SCOTT RICKENBACH
76ers +5½
This is a back to spot for the Sixers but I look for them to bring a little "extra" for this one as they seek to avenge an early December loss to the Magic in Philly. The 76'ers are a stellar 17-6 ATS this season when they are playing with home loss revenge. The Sixers enter this one on a 5-game losing streak but they're catching a handful of points against an Orlando team that continues to have its own issues as well. The Magic have now lost 14 of their last 18 games and they got blown out by 24 points at Houston Tuesday. Orlando has been favored 11 times this season and they have only covered 3 of the 11 games! The Magic also have just 8 covers in 25 home games this season. The Sixers are on a fantastic 15-6 ATS run after covering as a large home dog to the Spurs last night. This certainly is the "ugliest looking" match-up on the board tonight but sometimes that is where the best value is found and, after an early line move toward the Magic in this one, I love the underdog value with the Sixers catching a few too many points here.
BRANDON LEE
North Carolina +2½
Most are going to see Duke as a very short home favorite and jump on the Blue Devils, but my money in on the Tar Heels in this one. This rivalry hasn't exactly been good to the home team. In fact, the road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings with the underdog covering in 6 of the last 8. I know Duke has started playing better of late, but they aren't playing anywhere close to what we expected to see from this team. North Carolina is 9-2 in the ACC and I don't think there's any question they are playing the better basketball over the last month. My biggest concern with Duke is their inability to get stops, as they are allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% from the field in conference play, where they are just 3-7 ATS.
JOHN MARTIN
Rockets vs. Hornets
Play: Hornets +3
The Hornets and Rockets squared off just about a month ago. The Hornets lost the first meeting 114-121 as 9-point road underdogs. I expect them to get their revenge at home this time around and win outright as 3-point dogs. The Hornets are a solid 16-10 at home this season. They will be ready to go as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. The Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win. Houston is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
RAY MONOHAN
BYU vs. Pepperdine
Play: BYU -9
The Cougars take on Pepperdine Thursday and the visitors minus the points has value. BYU gets overlooked because of what Gonzales and St Mary's do in the conference, but this team is extremely talented.
BYU has the advantage here both offensively in the paint and defensively as far as speed goes. They should be able to control the pace of this one and really make things uncomfortable for Pepperdine.
Some trends to note. Cougars are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5. Waves are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games overall and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
This line has value and is worth a move.
BLACK WIDOW
Orlando Magic -6
Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Orlando) in a game involving two good offensive teams that score between 98 and 102 points per game after 42-plus games, after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games are 29-7 ATS over the last five seasons. This situation's record is 2-0 this season alone. The 76ers played last night and are on a back-to-back, plus they'll again be without Joel Embiid against the Magic here.
DAVE PRICE
Oregon vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA -4
The UCLA Bruins will be thirsty for revenge from an 87-89 road loss to Oregon in their first meeting this season. Bryce Alford missed a rare free throw on the front end of a 1-and-1, and Dillon Brooks hit the game-winner at the buzzer for the Ducks. The Bruins have had this game circled on their calendars ever since. If they want to win the Pac-12, which is their goal, they know this is a must-win. UCLA is 11-1 at home this season with an average margin of victory of nearly 22 points per game. The Bruins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. T
MATT JOSEPHS
James Madison vs. NC-Wilmington
Play: NC-Wilmington -14½
It's a huge mismatch as UNC Wilmington hosts James Madison. The Dukes have lost five of their last six including a home contest with these same Seahawks losing 87-76 in a game where both teams shot over 50% from the field. JMU has won just one conference road game at Hofstra, but they don't have the offense to keep up especially now that Yohanny Dalembert is out for the season. The Seahawks are crushing people at home beating Delaware by 28, William and Mary by 24 and Elon by 16. Teams have tried to slow them down at home and not many has had success outside of Charleston. I think the Seahawks can name their score in an easy win.
JACK JONES
Santa Clara vs. San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -5½
The San Francisco Dons have been a money-making machine in West Coast Conference action. They are 17-8 SU and 13-8 ATS on the season. They may be the third-best team in the WCC behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's, and they have been lighting it up of late.
