Eric Schroeder
My free play will be on the Los Angeles Clippers, who will take advantage of the Golden State Warriors, who were up by 32 points last night, and ended up beating the Charlotte Hornets by 15. Sure, the Warriors' starters got some rest last night, but the Clippers are going to attack them from jump and take advantage of what I perceive to be a tired basketball team.
The Warriors have eight straight wins over the Clippers, including the past four meetings at Staples. But that doesn't mean a thing to me, especially when you're offering me this many points. The Clippers are likely still stinging from last Saturday, when Golden State rolled to a 144-98 home rout - the most points allowed by the Clippers this season.
The Clippers are coming off a 124-114 win over Suns in Phoenix on Tuesday, and will be rested after taking last night off.
After this game, the Clippers head back on the road for five more games, beginning Sunday against the Boston Celtics. This will be treated as a must-win.
Take the home pup.
5* CLIPPERS
STEVE JANUS
Warriors vs. Clippers
Play: Warriors -9
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points. This system is 28-4 (88%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons.
BRANDON LEE
Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska +1
I'm going to back the Cornhuskers at home here against the Spartans. This is just not the same level of Michigan State team as what we are use to. Sure they are coming in off a 70-62 win over in-state rival Michigan, but that came at home and the Spartans are just 3-7 on the road with losses to Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana away from home in Big Ten play. Nebraska snapped a 5-game losing streak with a 83-80 win over Purdue at home as a 7-point dog and this team is better than people think, just look at their road wins at Maryland and Indiana (before injuries). I expect a close came here with Nebraska pulling out the win.
RAY MONOHAN
Gonzaga vs. BYU
Play: BYU +10
The Bulldogs have been flying under the radar this season despite being in the top 10, but now they have a giant target on their backs after getting announced as the number 1 team in the nation.
This BYU team is no pushover.
The Cougars are a solid 17-6 and are 12-1 at home this year.
This place is going to have an extra buzz to it, given the #1 team coming in.
Some trends to note. BYU are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Thu. games. Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
BYU is going to control the tempo here and if they can keep this crowd in it early, a lot of pressure and nerves falls on the Bulldogs here.
JIMMY BOYD
Lakers vs. Wizards
Play: Lakers +11
The Wizards are a difficult team to bet against right now, as Washington has covered in 10 straight games. However, I think the books are finally starting to adjust their lines on them and inflate the odds. The Wizards are 22-9 since Dec. 1st, yet have only been a double-digit favorite twice during this stretch and favored by more than 7 points only 4 times. Now we catch them laying 11-points to the Lakers after covering as an 8-point favorite in a 117-101 win at home over the Knicks.
Los Angeles has been hit or miss all season, but are trending in the right direction right now. The Lakers have covered 3 straight and 4 of their last 5. They also come in off a 120-116 win at home over the Nuggets, where they shot a scorching 52.8% from the field. Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team with a winning record and I think they do more than enough here to cover this big spread.
MATT JOSEPHS
Northeastern vs. William & Mary
Play: William & Mary -4
The Tribe wrap up a nice stretch at home against Northeastern on Thursday. William and Mary lost in Boston 84-64 back on New Year's Eve in a game that wasn't even really that close. The Huskies hit nine three pointers and shot nearly 60% from the field. They are 5-7 on the road, but 4-5 in lined games this season and traditionally have had their problems away from home. The Tribe are 10-0 at home averaging 93.6 points per game while holding opponents to just under 70. They've won eight of their last nine at home in this series covering six of those games.
