Matt Fargo
Northeastern -5½
Northeastern was pretty average during the non-conference portion of its schedule where it went 7-5 but that included a pair of solid wins over Connecticut and Michigan St. on the road. Of those 12 games, only two took place at home so in reality, the start to the season was arguably better than the record shows. The Huskies then opened CAA action with a perfect 5-0 record, four of those wins coming at home. The run did not last long however as Northeastern has lost its last three games but those games all took place on the highway where they are now 5-7 on the season. A return home where they are 6-0 is what the Huskies need to get some momentum back. Elon started its conference season with three straight losses before running off four wins over its last five games and the common theme continues that venue matters as the home team is 7-0 in its last seven games. We are laying a value line here based on the fact of the recent runs for both but also because of the fact the Phoenix have covered six straight games. That may be a tough run for some to go against but the Huskies are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning straight up record and they get back to their winning ways tonight.
Jack Jones
Timberwolves -3
The Minnesota Timberwolves were clearly an underrated commodity heading into the second half of the season. They had started 0-7 in one-possession games, but they have turned that misfortune around here of late and are finally starting to win these close games.
Indeed, the Timberwolves have won three straight one-possession games to improve to 3-7 in them this season. They have gone 6-2 straight up in their last eight games overall and 6-3 ATS in their last nine contests. They are playing their best basketball of the season, and they come into this game with Indiana with a ton of confidence after Andrew Wiggins' game-winner in Phoenix on Tuesday.
The Pacers just aren't playing well at all right now, going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games. They lost by 12 on the road to the Lakers, by 9 in Utah and by 6 at home to the Knicks. But for whatever reason they are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here as only 3-point dogs.
Indiana is just 6-16 SU & 6-16 ATS in road games this season. The Pacers are giving up 111.2 points per game on the road this year. Indiana is 1-10 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 76% of their free throws or better this season. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.
Will Rogers
Tampa Bay at Florida
Play: Over 5
The 22-22-5 Tampa Bay Lightning attempt to win back-to-back games for only the second time since Thanksgiving when they visit their Sunshine State rivals, the 20-19-10 Florida Panthers on Thursday night. Both teams get set to play their 50th game of the season with the Panthers one point ahead of the Lightning in the standings (50-49).
Tampa Bay: The Lightning had gone 2-7-1 in 10 games prior to Tuesday but they scored four goals in the third period on to knock off the Chicago Blackhawks 5-2. Andrei Vasilevskiy came up big with 34 saves on Tuesday and he has turned aside 90 of the 96 shots he's faced over his last four appearances. “Sometimes you need your goaltender to be your best player,” Tampa Bay head coach Cooper told reporters. “And he was (Tuesday).”
Florida: The Panthers are 9-9-9 since Tom Rowe took over for Gerard Gallant as coach. Florida went winless on a four-game road trip (0-2-2) where it managed eight goals total, and comes home where it is 11-9-3, including a 3-1 victory over Tampa Bay on Nov. 7. "The guys are frustrated ... everyone's frustrated," Rowe told The Miami Herald. "We're not winning enough games. "We're not scoring a lot 5-on-5. Some guys have to give us more. We have to get more from our top-end guys." The Panthers aren't winning enough, losing all four games on their recent trip out west, twice losing in OT, as they captured just two out of a possible eight points!
The pick: Tampa Bay, which made it to the 2015 Stanley Cup Finals but lost to Chicago, is hoping that Tuesday's four-goal third period can ignite the team. The Panthers are hoping a return hohe will similarly give the team a spark Five Eastern Conference teams are in great position to make the postseason: the Washington Capitals, Columbus Blue Jackets, Pittsburgh Penguins, Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers. The Ottawa Senators are in good shape to be the sixth team, leaving 10 clubs battling for two spots. The Maple Leafs lead the Panthers and Lightning in the points race (55) and also have three games in hand. The Lightning and Panthers have their work cut out for them. Both are not likely to get in. The Panthers and Lightning have a lot of work to do to dig out of the hole they have created for themselves. Tonight, I'll play the Over.
