Free Picks for Thursday, January 12th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
TENNESSEE STATE AT EASTERN KENTUCKY
PLAY: TENNESSEE STATE -4.5
I’m not going to go into detail to any extent on this matchup. For me, this is a coaching mismatch where I think the distinct advantage goes to the visiting side.
Dana Ford has transformed what was a terrible Tennessee State program into one that might well now be the #2 team in the OVC. Ford is already establishing himself as a star on the rise, and I have a feeling he might be fielding offers for a bigger job this spring.
Dan McHale is not enjoying that level of success at Eastern Kentucky. McHale took over the Colonels when Jeff Neubauer left to take over at Fordham. It’s not going well at all. This program had won 70 games in a three-year span under Neubauer. They declined last season and the downhill trend has accelerated this year.
McHale is a Rick Pitino disciple and wants to play that style, but he doesn’t have the horses to work that system and the team is simply getting worse. Opponents are shredding the Eastern Kentucky for easy looks and makes. Don’t take my word for it, look at the numbers. Opponent possessions are taking very little time and the success rate on those possessions is higher than acceptable for a team that wants to win games.
Eastern Kentucky has had a couple of nice wins, including one against a good Marshall team. But the bad is outweighing the good and if this boils down to a battle of sideline wits, I’ve got to side with Ford. Tennessee State is my preference in this game.
Sleepyj
Morehead St. +4
My numbers say Morehead at +1/PK....So grabbing +4 is fine with me for this contest...Never easy going on the road in conference and winning...Let alone laying 2 baskets...Morehead coming off two straight wins and in the middle of a nice home stand...They should be ready and Belmont IMO might be riding high on a nice winning streak..Problem is covering points for them on the road...They like to play razor close games..I think we sneak this one in tonight.
Scott Spreitzer
Northern Kentucky vs. Wisc-Milwaukee
play: Wisc-Milwaukee +5
Tough start to the season for the Panthers, but they're deep and they're covering point-spreads. Ultimately, that's all we really care about. Milwaukee has dropped six straight games, but they covered four of the six and they're on a 6-3 ATS run in their last nine, overall. In fact, the Panthers are just nine total points away from a 3-3 SU record in those six outings. Five of their last eight losses have come by six or fewer points. Milwaukee owns the type of tempo to slow things down making the Norse uncomfortable on the road. Northern Kentucky lost three of their last four road games and in all three losses their opponents slammed the door on the defensive end. The Panthers are on a 19-7-2 ATS run when getting points and I recommend taking the points with Milwaukee on Thursday.
Jim Feist
Los Angeles at San Antonio
Play: Under 210½
Los Angeles is not a strong offensive team, #18 in the NBA in scoring, #19 in shooting. The Under is 22-10 in Lakers last 32 games following a double-digit loss at home. They face a powerhouse San Antonio defense that is second in the league in points allowed. And when these teams clash the Under is 19-8 in the last 27 meetings in San Antonio.
Ben Burns
Western Kentucky vs. UAB
Play: UAB -8½
I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, an outright win at Rice. At the time, I noted that I liked the manner in which they'd come back to beat North Texas in their previous game. Off back-to-back victories, I expect the Blazers to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game. On the other hand, the Hilltoppers saw their own forward progress come to a halt last time out, a potentially deflating 12-point loss against ODU. With WKU averaging 63.7 ppg on the road and UAB averaging 78.9 at home, consider laying the points with the home team.
Brad Diamond
Delaware vs. Towson
Play: Delaware +11
Not a real good spot for State, at home (0-5 ATS) laying points vs. a lesser foe in Delaware who suffers to score points in the paint. In the series, the underdog has taken 7-of-10 ATS, and the Blue Hens have covered 4 straight overall. With a flat spot at hand for TS take the points.
Mike Anthony
Chicago vs. New York
Play: Over 204.5
New York has Kyle O'Quinn and Justin Holiday - and they are a quietly strong duo coming off the bench at the C and G positions. Which is vital for the success of the Knicks, They bring scoring, as well as a great enthusiasm that pushes the ball in the right direction every night. Chicago doesn't get pushed hard enough when playing on the road. Which is surprising, because Coach Fred Hoiberg usually has had then ready for the test. Chicago will struggle with stopping the attacking rim game of New York. The Knicks are off a tough buzzer beater loss last night and have not been good on the 2nd game of back-to-back games.
