Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the San Antonio Spurs, who will rebound nicely after a terrible defensive game on Tuesday, when they dropped a 109-107 decision to the Milwaukee Bucks. It snapped a nine-game home winning streak, and the Spurs will come out pissed.
Expected to be back at full strength, San Antonio (30-8 ) will get it done on both ends of the floor. Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge, who was out due to a stomach illness, will be back, and I look for forward Kawhi Leonard to dominate in this one.
The Spurs placed six players in double-figure scoring against the Bucks, and now catch a Lakers team off an ugly 108-87 home loss Tuesday to the Portland Trail Blazers. Los Angeles scored just 30 points in the second half, and now has to face the angry Spurs who will be out to play tough D?
San Antonio beat the Lakers 116-107 at Staples Center on Nov. 18 in the first matchup, and should win and cover this one by about 20.
3* SPURS
Brett Atkins
Thursday night comp play is the Pistons plus the points at the Warriors.
This is not so much a play that is based on my belief in Detroit, but a play based on my disbelief that Golden State is able to cover a big number.
The oddsmakers have made it very difficult for the Golden State backers, as the Dubs have now failed 6 in a row, and 8 of their last 9 overall - all when listed as the chalk!
The Warriors have also failed the last pair of series meetings - including the first this season just before Christmas - and 3 of the last 4 overall against the Pistons.
Until the lines on Golden State come down a little, my suggestion is to keep going against them when favored by double-digits.
Take the Pistons plus the points.
2* DETROIT
Steve Janus
Pelicans -4½
Play Against - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BROOKLYN) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more. This system is 47-20 (70%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons.
Brandon Lee
Purdue vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa +5
I'm going to grab the points and back the Hawkeyes at home in a big time revenge spot against the Boilermakers. These two teams opened up Big Ten play against each other at Purdue and the Boilermakers rolled 89-67. I believe it has this line a bit inflated and also gives a big motivational edge to Iowa. Couple keys here. Purdue has only played two true road games and were fortunate to escape with a 76-75 win at Ohio State in their only conference road game to date. On top of that, the Boilermakers are in a prime letdown spot after their impressive 11-point win at home against Wisconsin. Carver-Hawkeye Arena is no easy place to get a win and the Hawkeyes are 9-2 at home and will have a stud freshman Tyler Cook back at full strength for this meeting with Purdue. Cook returned from injury in the first meeting, didn't start the game and really wasn't a factor. Iowa is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their previous game as a home favorite, while the Boilermakers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) after 15 or more games.
Jack Jones
UCLA vs. Colorado
Play: UCLA -5½
UCLA was clearly overvalued after starting the season 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS through its first 12 games. It began having inflated lines, and as a result the Bruins have gone 4-1 SU but 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
But after this five-game losing streak ATS, I think the price now right to back the Bruins as only 5.5-point road favorites over the Colorado Buffaloes here. They were double-digit favorites in four of their last five games with the only exception being at Oregon.
The Buffaloes haven't shown anything that would indicate they can hang with a 16-1 team like UCLA. They have opened 0-3 in Pac-12 play with a 16-point loss at Utah, a 1-point loss at lowly Arizona State, and a 9-point loss to Arizona. This is a team that lost at home 58-72 to Colorado State earlier this season as well.
UCLA has gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Colorado, including back-to-back blowout victories by 24 and 13 points. And this is the best team the Bruins have had in years. The Bruins are 9-2 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.
Dave Price
Hofstra vs. Elon
Play: Elon -2
The Key: This Elon team has impressed me quite a bit this season despite having just a 9-8 record. They won 85-80 at Northern Illinois, only lost 74-77 as 10-point dogs at Georgetown, and only lost 61-72 to Duke as 26-point dogs on a neutral in the non-conference. They are coming off a 72-61 home win over Towson State as 2.5-point favorites. I don't know why Hofstra is getting so much love here. They have lost 3 straight games in conference play with an upset home loss to William & Mary, and upset home loss to James Madison and a 6-point road loss at College of Charleston. The Pride are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Phoenix lost to the Pride by 4 and 2 points in their 2 meetings last year and want some revenge here.