Wunderdog
Texas San Antonio @ Marshall
Pick: Texas San Antonio +13.5
Texas San Antonio had won six of seven games before going stone cold, shooting just 24.1 percent in a loss at UTEP on Saturday. The Roadrunners made only 2-of-22 three-point attempts and no player scored in double figures. The defense has carried the Roadrunners this season as they allow only a .415 shooting percentage, and Jeff Beverly averages a team-leading 15.4 points per game. UTSA has won and covered two of the last three meetings with Marshall, which snapped a two-game losing streak with a 94-80 win over Western Kentucky on Saturday. Jon Elmore scored 27 points for the Thundering Herd and Stevie Browning added 23 points. UTSA has covered six of its last eight games when getting at least 13 points and Marshall is 5-15-1 ATS when laying 13 points or more.
David Banks
Oregon vs. Utah
Pick: Utah -2.5
No. 11 Oregon travels to Utah where it will put its school-record 16-game winning streak on the line. The Ducks beat Stanford, 69-52, on Saturday without leading scorer Dillon Brooks. The 6-7 junior who averages 13.4 points per game has a sprained left foot and his return is still uncertain. In his absence, 6-10 Chris Boucher proved why he is one of the most dynamic players in the country with 16 points and 10 rebounds in the win over the Cardinal.
The Ducks are one of the nation’s better defensive units (16th) and haven’t given up over 66 points since beating then second-ranked UCLA 89-87 back on Dec. 29. Five Oregon players average in double figures. Boucher is the team’s second-leading scorer (13.2 ppg) and averages 2.9 blocks per game. Tyler Dorsey (12.8 ), Dylan Ennis (11.6), and Jordan Bell, the team’s leading rebounder (7.7 rpg) averages 11 points a game.
Oregon will have to be careful against a 15-4 Utah team whose four losses are all to ranked teams. The Utes have lost twice in Pac-12 play, one to Arizona by ten, and the other was a one-point loss to No. 2 UCLA. Utah is led by 6-9 junior Kyle Kuzma who averages 15.3 points per game. Utah is big up front with Kuzma, 6-8 David Collette (14.9 ppg), and 6-10 Tyler Rawson who comes off the bench to add 7.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game. It will be an interesting matchup of Utah’s size against the athleticism of the Ducks.
Dave Cokin
Idaho at Montana State
Play: Montana State -3
I can see baskets being tough to come by for both teams here. Idaho plays a tough zone and Montana State is going to have knock down some outside shots tonight. But the Vandals have had trouble scoring the ball all season. Idaho has won three straight, but those three came against the bottom of the Big Sky barrel. Montana State's current 3-0 is more impressive, particularly the win at Portland State. First meeting was a barnburner with Idaho getting a late three to force OT and pulling the game out by a deuce. Likely another close one here, but I think Montana State wins it, so I'll spot the three.
Mike Rose
Indiana at Michigan
Play: Indiana +3.5
Wolverines big man D.J. Wilson has been way too inconsistent. One game he goes out and drops 19 point and pulls down 7 rebounds in 39 minutes of play. Then he goes out and registers not a single point and only 5 rebounds. If Michigan is to avenge the ugly 80-67 beating it absorbed when it hosted this rivalry last season, Wilson is going to have to make an impact, but more important, put forth an effort along the lines of his seasonal averages. If he disappears, Michigan has no shot.
Even with Indiana possibly without two of its better rebounders, I find it hard to believe Michigan will be able to keep up with them on the glass. The Wolverines are going to need to shoot the lights out in this matchup, and if you’ve watched a number of their games, you know the odds are stacked against that occurring. The Hoosiers are the ones with the better playmakers that have already proven to be superior when running up against lesser opposition. The Wolverines were a decent investment at home last year, but I’m just not feeling them this season or in this matchup. Though Indiana hasn’t covered on the road to date, I expect them to end that streak this evening with a hard fought win in Ann Arbor.
