Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, January 19th, 2017

DAVE COKIN

MONTANA AT PORTLAND ST
PLAY: MONTANA -2.5

One of my quicker capsules here. It’s just one of those games where one team’s vulnerability should get exploited by the opponent.

Stated simply, Portland State is a bad defensive team. When the Vikings face a team that runs an efficient offense, chances are they’re going to struggle. Montana has it rolling right now. The Grizzlies have won four in a row, and they’re establishing themselves as a legit contender to win the Big Sky.

The visitors should get their share of good looks in this game barring an unexpectedly improved defensive effort by Portland State. Based on their current form, that should result in some ways scores for the road team, enough to get the win and cover this evening. I’m siding with Montana tonight.

Mike Lundin

Mavs vs. Heat
Play: Mavs +2

Both the Dallas Mavericks and the Miami Heat are coming off upset wins as underdogs, but I like the Mavs to be the team to come out ahead of this clash.

The Mavs made it three wins in a row when they defeated the Bulls 99-98 at Chicago on Tuesday. They had an atrocious start to the season but have played much much better in recent week's as they've gotten healthier. Seth Curry is 9-of-16 from 3-point range in the last four games and Wesley Matthews has averaged 16 points over the last three contests.

The Heat had dropped four straight games prior to a 109-103 upset as a 7-point underdog against Houston on Tuesday. They're however just 1-6 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and it will take more than one win to convince me they've turned a corner.

The road team is 21-5-2 ATS in the last 28 meetings in this series. Take the points on the visitors here.

Matt Josephs

St. Mary's -22½

St. Mary's is coming off a bad loss to their rival Gonzaga and a poor offense in Pacific comes to town. The Gaels have beaten teams by 20 points or more five times already this season and it's their first home game since January 5th. Pacific is coming off a 21 point loss at San Francisco to go with a 29 point road loss at BYU already during conference play. They were blown out at UMass earlier this year and crushed by the Bruins to open the season up. Pacific has shot 40% or less in three of their last four and won't be able to find their offense in Moraga. The Tigers have covered just one of their eight road games and 12 of their last 33 away from home as well. I think this one gets real ugly.

Jim Feist

Wolves vs. Clippers
Play: Wolves +2½

Minnesota is young and can score, and they are playing better defense under first-year coach Tom Thibodeau. Minnesota is 8-3 ATS following a straight up loss, plus 10-4 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The L.A. Clippers are without Blake Griffin and now star guard Chris Paul and the team is 3-9 without them. The Clippers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest. The Road team is 23-7-1 ATS in the last 31 meetings and the Timberwolves are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Los Angeles.

Robert Ferringo

Elon (-6.5) over Drexel

Drexel is coming off a rare win, blowing out fellow CAA bottom-feeder Delaware 76-60 over the weekend. Now they have to go on the road, and I expect them to come back to reality. Only two of their 11 losses this year have been by fewer than eight points, and this team hasn't been competitive on the road in league play. First-year head coach Zach Spiker is doing what he can. But the fact is that the Dragons are completely rebuilding their program in the post-Bruiser Flint era and this team is simply overmatched. Elon is a mid-tier CAA team. But they've been pretty good at home, beating Towson and Hofstra - two teams much better than the Dragons - by double digits in North Carolina. Drexel starts two freshmen and they are a young, small team. I think they are primed for a letdown after their big win and they are going to try to beat Elon at their own game, relying on shooting and scoring rather than defense and athleticism. I don't see that going well for the visitors here. Elon should win going away.

Mike Rose

Arizona St at UCLA
Play: Over 182

The UCLA Bruins own the nation’s No. 3 ranked scoring offense that averages nearly 93 points per game. The Arizona State Sun Devils are giving up nearly 83 points per game. All that adds up to the home team putting a ton of points on the scoreboard on Thursday night when the No. 3 ranked team in the land attempts to cover an inflated line in a prime look-ahead spot against an inferior opponent.