Indeed, the Dons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Their only non-cover came at St. Mary's in a game in which they were tied at halftime with the Gaels before getting blown out in the second half. They have actually won six of their last seven games straight up with all six victories coming by double-digits.
I like this spot for San Francisco, which will be out for revenge from a 58-72 road loss at Santa Clara in their first meeting this season on December 31st. And Santa Clara just played Gonzaga last time out, so it will be hard for them to get motivated to play the Dons here, especially having already beaten them once this season.
The Dons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. The Dons are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
JIMMY BOYD
Gonzaga vs. Loyola Marymount
Play: Loyola-Marymount +18
I like the value here with the Lions at home against the No. 1 ranked team in the country. This is the biggest game of the season for Loyola-Marymount and I expect an all out effort here at home against the Bulldogs. On the flip side of this, this is a bad spot for Gonzaga, who has what most are calling their biggest threat left on the schedule on deck in two days at St. Mary's.
Given that the Bulldogs already beat the Lions by 38 at home, they will have a hard time taking this game seriously. Keep in mind that Loyola was only a 19.5-point dog at Gonzaga. Bad teams are often not competitive on the road, but can keep games surprisingly close at home and the Lions have done that this season. They only lost by 12 at home to St Mary's, but just 5 to BYU and only 3 to UConn in non-conference play. You also have to realize the books have inflated this line not only causes Gonzaga is No. 1, but they know the public will want nothing to do with the Lions.
ART ARONSON
Thunder -9½
Even if LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were playing in this game, we’d still probably pull the trigger on the Thunder this evening. Cleveland played just last night and came from behind to knock off the Pacers 132-117 just last night. OKC on the other hand has had two whole days off and will look to avenge a 107-91 to Cleveland on January 27th. But James, Irving and Love aren’t playing in this game, instead being given the night off to rest after yesterday’s big road win. Note that Cleveland is just 2-7 ATS this year when playing on back-to-back days anyways, while OKC is 2-1 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and 12-7 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles -1½ +297 over FLORIDA
We’re going to split this wager into two parts. We’re playing the Kings at a pick-em for 1 unit and we’re playing the Kings -1½ +297 for 1 unit to make up our tradition 2 unit wager. Therefore, our wagers are as follows:
L.A. -1½ +297 (Risking 1 unit)
L.A. -102 (Risking 1.02 units to win 1).
Los Angeles has been shutout in back-to-back games and it has gone three straight games without a goal in regulation time. The Kings last five-on-five goal was on February 1 but we’re not concerned in the least. Results influence the market while actual performances do not and in that regard, there is not a team in the NHL that is coming close to matching the Kings’ possession and defensive numbers right now. L.A. has held its last four opponents to 22, 17, 20 and 21 shots on net. In their last two losses to Washington and Tampa Bay respectively, the Kings held a significant shots on net edge of 64-41. Washington scored five goals on 20 shots on net and Tampa scored five goals on 21 shots while the Kings scored zero goals on 64 shots. That is simply a case of puck luck working against the Kings but their high quality scoring chances have been significantly higher than every team they have played since the break. What most are going to read or hear about is a Kings’ slump right now but that’s laughable because they’re playing better now than they have in a long time without the results.
We like the Panthers and trust they are going to be a tough out for the remainder of the year and a definite threat to make the playoffs. However, the fade is once again on against teams’ coming off their bye week. That bye week is mandatory for every team and includes no practices. It’s a week vacation away from hockey. Teams’ coming off the bye this year are 1-4 straight up with the only team not suffering a loss being the Maple Leafs but Toronto was outshot 36-24. Teams’ coming off the break have proven to be flat and usually need a game to get back into the swing of things. A hungry Los Angeles squad that is playing at a high level is likely going to prove to be too much for the a Panthers’ bunch that is not only coming off the bye but that has played just three games (because of All-Star break) since Jan 23.
Nashville +113 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. We were down on the Preds for quite some time earlier this year but their play lately has us taking a different position. Nashville’s intensity level is finally where it needs to be. The Preds are playing with the same heart and determination the past month that they have displayed for years and that made them such a tough out. Perhaps P.K Subban being back on the ice and his infectious enthusiasm has something to do with it. Whatever the case, the Preds are playing their best hockey of the year. Nashville has won nine of its past 13 games. Completely healthy and in great form, the Preds bring their great possession numbers with them and now get a rare opportunity to play at Madison Square Gardens against a weak possession team.