DAVE PRICE
Michigan State vs. Nebraska
Play: Michigan State +1
The Key: The Nebraska Cornhuskers finally ended their 5-game losing streak with an upset home victory over Purdue as 7-point dogs on Sunday. Now the Huskers are clearly in a letdown spot off their biggest win of the season. I think they are running into Michigan State at the wrong time as the Spartans always improve as the season goes on under Tom Izzo, and they're coming off a solid 70-62 home victory over the Michigan Wolverines. The Spartans are going to be a dangerous team moving forward and they should not be dogs here. They can't afford losses after their poor start against a brutal schedule, and they won't be taking Nebraska lightly after losing the past two meetings with the Huskers by a combined 3 points. Michigan State is 6-0 ATS in February games over the last 2 seasons. The Huskers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games off an upset win as a home underdog. The Spartans are 9-1 ATS versus teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last 2 seasons.
MIKE ANTHONY
Philadelphia vs. San Antonio
Play: Under 213
Philadelphia got burned by the San Antonio rugged defensive game when they played San Antonio the last time, 119-68. There hasn't been any reason to think this will change in this matchup. San Antonio defends really well - and Philly doesn't. San Antonio is enjoying another big year out of their guys - and their superstar, Kawhi Leonard, has been more than adequate, his all around game is outstanding and his 25ppg is always needed. San Antonio has been excellent with stopping teams from doing what they want to do on the court and are ranked 2nd in opponents ppg this year - that is an awful lot to handle for Philadelphia. If the 76ers are going to keep it close, they are going to have to play some solid defense.
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY -1½ +215 over Ottawa
The Senators blew a 4-2 lead in Florida and Mike Condon was horrible in a 5-4 loss in their first game back after the break. That’s just one game and we’re not going to put a lot of weight on one loss, especially since the Sens have bounced back nicely from poor efforts all year long. However, it’s now crunch time and this is the time of year that the cream rises to the top. In that regard, Ottawa is not the cream of the crop or even close to it. The Senators are a dangerous team because of their ability to find the back of the net but it’s every other area that is a major concern. The Sens Corsi For % is 47.91% (25th), which is in the same territory as the Avalanche, Sabres, Devils, and Coyotes. What that means is that Ottawa is playing without the puck far too often to be a top-10 team and therefore attrition is inevitable. They are not a top-10 team.
Tampa Bay has not played well recently. Including Tuesday’s loss to Boston, the Lightning have a 3-5-2 record over their last 10 games. They’ve only managed to score 23 goals while allowing 29. Compare that to how Ottawa has been over their past 10 and you’ll see that they have nearly doubled the Bolts in scoring while allowing one less goal. Thing is, the Bolts are playing so much better than their record indicates while the Sens are playing worse. Tampa’s problems all stem from Ben Bishop being one of the NHL’s worst goaltenders (something we warned you about before). You see, soft goals are deflating. They take away the hard work that the players were putting in up to that point and it’s just so hard to rebound from a bad goal or get one’s intensity back. Ben Bishop has been horrible and the rumors are that he’s on the block. The Bolts will now sit him because if they play him and he’s bad, his trade value goes down. Enter Andrei Vasilevskiy, the goaltender that almost single handily knocked the Penguins out of the playoffs last year in a seven-game series after Bishop was hurt early in Game 1.
The Lightning can still score in the top half of the league, scoring 139 goals (13th) and maintaining a top 10 power play at 22.3% (6th). Tampa still plays a strong possession game, managing a 50.94% Corsi For % (10th) and they have done that with several key players missing significant time. Steven Stamkos is still out but the Lightning are otherwise healthier now than they have been all year. Tampa’s third line of Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson and Brayden Point would be a top line on many teams in this league. This is a deep and talented team that has suffered the effects of poor goaltending but that part of their troubles may now be over. If Tampa has a run in them, it will start right here and we absolutely trust that they do.
