Free Picks for Thursday, February 9th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
CELTICS AT BLAZERS
PLAY: CELTICS +1.5
Pretty good situational spot for the Celtics. Boston has been a good bounce back team for the most part. I’ll look for them to display some intensity here after a very poor second half at Sacramento, against a Kings team that was shorthanded.
Portland managed to get a win last time out, but the Blazers have been just plain lousy when it comes to stringing anything positive together. They’re only 8-14 playing off a win, and even worse than that against the number.
Boston isn’t elite, but they’re certainly decent, and I like backing okay teams off a bad performance, particularly when matched up against an opponent they can handle. No prob with the betting line as the Blazers are favored. I’ll take the Celtics in this spot.
Brad Diamond
North Carolina +2½
Well coach “K” is back, the Blue Devils (18-5) are at home and the national press in talking Duke. Granted this is same floor revenge for Duke who lost here last March 76-72 to UNC (21-4), but the Heels have won their last 9-of-10 SU (5-5 ATS) and they are the underdog. The dog in the series is 6-2 ATS with the road unit 19-7 ATS. Fundamental advantages bring a young Duke team looking to drive higher in the polls with an aggressive defense holding the opposition to 67.9 points per game. Critical too, here is their foul shooting which has been super last five games @ 78.4%. That’s an important edge on your home floor in a rivalry game, but UNC is the better rebounding team. In fact, they are #1 in the nation in rebounding their own shots @ 42.8%. If forward Pinson is back for the Tar Heels the bench will solidify a nice addition. With all the line pressure, coach “K” in the building you can be assured the public will be pushing the number higher. So, from the contrarian standpoint, we must take the points and back UNCs incredible 5-1 ATS recent mark at Duke.
Marc Lawrence
Oregon vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA -5
Edges - Bruins: 18-1 SU home following three consecutive away games, including 6-0 SUATS versus greater than .730 opponents. Ducks: 0-3 ATS after facing Arizona versus .800 or greater foes. With the Bruins returning home off a previous home loss - their only home defeat of the season - we recommend a 1* play on UCLA.
Jim Feist
Wisconsin at Nebraska
Pick: Under
Wisconsin (20-3) is a powerhouse defensive teams under Greg Gard, on 16-1 SU run. They are off a 65-50 win against Indiana. #1 in the Big 10 in scoring defense (59.8 ), #5 in field goal defense (40%). Wisconsin is 22-8 under the total on the road and 19-8 under away against a team with a winning home record. Nebraska is #13 in the Big 10 in scoring (71 pg), relying too much on 6-4 senior G Tai Webster (18 ppg) to carry the load. Sophomore guard Glynn Watson (14 ppg) is in a shooting slump, 0-4 vs Iowa, and they lost 6-7 sophomore Ed Morrow (10 p, 7 rpg) to a foot injury. Nebraska is 8-2-1 under the total as a home dog of +7 to +12.5.
Allen Eastman
Belmont (-4.5) over Jacksonville State
I will go with the Bruins in this one. This team is on fire. Belmont has won 13 straight games and they are on a 7-1 ATS run in their last eight games. The Bruins are dominating the OVC. They are on the road for this game, but that has not been a problem at all. They have won seven straight road games. Last week they went to rival Murray State and won by 12 points in a game that was never close. They also beat Tennessee State, another OVC competitor, by 17 points on the road on Jan. 28. Belmont has won seven straight games by at least 10 points, and I expect them to do the same thing here. Belmont already beat Jacksonville State by 17 points once this year, and JSU is just 3-3 SU in its last six games. The Gamecocks are just 3-3 SU in their six league home games. They don't have a great home-court advantage, and I don't think they will have enough to get the job done here. Take Belmont.
Jeffrey James
Thunder -10
Have to love the Thunder here since they will be very ready to beat the defending champs especially since they got hammered at Cleveland just a couple of weeks ago. The Thunder have covered 7 of their last 8 home games while Cleveland is just 3-7 ATS on the road lately. Big scheduling edge here for Oklahoma City since they have been off for the last 2 days while Cleveland played on Wednesday night in Indiana. Look for the rested, motivated Thunder to get this cover here as the play of the day.
Neil The Greek
Celtics vs, Blazers
Play: Celtics +1.5
After playing one of their worst games of the year, Boston gets a chance to bounce back quickly as they get to play a back to back tonight in Portland. They should come into this game with a little edge after getting their butts kicked by the Kings without Cousins. And Evan Turner going down for Portland is bigger then people realize.
Wunderdog
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
Pick: Wisconsin -8
The Wisconsin Badgers seem to not be considered a top-flight program, or among the elite in college basketball. But this program has quietly put together four seasons of 30+ wins in their last 10, and at 20-3 this year they will challenge to make that five. One of the things that makes this team special is their play on the defensive end of the floor. In their last 378 games, the Badgers have allowed just 58.2 points per game. That poises them to win and cover a lot of games. When the Badgers hold opponents to that 10 year average or less, they are 114-52-2 ATS. They have held 15 opponents to 65 or fewer points this season, a mark that has earned them a 155-100-5 ATS mark over the last 10 years. I think they get that done tonight, which stacks the odds substantially in their favor.
