Free Picks for Thursday, February 2nd, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Dave Cokin
Hawaii +3.5
Not gonna read much into Hawaii blowout win over UCSB, as the Gauchos are absolutely terrible. But while they aren't good, i think Hawaii could show some improvement down the stretch, as the youth on this team matures a bit. Riverside surprisingly won four straight but that ended last game against Northridge, and I'm of the opinion the Highlanders are more likely to begin reverting to their seemingly eternal mediocre form. Figures pretty close the way I see it, but I like the revenge motive and getting more than one possession is enough to get me on Hawaii.
John Martin
Spurs -14½
The Philadelphia 76ers are starting to come back down to earth. They have lost three of their last four, including a 95-113 road loss at Dallas last night. So not only will they be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but they'll also be playing their 4th game in 5 days. Making matters worse for them is that they are expected to be without their best player in Joel Embiid again tonight. The Spurs will be focused because they lost two straight by blowing double-digit halftime leads before thumping the Thunder 108-94 at home on Tuesday. The Spurs are 10-0 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the 76ers. They are 18-1 in straight up in their last 19 home meetings.
Dave Price
Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Play: Michigan State +1
The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers finally ended their 5-game losing streak with an upset home victory over Purdue as 7-point dogs on Sunday. Now the Huskers are clearly in a letdown spot off their biggest win of the season. I think they are running into Michigan State at the wrong time as the Spartans always improve as the season goes on under Tom Izzo, and they're coming off a solid 70-62 home victory over the Michigan Wolverines. The Spartans are going to be a dangerous team moving forward and they should not be dogs here. They can't afford losses after their poor start against a brutal schedule, and they won't be taking Nebraska lightly after losing the past two meetings with the Huskers by a combined 3 points. Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in February games over the last 2 seasons. The Huskers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Spartans are 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last 2 seasons.
Jack Jones
Pepperdine vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -11
San Francisco is probably the third-best team in the WCC Conference behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's. The Dons are 15-8 on the season and continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers. They have gone 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
The only non-cover came in a 20-point road loss at St. Mary's in a game that was tied at halftime. They covered in losses to St. Mary's and BYU, while beating up on the weaker competition they've faced during this stretch. They beat Pacific by 21 at home, Portland by 25 at home, San Diego by 17 on the road and Pacific by 21 on the road.
Now the Dons are up against the worst team in the WCC in Pepperdine. The Waves are just 6-16 on the season, including 0-9 in true road games. They are getting outscored by nearly 18 points per game on the road this season. They are coming off a 47-point home loss to Gonzaga and won't be very competitive tonight, either.
San Francisco is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference opponent. The Waves are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Pepperdine is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games. The Dons are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Stephen Nover
Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Play: Michigan State +1
Michigan State has a history under Tom Izzo of starting to peak once the second half of the season gets rolling. I see a buy sign now on the 13-9 Spartans after their 70-62 home win against Michigan this past Sunday. It's not too much to ask the Spartans to defeat Nebraska, which is a game under .500 both in the Big Ten and overall. The Spartans are the stronger defensive team, more athletic and have better outside shooters than the Cornhuskers. Michigan State is shooting 47.5 percent from the floor while Nebraska is shooting 42.3 percent from the field. Nebraska is in a letdown spot after snapping a five-game losing streak with a stunning 83-80 home victory against 20th-ranked Purdue this past Sunday. The Spartans have triple revenge and are the healthier team. The Cornhuskers have been without their third-leading scorer forward Ed Morrow for the past five games due to a stress reaction in his right foot. Guard Tai Webster, the team's top scorer, rolled an ankle against Purdue and center Jordy Tshimanga is battling the flu. There's a chance all three could play, but how effective would they be? The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games and 17-6 ATS during their last 23 Big Ten games. Nebraska has failed to cover in six of its last eight home contests. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover opened this month with an easy winner backing underdog Florida State against Miami on Wednesday. The Seminoles won by 18 points.
Bob Harvey
Lakers vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards -11
The Washington Wizards look to extend their winning streak to six games when they host the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers (17-34, 23-27 ATS)have lost 10 straight road games road games but is heading out for the current trip with some momentum after averaged 86.3 points over its last three road games before returning home for a 120-116 win over the Denver Nuggets. D'Angelo Russell handed out a career-high 10 assists and rookie Ivica Zubac added a season-high 17 points.
The Wizards (28-20, 29-19 ATS) have won 12 of their last 14 games and are averaging 111 points in that span. Washington shot 55.7 percent from the floor with six players scoring in double figures. Bradley Beal netted 28 points in Tuesday's 117-101 triumph over the New York Knicks. It was Washington’s 15th straight home win.