The following are the point totals allowed by Arizona State in its five Pac-12 games: 93, 81, 77, 88 and 91. None of those opponents had close to the offensive arsenal UCLA will bring to the table in this matchup. The Bruins have already surpassed the century mark six times this season. I fully expect them to log one of their highest point totals of the season regardless of having a huge tilt with Arizona on deck.

ASU has played to five straight overs with an average of 165.2 points per game put on the board. The over has also cashed each of the last five times these rivals hooked up in Pauley Pavilion. Look for Alford and company to go bonkers against this defense early, but for ASU to get theirs as well to push this one over the total with time to spare in the second half.

Tony Finn

Maryland at Iowa
Play: Iowa -2

The Maryland Terrapins aim to take sole possession of first place in the Big 10 tonight when they square off against the Iowa Hawkeye. The event is scheduled to tipoff at 7:00 p.m. ET on the Carver-Hawkeye Arena court at Iowa City.

Maryland has been everything but consistent and spectacular this season yet they are in position to take over the top spot in the conference standings with a win tonight. All they have to do is take care of business at Carver-Hawk Arena and score more points than host Iowa. This is easier said than done. The Terrapins have won three straight, that includes two road tests, in a seven-point victory over Michigan 77-70 and a win by a half-dozen over Illinois 62-56, victories that have pushed them back into the Top-25. And while a road win is a win is a win... the victories were not worthy of returning the team into the national polls.

A first place Big 10 squad that is fortunate to be ranked?

How pedestrian is the Big 10 this season?

Average is the best word to use when describing the league overall.

In truth if tonight's game plays out like I expect it to the top school in the football conference will be the No #17 Wisconsin Badgers when Iowa does in fact move their conference mark to 4-3 on the season.

Maryland has won at a 90 percent clip since being embarrassed 73-59 versus the Pittsburgh Panthers in late November, a Big 10/ACC clash. The Terps head into this Wednesday night ESPN matchup a perfect 4-0 in true road games this season and this variable in combination with Iowa losing by 35 points in their last game, versus Northwestern on Sunday, nearly spotted Iowa (-2, 150) points on their home floor.

The Terrapins (16-2, 4-1 Big-10) are uber dependent on Tony Cowan who is coming off a career high scoring output in the schools win over the Illini in their last tilt.

Jaylen Brantley has assisted Maryland in winning their last two league events. Brantley and his teammates are not going to overwhelm the Big 10 score-keepers nor pack the boxscore with amazing plays or big game totals. Cowan, Brantley and the rest of the Mark Turgeon troupe have average offensive abilities and not one player on this Terps team -- can be depended on to create or make -- a big shot.

Maryland is also short a key piece to their success with forward Michal Cekovsky missing the team's last five games to an ankle injury. Cekovsky is only a 10 points per game scorer but he is a necessary warm body in the frontcourt. While reports have Cekovsky dressing for tonight's game he is neither 100 percent or in adequate game condition to contribute more than a dozen minutes of court time.

The Hawkeyes 35-point loss to the Wildcats on Sunday followed a win over No. 22 Purdue, an impressive 83-78 victory. It is important to note that while the Big 10 offers a group of teams with average talent -- each of the conference squads are a tough out -- on their home court. Behind roughneck Iowa guard Peter Jok is is more than reasonable to expect the Hawkeyes to be prepared and ready to defeat Maryland on familiar wood tonight.

Iowa has something that Maryland doesn't and that is a go to floor general. Guard Peter Jok is averaging 22 points per game and leads the Big 10 in scoring. Expect to see Jok to bounce-back from his porous performance versus Northwestern. Jok was a mere 2-of-9 shooting from the field against the Wildcats. After the loss the Hawks bench boss Fran McCaffery told the media that his high scoring backcourt leader was playing through some back spasms that affected his performance. Jok will dress and start tonight versus the Terrapins. Iowa could see the return of Dale Jones to active duty. Jones practiced for the first time since fracturing his wrist November 17. With Tyler Cook back at full speed, a possible return of Jones to the team's rotation, Iowa is easily the team to beat tonight on Carver court. The Hawkeyes have won seven straight games at home and when presented with a challenge like tonight, facing a ranked opponent, they have won four of their last five.

