Free Picks for Wednesday, Thursday, January 5th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
FURMAN AT SAMFORD
PLAY: SAMFORD -3
Samford gets no recognition nationally as they’re in a non-marquee conference, but this is one of the most improved teams in college basketball. Actually, Furman is also exceeding expectations, so this has a chance to be a pretty good game.
But matching the two teams up category by category, it’s the Bulldogs earning most of the check marks. There’s also the home chalk double revenge angle, which is working extremely well so far in conference play.
I don’t see the Paladins getting blown out here, but I do expect Samford to win and the points are reasonable, so I’m on the home side here.
Jim Feist
Phoenix at Dallas
Play: Over 204½
Dallas is getting healthier and has its offense clicking, scoring over 100 points in 4 of the last 5. That included a 113-105 win over Washington the last game, sailing over. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Mavericks last 9 home games. Phoenix loves to run, #10 in the NBA in scoring, but defenseless, surrendering 112 ppg (second most in the NBA). Phoenix is on a 16-6 run over the total on the road and the 20-8 in the Suns last 28 vs. the Western Conference.
Scott Spreitzer
Loyola Marymount vs. Pepperdine
Play: Loyola Marymount -2½
The Lions are on the road in Malibu taking on a Pepperdine team that finally returns home for the first time since November 27. The Waves have dropped nine in a row SU (1-8 ATS), and defense, or lack thereof, has been the biggest culprit. Pepperdine has allowed an average of 84.3 ppg during the losing streak and have allowed teams to nail 47.6% of their FGA (325th) & a ridiculous 43.1% of their 3-pointers (350th) on the season. The Waves don't rebound well and can't shoot from the stripe, while barely touching 70 ppg. We doubt being reacquainted with home-cooking will get them back on track tonight. Finally, Pepperdine is on a 1-10 ATS slide against teams with a winning record. Loyola-Marymount isn't going to challenge in the WCC, but they're in better shape than Pepperdine.
Mike Lundin
Minnesota at San Jose
Play: San Jose -135
The Minnesota Wild had recorded 12 consecutive victories before running into the even hotter Columbus Blue Jackets on New Year's Eve. This will be the Wild's first game since the defeat, and we can note that they're 2-11 in their last 13 games when playing on three or more days rest and they've struggled with the Sharks in recent season's, particularly at SAP Center where they've won just three of the last 18 encounters. San Jose is coming off back-to-back losses to Los Angeles, so the Sharks will be desperate to get back in the win column.
Goaltending advantage San Jose as Devan Dubnyk is 5-8-2 with a 3.07 GAA against the Sharks while Martin Jones is 2-1-0 with a fantastic 1.38 career GAA against the Wild. Great price on the Sharks to take a big bite of the Wild at home.
Ray Monohan
Thunder vs. Rockets
Play: Thunder +8½
It's going to be Russell Westbrook vs. James Harden on Thursday night and the Thunder plus the points is the play here.
Oklahoma City receives all their offensive sparks from Westbrook and he comes in off a solid showing. Westbrook finished with 33 points, 15 rebounds, and 8 assists in a loss to Charlotte. Look for him to really pick apart this Houston defense here as he'll have plenty of motivation and momentum heading into this one.
This is matchup where the Thunder matchup well defensively with Houston. Expect the Thunder to really suffocate shooters in this one and not allow the Rockets to get many good looks from behind the arc.
Some trends to note. Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Thunder are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Expect this one to stay close throughout, as Westbrook and Harden put on a show.
Jesse Schule
Oklahoma City vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
Former teammates James Harden and Russell Westbrook have emerged as the top two candidates for the 2017 NBA MVP Award. Westbrook is the favorite, as he's rewriting the record books with 16 triple-doubles so far. Harden though has triple-doubles in each of his last three games, including a record breaking 53 points, 16 rebounds and 17 assists at MSG in a 129-122 win over the Knicks on Saturday. It's performances like that (at the Mecca of basketball) that the media will remember when it comes time to cast votes for MVP. The Thunder are currently sitting in the 6th spot in the West, but their schedule gets a little tougher. They will play 10 of their next 13 games on the road, and they have a losing road record overall. They come into Houston as losers of three straight road games, and playing on back-to-back nights against a Rockets team riding a five game winning streak isn't an easy task. The Thunder are 0-8 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series, and they are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games (vs teams above .500).
Robert Ferringo
St. Mary's (-10) over BYU
It's going to be real easy to want to take the underdog in this game. After all, this is a boatload of points to lay to a Cougars team that is just a tick below Gonzaga and St. Mary's when it comes to supremacy in the WCC. BYU is 11-4 SU this year and dominating big man Eric Mika has completely changed the outlook of this team. But St. Mary's has an extra gear. And I think that it will kick in for this game. The Gaels play one of the slowest tempos in the country while BYU plays one of the fastest. But the home team will be able to slow it down and frustrate what is really an inexperienced Cougars team. The home team has won five of six in this series and only one of those five games was decided by fewer than 10 points. That includes a swap of 11-point wins between these two last year. I just think that St. Mary's is going to be very focused for this game and I'm still not sure about BYU playing on the road. I think the public will take one on the chin here as St. Mary's buries BYU by 15.