The Rangers have won three straight. Frankly, we don’t know how they win one straight. Kevin Klein and Dan Girardi getting top-4 minutes on defense is remarkable. You will not find two worse d-men getting top-4 minutes in the entire league and might have to go back 50 years to find two d-men on the same team less competent than that pair. The Rangers have allowed more high scoring chances against than 28 of the 30 NHL teams. They have spent more time in their own end than 26 of the 30 teams. The media or standings will suggest that the Rangers are Stanley Cup hopefuls and we’re suggesting that they are a first-round exit waiting to happen. We’ll see what happens at the trade deadline, as New York is in position to deal one of their quality forwards for a quality defenseman. Should they fail to make a deal, the Rags will be gone in round one. In their last game against Anaheim, the Rags played 80% of it in their own end and won 4-1. New York has drawn just one lousy penalty three times in their last four games because they are always in their own end and not creating offensively. The Preds figure to have a large possession advantage here. Defensively, mismatches this big are rare occurrences and it doesn’t favor the host. The Rangers scare us for sure because of their depth up front but the entire picture reveals a weak team that plays far too many minutes in their own to be winning at the pace that they are.
ARIZONA +136 over Montreal
OT included. We just hope we’re not too late to this party but have you seen the Canadiens play lately? Montreal has lost four straight and just got shutout by Colorado, 4-0. Not scoring on the Avs is no easy feat and it’s worth noting that Tyson Barrie missed that game for Colorado. Montreal has scored one goal or less in seven of its past 13 games. They have scored two or less in four straight but it’s not the lack of goals that are concerning because puck luck plays a role, it’s the lack of chances and intensity. Montreal has mustered a mere 27, 22, 22, 16, 22 and 20 shots on goal in six of its last seven games. They rank dead last in the NHL in scoring chances over the past month. Carey Price is laboring too. When Price went down last year, the Canadiens were one of the worst teams in the NHL. After a hot start again this year, Montreal is again proving to be one of the easiest teams to play against only right now, Price isn’t bailing them out every game. With this being the year of the fired coaches, Montreal’s might be next, as this team is not responding to Michel Therrien for the second year in a row.
By contrast, Arizona is playing at a high level after a brutal 3½ months. The Coyotes have won four of their last six games. Their two losses over that span came against Chicago and Los Angeles, both by one goal and we’re here to tell you that they were all over the Blackhawks. The Coyotes are healthy with Max Domi back. Recent call-ups Brendan Perlini and Lawson Crouse has given the ‘Yotes an energy boost. That pair has not only energized the team but both are high draft picks with great talent. Throw in a rock solid defense that can move the puck and the Coyotes are primed to ruin some playoff hopes down the stretch. The best news is that Arizona is greatly undervalued because pf their horrible record. We are making a commitment to them the rest of the way because we trust them to be at least a .500 team from now to the end of the year and if that comes to pass, there are outstanding profits forthcoming.
SPORTS WAGERS
DREXEL +4½ over William & Mary
For The Tribe of William & Mary, it really has been a tale of two seasons. At home, W&M remains unblemished by sporting a sparkling 11-0 record in Williamsburg. In addition, W&M own some rather impressive wins on their own court, as they were the first CAA team to hand the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks a loss. However, on the road, they seem quite mortal, as their 2-10 record away from Williamsburg will attest to. The books have been keen on noticing this trend because every time they have traveled away from their cozy confines, this outfit is being offered with points. Taking back points when traveling to Duke or Louisville is to be expected but this Tribe team has been offered points on the road a few times and have failed to deliver over and over again. Case study #1 – Northeastern. The Tribe got whacked by the Huskies when they traveled to Northeastern as a 2½-point pup on New Year’s Eve. Northeastern would smash W&M by a margin of 20 points. Case study #2 - W&M would defeat Elon University at home by a trey on January 5th. In their follow-up 16 days later at Elon U, the Tribe would falter and be beaten by nine points. Case study #3 - Hampton. W&M lost to Hampton by 10 points, which further illustrates the woes this team suffers most of the time when it is traveling. Case study #4 – Towson. Most recently, the Tribe was taking back points on the road against a weak Towson team and they lost again. Now, for the first time this year, W&M is spotting points on the road in a position that has already proven to be a fatal chink in its armor.