Ian Cameron
Buffalo Sabres vs. Dallas Stars
Play: Buffalo Sabres +125
This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions as we approach the All-Star break with the surging Buffalo Sabres taking on the Dallas Stars. Buffalo has won three straight games; all of them in overtime and two of them in come-from-behind fashion. The Sabres have shown a healthy dose of resilience during this recent run and an ignited offense with 11 goals in their last three games. Jack Eichel talking about the success: "It's great to see the way we played. We stuck with it for 60 minutes. We got down two goals on the road against a really good hockey team and were able to find a way to get it to overtime and win it. It says a lot about the resiliency of this team. It's nice to be a part of games like that." On the flip side, the Stars are routinely finding ways to lose games as they limp into the All-Star Break 1-5 and 3-9 skids. Dallas blew a third period lead on Saturday night against Washington and followed it up with a 3-2 shootout loss to Minnesota on Tuesday. The problems remain the same for Dallas; weak defense and suspect goaltending whether it’s Kari Lehtonen or Antti Niemi in between the pipes. Their efforts haven’t been helped by the fact that they’ve allowed the first goal in each of their last six games. Buffalo took care of business against Dallas when these two squared off earlier this mon
ASA
Utah (-13) over L.A. Lakers
We normally don’t like laying double digit points in the NBA but we’ll make an exception here with the Jazz over the Lakers. L.A. is really struggling right now with just 1 win in their last eight games and four of those losses were blowout beats (by 49, 16, 40 and 21). The Lakers have the worst road point differential in the NBA at minus -13.1PPG which is nearly 4 points worse than next to last Brooklyn. Utah on the other hand has the 8th best home point differential in the NBA at +7.7PPG. Utah allows foes to hit just 42.4% of their field goal attempts on their home floor (2nd best in NBA) while the Lakers shoot 43.1% on the road which is 2nd to last in the league. The Jazz hold teams to 93.4PPG at home and we don’t see L.A. topping 90 here. On the other side, the Lakers allow 113PPG on the road and can easily see the Jazz getting to that number. It all adds up to a BLOWOUT!
Brad Wilton
Wednesday night comp play is the Suns and Nuggets to get the offense cranking, and the Over to come through in the Mile High City.
Phoenix just played Over the total on Tuesday night against Minnesota, and the Suns have now landed Over the posted price in 6 of their last 8 games played.
Denver has held Under in their last 3 games, but backtrack things a bit further, and you will see the Nuggets had played Overs in their previous 9 games!
This is the third meeting between the teams this season, with both previous meetings in the month of November landing Over the posted price.
4 of the last 6 meetings between the clubs in Denver have landed Over the posted price, and this one does too!
Suns-Nuggets light up the scoreboard.
2* PHOENIX-DENVER OVER
STEVE JANUS
Oregon St vs. Colorado
Play: Under 132
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (OREGON ST) - after scoring 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more. This system is 38-9 (81%) against the total over the last 5 seasons.
MIKE ANTHONY
Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks +2.5
Though this selection might seem a bit scary at first, take a closer look and you will see the Sixers have all the underpinnings for a great effort on Friday night. This is a team that lost to Houston earlier this year 88-115 at home in a 27-point loss. The 76ers have been RED HOT and just beat Milwaukee on the road as an 11.5 pt underdog. One would have to think that this Sixers team wants to show that they are not the same team that lost to the Rockets earlier this year on November 14th. This is a Sixers team that believes in the process, who has quietly covered a slew of games, 8-2 straight up over their last 10 and who has beaten solid teams such as the Raptors by 5, Milwaukee on the road, Charlotte, New York and Minnesota. This is a Sixers team that faces a Houston squad with revenge, with Houston having Indiana on deck in their next game and at home on a Friday night where the crowd will be electric in Philadelphia. Let's roll with the Sixers as a fantastic home dog right here.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. ISLANDERS +110 over Montreal
OT included. The Canadiens are coming off a 5-1 victory over the Flames and they’re in first place in the East but so what? Everyone is beating up on Calgary these days and Montreal is in first because of their great start to the season. We’re more interested in recent form as opposed to results in early November. Over the past six weeks or so covering 27 games, the Habs are 13-14. Both they and Carey Price have been average over that stretch. Even when they beat Calgary on Tuesday, Montreal mustered a mere 20 shots on net while allowing Calgary 31. It’s not just one game either. The Canadiens have recorded 21 shots on net or fewer in four of their past seven games, including 20 on Pittsburgh and 18 on Detroit. In Montreal’s defense, they are without Alex Galchenyuk, David Desharnais and Brendan Gallagher but this market is largely ignoring that. It’s been almost three weeks since the Habs have won consecutive games and they simply aren’t playing well enough to be favored on the road here.
