Free Picks for Wednesday, Thursday, January 26th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
CS FULLERTON AT LONG BEACH STATE
PLAY: LONG BEACH STATE -7
Okay, one more shot with Beach. This team has seriously underachieved in conference play. But they’re off their best win of the season, a huge comeback win at Cal Poly. The Mustangs stink, so it’s possible I’m putting too much into it, but coming back from 15 down with less than 10 to play and winning in OT might be the corner turner for the 49ers.
Long Beach also now knows they will be without Gabe Levin for the rest of the season. He’s going to have surgery and he’s finished for the season. Levin is definitely a loss, but there’s still enough talent on this team to do well, at least in the throughly mediocre Big West.
I’ve written more than once that I felt the 49ers problems to date stemmed from an overly ambitious pre-conference schedule that might have actually created a losing mentality. Not that they’ve set the world on fire in winning the last two games, but perhaps Long Beach finally has some positive momentum.
Fullerton has a couple of guys who can play, but the Titans remain a fundamentally unsound team that just doesn’t value the ball. Call me stubborn but I still think Long Beach is capable of going on a Big West run and I’m going to spot the points tonight.
Jim Feist
Suns vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 229
Phoenix likes to run but plays no defense, #29 in the NBA in points allowed. The Over is 25-7 in the Suns last 32 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. They are also 20-6 over the total against the Western Conference. Denver is fourth in the NBA in scoring, a young uptempo attack. The Nuggets are on a 34-16-1 run over the total, 36-15-2 over in home games.
John Martin
Denver Nuggets -6
The Denver Nuggets have gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They beat Indiana by 28 on a neutral, Orlando by 13 at home, the Clippers by 25 at home and the Jazz by 10 at home during this stretch. I expect them to make easy work of the Phoenix Suns tonight as well. The Nuggets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Suns. They have won all four games by 6 points or more, including double-digit wins by 16 and 18 points in their two meetings in Denver. Look for the Nuggets to pull off their 5th straight win and cover in this series tonight.
Red Dog Sports
NC-Wilmington vs. James Madison
Play: James Madison +10
UNCW has played well this year but must make the long journey to Harrisonburg, Virginia by bus. JMU's top 9 players are made up of 6 seniors and 3 juniors and have improved lately under their new coach. I think we see UNCW win by 6 to 8 points.
Black Widow
Pacers vs. Wolves
Play: Over 211½
These teams certainly don't prioritize defense. The Pacers give up 107 PPG overall and 111 PPG on the road this season. The Timberwolves give up 105 PPG overall and 108 PPG in their last 5. The Pacers have allowed at least 100 points in 11 of their last 12 games overall, but they have scored at least 100 points in 14 of their last 17 contests. The Timberwolves are averaging 110 PPG and giving up 111 PPG in their last 4 games. The OVER is 13-4-1 in the last 18 meetings between these teams.
Dave Price
Nebraska vs. Northwestern
Play: Nebraska +8½
The Key: I like this spot for Nebraska. After opening 3-0 in Big Ten play with two huge upset road wins over Indiana and Maryland, the Huskers have lost 4 straight. But they could have won all 4 as the losses came by 8, 6, 1 and 1 points. That 8-point loss came to Northwestern at home in what was a bad spot for them as they were just a few days removed from a double-OT win over Iowa. Now the Huskers will be playing with revenge in mind here tonight. The Wildcats have won 4 in a row and are overvalued now as a result. The Cornhuskers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
Jack Jones
Pacers vs. Wolves
Play: Wolves -3
The Minnesota Timberwolves were clearly an underrated commodity heading into the second half of the season. They had started 0-7 in one-possession games, but they have turned that misfortune around here of late and are finally starting to win these close games.
Indeed, the Timberwolves have won three straight one-possession games to improve to 3-7 in them this season. They have gone 6-2 straight up in their last eight games overall and 6-3 ATS in their last nine contests. They are playing their best basketball of the season, and they come into this game with Indiana with a ton of confidence after Andrew Wiggins' game-winner in Phoenix on Tuesday.
The Pacers just aren't playing well at all right now, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games. They lost by 12 on the road to the Lakers, by 9 in Utah and by 6 at home to the Knicks. But for whatever reason they are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here as only 3-point dogs.
Indiana is just 6-16 SU & 6-16 ATS in road games this season. The Pacers are giving up 111.2 points per game on the road this year. Indiana is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 76% of their free throws or better this season. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
Jesse Schule
Manhattan vs. Niagara
Pick: Niagara -3
The Manhattan Jaspers are dead last in the MAAC, and they come into Niagara as losers of three straight. They beat Niagara at home earlier this season, but I don't like their chances here on the road tonight. The Purple Eagles are coming off a fantastic 91-84 home win over Canisius. They shot 53.2 percent from the field, 40 percent from beyond the arc, and there were a perfect 17-for-17 from the free throw line. The Jaspers don't have the shooters to compete with numbers like that. Manhattan is averaging just 72 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting on the road. They have really struggled from the charity stripe in those games, hitting just 66.2 percent. Niagara is hitting 79.5 percent of their free throws at home, and that kind of disparity could be the deciding factor in this game.
Larry Ness
Phoenix vs. Denver
Pick: Denver -6
The 19-25 Nuggets currently own the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference. The unsung Nikola Jokic, Denver's 6-10 center, has recorded a double-double in eight of 10 games this month and is averaging 25.1 points on 61.2 percent shooting and 11 rebounds in the last seven contests. The 21-year-old Jokic (15.2-8.3) is getting the job done on the defensive end as well, with three blocks and two steals to go along with 23 points, 11 rebounds and six assists in Tuesday's 103-93 home win over the Jazz. Jokic, along with guards Emmanuel Mudiay (12.1-4.2 APG) and Jamal Murray (8.0) have been named to the Rising Stars Challenge during All Star weekend.