How does any sports analysis, betting consultant, recommend a play on the McCaffrey crew following a 30-plus point loss to Northwestern? To any school for that matter?

Fran McCaffery is how and why.

As quickly as the team could get off the bus on Sunday night the coaching staff was planning for a Monday practice session. A practice that wasn't much different than after a team win. There was, however, coach-speak on Monday reminding their kids that protecting home court was crucial in securing a spot in the March Madness tournament.

McCaffery and his staff will have their players ready to win their eighth straight home game tonight and do so with an oddsmakers gift at a near pick'em.

Wunderdog

Maryland +2.5

Maryland is 16-2, including 6-0 away from home, and the Terrapins come off a 62-56 win at Illinois on Saturday while holding the Fighting Illini to just a .375 shooting percentage. Anthony Cowan led the Terps with 19 points and Melo Trimble and Jaylen Brantley added 12 points apiece in what turned out to be a grind-it-out contest. Iowa is just 3-11 ATS its last 14 conference games and 7-18-1 ATS its last 26 games overall dating to last season. The Hawkeyes suffered their worst loss of the season on Sunday 89-54 at Northwestern in a letdown situation after beating Purdue. Iowa made only 18-of-51 shots against the Wildcats, including 4-of-17 from three-point range, while the defense allowed Northwestern a .597 field goal percentage. Maryland has covered the number six of its last seven games and four of its last five road games. Iowa is also just 2-8-1 ATS as a home favorite.

David Banks

Timberwolves @ Clippers
Pick: Timberwolves +1.5

How have the Clippers been dealing with the loss of Blake Griffin? Well, they have won six games in a row prior to their Martin Luther King Day tussle with Oklahoma City. On Thursday, they welcome Minnesota and one of the league’s best young lineups to town. The two teams have played just once thus far this season, a 119-105 win by the Clippers on Nov. 12. Los Angeles has been without Griffin since December 18 and will remain without him until he is cleared to play after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery.

Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan have stepped up their games to make up for the loss of Griffin. Jordan scored 24 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in a win over the Lakers last week. It was the first 20-20 game by a Clipper since 2004. Paul has been his normal All-Star self averaging 17.7 points and 9.8 assists per game. The Clippers have been getting quality minutes from J.J. Redick, the team’s third-leading scorer (15.6 ppg) and guard Austin Rivers (10.9 ppg).

The Timberwolves have arguably the best young lineup in the NBA. Third-year player Andrew Wiggins leads the team in scoring averaging 21.9 points per game. Seven-footer Karl Anthony Towns was the NBA Rookie of the Year last season and averages 21.8 points and 11.9 rebounds per game this year. Third-year point guard Zach LaVine (20.1 ppg) gives Minnesota three 20-point-plus per game scorers. The T-Wolves need to become more consistent on the road. They have won just 5 of their 19 games away from home this year. Line is short.

SPORTS WAGERS

TORONTO -1½ +257 over N.Y. Rangers

The Maple Leafs took six minor penalties each time in games against Montreal and the New York Rangers three and four games ago respectively. They lost 5-3 to the Habs, who scored twice on the PP but they fortunately beat the Rangers, who failed to score on six PP opportunities. Mike Babcock obviously addressed that, as you are not likely to win when taking that many penalties for two reasons. One, the opposition is very likely to score and two, you’ll be playing shorthanded for 12 minutes, which means 12 minutes of 60 minutes where scoring a goal is virtually off the table. It’s also draining to kill penalties. Nonetheless, Babcock, like he usually does, got his message across and the Maple Leafs have taken just one minor penalty in back-to-back games against Ottawa and Buffalo and won both times. If the Maple Leafs defeated the Rangers in New York when taking six penalties, chances are good they’ll beat them in Toronto when taking a bunch less penalties. Aside from that, the Maple Leafs are one of the hottest teams in the league, they’re confident and they’re winning games when they aren’t playing as well as they can. Toronto has played just six games since January 3 and so this is the first time since then that they will play on one day’s rest, which is the optimal time off between games. Expect the Leafs to be very sharp here.