Ray Monohan
Canucks vs. Flyers
Play: Under 5
The Canucks and Flyers battle on Thursday night and the Under here has value to work with.
This under has a lot to do with the Canucks and how they play. Vancouver averages just 2.37 goals per game overall, but when they take to the
road, they're horrendous. Vancouver is putting in just 2.15 goals per road contest this season, as they just haven't been able to find any sort of weapons to step up.
As for Philadelphia, they continue to struggle as of late. They can't seem to pick up any steam or momentum as of late, really reeling coming into this contest.
Some trends to note. Under is 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings. Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
Expect a very slow paced game here on Thursday, as this game plays at Vancouver's pace.
Matt Josephs
St. Mary's vs. Portland
Play: Portland +13½
St. Mary's has a road game against Gonzaga up next so who knows how focused they will be for a Portland team that has some talent. The Gaels are playing some great basketball shooting 50.1% from the field while holding opponents to just 58.1 points per contest. Portland has some talent offensively, but the defense has been an issue. The Pilots have lost three of their last five including an awful effort 70-42 at Santa Clara last time out. They lost by 10 to Dayton and 13 to Colorado. Last year, St. Mary's won by two on the road in this series. I think we get a Gaels win, but not by double digits.
3G-Sports
Dallas vs. Phoenix
Play: Under 202
Phoenix Tyson Chandler has been much improved in the post, him going head to head vs the 5's of of Dallas is in Phoenix's favor. The big men of Phoenix are going to have a huge advantage over the bigs as their grinding low post games will show up again. Dallas can get stuck with some very bad offensive possessions too oftentimes. Dallas hasn't been shooting the ball very well either, only hitting 43% of their shots on the season. Dallas has also not been able to hit the boards very well, and this will be much the same vs a team like Phoenix, that will exploit that. Look for a low scoring grind it out type of game here on Thursday night in the NBA.
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston -1½ +263 over NASHVILLE
Desperate for wins perhaps more than any team in the league because their projections were so high, the Predators hosted Vancouver on Tuesday and pulled a rabbit out of their hat with a 2-1 OT victory. Once again, Nashville was the second best team on the ice. The Predators have slowly transitioned from being a tough out every night with a collection of blue-collar, hard-working players to a run of the mill team with no identity or direction. The Preds used to be difficult to play against but that is no longer the case, as they run out four average lines with no star power whatsoever. Both Ryan Johansen and Flip Forsberg look lost half the time out there. Johansen was a loser in Columbus and he’s helping to turn this team into the Columbus of yester-years. Weak efforts are becoming the norm for this group and now they’ll try for consecutive wins after that aforementioned weak effort against the Canucks. Since late November, a span of 20 games, the Preds have won consecutive games just one time when they defeated New Jersey and Philadelphia on December 19 and 20th. Nashville is 3-9 against top-10 competition and 5-13 against top-16 competition. Nashville has outshot just one of its last seven opponents and just three of its last 15. Put the Preds high on our fade list. They are a weak team.
Boston is coming off a dominating performance in St. Louis, where they outscored the Blues, 5-3 and outshot them, 39-17. The B’s have picked up five out of a possible six points over their last three games, all on the road. Boston’s high level of play over that span coincides with the return of David Backes to the lineup. With Backes in the lineup, Boston is ranked #1 in the league in time of possession in the offensive end. Boston’s shots on goal average per game this season is 2nd in the NHL behind Pittsburgh, who is is 1st with 34.9 shots per game average. Boston has eight games this year in which they have recorded 40-or-more shots and they have three games in which they outshot their opponent by 25 or more shots. Both marks are tops in the NHL. If the Bruins show up here in the final game of a four-game trip, the Preds will absolutely allow them to impose their will. We have outlined the benefits of playing -1½ goals in this week’s podcast and we’re not coming off that strategy because when games do not go into OT, teams win by more than one goal far more often than not.