Ken Thomson
Florida Atlantic -7
Florida Atlantic is putting things together and will be a tough draw in Conference USA Tournament for somebody. The Owls have reeled off three straight Conference wins, all on the road. They have seven players averaging between ( 7-10 ) points per game and have depth that can wear teams down. Meanwhile, North Texas has dropped 11 straight games and is winless, ( 0-8 ) on the road this season. They have not been closer than 7 points in any of their five road losses inside Conference play. I expect Coach Mike Curry to have his Owls ready to keep momentum rolling and pull within a game of .500 in CUSA. I like FAU by double digits.
Wofford -4.5
Wofford is peaking right now, winning 3 in a row and 6 of last 8 games. Fletcher Magee & Eric Garcia combine 32 points per game and have been instrumental in the Terriers rise. One of the blemishes inside the Southern Conference was a buzzer beater at Samford in overtime last month. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs of Samford start a 3-game road stretch against the 3 of the best teams in the Conference. Furman & Chattanooga, who battle each other tonight at Furman are both on deck for Samford. The Terriers will beat you when they are hitting their three's as they have had several games with 13 or more three's in a contest. The only game they did that and lost was the OT loss at Samford. Look for Wofford to get rolling sometime in the first half with back-to-back triples and open things up. I expect Wofford to wear down the Bulldogs and get the home win between 8-16 points.
N. Kentucky -4
Northern Kentucky held a 10 point lead 42-32 at halftime up in Green Bay last month. That lead ballooned to 15 points, 49-34 a few minutes into the second half. Then the Norse hit a wall and the the basket shrunk up and seemed to completely disappear. Give credit to Green Bay for coming back and getting the home win but it was a meltdown by NKU that fueled the come back. Northern Kentucky has won 3 of their last 4 games including a road win at Wright State in their last contest. The game should be close for awhile but I expect NKU to pull away down the stretch.
Dave Essler
Furman Pk
Furman gets a shot a revenge here for their worst loss of the season at T-Chat earlier this season. T-Chat spent the night on the FT line, and what's interesting is that they were out-rebounded on the offensive glass by Furman, and turned the ball over a few more times. Chattanooga has a really bad loss at home to VMI, and although they've won on the road, not necessarily in convincing fashion. Furman just won three straight conference road games, and at home HAD been blowing people out. I don't expect they'll blow T-Chat out - it'd be nice - but I do expect them to win. They ARE in first place in the Conference and have played a tougher conference SOS than T-Chat. They have a better defense and a more efficient offense. That's all I got.
Jack Brayman
Taking a shot with my freebie, as I like the big underdog in this matchup between The Citadel and East Tennessee State.
Sometimes there are teams that overlook sure wins and get themselves in a pickle with a closer game than expected. That's what I expect in this one, as The Citadel are going to keep it closer than expected.
I know The Citadel allows nearly 100 points per game, and does yield 101.2 on the road, but East Tennessee State is in after a loss to Wofford and could press a little too much tonight.
ETSU will win, but I think by a dozen, as it overlooks The Citadel and looks past this game
3* THE CITADEL
Brad Wilton
Don't sleep on the Bruins!
Belmont hits Jacksonville State riding a season-high 13 game winning streak, and better still, the Bruins have recorded against the spread wins in 4 straight and 7 of their last 8.
Included in that stretch is a January 19th home win and cover over Jax State, 77-60. That "W" put the series winning streak at 3 straight and 8 of 9 overall for the Bruins.
Jacksonville State is just 1-4 against the spread in their lined home games this season, and just 1-8 overall their last 9 lined home dates.
Lay the small road wood tonight with Belmont.
4* BELMONT
Chris Jordan
My free play is in the best college basketball rivalry ever.
Tonight I'm playing the road underdog, as I like North Carolina over Duke.
I've seen both teams play in person, here in Las Vegas.
Duke destroyed UNLV. North Carolina lost in overtime to Kentucky, in the best college basketball game of the year, so far.
I've seen the mettle both teams play with, and I think the Tar Heels are th better team.
No. 8 North Carolina (21-4, 9-2 ACC) is in first place in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and even though No. 18 Duke has won three games in a row, I don't think the Devils have enough to overcome the Tar Heels' depth.
More than anything, as surprising as this is, the Tar Heels are the first nationally ranked opponent to visit Duke (18-5, 6-4) this season.
I know the Blue Devils have won four of the last five meetings and 11 of the last 15 matchups, but North Carolina won a year ago in Durham 76-72 to secure the ACC regular-season championship. Look for the Tar Heels to steal this win today.
1* NORTH CAROLINA
Eric Schroeder
My free play has a big "if" all over it.
The Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers to town, and I'm hearing that LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving might all sit out the contest. The second the news breaks whether or not they do, the line will move.
I want to be prepared for it and have you laying the four immediately.
See, if they play, the line probably won't move much. And since the Cavaliers are in after Wednesday's 132-117 victory in Indiana, I still like it because they'll be tired. If they don't play, the line will move to about -7, and you'll be happy you have the -4.
Oklahoma City won't be looking ahead to Golden State and Kevin Durant, not with the Cavaliers in the building. And, not when revenge is on the brain, after Cleveland crushed the Thunder at Quicken Loans Arena with a 107-91 thrashing last week.
Take the home team here.
1* THUNDER