The Lakers are 11-4-1 ATS in the last 15 series meetings and 4-1 ATS in their five games overall. However LA is 2-6 in its last 8 road games. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games. The road team is 9-3-1 in the past 13 games.
The Lakers are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four road games and 4-1 to the low side in their past five overall. LA is 20-8 to the UNDER in its last 29 against the NBA Southeast.
3G-Sports
Hawks vs. Rockets
Play: Over 222
Atlanta Dwight Howard is an exciting player who makes things happen when he is on the court doing what he does, rebound and get above the rim. His ability to get separation from his defender is excellent - the Hawks will keep him involved from the start matched up vs the 25th ranked defense of Houston. Howard is hitting his stride and will have himself a day. Houston needs to get their rim protection game going in the right direction, because they have struggled defending the rack this season - it isn't going to be enough. They have not attacked the paint as well as they would like to be, as the numbers indicate. Houston have also struggled with staying focused getting easy looks at the bucket, at times - with just a 29th ranked 2 pt shooting attempts this season so far, putting them in the bottom half of the league. Considering the Hawks play on Wednesday and the Rockets make 3's at an unbeleivveable clip.
Jim Feist
Hawaii at Cal Riverside
Pick: Under
Hawaii just finished up a long homestand and now heads out on the road a long way from home. Their last two road games the Warriors scored 56 and 64 points. The Under is 6-2 in the Warriors last 8 games as an underdog. UC Riverside is off a home game where they slowed the pace down, losing 63-59, going under the total by 24 points. Riverside is 18-7-1 under the total at home and on a 10-2 run under overall.
Robert Ferringo
Marshall (-8 ) over Southern Mississippi
We hit with Marshall last week. Let's go to the well until the well is dry. Marshall is coming off its worst game of the year, a pathetic 23-point loss as a 13-point favorite against UTEP last Saturday. This Marshall team had been showing some serious signs of life in the CUSA race before that came crashing down on them. However, I think the Thundering Herd will be able to rebound here against lowly Southern Miss. Marshall has had some moments on the road this year, including near-misses against Cincinnati and Pitt as well as easy double-digit league wins against FAU and FIU. They should be able to do the same against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are No. 347 in the country in scoring, No. 339 in shooting (they make just 39.1 percent of their shots), and No. 343 in 3-point shooting (28.8 percent as a team). Quite simply, this team can't score enough to keep up with Marshall's high-octane offense. And it is not as if Southern Miss is some slow-down, solid defensive grinder. They play at a pretty medium tempo, and their defense doesn't rank higher than No. 161 in any major category. Marshall is a solid 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games, and they've only lost back-to-back games at the window one time all year. I think they will overpower the Golden Eagles here.
Teddy Covers
Los Angeles at Washington -11
Play: Washington -11
People are FINALLY starting to notice, and this streak will not go on forever. But my clients and I have cashed in repeatedly backing the Washington Wizards throughout their 15-0 SU, 14-1 ATS run at home over the past eight weeks. And there’s absolutely no reason to jump off this profit train until we’ve seen legitimate evidence that the markets have caught up with Washington’s improved play. So far, the markets haven’t made the appropriate adjustments.
Washington wasn’t very good in November, opening the season with eight losses in their first ten games. They weren’t much better in their next ten games, going 5-5 SU, including losses to the likes of Orlando and Miami. On the heels of last year’s disappointing campaign, that was all the betting markets needed to see – Washington’s power rating was set in near bottom feeder range, a below average NBA team.
The results don’t lie. Since that 7-13 SU and ATS start, Washington is 21-7 SU, 22-6 ATS – the best SU record in the East and the best pointspread record in the league. The Wizards don’t get many national TV games, they’re not a well-respected franchise after decades of futility, and the betting markets, quite frankly, have been sleeping on the Wizards throughout this impressive turnaround. Now rested and ready (the Wizards are 3-7 SU on the second night of back-to-backs, lacking depth, but 25-13 SU in their other 38 games), I’m expecting another strong effort from the Wizards tonight
These are the quotes of a bet-on team. Bradley Beal: “We're a totally different team. In every way. Our confidence, our swag as a team. Everything is a lot better.” More Beal: “I think the joy that we have, the fun that we have is amazing. It's positive in there and we want nothing but the best for one another. There is great camaraderie, and we just take it all on the floor."
Head coach Scott Brooks: “That means we're doing something good the last two months. Guys are playing well. We're very confident, but we're not overconfident. We understand that we've got to keep plugging along and playing for each other." I have NO hesitation continuing to ride the best moneymaker in the league.