Meanwhile, the Islanders are playing great. Prior to the start of the season, the Islanders were believed to have a highly competitive roster but had been a profound disappointment up until they fired Jack Capuano recently. Over their past seven games, the Isles have picked up 11 out of a possible 14 points. They are a mere three points behind the Flyers for the final Wild card spot so they have absolutely gotten themselves back in the race. The Islanders have also scored four goals or more five times over those seven games and folks in Brooklyn are starting to get behind them too. Lastly, Tomas Greiss is quietly emerging as one of the best goaltenders in the business. It is rare for him to have a bad game or allow a soft goal. That’s huge, as Greiss gives the Islanders a chance to win every night but the market has not adjusted one bit to anything Greiss or the Islanders are doing right now. That provides us with this great value play. Wrong side favored.
Toronto +119 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. The Flyers are coming off back-to-back victories over the Islanders and Rangers but still only managed four goals in 120 minutes over the two games in regulation. Philly received some solid goaltending and but what sticks out more to us is the alarming number of scoring chances and shots on goal that the Flyers continue to allow. The Islanders fired away 38 shots on net while the Rangers fired away 34 on Philly. Philadelphia has allowed 38 shots on net or more in four of its last six games. At home, the Flyers rank 25th out of 30 teams in Corsi against. These two played once this year back in Toronto in mid-November and the Leafs won 6-3. At that time, the Leafs were not the same team they are today and neither are the Flyers. Toronto is better now while Philadelphia is worse.
It took less two years for Lou Lamoriello, Brendan Shanahan and Mike Babcock to turn the Leafs from a 50-year joke to a true Stanley Cup contender and it’s not just a “good run” that the Leafs are on. Toronto is a serious threat to win it all this year so when you read that they’re in year two of the rebuild, pay no attention. The rebuild is over. The Leafs have nine outstanding forwards on three different lines and their fourth line is very good too. Toronto’s goaltending is rock solid so it matters not whether their backup (McElhinney is scheduled here) is in net or not. The “experts” are trying to sell that the Maple Leafs need one more solid NHL defenseman but don’t believe that either, as Babcock has won plenty of playoff games with less. Nikita Soshnikov could be that guy anyway, as Babcock continues to mold him and he’s getting better with each passing game. You often hear great offensive defenseman referred to as a fourth forward out there but rarely hear the opposite. In that regard, Nazem Kadri has become like a third defensemen out there because his defensive game is so good. Oh, and BTW, Kadri is a great playmaker and point producer too that reminds one of Pavel Datsyuk (not comparing Kadri to Datsyuk because that’s ridiculous but Kadri plays a similar style and is very skilled both ways).
The Leafs barely broke a sweat in a 4-0 win over Detroit last night. They defeated Calgary 4-0 two nights earlier. The Leafs have been outstanding on the road and they have been outstanding this entire month. Toronto is now a dog because the market thinks they’re overachieving but that’s not even close to being true. The intangibles that make the Leafs a cohesive, strong and extremely dangerous unit cannot be overstated enough. You would be hard-pressed to find a professional team in any sport that is having as much fun as the Leafs are this year and it shines through on the ice almost every night. Toronto likely has another very good game in them just before the break and it’ll continue afterward too. Toronto a dog? Of course we’re stepping in.
Tampa Bay +103 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers return home from a four-game trip and in the final game of that trip, they were outshot by Arizona 42-25. Remember, that was after an 0-3 start to the trip so it’s not like they had any satisfaction or complacency going in. The last time the Panthers outshot an opponent was eight games ago when they outshot the Devils, 29-28. Shots on net aren’t everything but it’s a good indicator to who has the puck more. There’s also a thing called Corsi Adjusted Score because not all shots on net are created equal.