The Dragons of Drexel are a hard sell, as they are currently riding a four-game losing streak while posting a 2-8 record overall in their last 10. In addition, Drexel lost to this very William & Mary team in Williamsburg on January 30th by 27 points. Now the market only sees 1/5 of that number as the asking price and will be enticed into playing the wrong side. Drexel is a 4-5 basketball team on their own court this season and if there was ever a situation that could prime them to get off the snide, this would be it. That said, this is not about backing the Dragoons. It’s about playing value and in that regard, the Tribe cannot and should not be spotting road points to anyone within their division. Take the points.
N. COLORADO +108 over Idaho
Cowan Spectrum was thumping Saturday night in Moscow, as the Vandals took down Sacramento State in a game that was much closer than the 81-67 score would indicate. Idaho got off to an incredibly hot start by going up by as many as 19 in the first half but once they got that big lead, they milked it for the rest of the game. The Vandals have won six of their last seven so we can understand how they might be an appealing choice as just a -1½ point favorite. A closer look at the schedule shows us this game tonight in Northern Colorado may be a big letdown spot after that emotional home win Saturday night. Next up for Idaho is a huge rivalry game with North Dakota. That's a game they must win if they want to stay in contention for a Big Sky title and an at-large bid. This pit stop in Greeley, Colorado could be easily overlooked.
Northern Colorado is coming off a hard fought overtime loss at North Dakota. Even though they lost by 10, the score was misleading. The Bears did not trail in the second half until there was just nine seconds left and the Hawks were able to force overtime. UND rode out a 9-0 run in OT to seal the deal. While the result was surely disappointing, the Bears have to be feeling good about hanging with one of the top-3 teams in the Big Sky Conference. There's no shame in losing to the Fighting Hawks in Grand Forks. The Bears are coming off three straight road games so this is their first game in Greeley since January 21st. Bank of Colorado arena should be jumping. Northern Colorado is 8-14 and has won just one of their last seven games, so how can they be getting less than a basket at home to a team as hot at the Vandals? Toss in the fact that Idaho is 3-0 against the Bears since returning to the Big Sky and we see a situation that is enticing the market into making what will likely be a losing wager. This trip to Northern Colorado is more of an inconvenience for the Vandals and the odds makers know it. The dog outright gets this call. .
Oregon +4 over UCLA
The Bruins are the #9 team in the country thanks in large part to their 92.9 points per game. UCLA thrives on its transition game to rack up points. The only downside to that style of play is that it leaves them vulnerable to the opposition's attack. This has been the Bruins downfall. They can't play defense. UCLA was flying high after ripping off 13 wins to start the season but then dropped two straight conference games to Arizona and USC. UCLA spent most of the first month of the season pounding on second tier West Coast schools like Pacific, Northridge, San Diego and Long Beach State. When we take a closer look to that hot start to the season, it's not nearly as impressive as it sounds. For a top-10 team, the Bruins have only played the 87th ranked schedule in the country and we can't help but wonder if scheduling cupcakes earlier in the year has done them a disservice. Tonight UCLA will face one of the stingiest defenses in the Pac-12 when the Oregon Ducks come to Pauley Pavilion.
The #6 ranked Ducks are on a roll after two straight wins including a huge 85-58 victory over Arizona last Saturday. The Ducks shot an impressive 62.5 percent from the field but they've got it done on both ends of the court all season. Oregon has been downright stingy by allowing just 63.5 points per game. That's good for #2 in the conference right behind Cal's 63.1. Unlike the Bruins, the Ducks bring a balanced attack to this game. The UCLA Bruins have only been outscored in transition one time this season. That was against these Ducks in a game played up in Eugene back in December. The Ducks are in better form and can actually play defense so we'll scoop up these generous points in a heartbeat because that’s where all the value lies. When you play ranked teams at home in popular markets, you will pay a premium to do so and that is certainly in play here.