Offensively, the Rangers are dangerous as hell. Both Mika Zibanejad and Pavel Buchnevich are back from injuries after sitting out for an extended period of time. Rick Nash is also back. Offense is not the problem. The problem is that the Rags are in the midst of a crisis, acknowledging what is going on with their franchise bedrock, Henrik Lundqvist and how the steepest period of decline in the 34-year-old netminder’s career has sent the entire team into a chaotic three-game losing streak that is more like a tailspin. The last time the Rangers won, they needed five goals and also had to rally from a 4-1 deficit. They were down 7-3 to the Stars last game out heading to the third period before a furious rally just fell short. Lundqvist has been giving up goals by the bushel. He was yanked from Tuesday’s 7-6 loss to the Stars after allowing seven goals on 27 shots. He has given up 16 goals on 76 shots over his previous seven periods, and it’s creating a whirlwind of confusion in front of him. The Rangers defense is not difficult to pressure into making mistakes. Every player on that Leafs’ bench is absolutely aware of Lundqvist’s struggles and they are going to shoot, shoot and shoot some more.

The more we play these NHL favorites -1½, the more we like them. One winner out of three makes money. Two if three shows a big profit margin and so we are going to continue to play them frequently because when a favorite wins in regulation (or a dog for that matter) it is by more than one goal far more often than not. If the Leafs win this one in regulation, we’re pretty damn sure it’ll be by more than one goal.

CALGARY -1½ +264 over Nashville

Calgary is coming off a 5-2 victory over Florida but had two goals called back by extremely narrow offside calls. The point is that the Flames put seven pucks behind Roberto Luongo, which took a weight off their shoulders, as they had scored just five goals over their previous four games. What’s even more interesting is that Johnny Gaudreau had zero points in that game and so did his center, Sam Bennett. Gaudreau has one point in his last five games and a mere three in his last 10 games. Incredibly, Sam Bennett has zero points in his last 10 games. How can that be? When that pair inevitably starts scoring, the Flames will be a force because of their outstanding defense. Calgary has allowed 22, 27, 27, 29, 13, 18, 25 and 28 shots on net in eight of its past nine games. Midway through the third period on Tuesday, Calgary had held Florida to 12 shots on net. The Flames are playing at a high level right now and this opponent is not a difficult one to defeat.

The Predators are coming off a 1-0 loss in Vancouver on Tuesday. They are one of two teams in the NHL that has failed to pick up points in four straight games this year with Arizona being the other team. Nashville’s last three victories occurred against Colorado, Boston and Vancouver and all three were fortunate one-goal victories. Against Boston, the Preds were outshot 36-19 but won, 2-1. Against Colorado, they fell behind 2-0 but rallied to win, 3-2. The Preds last victory before those three was a misleading 6-1 victory over Tampa Bay in a game the Preds were badly out-chanced in and badly outplayed in too. Tampa outshot Nashville 28-19 and out-chanced them, 20-12. The Preds are 3-9 against top-10 competition and 9-14 against top-16. They have played the easiest schedule in the league and are often the second best team on the ice. Every team in this league can be a tough out from time-to-time while others are always a tough out. The Preds used to be the latter but right now they’re a team we love to fade because they’re so beatable and don’t seem to care one bit.

SPORTS WAGERS

Jacksonville St +9½ over BELMONT

We have targeted Belmont before by virtue of their propensity to be overvalued given their prestige and prominence within the Ohio Valley Conference and their familiarity with many as a regular in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. We will spare the introductions of both teams but what we will touch upon is that we targeted Belmont in this exact scenario a year ago when the Gamecocks squared off with the Bruins taking back inflated points and achieved success. We would follow it up again when the Gamecocks curated the hosting duties with even more points a month later and yet again, Jacksonville State would cover. If it isn’t broken we won’t try to fix it but what does need to be fixed is the market assessment of the Gamecocks in how they stack up to the Bruins. J-State has covered in their previous three and even managed to pull off an upset at home in 2015 when they took down Belmont 72-70. Now the Gamecocks come to town against a Belmont team that has won seven in a row with its stock through the roof..