Jesse Schule
Los Angeles vs. San Antonio
Play: Under 211
The Spurs are coming off a home loss to Milwaukee in a high scoring affair on Tuesday. They played uncharacteristically poor defense in that game, and you can believe that Coach Popovich will have let them know about it. San Antonio almost never loses back-to-back home games, and I expect to see them play stellar defense here at home versus the Lakers tonight. Their last home loss came by a score of 89-86 to Orlando in November, and they responded by beating Dallas 94-87 in their next game. The Spurs have won six straight versus the Lakers, and LA has scored an average of just 91 points in their last three games at San Antonio. All three of those games saw fewer than 210 combined points. The total for tonight's game is higher than it has been in any of the previous eight meetings.
Will Rogers
Los Angeles vs. San Antonio
Play: Under 210.5
The set-up: The 15-27 LA Lakers come to San Antonio to take on the 30-8 Spurs. Both teams are off losses, with the Lakers having a modest two-game winning streak snapped by scoring just 30 points in the second half of Tuesday's 108-87 home loss to the Trail Blazers. The Spurs lost Tuesday as well, 109-107 to the Bucks, giving an uncharacteristically poor defensive effort.
LA Lakers: Los Angeles is led by its backcourt, with four guards all averaging in double figures. Starters Russell (15.4) and Young (13.9), plus off the bench it's Williams (17.7) and Clarkson (13.7). However, that wasn't the case Tuesday, as just three players scored in double figures against Portland, including Luol Deng (just 8.4 PPG on the season), who finished with a team-high 14 points, 13 of which came in the first half. "We aren't winning games when one guy scores 40," head coach Luke Walton said. "We had nights like that, too, and we lose. I thought we played a good first half, so what happened after that was very unexpected. We've made some great progress the past few weeks, so we can't let the way we played (Tuesday) affect us. We just have to move on."
San Antonio: The Spurs allowed 85 or fewer points in two of their previous three games, so the sub-par effort that allowed the Bucks to go 10-of-19 from three-point range was surely out of character. "Milwaukee was aggressive for 48 minutes, played hard, executed, did a great job," San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. "You've got to guard them. If you don't guard them, you're in trouble and you've got to hope you score." The Spurs did place six players in double-figure scoring, led by the 30-point performance by forward Kawhi Leonard (24.1 & 5.8 ). It was Leonard's ninth game of 30 or more points this season. PF Aldridge (17.9 & 7.3) was out due to a stomach illness but is expected to play here.
The pick: The Lakers are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Expect the Spurs to make amends for that rare poor defensive effort in Tuesday's loss to the Bucks, which snapped the team's nine-game home winning streak. The Spurs rank second in the NBA in points allowed (97.8 PPG) and that number dips to 96.6 PPG here at home.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles vs. San Antonio
Play: San Antonio
The San Antonio Spurs are coming off a 109-007 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday, one which snapped a nine-game home winning streak.
"Our problem on (Tuesday) started with our individual defense," Spurs center Pau Gasol said. "(The Bucks) ran the same two plays about 80 percent of the time, and they scored effectively. We're supposed to be a pretty good defensive team, and that doesn't come from just one player, and not two players, but the entire team working together and being in sync on the floor. A guy can score one time, maybe twice, on a certain play, but that's it. We just let it keep rolling and paid the price."
He's right about the Spurs being a good defensive team, as San Antonio is second in scoring defense, allowing 97.8 PPG. Despite the sub-par work on the defensive end, the Spurs' Ginobili had a three-pointer from the corner with one second to play carom off the side of the backboard and out of bounds as the horn sounded in the 109-107 loss. Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge (17.9-7.3) was out due to a stomach illness but the Spurs placed six players in double-figure scoring, led by the 30-point performance by forward Kawhi Leonard (24.1-5.8 ). It was Leonard's ninth game of 30 or more points this season.
The 15-27 Lakers come to San Antonio off a discouraging 108-87 home loss Tuesday to the Blazers, as they scored just 30 points in the second half. The defeat snapped a modest two-game winning streak. "We just went flat," Los Angles guard Nick Young said. "The energy wasn't there in the second half. It got tough for us. It wasn't anything they were doing. We just didn't have the energy." Young (13.9) is one of four LA guards averaging in double figures (Williams at 17.7, Russell at 15.4 and Clarkson at 13.7 are the others) but just three players scored in double figures against Portland, including Luol Deng (just 8.4 PPG on the season), who finished with a team-high 14 points, 13 of which came in the first half, when the Lakers forged a 57-55 lead.