Anaheim -1½ +192 over COLORADO
You might be a hockey fan wondering why your team hasn’t been playing in a week. That kinda snuck up on everyone this year but we’re all over it. You see, every NHL team is taking at least one week off this season. These bye weeks were part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement that ended the last lockout. The players love them. Every few weeks, beginning in January and ending around March, at least one or two teams will get a week off. Players will be completely off with no practice during this break. There will be practice permitted after 4 p.m. local time on the fifth day if there is a game on the sixth day; otherwise no practice will be allowed on the fifth day.
We have discussed in the past the difficulties of being sharp after a layoff. Three or four days off is considered a long layoff by NHL standards and when teams are coming off that long a break, they are very often flat the first game out. Now throw in no practice time and five days away from the rink and the difficulties of getting your head (and body) back into the gruelling grind becomes an even bigger obstacle. Colorado is having a miserable year and they’re coming off their “bye week” tonight”. For a team that can’t get out of its own way, five days without practice to an already fragile set of minds isn’t likely to serve them well. The Ducks have to be licking their chops here.
Anaheim has won four of five with only loss over that stretch occurring against Minnesota by a score of 2-1. The Ducks are coming off a 2-0 win over Dallas and have now allowed just four goals against over their last four games. This wager is more about fading the Avs but it is good to know that the Ducks are a heavy team, meaning that once they have the puck, it is difficult to get it away from them. Figure the Avs to be chasing the Ducks around all night long. We also love that Semyon Varlamov is back in net after missing seven straight and 10 of 12. He’s not likely to be sharp either.
SPORTS WAGERS
MOREHEAD ST +4 over Belmont
Belmont is in first place in the Ohio Valley with a 9-4 overall record and a 3-0 record in the conference. The Bruins have won five in a row and eight of their last nine games so their stock is through the roof right now. The Bruins also finished in first place in the conference last season with a 12-4 record but got upset in their conference tournament opener by Austin Peay, who went on to win the entire OVC Tournament. It was a disappointing end to the season and it would appear that the Bruins are even more determined this year. However, we have some concerns. For one, the Bruins have no depth. Their starters are playing a ton of minutes and that could lead to trouble should they get into foul trouble. Furthermore, the Bruins have played an easier schedule than Morehead State. Belmont’s SOS ranks 225th in the country while the Pioneers SOS ranks 125th.
Many expected Morehead State to take a step backwards last year. They had lost four starters and they did need some time to come together, but by OVC play, this was a very good team. Heading into the Ohio Valley conference tournament, the Eagles won six straight games. Their NCAA Tournament dreams were thwarted by Tennessee-Martin in the semifinals of the conference tournament, but Coach Sean Woods took his team to the CBI and made the most of the opportunity. After cruising past Siena, Duquesne and Ohio, Morehead State was in the CBI Finals. They won the first game of the best of three series at home against Nevada, but lost the next two in Reno, including a thrilling 85-82 overtime loss in the decisive game three. Now it is time to build off of that success and while their overall record is just 6-10, the Pioneers are 2-1 in the conference and a win here ties them with Belmont at 3-1.
The Pioneers have had two OT losses this year. That’s a four-game swing so instead of being 6-10, they could just as easily be 8-8 and 3-0 in the conference. Morehead State played both Purdue and Pitt to make up two other losses. After that heartbreaking OT loss to open OVC play, the Pioneers have responded with back-to-back victories. This is a resilient, determined and very focused host that does a lot of things right and while they may have the second best collection of talent in this matchup, they have an intangible edge that cannot be measured in stats. This is a live pup that can win outright.