DALLAS -1½ +220 over Winnipeg
The Stars 6-3 victory over the Maple Leafs may look pretty on paper but it was anything but. Dallas scored early and often and knocked out Fredrick Andersen in the first period by scoring three times on its first eight shots. Dallas would go on to get outshot in that game, 43-20. However, they did have a 5-1 lead and the closest Toronto ever came within was three goals so Dallas was not in attack mode. It was a much-needed positive start to the second half for Dallas, who now sit just three points back of the final Wild Card spot. At the moment, the Stars and Jets are deadlocked at 52 points apiece. While the Stars have two games in hand, tonight’s game will help determine a lot in the standings. There are currently six teams fighting for the final two playoff spots in the West and the Stars and Jets are the two currently dwelling in the cellar. The last time the Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets squared off, the Jets walked away with a crushing 8-2 victory. That came back on November 8. There should definitely be some bad blood brewing but one thing is for sure: this game is going to be an enthralling one to watch and will have some pretty drastic consequences for the loser. The question now becomes, which team can take the heat and rise to the occasion?
We have to trust the Stars more because we have seen this act far too often from the Jets. When the spotlight is brightest, Winnipeg takes five steps backward. Yes indeed the Jets have won two straight and scored five times both games but the last time they won three straight was last season. That’s right, the Jets have yet to win three straight games this entire year but it gets even worse. The Jets are 0-14 this season against top-10 competition. While the Stars are not a top-10 team, Winnipeg’s record against the best reveals that when the going gets tough, they seldom show up. This is a massive game and the Jets’ desperate move to call up third stringer Andrej Pavelec has yet to backfire. It’s inevitable that Pavelec and this strategy will implode soon enough. Pavelec comes in with a weak .893 save percentage but it’s been masked by some Jets' victories. After getting whacked by Winnipeg in embarrassing fashion 2½ months ago, there is no way that the Stars don’t show up here in this important home game.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAL POLY -1 over UC Davis
This situation conforms to what we normally like to target overall. If you recall, last week we were in on UC Davis as an outright dog when they hosted cross-state rival UC Irvine and pulled off the upset against the Anteaters. Entering the game, the two were locked in a draw for the Big West lead but Irvine was the team that many bracketologists had given the nod to be the prognosticated representative in the Men’s Basketball Tournament in March. Furthermore, many pundits are now hopping aboard the Aggie bandwagon and calling for Davis to be the #16 seed in the Big Dance as opposed to Irvine a week ago. Our position remains to hop off teams when most are hopping on.
Davis has not taken the court since this win, so we have yet to see if this team is truly prone for a hangover after pulling off a tremendous win against the conference frontrunner. Results of this caliber often yield an overreaction and set up teams like Davis for a huge letdown in their follow up. We are not advocates of laying road points in a conference as weak as the Big West and Cal Poly in particular reinforces our stance, as they defeated Irvine by thirteen-points as a thirteen-point home pup in the game previous to Irvine’s encounter with Davis. This incident served as prime rationale for us to target Irvine with Davis.
Now Davis sports the target on their back when just a week ago they were the predator. Cal Poly remains a lowly 6-15 team nestled in the lower tier of the Big West. They will enter this contest with nothing to lose but exuberant at the chance to wrestle with one of the big dogs of this league on their own court. They have the proven ability to defeat these teams outright too. Davis and Cal Poly have already met once this year on Davis’ court but the Aggies were on the come-up and even then they were spotting more points than required to the Mustangs, as they won 68-64 although they were favored by seven. Davis is now the new big kid on the block, as they are in the pole position but we have yet to see how they handle this position. On Groundhog’s Day, UC Davis may very well see their shadow and stumble into a trap as a result.
NOTE: We suspect this line will move and Davis may be favored later in the day, thus, we'll hold off until later and wait for a better number. We will update this later, as to whether it's an offical play or not and tweet it out when we do.