Corsi Score Adjustment is a correction made to Fenwick or Corsi to account for changes in possession that occur due to the current score of the game. When teams are ahead, they generally fall into a small defensive shell to protect their lead and end up shooting less, especially in the third period. Likewise, when teams are behind they tend to take more risks and shoot more to try to catch up. Without going into a lot of detail, the Panthers have one of the worst overall adjusted scores in the league. Only the Avalanche and Coyotes are worse. The Panthers are close to getting some key bodies back, which will occur after the break so this final game before it will likey be another exercise in futility.
Here is an excerpt from a publication that was previewing this game:
The Tampa Bay Lightning attempt to win back-to-back games for only the second time since Thanksgiving when they visit the Sunshine State rival Florida Panthers on Thursday night. The Lightning followed up one of their worst performances of the season Saturday in Arizona (a 5-3 loss) with one of their most inspiring triumphs Tuesday, when they rallied for four third-period goals to beat Chicago 5-2.
We point this out because that preview points out how results can be so misleading and how they influence the market. Yes indeed, the Bolts did lose to Arizona on Saturday but unbeknownst to the above publication or writer, the Bolts played one of their best games of the year. They lost that game because Ben Bishop allowed five goals on 17 shots before getting yanked. Tampa outshot Arizona 48-23. The Bolts out-chanced the Coyotes 36-9 and held one of the highest puck possession percentage advantages of the year. Andrei Vasilevskiy replaced Bishop in that game and didn’t allow a goal. Vasilevskiy was also in net for the Lightning’s 5-2 win over Chicago on Tuesday and Jon Cooper has elected to go with Vasilevskiy again here.
Tampa is in great form but does not have the results to back it. The Bolts have just two wins over their last six games but deserved so much better. The Lightning are on the verge of getting back into the playoff picture and they’re also on the verge of falling out of it. Six teams are tied with 49 points and one team has 50 points. Six of those seven teams play tonight, thus, this is a game they all want badly. That said, one has to trust the will and determination of the Bolts so much more than the Panthers here. Tampa is in better form and its hard work should continue to pay off in this one while the Panthers are relying on a 44-year old to score a hat-trick.
OTTAWA -1½ +232 over Calgary
Way back in 2003 as coach of the Anaheim Ducks, Mike Babcock posted a 15-6 record during the playoffs while leading the Mighty Ducks to the 2003 Stanley Cup Finals, where they lost in seven games to the New Jersey Devils. Following the 2004–05 NHL lockout, Babcock declined an offer to remain with the Ducks and openly stated, “There is no way that I’m working under Brian Burke” as the reason for declining. A few years later, Burke was hired by a clueless Maple Leafs management group and he would set the Leafs back about five years before getting canned. Burke is now the President of Hockey operations in Calgary, where his path of destruction continues. Under this current regime, Calgary will never accomplish anything and it’s going from bad to worse.
The Flames have surrendered the opening goal in nine straight games. In an important trip just before this weekend’s All-Star break, Calgary went 0-2 in Toronto and Montreal (a trip that all teams get jacked up for) while being outscored 9-1. That one goal came with one second left in the third period in Montreal. Prior to that, Calgary lost to Edmonton, its most bitter rival, 7-3 on Hockey Night in Canada.
This is the final slate of games before the All-Star break. The challenge is to figure out which teams will show up and play hard and which have already mentally checked out and will just be going through the motions. For the Calgary Flames, this break can’t come soon enough and it starts at the top. Burke takes no responsibility. He hired a coach that mirrors himself. Glen Gulutzan shifts blame too and is even throwing his players under the bus. “We were pathetic,” said Flames head coach Glen Gulutzan after the loss to Montreal. “It was a pathetic display. No bite-back. No kick-back”.
Actually, the pathetic display was initiated by the coach himself the night before in Toronto so let us set that up for you, an incident that took play about midway through the second period in Toronto.