NORTHEASTERN -10 over Drexel
Northeastern went into Drexel just 10 days ago as a -4½-point choice and won by five after the game went into OT. Many folks played the chalk that day and got very lucky to cash their tickets after the OT. Thing is, those that played Northeastern and spotted -4½ points are not going to be anxious to spot more than twice that here with that last game being so fresh in their minds. The Dragons probably should have won that game and now they’re getting double digits just 10 days later? Thing is, college sports is not like the pros. What gets lost is that these are 18 and 19-year-old kids having the time of their lives. Playing on the road and staying in hotels or just traveling with the team is part of the process that is so much fun. Focus is almost always higher when a team plays at home so when Northeastern traveled to Philadelphia to play the Dragons early last week, it was a “road trip” that occurred the day after New Year’s and we rarely put emphasis on scores that time of year. Now it’s the Dragons turn to travel to play their 11th game on the road this year and this is likely their toughest opponent so far. The Dragons have lost to Monmouth (78-65), Rutgers (87-66), Niagara (93-74), Rider (90-82), Penn (75-67) and James Madison (78-67) on the road and they are absolutely going to lose here too with the only question being by how much.
Drexel’s last game was against CAA leader UNC Wilmington, who is 4-0 in the conference. That game was at Drexel University and the Dragons were a 12-point dog at home. They lost 90-72 and now they’ll go on the road to play another 4-0 team in the conference only this time the Dragons are taking back less points here than they were at home. That provides us with this opportunity.
The Huskies defense is the best defense the CAA has to offer. They are always making shots difficult for the opposition and they don’t let up for a second. The Huskies already have a win in UConn (a team that beat Temple last night) and a win over Michigan State. Northeastern has played 11 games on the road so far and just five at home. Despite the difficult schedule, Northwestern is 11-5 overall and it is also 5-0 at home with recent victories of 20 and 36 points over William & Mary and Delaware respectively. Drexel is not a difficult team to whack. This time around, Northeastern will be paying attention, unlike they were 10 days ago back in Philly. Lay the points.
UCSB +6 -over UC Irvine
UC Irvine has started off 2-0 in the Big West and raised its record to .500 overall. They have now won four games in a row. The Anteaters won their Big West opener, 82-67 over Long Beach State and came back to whack Hawaii 84-56 in their latest. Cal Irvine raced out to a 19-point halftime lead against Hawaii and then coasted in the second half. Hawaii has dropped off from last year but it was still an impressive win. The Anteaters are 5-1 ATS against their last six Big West opponents and 17-5 ATS against teams under .500. UC Irvine is 9-9 this year but three of those losses occurred against ranked teams, St. Mary’s, Arizona and then #25 California. Cal Irvine very simply brings the vastly superior resume into this game and thus, the market will be all over this favorite and it’s easy to understand why.
Cal Barbara has been off for eight days. The last time we saw them, they were opening up conference play against UC Davis and got steamrolled 73-47. The Gauchos are 0-1 in the Big West and 2-11 overall. UCSB’s two victories this season have come against Sonoma State and CSU Bakersfield. The Gauchos are also 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. On top of all that, the Gauchos have some issues with players regarding eligibility. No matter how you break this game down, it is damn near impossible to make a case for the dog getting a measly six points but we’re not in the business of breaking down games.
Yesterday we pointed out another game that looked too good to be true when a 13-2 Dayton team went into UMass as a -6½ point choice and lost outright. This one absolutely falls into the “looks too good to be true” category also. There are many strategies we employ and one of them is being able to recognize when the odds makers are hanging a proverbial carrot over our heads. That is certainly the case here and we’re urging you not to take the bait. The Big West is a weak conference, which means spotting road points with any team in this conference is very risky business that will likely not turn out well. The right play here is to take the points and that's precisely how we'll proceed.
Power Sports
Idaho vs. Weber St.
Pick: Weber St.
We're heading to Big Sky country here for what is a battle of conference rivals. I give Damian Lillard's alma mater the edge in this one, as do the oddsmakers, but the spread isn't nearly as large as it ought to be. Weber State is off a big win in its last game, an 84-81 upset of Montana. That matchup took place all the way back on New Year's Eve, so the Wildcats certainly won't be able to say they're not well-rested. All the time off should also prevent any kind of letdown from the win over Montana (their top challenger in the Big Sky). I look for the home team to roll in this one.
Idaho has had to play twice in the New Year and neither time did they cover. They lost at home to Montana, 70-57, exactly one week ago. Then, they did manage to snap a three-game losing streak w/ an 83-81 win over Montana State. That was just the second win for the Vandals in the past seven games. The other was against a non-DI opponent. On the road this year, things have gone pretty poorly w/ a 1-5 SU record, due in large part to averaging only 63.5 points per game.