MILWAUKEE +9½ over Valparaiso
The Crusaders are the class of the Horizon League and it almost appears as a formality for them to win this conference and earn an automatic bid to the Madness. Valpo has won seven in a row and nine of its last 10 games. They are also 8-1 in the conference. They have eight games left after this one and they’ll be favored in all of them and by double digits in most. The Crusaders can even be accused of being bored. Now this team will play in Milwaukee against a team that is 4-6 in the conference, that has no chance of catching them, that is third last in the conference and that is 8-15 overall. Motivation, complacency or both should be a big concern for those considering spotting the points. The Crusaders only have one more slight concern on their docket and that concern comes in the form of the Green Bay Phoenix, a team that they’ll travel to and play on Saturday after this one. Green Bay is 7-3 in the conference and just one win behind the Crusaders. Again, this is a seriously bad situational spot for a team as bored as the Crusaders.
What does Milwaukee have to look forward to? The Panthers only chance of getting into the Dance is to win the Conference Championship but to do so, they are very likely going to have to go through Valpo. The first step to that goal would be to put some doubt in the minds of the Crusaders and to do that, the Panthers are going to have to play their hearts out here. While it may be a lot to ask them to win outright, it sure as hell is not a lot to ask them to play their hearts out. The Panthers rarely put forth a weak effort. They’re much better than their record indicates and it’s worth noting that their out-of-conference schedule ranked 90th in the country (Valpo’s ranked 166). Milwaukee is rarely out of a game too. The Panthers are coming off an OT loss to Oakland. Their last four games have been decided by either one point or in OT. Six games back, they lost to Wright State by just three. Valparaiso has won the last four meetings against Milwaukee, but a lot of those games were close, including the last meeting that went into overtime. The Panthers find ways to hang around and they figure to be the much more motivated team here in a more favorable spot.
Coll of Charleston +8 over UNC-WILMINGTON
On paper, the Seahawks seem to be a runaway train, as they are the sole team with 20 wins in the Colonial Athletic Association and have earned accolades as one of the top mid-major programs in all the land. UNCW has garnished a superbly low RPI and as such phenomenon manifest, the expectations inflate and when those expectations inflate, premiums begin to be assessed on anyone looking to buy in on the Seahawks. The stock on this host is through the roof but with this heightened anticipation, Head Coach Kevin Keatts tweeted out that it only confirms the Seahawks are on top. Humble, the coach is not, which has a way of motivating the opposition. Seemingly with a commanding lead for the most part over the rest of the league, Wilmington is well on their way to greener pastures. There is one team though that can knock them off the hill at this point: the College of Charleston and now UNCW will spot that team inflated points.
Though the Cougars are 17-6 on the year, they are 8-2 in the CAA, just one game behind the Seahawks. The two teams met in Charleston a couple weeks ago where Wilmington would win by six and successfully cover as a 3½-point favorite. For Charleston, a loss here more or less sinks any chance of the Cougars getting to the top of the league standings, as a defeat essentially puts them three games behind the Seahawks.
UNCW has won their last eight against C of C but three of those victories had to be earned in overtime. Five of those eight victories were settled by six points or less. The point we are trying to make here is that Charleston has played this team tough; they just have not been able to get over the hump. Nevertheless, the Cougars have quite an outstanding defense to curtail Wilmington’s catalytic offense. The Cougars also have the perfect antidote to keep themselves in this game and come in under the number or win outright. This is a team with the 328th ranked tempo quotient, which means they like to slow the game down to a crawl. They also own the 36th most efficient defense in America, as the Cougars only permit opponents to score an average of 61.7 points per game (12th nationally) and they are one of the best in shutting down the three (ranked 4th nationally in opponent three-point field goal percentage). The Cougars committed 11 uncharacteristic turnovers in their loss to the Seahawks two weeks ago. They did a great job against the Seahawks pressure and they didn’t shoot very well. Not playing their best or even close to it, Charleston’s defense kept them in it with a chance to win it. That’s not the type of team we like to spot this many points to.
To summarize, the Cougars like to play a slow and methodical game and wear down finesse and offense-oriented teams like Wilmington. Do not be surprised if the Seahawks find themselves in a dogfight late in the second half while being forced to claw and scratch their way out of trouble. Take the inflated points.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio
The set-up: Only the 42-7 Golden State Warriors own a better record than the 37-11 San Antonio Spurs but six of the Spurs' 11 defeats have come to sub-.500 teams (not typical for a Popovich-coached team). The Spurs will look to avoid a similar slip-up tonight, when the 18-30 Philadelphia 76ers visit AT&T Center.