Johnny Gaudreau had just played the puck and as he lifted his head up, Leo Komarov trucked Gaudreau and got him with what appeared to be a head shot. Gaudreau hit the ice in a heap and Komarov kept skating. Mark Giordano attempted to stand up for his player, but the fight he instigated dissipated quickly and that was it until Alex Chiasson attempted to take a run at Komarov in the 3rd, but barely got him and ended up in the box for two minutes for his troubles. Chiasson was trying to make a point, but what happened next is what’s really worrisome. Chiasson got a few shifts off thanks to Glen Gulutzan’s gutless coaching. Gulutzan sat Chiasson right in front of him as punishment for attempting to defend one of his teammates. Yes, Chiasson’s penalty led to a Toronto PP goal, but who cares at that point? The Flames weren’t winning that game, so why not let the boys get a little physical and let Toronto know that the kind of crap they pulled earlier isn’t acceptable? Not Glen Gulutzan’s Flames. He’d rather his star player get smashed, barely question the call and ride out the storm. Gutless and we assure you that it didn’t go unnoticed by the rest of the players. The coach threw Chiasson (and Gaudreau) under the bus and when the coach isn’t sticking up for the players, the players aren’t going to break their neck for the coach.
The Flames played the rest of the game against Toronto with zero sense of urgency and did the same thing the very next night in Montreal. They tucked their tails between their legs and let the Maple Leafs and Habs toy with them and taunt them. Seriously, with vacation starting tomorrow, how can we expect anything different from the Flames here against a team that is on fire, that can’t wait to get back on the ice and that very likely has one more win in them before the break? Add in a big goaltending and psychological edge and we’d be shocked if the Flames didn’t lose by four or more again.
SPORTS WAGERS
RADFORD -3½ over Campbell
In short, neither the Fighting Camels of Campbell nor the Highlanders of Radford have emerged in betting markets yet this season. Though they have both played 20 games, each squad is 0-0 ATS. Both these outfits are .500 teams more or less and play in a very low-card market, the Big South. Currently, Winthrop is penciled in as the favorite to win this league. Winthrop by far is the most recognizable team in this conference because they have been seen in the Men’s Basketball Tournament on several occasions over recent years. These two foes are a scarcely known entity outside of their indigenous support bases.
Radford typifies what we look for in value in favorites. Mirroring our approach in the Wofford/UNCG game yesterday, we have an opportunity to spot deflated points based on the large difference in the bodies of work between both teams’. Sure, Campbell may have the better record at 10-10 but it has transpired against a far less competitive ensemble of opposition. In non-conference strength of schedule (SOS), Radford has played the 9th toughest schedule in America. That is far contrasting to the 306th ranked non-conference SOS of the Fighting Camels. Radcliffe has traveled into hostile environs this season when they went to take on North Carolina, Wake Forest, West Virginia, UNC-Wilmington and Akron. Some of the names on this list speak for themselves while others are currently in the discussion for the Big Dance in March. The Highlanders also own a win at the current conference top-dog Winthrop. By contrast, padding the schedule has finally begun to catch up with the Fighting Camels, as they have now lost three games in a row.
Now Radcliffe gets Campbell on a skid at home in cozier confines where they are 5-3 this season. Conversely, Campbell is 3-5 on the road. The Highlanders have won their last four against the Fighting Camels therefore they’ll approach this game with heightened confidence and an emotional edge. In three of those four wins, Radcliffe defeated Campbell by at least 10 points. In the last two home meetings between the two, the average margin of victory was 14 but this time we only have to spot less than a third of that because of misleading and equal records. Again, this is the first time this year that a market has materialized between these two Big South combatants, which works to our advantage, as we are now getting a bargain and we have to like our chances big time.
Bruce Marshall
Eastern Washington/Montana Under 148
Eastern Washington's scoring numbers go down considerably on the road, where the Eagles have been held to fewer than 70 points in five of their last six games. Which is one reason that Jim Hayford's crew has gone "under" in 9 of its last 10 games since mid-December. The ability to protect the ball and an assist-TO ratio on the right side have been able to control the pace in recent EWU games.