The teams are meeting for the second time this season. San Antonio beat the Lakers 116-107 at Staples Center on Nov 18 in the first matchup. Los Angeles has now lost eight straight games to San Antonio and hasn't won the season series against the Spurs since 2008-09. The Spurs' loss to the Bucks was uncharacteristic in that San Antonio did not make the kind of defensive stops in the endgame that the team is noted for. Expect the Spurs to make amends for a rare poor defensive game here, plus they are expected to be back at full strength with Aldridge returning to the lineup.
The Lakers rank 26th in points allowed (109.7 PPG) and have given up 111.4 PPG in going 5-16 SU on the road. LA also ranks dead-last (30th) in defensive FG percentage at 47.6. How will they stop the Spurs, who shoot 47.6 percent (2nd) from the floor, including 41.2 percent (1st) on threes? Adding insult to injury, the Spurs are the NBA's top free-throw shooting team (82.0%), as well.
Robert Ferringo
Utah (-5) over USC
USC was finally able to break into the Top 25, but I think that their stay is going to be short and sweet. This is a talented, albeit young, team and I don't think that they are ready to handle success. I also think that USC's 15-2 record was built against a pretty easy schedule stacked with home games. I think the Trojans are going to get ambushed in Salt Lake City and the Utes are a team on an upswing. They buried Colorado at home and I think they will do the same here. Utah got two guys eligible at the midseason break, David Collette and Sedrick Barefield, and they have been a completely different team since then. The Utes now have six different guys averaging double-figures in scoring and I think that they have more than enough firepower for a shootout with USC. The main difference is that I think Utah is going to defend much better than the Trojans. Five of USC's top seven players are freshmen or sophomores whereas Utah's main weapons are juniors and their lone senior. Experience, motivation, momentum and home court will make the difference here.
Wunderdog
Anaheim @ Colorado
Pick: Anaheim -154
Colorado had gone 10 games without a home win before beating the New York Islanders 2-1 in overtime on Friday. The Avalanche are just 5-13-1 at Pepsi Center for the season and has lost 10 of its last 12 games overall. Calvin Pickard made 37 saves against the Islanders and Nathan MacKinnon scored the game-winner. Anaheim has won four of its last five contests, including 2-0 over Dallas on Tuesday. John Gibson made 34 saves for his third shutout of the season and Jakob Silfverberg had a goal and assist for the Ducks. Gibson is 16-10-7 with a 2.38 goals-against average and .918 save percentage. Semyon Varlamov is expected in goal for Colorado and his record is 6-14-0 with a 3.33 GAA and .901 save percentage. The Avalanche are 1-10 following a win.
Wunderdog
New Orleans @ Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn +5
The New Orleans Pelicans immediately compromised their season with an 0-8 start. They have rebounded somewhat, but are still a below average team. The Nets have been a disaster, especially lately, as they have managed just a single win in their last 13 games. Nothing places value on a team than extended losing streaks, as the oddsmakers realize that no one wants to touch a bad team, especially a bad team that is struggling. The fact is that a team on a seven game or more losing streak in the NBA is an unfair coin, as thy cover 52% of the time, which becomes 53.4% when the opponent is less than .400. New Orleans is just 11-22 ATS the last two seasons vs. poor teams and getting out-scored by three points or more per game.
Brad Wilton
Thursday's comp play comes in Atlantic Ten action, as I will lay the double-digits with Rhode Island at home against La Salle.
The Explorers have regularly lost touch on the road, as they bring in a 3-8 spread mark their last 11 on the road. They have also had their issues when facing the Rams, as URI has won the last 4 series meetings, while going 3-1 against the spread in the 4 victories.
Rhode Island is coming off a loss at Dayton, but they have gone a perfect 8-0 straight up in Kingston thus far this season, and they have covered in 5 of their 7 lined home dates.
Until La Salle proves they can stay close away from Philadelphia, I say play against the Explorers on the road.
Rams big.
3* RHODE ISLAND