trail Blazers will visit the Orlando Magic here in the first game back from the All Star break. Portland has had a really disappointing season considering the amount of talent on the team, but I like the Blazers to come out strong tonight. They're still in the hunt for a playoff spot entering Thursday only two games behind Denver at the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference, and the Blazers will seek revenge for a 115-109 loss home to Orlando back on Jan. 13.
The Blazers are just 9-20 SU and 10-19 ATS on the road, but note that the Magic are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Jim Feist
Utah vs. Colorado
Play: Under149½
Utah is strong on defense, fifth in the Pac 12 in field goal defense, fourth at defending the three-pointer. Utah is 27-13-1 on the road against a team with a winning home record, plus 2-2 under against a winning team. Colorado is 9-2 under the total at home where they Buffaloes play their best defense. And when these teams clash the Under is 13-2 in the last 15 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Hornets vs. Pistons
Play: Hornets +4½
Edges - Hornets: 4-0 ATS away on Thursdays; and 8-4 ATS in this series, including 4-1 ATS at home. Pistons: 2-14 ATS with five or more days of rest. With Detroit looking dead ahead to a revenge affair with Boston, and just 9-18 SU in games before taking in the Celtics, we recommend a 1* play on Charlotte.
Braxton Myles
St. Mary's vs. Pepperdine
Play: Over 133½
Pepperdine is coming into this game 8-3 on the OVER in home games and 4-1 OVER in their last 5 which is great news for this line today. Their is no doubt that St. Mary's is going to have a hay day scoring on Pepperdine, with Pepperdine doing great on OVER the totals at home and 75 PPG at home this season this should have no problem going OVER this small total on the day. I see this game being around about the same score as their first meeting on the season which St. Mary's walked away with of a score of 85-65.
Mike Anthony
UCLA vs. Arizona St
Play: UCLA -11
UCLA doesn't take bad shots, which is obviously very good, they are disciplined and smart. They also take care of the bigs of their opponents, which is proven with their exceptional big man, TJ Leaf. UCLA has just been terrific especially when in big games, Leaf will be the difference maker here. UCLA is a very tough team to beat. They crushed Arizona State with a 22 pt beat down the last time they met, it will be an extension from that meeting. Arizona State just doesn't have the ability to stop teams from scoring nearly as good as they will need to be able to, to beat the Bruins, even at home. UCLA wins by 16 or more points
Frank Jordan
Charlotte Hornets vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Charlotte Hornets +4
Detroit is currently in the 8th spot in the East at 27-30 and the Hornets are a coming into this game a couple games back at 24-32. Detroit is coming off a win and finished pre break winning six of 10 while Charlotte dropped four in a row and nine of 10 before the break as they seemed to wear down and needed the break in the worst way. Charlotte is struggling on the road at 8-19 while Detroit is solid at home with a 17-11 mark. In the first month of the season Detroit won big at Charlotte 112-89, in the second meeting Charlotte won this time at home 87-77, in the third meeting in the first week in January in Detroit the Pistons won a close game 115-114 despite 32 from Walker. Walker only played 20 minutes in the all-star game so he wasn't overly taxed on the break. Charlotte had some tough luck losses playing some close games during the losing streak. Look for Walker to be fresh coming out of the break along with Batum and Williams to come out strong as they steal a win in Detroit winning by 3 to kick off the post break with a big road win over a team ahead of them in the standings.
Brandon Shively
Houston vs. New Orleans
Pick: Houston
After a long break, it’s time to get back to the money and that starts Thursday Night. I am going to advise taking a closer look at the Houston Astros as a small road favorite. The Rockets have been consistently good this year when coming off a loss where they shot 45% or lower from the floor. That is the case tonight as they lost to Miami before the break, shooting only 42% from the floor.
This season, the Rockets are 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS off a loss and if they shot 45% or below from the floor. This year, when they Rockets are off a home loss (regardless of their shooting %), they are a PERFECT 4-0 SU and ATS as a road favorite the next game. They have won ALL 4 games by double digits.
The Pelicans made the news over the All Star Break by acquiring DeMarcus Cousins. This is obviously a huge pickup for the team and indicates the Pelicans want to see the Playoffs this year. This trade should allow them to do so, but I expect it to take time for the power combo to fully click. I expect the offense to struggle at times tonight with efficiency. The Pelicans are also not as deep in the backcourt after getting rid of Buddy Held and Tyreke Evans. Now a rusty Tim Frazier and an inconsistent E'twaun Moore will look to get more minutes. (The Pelicans are 0-3 ATS this year when Moore plays 30+ minutes. They are 0-6 SU their L6 home games when Frazier plays 25 minutes or more. I don’t know how many minutes they will play, but I expect a heavy load as the bench is thin right now. and SU thier L7 when Frazier plays.