An 18-30 record may not seem like much but the 76ers have shown a great deal of improvement this season, after they won just 10 games last year. In fact, they finished January with a 10-5 record, their best month since going 13-4 in January 2012. However, rookie of the year favorite Joel Embiid (20.2 & 7.8 ) didn't make the trip to Texas. He suffered a bruised left knee Jan. 20 and hasn't played in six of the past seven games. Forward Ersan Ilyasova (15.3 & 6.1) has played very well alongside of Embiid and Jahlil Okafor (11.5 & 4.7) has been solid but far from as good as the team had hoped. Of course, the entire league is hoping that last year's No. 1 overall pick, Ben Simmons, just could make his first appearance after the All Star break. However, as we've seen before, Philly will not rush their young stars onto the court.
The Spurs ended a two-game slide on Tuesday with a 108-94 home win over OKC. Kawhi Leonard (25.6 & 5.8 ) scored 36 points and grabbed eight rebounds but the Spurs' bench also played a big role. After San Antonio had squandered an 18-point lead over an 'ugly' seven-minute stretch, the Spurs' reserves responded by outscoring OKC 15-2 and once the starters returned, the Thunder had no answer. Aldridge (17.7 & 7.2) plays like an All Star but the team's terrific depth and balance which makes it so good. Seven players contribute between 6.3 and 11.7 PPG. Pau Gasol (11.7 & 7.9) has been the leader of that group but will be out until March with an injury but expect that the 7-0 Dedmon will get more time, after averaging 4.8 & 5.8 on about 16 MPG, so far.
This is a brutally tough spot for Philly, playing on back-to-back nights AND without Embiid. With all hands on deck, the 76ers are averaging only 100.8 PPG (25th) on shooting 44.1% shooting (26th). Meanwhile, the Spurs rank second in both points allowed (99.2) and opponents' FG percentage (44.5%). Throw in the fact that the Spurs have won 10 straight against Philadelphia and have won 11 consecutive home games them. Lay the points.
Will Rogers
Atlanta vs. Houston
Pick: Atlanta
The set-up: The 28-21 Atlanta Hawks are in Houston tonight to face the 36-16 Rockets. Dwight Howard's reception in Houston figures to be rather chilly, as the center spent the past three seasons in Houston and it didn't end well amid constant turmoil that included chatter that star guard James Harden didn't like playing with Howard.
Atlanta: Howard signed a three-year, $70.5 million free-agent deal with the Hawks and and has avergaed 13.6 & 12.8 . He excelled against the Rockets earlier this season when he recorded 20 points and 15 rebounds in Atlanta's 112-97 home victory back on Nov. 5. He already has 31 double-doubles this season after having 38 in his final season with Houston. He had a streak of five straight double-doubles halted when he had six points and 11 rebounds in Wednesday's 116-93 loss to the Miami Heat. Howard teams with PF Paul Millsap (17.9 & 8.2) up front, while Dennis Schroder (17.4 & 6.3 APG) has capably stepped in as the team's starting PG, after Atlanta traded Jeff Teague.
Houston: Harden has thrived without Howard around, averaging 28.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG and 11.5 APG. However, he is dealing with a knee injury and has been limited to just 12.5 PPG on 6-of-26 shooting over the past two games. That said, he indicated he plans to play against the Hawks (would be a shock if he missed). The Rockets are the NBA's second-highest scoring team, averaging 114.1 PPG.
The pick: The Hawks have alternated wins and losses for six games and are 6-5 over their past 11. Their inconsistency has been a season-long issue and remains mystifying. Meanwhile, the Rockets won 20 of 22 games from Dec. 1 through Jan. 10 but are now playing much like the Hawks, having gone 5-7 their last 12. I'm taking the points.
