Dave Price
Miami Heat -2.5
Miami beat Houston 109-103 at home on Tuesday night to end a four-game skid. This team played a brutal schedule with eight of their previous nine games on the road prior to that victory over the Rockets. I think we're getting the Heat at a short price tonight against a Dallas Mavericks team that is just 6-16 on the road this season. The Heat have had the Mavs' number, going 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings. The Heat are a perfect 10-0 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Wesley Scott
Rice vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: Louisiana Tech -5
Offense meets defense in this match-up. Rice is averaging 83.3 points per game on the road vs L. Tech's 59.6 points allowed at home. Rice is giving up 76.6 points per game on the road this year vs L.Tech's 77.8 points scored per game at home this year. L. Tech is riding a two game winning streak. Beating Charlotte and ODU on the road. Playing better on the year statistically at home, I like Louisiana Tech in this one. Rice can score the ball, but they lack on the defensive end and aren't as good on the road, as their record shows.
Jack Jones
Nuggets vs. Spurs
Play: Spurs -11½
The San Antonio Spurs will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and will be ready to go tonight against the Denver Nuggets, a team they thumped 127-99 on the road in their first and only meeting this season.
The Nuggets are starting to get some respect from oddsmakers after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. But they took advantage of a soft schedule and beat the Pacers, Magic and Lakers. They will clearly be stepping up in class here.
And the Nuggets are starting to have the injuries pile up again after getting healthy. They are expected to be without key contributors Wilson Chandler, Gary Harris and Darrell Arthur tonight. Plus, both Danilo Gallinari and Nikola Jokic are nursing ankle injuries, though both are expected to play.
Denver is 3-17 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. San Antonio is 16-5 ATS versus terrible defensive teams that allow 103 or more points per game this season. The purs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. San Antonio is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.
Jimmy Boyd
Maryland vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -2½
I like the value here with the Hawkeyes as a short home favorite against the Terrapins. Maryland has surprised a lot of people with their 16-2 record and 4-1 start in Big Ten play, but it's not like the Terrapins are blowing teams out. They have been very fortunate in close games and it's only a matter of time before things don't go their way. I believe there's a good chance it comes tonight at Iowa.
The Hawkeyes have been an up and down team this season, as you would expect for a team that is playing so many freshmen. Iowa is 3-3 in the Big Ten and there's been a theme so far. Iowa has lost all 3 games on the road and won all 3 games at home, including a 83-78 win over Purdue in their last home game. This is also a huge bounce back spot for Iowa coming off an ugly 54-89 loss at Northwestern.
Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games with a 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. It's also worth pointing out Maryland is team that loves to shoot the 3-point shot, they are averaging 8 made 3-pointers on 23 attempts/game. Hawkeyes are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots/game.
Ray Monohan
Capitals -135
The Capitals head into St. Louis on Thursday and while this is a huge test for them, getting them at this line any time has value. Washington had went on a 6 game span where they outscored the opposition 26-3.
Then, after leading the Penguins 3-0, the walls came crashing in on their defense in what was eventually an 8-7 overtime loss in one of the most epic games. However, the Capitals still showed plenty in that loss as they battled back twice from down 2 goals.
Washington is just too dangerous offensively. With how many weapons this team has, they're just too tough to slow down. St. Louis is very vulnerable on the defensive end, giving up 3 goals per game, which doesn't bode well for them here.
Some trends to note. Capitals are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. Central. Capitals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.
Expect Washington to really have their way in the Blues zone, as St. Louis just isn't good enough to withstand here defensively.
LV Traders
California at Oregon
Pick: California
As for tonight's free pick, let's go with the Cal Bears. Cuonzo Martin's crew is playing well and is difficult to pull away from. They're so good defensively and are deliberate with the basketball. Cal has the ability disrupt flow and control tempo... it's a tough team and always has to be considered as a dog. It's tough to pass on Cal +9 anywhere against anybody. Obviously, since we're doing in Eugene against the explosive and well coached Ducks.