The Lakers are likely to be playing without Julius Randle(pneumonia) again tonight. And LA is the opposite of Washington in one key regard. The Lakers opened up the season 10-10 in their first twenty games, setting the baseline betting market power rating for this team a good notch or two too high. Since that time, they are 7-24; every bit the bottom feeder they were last year.
LA is coming off a rare win, knocking off the Nuggets on Tuesday. Following their last 11 SU victories, LA is 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS in their next game, consistently letting down off a strong performance. I’m not expecting max effort or execution from this last place team as they open their East Coast road trip tonight.
Ian Cameron
Toronto at St. Louis
Play:St. Louis -120
The St. Louis Blues relieved head coach Ken Hitchcock of his duties following a lethargic 5-3 home loss to the Winnipeg Jets. St. Louis has been playing mediocre hockey for the better part of the last month including a recent 1-5 slide. Most of the problems had little to do with coaching but rather a lack of effort and intensity. Lack of a consistent puck stopper in net, particularly Jake Allen, also contributed. Former Minnesota head coach Mike Yeo will take over behind the bench. He was slated to take over as head coach next season after Ken Hitchcock’s retirement but that process has been sped up. I expect the typical “step up” effort from St. Louis following the coaching change which is a common occurrence in the NHL. Look no further than the NY Islanders who have gone 5-0-1 since dismissing head coach Jack Capuano. Toronto is coming off their own bad performance in a 6-3 loss in Dallas on Tuesday. The defense has certainly had some problems since the injury to their top blue liner Morgan Rielly. Replacing his minutes on the ice and impact on the game in all situations has been something the Leafs have had a difficult time figuring out. The Leafs have improved significantly this season but they are going through a bit of a rough patch; 2-4 in their last six games and the only two wins came against slumping Detroit and Calgary. The spot and price is right to back St. Louis tonight as a small home favorite.
Chris Jordan
Taking a little alternate route for tonight's freebie, as I'm on the ice with the St. Louis Blues over the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Sounds to me as if the upper brass is not standing for sub-par play any longer in St. Louis. Coach Ken Hitchcock was fired Wednesday, and the funny thing is general manager Doug Armstrong made it clear he was more upset with the players.
Nevertheless, it starts at the top. And Hitchcock was given his papers.
Now, those players Armstrong is disgruntled with are going to have to prove they belong to stay, as coach Mike Yeo starts a new era on the bench.
I know the Blues have lost five of their last six games, including their four home games in regulation. But since they're involved in a tight race for a wild-card spot in the Western Conference, sitting three points out of third in the Central Division, I have to believe we may see their best overall performance in a month, tonight against Toronto, which is in off a 6-3 loss in Dallas on Tuesday night.
Your free winner is on the St. Louis Blues, as they'll have an entirely different attitude tonight - a winning one.
4* BLUES
Brad Wilton
Thursday's comp play is the Wizards over the Lakers.
Prices growing to back Washington these days, but with the Wizards in the midst of a 15 game home winning streak, and they have won their last 5 games overall heading into this Thursday night clash.
The Wizards have covered 10 straight as well, so look for them to put this Lakers team in their rear-view mirror, and keep them there come the final buzzer.
Los Angeles has dropped 8 of their last 10 games, but Luke Walton's team has indeed been able to cover in each of their last 3 - all as the underdog.
Still, Washington has been able to win 6 of the last 7 in the series, and they have covered in 3 of the last 5 series meetings.
Wizards simply streaking right now, and tonight is not the night to pick against them.
4* WASHINGTON
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on the Philadelphia 76ers, catching far too many points against the San Antonio Spurs.
If there's one thing I've observed - along with many others - during the first half of the season, it the always contending Spurs seem to struggle with sub-.500 teams. I'm not sure why, but the Spurs overlook the teams they're supposed to demolish.
Of San Antonio's 11 losses, six of them came against teams with losing records.
Enter the 76ers, who played their best basketball of the season during the month of January. Now, Philadelphia is in after last night's 113-95 loss to surging Dallas, but the Sixers were also up by as many as nine points in the first half, and trailed by merely two (62-60) midway through the third.
Something tells me we're going to see a pissed off 76ers team, which finished January with a 10-5 record, its best month since going 13-4 in January 2012.
Yes, I know Joel Embiid didn't make the trip to Texas after suffering a bruised left knee Jan. 20, but he also hasn't played in six of the past seven games. And Philadelphia is 11-4 since Dec. 30.
Give me the big underdog in this one.
1* 76ERS