Power Sports
Cleveland St. vs. Valparaiso
Pick: Cleveland St.
Cleveland State is having a tough season, but it's been more "unlucky" than "bad." The Vikings are just 7-17 straight up, but seven of those losses have been five points or less. The vast majority of the close defeats have come in Horizon League play. Case in point; they just fell by two at home to Oakland on Saturday (still covered as 4-pt dogs). Three of the team's last four losses have now been by three points or less (six points total!).
At the opposite end of the "luck" spectrum is where Valpo resides. According to KenPom, the Crusaders have been one of the 10 luckiest teams in America this season. Many of their close wins came in the non-conference portion of the schedule, however. They'd been rolling in Horizon League play; that was until running into Green Bay on Saturday. On the road, Valpo was blown out 86-69 as 5.5-pt favorites.
That loss will undoubtedly have Valparaiso motivated here, but Cleveland State comes in looking for revenge. So the underdog won't be lacking for motivation either. Last month, Valpo won as 5.5-pt chalk in downtown Cleveland, 78-67. Considering the Crusaders went just 2 for 11 from three-point range in that game, it was clearly a missed opportunity for CSU. Valpo is now 6-0 SU vs. CSU the L3 seasons, covering all but once, but the Vikings have shown they can hang tough in games. I don't think the underdog wins outright here, but they keep it close.
David Banks
Oregon @ UCLA
Pick: UCLA -4.5
Oregon sits atop the Pac-12 after a statement win over fifth-ranked Arizona on Saturday. Tyler Dorsey hit six 3-pointers and scored 23 points to lead the Ducks to an 85-58 drubbing of the Wildcats setting up a Thursday night showdown with No. 11 UCLA. Oregon has an 89-87 victory over the Bruins under its belt already and has lost just once in its last 20 games.
UCLA (21-3, 8-3) is coming off of back-to-back wins over Washington and Washington State. The Bruins handled both teams easily using their frantic style of play to pound both teams into submission. UCLA is second in the nation in scoring averaging 92.9 points per game. When head coach Steve Alford’s Bruins get to 90, they are tough to beat. In all three of the Bruins losses, they failed to hit the 90-point mark.
UCLA is led by their superstar freshmen, T.J. Leaf and Lonzo Ball. Leaf is the team’s leading scorer averaging 17.1 ppg. He is also UCLA’s leading rebounder (8.9 rpg). Ball scores 15.1 points and leads the team with 7.8 assists per game. Alford’s son, Bryce, averages 16.4 points and is another of the six Bruins that averages in double figures. If
If there is a team in the Pac-12 that can keep up with UCLA, it is Oregon. The Ducks are athletic, can run, and they play great defense. The Ducks are a Top 25 defensive team (23rd in the nation, 63.5 ppg). Dillon Brooks (14.4 ppg) is as good as any in the conference and 6-10 Chris Boucher (12.4 ppg) is a defensive force averaging nearly seven rebounds and three blocked shots per game.
Mike Rose
Temple +7.5
The Mustangs have gone down in defeat only once over the last 2+ months. That loss just so happened to be incurred by the opponent up next on the docket in the form of the Cincinnati Bearcats. SMU dropped a tough 66-64 decision at Cincy back on January 12, and there’s no doubt Ben Moore and company will be looking forward to returning home to seek revenge for that defeat this Sunday. That could pose a major issue for those looking to lay the points with SMU possibly overlooking Temple for bigger game over the weekend.
The Owls have struggled against the Ponies of late in dropping four of the L/5 meetings, but the two times they hosted this rivalry saw them win outright 89-80 as 6-point underdogs and fall 60-55 as 3-point underdogs. Seriously though, if you plan on taking the points with the home team, know full well SMU is the much better of these two teams. Ojeyele and his mates toyed with Temple in the first go round bolting out to a 40-22 halftime lead then cruised to the 79-65 win and cover as 11.5 point favorites. They outboarded the Owls 40-22 and shot 48% overall. The only two factors that could prevent another SMU romp is Temple being much better at home, and the Mustangs looking past it for Sunday’s tilt with the Bearcats. I like to press my luck in these types of spots, so I’ll take the points and hope Temple shows up like it did versus Memphis and Cincinnati.