Will Rogers
Ottawa vs. Columbus
Pick: Columbus
The set-up: The 23-15-4 Ottawa Senators are on the road to take on the 30-9-4 Columbus blue Jackets on Thursday night. Ottawa opened a three-game road trip with a 6-4 win over the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday and will be looking for its fourth win in five games.Columbus saw its 16-game run end with a shutout loss to the Washington Capitals back on Jan. 5 and has alternated wins and losses over its last six games.
Ottawa: The Senators have won five of their last seven games with Columbus but Ottawa defenseman Dion Phaneuf realizes this is not the same Blue Jackets team that has reached the playoffs only twice in franchise history. "They're at the top of the standings for a reason," he said. "They play hard, they play with speed, they play with structure." The Senators have rediscovered their offense during the recent surge that's come after a four-game skid from Dec. 27 to Jan. 7. Ottawa has 17 goals over the last four games, with 15 coming in the three wins. "We've asked our players to improve since Christmas at driving the net and paying the price around the net and we certainly did that with the goals that we had," Senators head coach Guy Boucher said of the power surge.
Columbus: Jenner and Dubinsky scored 35 seconds apart late in the first period to erase a one-goal deficit and Columbus went on to defeat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-1 on Tuesday. Jenner, a 30-goal scorer in 2015-16, has only nine in 43 games. However, he's scored in each of his last three games and has three in his last three games versus Ottawa. With Jenner starting to come around, a more welcome sight for Columbus was goalie Sergei Bobrovsky's return after missing three games because of an illness. He finished with 24 saves for his league-leading 27th win. If the Blue Jackets are indeed for real and plan to make a deep playoff run, they will lean on Bobrovsky to lead the way. Bobrovsky may have the inside track to win his second Vezina Trophy (27-6-2 on the season with a 1.97 GAA & .932 save percentage) and if so, his outstanding play at Nationwide Arena might be the key. He has won his last nine home games, allowing only 12 goals for a 1.33 goals-against average and .952 save percentage. Overall at home, he is 16-3-0 with a 1.79 GAA, .940 save percentage.
The pick: Bobrovsky's back between the pipes and Columbus has won 10 of its last 11 games at Nationwide Arena to improve to 17-4-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents 3.77-to-2.09 GPG. The Blue Jackets are the play.
Brandon Shively
Denver vs. San Antonio
Pick: Under
This is a super high total for a Spurs game. I got burned a few days ago on a Spurs Under as there were more free throws attempted at halftime than what the Timberwolves were averaging a game. It was just a crazy game, but now back to why I like this game Under.
At any point in the market, there becomes a time to buy low or sell high. With a total this high, it’s a good time to buy in on the Under. Denver has now scored 125 points or more in their last 3 games, and have won all 3.
The UNDER is 5-0 since 2008 when NBA road dogs are coming off 3 wins and scored 120+ points in all 3 wins. The last 3 have went Under by 53, 38.5, and 24.5 points. The Warriors actually played the Spurs last year when this rare angle was applied and the score was 87-79 where the total was 219.
I see Gregg Popovich and the Spurs really wanting to control the tempo here on their homecourt. He knows Denver has been running and Popovich might be the best at being able to have his team play to the best disadvantage to the opponent.
Dave Essler
Davidson / La Salle Over 155
No clue what's this line's going to do - but IMO both teams get to 80 here. Giannini has LaSalle playing quicker than they have over the years, which has certainly helped their offense this season, but their defense - not so much. They're one of the worst perimeter defensive teams in the nation, and as fate would have it Davidson makes their living outside that semi-circle thing. I would grant you that Davidson isn't shooting the three-ball like they have in the past, but LaSalle's defense is the cure. They do get to the line more than you'd think, and of course are a great FT shooting team, and one that doesn't turn the ball over - hence more useful possessions. LaSalle is putting up 80+ points at home with regularity (I like them to win this game, too). They're almost a smaller version of Davidson, that can't play defense. Since neither team rebounds well, we should also see a fair bit of quick baskets off of misses. Because this one COULD be close, FT's down the stretch, so, most all of the ingredients I look for in an "over".