The Suns know more than a little bit about that as well, as second-year guard Devin Booker and rookie forward Marquese Chriss will be playing in that Challenge, as well. Phoenix is riding a two-game road winning streak into this contest but stumbled at home against Minnesota on Tuesday, losing 112-111. Booker scored 26 points on Tuesday to mark his 10th straight game with 20 or more points. The Kentucky product is shooting 53.6 percent from three-point range in that span, while averaging 27.3 points. He's up to 20.6 PPG on the season and along with PG Bledose (20.8-5.0-6.2), gives the Suns an outstanding backcourt duo. Center Tyson Chandler continued his excellent play in Tuesday's one-point loss too, scoring 22 points on 9-of-9 shooting and hauled in 17 rebounds, the eighth time in his last nine games that he grabbed at least 15 boards (he's averaging 12.3 RPG on the season and 16.1 per in his last nine games!).
However, despite the Suns' mini two-game road winning streak, they are just 7-17 SU on the road this year, allowing 112.9 PPG. The Nuggets were the designated home team in their 140-112 win over the Pacers in London back on Jan 12, then returned Denver to score 125 points in beating the Magic. They had 123 points in beating the Clippers at home on Jan 21st and then Tuesday, had 103 in a 10-point win over the Jazz at Pepsi Center, the NBA's stingiest defensive team. I'm laying the points with Denver.
Robert Ferringo
Marshall (-14.5) over UT-San Antonio
I know that this looks like way, way too many points to lay out. But this game should be a bloodbath. San Antonio isn't nearly as good as their 9-10 record suggests and this team has played the easiest schedule in CUSA to this point. They have a bizarre road win at Louisiana Tech on Jan. 7. Other than that this team has gotten absolutely slaughtered away from home. They lost by 20 at UTEP. They lost by 18 at Southern Miss. They lost by 12 at Cal Poly and by 20 at Lamar. Those are terrible, terrible teams, and they smoked this Roadrunners squad. Marshall goes bonkers in its home gym. They have scored 98, 111, 90, 110 and 94 points in their last five home games against D-I competition. That's an average of 100.6 points per game, and there is no way in hell that UTSA, which is No. 343 in the country in shooting and No. 351 in 3-point shooting, can keep up. I really think that if Marshall gets hot they could win this one by 35 or more.
Vernon Croy
Utah (-13) over L.A. Lakers
The Jazz have allowed just 95.3 points per game this season, which ranks 1st in the NBA, and they are also the 4th best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Opponents have shot just 43.3% as a team against the Jazz this season, which ranks 2nd in the NBA, and I expect them to play extremely strong defensively at home Thursday night. The Lakers have dropped two straight games to the Jazz at home, and it doesn't get any easier playing them on the road. The Lakers are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA with opponents averaging 110.5 ppg against them this season, while also shooting 48% as a team against them. Play Utah ATS with confidence in what should be a blowout Thursday night.
Jimmy Boyd
Lakers +13
I like the value here with the Lakers as a massive road dog here against the Jazz. I believe the books have inflated this line, knowing the public will be inclined to bet Utah in what they will see as a prime bounce back spot after back-to-back losses following a 6-game winning streak. Utah's recent struggles have come via a lack of rest and while they had yesterday off, this is still their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 7 days.
I know LA just played last night, but are the more rested team here and I expect a big effort from the Lakers in a nationally televised game on TNT. Los Angeles also looks to avoid getting swept by Utah this season. The Jazz have won each of the first 3 meetings. Though it's worth noting that all 3 have been close, Utah's biggest win was by just 7-points. It's also worth noting that the Jazz were only a 9-point home favorite earlier this season, so there's definitely some value here.
The Jazz are just 5-13 ATS this season when playing 3 games in 4 nights, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 following a SU loss, 1-11 ATS in their last 12 against the Western Conference and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a losing record.
Brandon Lee
Xavier vs. Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati -4
The Bearcats are worth a look here as a small home favorite against in-state rival Xavier. For the Cincinnati seniors, this game means a lot, as they have lost 3 straight to the Musketeers. While Xavier is once again a force in the Big East, this year's team is not as strong as previous versions and they come into this one having lost 3 of their last 4 and like most teams are a lot more vulnerable on the road. As for the Bearcats, this is arguably the best team Cincinnati has had under head coach Mick Cronin. That's saying something, as Cronin has been here for 11 years and the Bearcats are one of just 8 programs who have made each of the last six NCAA Tournaments. Cincinnati is 11-0 at home and have won 19 straight at home dating back to last season. Note that Xavier averages 71.6 ppg on the road and give up 75.0 ppg. Cincinnati scores 86.5 ppg at home and allows only 63.3 ppg.
Ray Monohan
Xavier vs. Cincinnati
Play: Xavier +5½
Xavier and Cincinnati clash Thursday night and the Musketeers here have some value. Xavier is a much quicker team than this Bearcats one. The Musketeers attack the rim and aren't afraid to hoist. The key here will be getting Cincinnati into a track meet like game.
The Bearcats like to slow things down and will try to use the shot clock. If Xavier can get out in transition and force the Bearcats to adapt, things could get ugly for Cinci.
Some trends to note. Musketeers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Bearcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Musketeers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
This is just too many points. Xavier has the edge here when it comes to speed and with their guard play so talented, the Bearcats are really going to struggle to keep up with the passing and the Musketeers ability to get out and create counter attacks.