Buster Sports
Colorado at Stanford
Play: Colorado +2
The Colorado Buffaloes have had a very disappointing season as they sit 10th in the PAC 12 Conference. Coming into the start of the season they were picked 4th/5th and maybe had a shot at the Big Dance. The only way that happens now is if they can win the PAC 12 tourney. The Buffaloes are trying to turn things around after starting 0-7 in Conference play as they have won 2 games in a row. The last game was a HUGE victory over Number 13 Oregon. Stanford has played 3 straight road games and has lost their last 2. Stanford has had trouble with the Buffaloes for years and has now lost 6 in a row. In every one of those games they have lost ATS as well. We think the wrong team is favored here as our numbers have Colorado at 1 1/2. We are taking the points as Colorado wins OR.
Bryan Leonard
Loyola Marymount at San Diego
Play: San Diego +1.5
Another game where we don’t agree with the early line move. We make San Diego as a 2.9 point favorite here which gives us a solid edge in this west coast matchup. While the Lions are 3-5 SU on the road the largest win was by just three points. LM does have revenge for a 69-62 home loss two weeks ago, but that line favored the Lions by 6 1/2 points. With the change of venue this line should be San Diego by 1 1/2 points. Is the revenge factor big enough for this line move? We don’t think so.
Oskeim Sports
Pepperdine at San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -10
This game has blowout written all over it as Pepperdine is 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS on the road this season where it's allowing 83.2 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 43.5% from beyond the arc.
The Waves' defense is 4.7 points per game worse than average overall (80.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average just 75.6 points per game) with teams making 48.1% of their field goal attempts and 41.5% of their three-pointers against Pepperdine.
The Dons are 9-3 SU at home this season where they are averaging 77.9 points per game on 48,6% shooting from the floor and 37.9% from beyond the arc.
San Francisco has won four of its last five games and has covered the point spread in six of its last seven games overall. After suffering a disheartening 66-46 loss at St. Mary's on January 26, the Dons bounced back with a vengeance, defeating Pacific by 21 points on the road (81-60).
That win brings us to the fact that San Francisco is a profitable 12-4 ATS in its last sixteen games following a win by 20+ points, 4-1 ATS in its last five games versus .399 or worse opposition, 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference affairs and 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a favorite. In other words, the Dons enjoy beating up inferior competition.
Meanwhile, Pepperdine is a woeful 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games, 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games and 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games versus .501 or greater opposition, including 1-6 ATS against .601 or greater foes.
With San Francisco standing at 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series, take the Dons minus the points as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick for Thursday, February 2.
Vegas Synergy
Arizona at Oregon State
Play: Oregon St +16.5
We have believed and projected the entire 2016-17 Pac-12 campaign that ultimately, once healthy and whole, the young Arizona Wildcats would provide evidence that they were the best in the West and the top of the Pacific 12 league. The fifth-ranked Wildcats come into this Wednesday night conference title having won 14 straight games to grab the top spot in the league standings.
The ‘Cats have the luxury of a complete squad with the recent reinstatement of Allonzo Trier and are a team that can defend and score and are a nightmare matchup for every team in the Pac 12. With two frontcourt studs in Lauri Markkanen and Dusan Ristic the Arizona rotations are capable of being a threat to score and defend in the paint and on the perimeter.
Arizona’s win two weeks ago at Pauley over then-No. 3 UCLA 96-85 was the signature win that alerted the league and the hoops nation that coach Sean Miller’s team was the real deal and a serious threat to earn a No #1 Seed in the West.
Miller told reporters earlier this week. “A lot of people (were) saying great things, (but) watching our effort level, our consistency, our togetherness, we weren’t near where we were coming (into those games). We have to get that back to have great success in the second half of the Pac-12.”
The Wildcats are on the road tonight for a league test against the Oregon State Beavers, a contest that is scheduled to tipoff at 9:00 p.m. ET at Gill Coliseum in Corvallis. The Beavers enter tonight’s event the losers of nine straight games and one of a trio of schools, in the seven conferences considered major, with without a conference victory .
Measuring the Beavers struggles in league play are not necessarily indicative of what tonight’s outcome will resemble. OSU has lost by an average of 16 points per affair during their current nine straight losing streak but are more than capable of being at their best on their home court. To the Beavers’ defense they have been without their leading scorer Tres Tinkle (20.2 points, 8.3 rebounds) has missed the last 16 games with a wrist injury, also absent has been bench phenom Cheikh N’Diaye (3.6, 2.2) will miss his 14th game due to a shoulder injury and 13 contests with a shoulder injury, but the squad continues to grow under the improved play of Stephen Thompson Jr. (17.1 points), Drew Eubanks (14.9, 8.5 rebounds) and Jaquori McLaughlin (11.5 points).
Tonight’s game in Corvallis is a tough spot for the Wildcats and a chance for the Beavers to shine. The Wildcats will not maximize their first rotation tonight nor are they aiming to send the local Oregon State faithful to the exits early on Thursday Night, not with their huge showdown on Saturday against the Pac-12’s second-place and nationally ranked Oregon Ducks on deck
The Beavers are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing a team with a road winning percentage of .601 or better and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home dog.
Mike Rose
Michigan State at Nebraska
Play: Michigan State +1
Michigan State has started to find its range from beyond the arc. Against Purdue, it buried 11 of 24 shots but still went down in defeat. Versus Michigan, it was even more efficient in knocking down 5 of just 11 long range attempts. Big Red has been miserable defending the 3 ball all season in allowing a near 40 percent success rate. It just allowed Purdue to convert 14 of its 24 shots (58.3%), and if unable to limit what Sparty wants to do from deep, it will likely end up costing them the game.
I’ve been preaching it all season. Michigan State is going to be much better at the end of the regular season than it was when it kicked off its 2016-17 campaign. Sparty is a very young and talented bunch. It was going to take time for the team to grow. Injuries have stretched it out a bit longer than expected. Regardless, I’m not sold on Nebraska. I truly believe it shot its wad versus the Boilers and will revert back to the form that saw it drop four of its previous five games against the spread. This is a crucial two-game roady for the Spartans, and I fully expect it to get kicked off with a dub in Lincoln.
Kyle Hunter
Santa Clara at Portland
Play: Santa Clara -4.5
The Santa Clara Broncos are a much improved team this year. Herb Sendek is doing a great job with this team. They go into Portland on Thursday night to play a team that appears to be packing it in for the season. Portland is without star guard Alec Wintering for the rest of the season, and they miss him badly. This is a very short handed team now. Portland played only six guys last game. The Pilots defense has been atrocious in recent games. In their last 3 games, Portland's opponent has scored 1.21, 1.28, and 1.22 points per possession. That's the worst defensive efficiency numbers of any team in the country in the last three games. Santa Clara is now the third or fourth best team in the WCC, and I think they win comfortably in Portland here.