Alex Smart
Hornets vs. Pistons
Play: Hornets +4.5
Detroit's defensive issues have been the main reason why the team has struggled this season with consistency. Motowns HC Van Gundy has been frustrated by his ability to get his team to stop opponents, even after implementing some lineup changes. CHARLOTTE is 9-1 ATS L/10 versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game. I also know that Charlotte's defense, is nothing special either, but Detroit has not shown an ability to take advantage of porous stop units, covering just 5 of 18 games against sides that allow 103 or more points per game. Detroit has lost 11 of their L/15 games overall, and once again look like weak favorites vs a Hornets side, that took out a tough Oklahoma City team last night by DDs. Play on the Charlotte Hornets to cover
Wunderdog
San Antonio @ Denver
Pick: San Antonio -7
While the Tim Duncan era may have come to an end in San Antonio, the winning has not as the Spurs are 28-7 on the season. The Spurs aren't just winning at home, they carry a 16-3 road mark heading into Denver. The Nuggets have not been able to get anything going at 14-21. They are not in a good spot here vs. a San Antonio team that is 7-0 on the road vs .500 or less teams, outscoring them in blowout fashion by 11.4 points per game. The Spurs have not been effected by the Denver altitude, and have owned the Nuggets when playing in Denver where they are a resounding and eye-opening 30-14 SU, and 31-12-1 ATS in their last 44 trips. They are also a perfect 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS here in their last 10 as road chalk.
Brett Atkins
Willing to lay a few points on the Big Ten road on Thursday as Purdue plays at Ohio State. Both teams coming off conference losses, Purdue losing in overtime at home to Minnesota, while Ohio State dropped a decision in Champaign to Illinois.
Obviously, the home loss by the double-digit favored Boilermakers is a little more puzzling to me, but I expect Matt Painter's team to bounce-back here on the road versus a Buckeyes team that is just 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games, and only 3-5 in their lined home games this season.
Even with the setback to the Golden Gophers, Purdue stands at 7-1-1 against the spread their last 9 Big Ten battles, and they have covered 4 of 5 this season on the road.
The Boilermakers also own series wins in 2 of the last 3 games, and have covered in 3 of the last 4 in this rivalry.
Go ahead and lay a couple with Purdue.
2* PURDUE
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 26-14 run with free picks, as my complimentary winner after hitting the Southern Illinois Salukis minus the number against the Indiana State Sycamores. Tonight I'm looking to improve with Southern Miss over Texas-San Antonio.
Real quick with this freebie, as I see the Roadrunners come in with an 0-8 mark on the road, and that's perfect for a Southern Miss team that is 3-10 this season. Trust me, the Golden Eagles have the ability to win this game outright.
Southern Miss is in the midst of a three-home game stretch to begin its Conference USA campaign, after its last two games came on both Christmas and New Year’s Day. This is a game the Golden Eagles need to have.
Southern Miss and the Roadrunners have only met five times, all in the last three years, and the home team has won each time.
Southern Miss' defense allows just 70.8 points per game at home, while UTSA allows 74.9 while on the highway. Great spot for Southern Miss to snap a nine-game losing streak. Take the home pup.
1* SOUTHERN MISS
Eric Schroeder
In what should be a fantastic Big 10 clash in Evanston, Illinois, I'm siding with the Northwestern Wildcats tonight, laying the cheap number to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Both are 1-1 in conference play, and both have impressive overall marks - Minnesota at 13-2 and Northwestern 12-3 - yet with this one, I'm looking at two intangibles: locale and defense.
With this one being at home, Northwestern has the decided advantage, then you add in how this team limits opponents on the scoreboard. The Wildcats give up an average of 64.3 points per game, they yield 62.7 at home and in their last five they've given up an average of 66 points per game.
On the flipside of that, Minnesota is giving up 78.5 points on the road, and that won't bode well against a team that scored 80.1 at home.
Take the home team here, as the 'Cats get it done by 9.
4* NORTHWESTERN
Bob Valentino
It's an intriguing matchup in Tempe, but my money is on the road team. Colorado (10-4, 0-1 Pac 12) has a knack for slowing things down in games, and that will take away from Arizona State's gameplan.
The Sun Devils, who are mired in a 2-6 ATS slide at home, have allowed 82.4 points per game this season, including a whopping 80.9 points per home contest. Colorado, which has won the last two meetings, will be hungry to avenge a 76-60 loss at Utah on New Year's Day.
The Buffs have won three of four and five of seven. Look for them to keep their momentum going and score the easy win and cover tonight.
2* COLORADO
TONY GEORGE
Iowa vs. Nebraska
Play: Nebraska -2
Well I do not think this will be a repeat of the Nebraska / Iowa Football Game last month where Iowa buried the Huskers by 30 points. My beloved Huskers are on a roll. A shocking home loss to Gardner Webb was followed up by 2 monster road wins at Indiana and Maryland for NU to open up the Big 10 season 2-0 and Tai Webster has been playing lights out for them and was offensive player of the week in the Big 10 last week, and has scored double digits in 15 straight games dating back to last year!
Iowa is allowing, hang on, 90 ppg on the road this year while scoring 72! That is an unreal number and the tale of the tape coming in here tonight, and they face a team on a roll on a very tough home floor at Pinnacle Arena in Lincoln tonight, which is worth 3 points alone. The Huskers defense is much better than Iowa's, they are a battle tested team who has faced a few top 25 teams including Kansas, and I like their momentum and confidence after a shaky start right now.