Weber State is the favorite to win this league and now that they've won at Montana, there's a decent chance they'll be favored in every game the rest of the way. The Wildcats have gotten to play just FOUR home games thus far, but are averaging a whopping 95.7 PPG in them. Their average margin of victory here in Ogden is +31.2 PPG! They split w/ Idaho last year (home team won both games), so expect the favorite to take this one seriously, especially off the long break.
David Banks
UCLA @ Colorado
Pick: UCLA -6.5
Fourth-ranked UCLA rebounded from its two-point loss to Oregon with three straight Pac-12 victories over Oregon State, Cal, and Stanford. The Bruins should be careful Thursday night when they head to Colorado where they will face the 10-6 Buffaloes. Colorado started the season 10-3 with wins over a No. 22 Texas and 13th-ranked Xavier. Unfortunately for head coach Tad Boyle, the Buffaloes have not played well in their first three games in conference play. They dropped three straight to Utah, Arizona State, and 17th-ranked Arizona. Now, Boyle and company have to face one of the favorites to win the NCAA tournament.
For the Bruins, it’s all about Ball, Lonzo Ball that is. The fabulous freshman makes his entire team better. The 6-6 point guard averages 14.7 points and eight assists per game feeding the likes of T.J. Leaf, who averages a team-high 17.4 points, and Bryce Alford, who averages 16.8. The Bruins are third nationally in scoring averaging just under 93 points per game and six players average in double figures. Head coach Steve Alford has his best team, but the Bruins cannot take Colorado lightly.
UCLA (16-1) will have to slow down Colorado point guard Derrick White, the Buffaloes leading scorer (15.8 ppg). The 6-5 senior leads the team in assists (4.1) and averages nearly four rebounds per game. Xavier Johnson (14.7 ppg), George King (10.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and 6-9 Wesley Gordon (8.0 rpg) give Colorado experience up front. They will have to play smart against one of the most athletic teams in the country.
Jimmy Boyd
Notre Dame at Miami
Play: Miami -4.5
I'm backing the Hurricanes at home as a short home favorite against the Fighting Irish. I think we are getting some great value here as Notre Dame is getting all kinds of love riding a 5-game winning streak, which includes a 3-0 start in ACC play with wins over Pitt, Louisville and Clemson. The thing is they could have lost all 3, as all 3 wins came by 7 or less. I see a big letdown here for the Irish against what will be a highly motivated Miami team that will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 55-70 loss at Syracuse last time out. The big key here is Miami has been at their best at home, where they are a perfect 8-0 on the season, which includes a dominant 81-63 win over NC State in their ACC opener. The Hurricanes also have a big edge in rest here. This will be just their 2nd game in 8 days, while Notre Dame will be playing their 3rd game during this same stretch of time. Irish are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins and 2-11 in their last 13 road games after covering the spread in their last game. Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 6 or less.
Ian Cameron
Detroit at Dallas
Play: Over 5.5
Detroit has found its offense in recent games. The return of Justin Abdelkader and defenseman Mike Green (a better offensive defenseman than a defensive one) from injury has resulted in 3+ goals in eight of their L10 games (6-3-1 O/U). However, Detroit is struggling at the other end of the ice due to subpar goaltending and defensive play; injuries to stalwart defensemen Brendan Smith and Niklas Kronwall a main reason why. The Red Wings have surrendered 34, 35 and 43 shots on goal in their last three games and that spells trouble in terms of keeping your goals against numbers down. Dallas remains a below average defensive team. They’ve given up three goals per game on the season which ranks 28th in the NHL and making matters worse for the Stars is the fact they just lost one of their better young defensemen in Jamie Oleksiak to injury. From a season-long perspective, neither team has trended strong towards the over (Detroit 18-17 O/U, Dallas 19-23 O/U) but injuries and current form suggest tonight’s game will feature plenty of shots and more than a few that hit the back of the net.