Power Sports
Cal St. Fullerton vs. UC Santa Barbara
Pick: Santa Barbara
For many years, UCSB was one of the strongest members of the Big West Conference. That's clearly not the case this year though; the Gauchos come into Saturday w/ a terrible 3-16 straight up record and have dropped four in a row. Fortunately, however, they draw an opponent that hasn't been playing a whole lot better. CS Fullerton had lost three in a row before recording a rare win its last time out, 81-71 over Cal Poly. That's the same opponent that accounts for UCSB's last win as well. Good value on the home side here.
It's been a long time since CS Fullerton turned in B2B strong efforts in conference play. Over the L3 seasons, they are 0-6 ATS off a conference win. They are 25-46 ATS in all lined games since the start of the 2014-15 season, including a 12-28 mark in Big West play. They are 0-4 vs. UCSB during that time.
Road games have not gone well for CS Fullerton either. They are 1-6 straight up on oppponents courts this year, giving up an average of 86 PPG. Thus, the idea that they'd be favored here, even by the slightest amount, seems a bit far-fetched.
Wunderdog
Memphis @ South Florida
Pick: Memphis -13.5
South Florida is in a major tailspin with nine losses in a row, including a 2-7 ATS mark. The Bulls lost 94-53 at Cincinnati while not even coming close to a 25-point spread and that followed an 81-60 loss to Connecticut as a 7.5-point dog. The Bulls shot just 33.3 percent against the Bearcats with Michael Bibby one of only two players in double figures with 17 points. Memphis has won seven of its last nine games, including 57-50 over East Carolina on Saturday in spite of shooting only 30.3 percent. The Tigers' defense allowed the Pirates just a 32.7 shooting percentage and 2-of-17 from three-point range. Memphis won the first meeting 62-56 on Jan. 14, but South Florida appears to have gotten even worse since that encounter. The Bulls are 18-43-1 ATS their last 62 home contests and 8-20-1 ATS as home underdogs. Memphis is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine games at South Florida.
David Banks
Gonzaga Bulldogs @ BYU Cougars
Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs -8
College basketball’s lone remaining unbeaten takes its 22-0 record on the road when West Coast Conference leader Gonzaga travels to BYU on Thursday night. The Zags, the nation’s new No. 1, are unbeaten for a variety of reasons and it starts with defense. Head coach Mark Few’s team is one of the nation’s best on the defensive end allowing just 61.4 points (9th in the country) per game. Another reason is that the Zags can score too. Gonzaga averages 85.2 points per game, 13th-best among Division I schools. Four players – Nigel Williams-Goss, Przemek Karnowski, Zach Collins, and Jordan Matthews – average in double figures and two more, Johnathan Williams and Josh Perkins average at least nine points a game.
BYU is hoping that playing at home can help the Cougars claim the upset. BYU is 16-7 and 7-3 in the WCC. A win over Gonzaga would certainly strengthen the Cougars’ resume in terms of the NCAA tournament. BYU doesn’t have a signature win and a victory over the nation’s No. 3 team would give them one. It will be up to forward Eric Mika to lead the Cougars to a win. Mika averages 20.8 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, both tops for BYU. Guards Nick Emery and T.J. Haws add 13.9 and 13.7 points, respectively.
The Cougars do not have the depth of Gonzaga. Williams-Goss averages 14.8 points and 5.6 rebounds. He also dishes out nearly five assists per game and could be the WCC’s best player. Karnowski is big – 7-foot-1 – and intimidating inside. The senior from Poland averages 12.5 points and 5.4 rebounds. Collins and Mathews add nearly 11 points a game each and Few plays eight players at least 14 minutes a game. The Zags can extend their winning streak to 23 and it is very possible that they could run the table. They face No. 21 St. Mary’s on Feb. 11.