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS their L5 games as a home underdog of 5 points or less. Home Dogs in the NBA that are coming off two wins as a road dog are a lousy 8-21 straight up and 10-19 ATS, covering only 34% of the time since 1996. Look for the Pelicans to try and work on their offense and for the Rockets to mash the gas and have no mercy.
Jesse Schule
Northeastern vs. Elon
Pick: Elon
Elon has been one of the hotter teams in the CAA, winning seven of their last 10 overall. One of those wins was a 51-49 win at Northeastern, who they will host tonight. The Huskies have been struggling, losing five of seven since the last time these two teams played. They have lost eight of their last 10 overall, and are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Elon's last home game was an inspiring win over the 1st place UNC Wilmington Seahawks. They won that game at the free throw line, hitting 9-of-11 attempts. They have averaged just under 80 percent from the charity stripe at home, and that could prove to be a big advantage here in this game. The Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Allen Eastman
Charlotte (-3.5) over Western Kentucky
I will go with the home team. It has been a rocky ride for Mark Price in his second year in Charlotte. But he has some good young guards. Charlotte lost to Western Kentucky in the first meeting, dropping a two-point heart breaker. That won't be the case here. Charlotte has only played two home games over the last month (compared to five road games). They have struggled on the road but been solid at home. Price's team is one of the top 3-point and free throw shooting teams in the league. And they are at their best at home. I don't think that Western Kentucky is going to be able to score enough to win this game so I will lay the points.
Strike Point Sports
Houston / New Orleans Under 227
I expect a high total for this game and I think that the public is going to be all on the 'over' now that the Pelicans made the first major trade of the season. But it is going to take some time for DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis to learn how to play together. And the Pelicans just got rid of several of their best guards, so they need to work things around there as well. The last two meetings, including the first meeting this season, have gone 'under' and the 'under' is 7-3 in the last 10 between these two teams. That has been the trend throughout this series. The 'under' is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans and the 'under' is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings between these clubs. I see that continuing with a lower-scoring game than people think.
David Banks
Arizona -8.5
Arizona (25-3, 14-1) is well on its way to its third Pac-12 regular season title in the past four seasons. The Wildcats have proved to be the cream of the conference crop. They were beaten handily by No. 7 Oregon, but that is their only conference loss. Arizona does not face the Ducks, 13-2 in conference play, again. On Thursday, the Wildcats will face USC (21-6, 8-6) for the second time this season. Lauri Markkanen hit a long 3-pointer with 33 seconds to play to give Arizona a 73-66 win over the Trojans back on Jan. 20.
Markkanen, the 7-foot freshman from Finland, is the Wildcats leading scorer and rebounder averaging 15.7 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Allonzo Trier has been back in the Arizona lineup since Jan. 21 and is adding 13.9 points and 5.1 rebounds. Head coach Sean Miller’s team is more dangerous now the Trier has returned. Rawle Alkins (11.3 ppg), Dusan Ristic (11.2 ppg), and Kobi Simmons (10.8 ppg) give the Wildcats five players who score in double figures. Ristic is another 7-footer giving Arizona size in addition to the talented guard play of Trier, Alkins, and Simmons.
The Trojans feature a roster loaded with young talent as well. They have struggled against the better talent in the conference. After going 13-0 in nonconference play, head coach Andy Enfield’s squad has losses to the Pac-12 elite including Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA twice. Chimezie Metu is a 6-11 beast who leads the Trojans in scoring (14.2 ppg) and rebounding (7.3). Bennie Boatwright is 6-10 and averages 14.1 points and 4.9 rebounds a game. Metu and Boatwright give USC the size to compete with anyone and guards Elijah Stewart (13.4 ppg) and Jordan McLaughlin (12.7 ppg) can hold their own in the backcourt. When it comes to tough opponents, USC just hasn’t been able to overcome.
Buster Sports
Portland at Orlando
Play: Under 213
The lengthy NBA break is over and the second half starts tonight with a small schedule of 6 games on tap. Tonight the Magic start the second half of the season without Serge Ibaka. The first game they played without him they scored 79 points at home against the Spurs. Orlando is one of the worse teams in the league in points per game sitting 29th out of the 30 clubs. This is the first game for both these clubs in over a week and we believe both teams will take a while to shake off the rust. The total is set at 213 at the time of this writing and we are going with the UNDER here. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 8-1 in the Magic's last 9 home games and the fact that the UNDER is 9-4 in the Trail Blazers last 13 games playing on 3 or more days rest.