Nevertheless, there are many compelling arguments against spotting the points. First, Jacksonville State edges out Belmont in the field goal percentage department and when it comes to draining the trey, well J-State is one of the best in the country, as they hit 39% from the beyond the arc. Furthermore, the Gamecocks can certainly stay in this game by virtue of the fact they commit less turnovers, play stronger defense and outboard the Bruins both on offense and defense. Additionally, the Gamecocks have the deeper bench so they can play a more physical and robust style of basketball for a sustained period of time and wear down the thinner Bruins as they do so. Once again, Jacksonville State is in line to hang around which is not a good thing for the host because this team can hurt them in a multitude of ways. When you toss in the fact that Belmont is ranked 22nd in the country in terms of luck, the bubble is inevitably set to burst. Given how Jacksonville State matches up with Belmont, this situation creates a scenario where the Gamecocks can play the role of the proverbial thumbtack while allowing us to take back inflated points.

Ben Burns

Suns vs. Cavaliers
Play: Suns +12½

Off a blowout loss against the Warriors a few days ago, many are likely going to back the Cavs here. The logic being that the Cavs will be in an angry mood and looking to take it out on somebody. However, that logic hasn't exactly held water in recent seasons. In fact, the Cavs are only 12-21-1 ATS the last few seasons, when off a double-digit loss. In fact, 15 of those times, they lost outright in their next game. With the Spurs on deck, it figures to be easy to look past the Suns. Phoenix has covered five of its last six games though and is 10-3 ATS (8-5 SU!) against teams from the East. The Suns gave the Cavs all they could handle at Phoneix, less than two weeks ago. Cleveland ended up winning by only four. Don't be surprised if this one also proves closer than most will be expecting.

Brandon Lee

Gonzaga vs. Santa Clara
Play: Santa Clara +13

I'm backing the Broncos at home against No. 4 Gonzaga. I just think we are seeing an inflated line here on the Bulldogs, who come in having yet to lose (17-0) and having won each of their 5 conference games by at least 15 points. Santa Clara isn't likely to hand Gonzaga their first loss, but I think they can keep this one close enough to cover. The Broncos have won 4 of 5 and are a respectable 7-3 at home this season. Santa Clara also has been a tough out for the Bulldogs, covering in each of the last 7 meetings. Last year they were a similarly priced 15-point home dog and lost by just 2-points (77-79). Gonzaga is just 17-33 ATS in their last 50 road games after 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after 3 straight games where they shot 53% or better from the field.

Scott Rickenbach

Middle Tennessee vs. Florida Int
Play: Over 127½

The Golden Panthers could be without Donte McGill again tonight but, including the game he got hurt, he has now missed about two and a half games and yet Florida International has still averaged 69 points per game in these three games and they were all on the road! Now the Panthers are back home where they are hitting 48% of their field goal attempts on the season. Also, FIU's defense has been a concern. Prior to their ugly low-scoring loss at UTSA Saturday, the Golden Panthers had allowed 4 straight opponents to connect on 47% or better from the field. Florida International gave up an average of 81 points per game in those 4 games and now host a 15-3 Middle Tennessee team that is averaging 75 points per game on the season. The Blue Raiders offense will prove to be too much for the FIU defense but the real value i this game appears to be with the total because I do expect the Golden Panthers to continue their high-scoring ways in home games. The Panthers are a bad team but they can but up big points and, even though their game at UTEP went into double OT they did have 66 points at the end of regulation. The over is 4-1 in FIU's conference games this season and the over is on a 9-3 run when the Golden Panthers are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Blue Raiders games this season where they are off of a win against a conference rival.