Ian Cameron
Washington at St. Louis
Play: St. Louis +110
I like to bet against a team that just saw an extended winning streak come to an end and that is what I’m doing here with the Capitals as they saw their nine-game win streak end in a wild, back and forth, high scoring loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday night. It’s hard for teams to avoid an emotional and mental letdown in their following game. A perfect example is Columbus who lost 5-4 to the Rangers after their massive 16-game winning streak was snapped. St. Louis is coming off a 6-4 home loss to Ottawa on Tuesday night but that was a tough spot for the Blues as they were playing their fourth game in sixth nights; all of them with travel between games. St. Louis has had issues with their goaltending of late with Jake Allen struggling and Carter Hutton hammered for five goals in that loss to the Senators. I’d expect the Blues to give Allen another chance tonight and I think he will be very motivated to deliver a strong performance. Allen notched a shutout against Washington in his lone previous appearance against the Capitals. Look for St. Louis to play with much greater energy tonight and it’s worth noting the Blues are 5-1 in their last six games following a loss. The Blues worth a look as a short home underdog.
Brad Wilton
The Ducks are steamrolling right now, and I surely don't expect the Golden Bears to be close once the final buzzer sounds in Eugene on Thursday.
Oregon is currently on a 14-game winning streak and they have covered in each of their last 5 wins - covering as the -25, -15 and -10 1/2 point favorites in each of their last 3 conference games.
Cal has put together 3 straight conference wins and they have covered in both of their tries as the dog in Pac 12 action! The Golden Bears have also covered in 13 of their last 16 trips to Eugene.
That changes tonight, as Dana Altman's team is seeking revenge for an 83-63 pound-job the Bears administered in Berkeley last February to the outmanned Ducks.
The Ducks continue to roll. Double-digit payback win for Oregon tonight at home over California.
2* OREGON
Chris Jordan
Tonight I want you playing the Cleveland Cavaliers, minus the points against the visiting Phoenix Suns. I know the defending champs are in a mini-slump, and I know they may be without Kevin Love at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland tonight.
But that's not going to stop the Cavaliers from bouncing back and taking advantage of a great spot to score a huge win.
The Cavaliers return home after a brutal 35-point loss in Oakland, to the Warriors, concluding a 4-2 trip to the wild, wild west. Part of that trip included a stopover in Phoenix, where the Cavaliers blew a 22-point lead to the Suns before holding on for a four-point win.
The Cavs haven't forgotten about the near letdown, against the worst team in the Western Conference, and will take this team a little more serious in this return engagement against a dinged-up Suns team that has failed to cover five of their last seven road games.
Kyle Korver started the second half in place of Love on Monday, so don't be surprised if he makes his first start since joining the Cavaliers, if Love is unable to play. Coach Tyronn Lue has installed motion sets to benefit Korver - ones similar to a few of the sets he ran with the Hawks - and this might be the best game to implement them.
Cleveland, which is in on a 9-5 ATS run at home, will set the tone early by opening up a big lead, and should coast to the easy win and cover.
1* CAVALIERS
Eric Schroeder
Quick briefing on my free play, as I like the Miami Heat to get it done against the Dallas Mavericks.
Both teams are in after big wins - the Mavs over the Bulls and Miami over Houston - I'm thinking this one being in South Beach will pep up the Heat for this game.
Yes, Dallas is in on a three-game win streak, but Miami is in after arguably the biggest win of its campaign. And since the Mavs are last in the league in two categories - rebounding, and three-point defense - I think that will work in favor of the the cranky Heat.
Take the home team here.
1* HEAT
Bruce Marshall
Austin Peay +3
Expect an ultra-focused effort tonight from The Peay as beloved HC Dave Loos returns to the sidelines after undergoing cancer treatments. The Guvs have their offense in gear and are off of road wins at SIU-0E and Eastern Illinois, and have covered five of six. Junior G Josh Robinson has really erupted with 62 combined points over the past two games. Morehead has yet to win in eight games away from home in a distracting season due in part to HC Sean Woods' suspension.