KEN LOWDEN
Austin Peay vs. Tennessee Tech
Play: Over 158
Austin Peay either does not know how to play defense, or they don't care to try as they are giving up an average of 89.5 points per game to their opponent which is 349th in the nation and the reason that their record is (4-11). Tennessee Tech may not score 89 points but they do not have to in order to win this selection. I expect them to score somewhere around 85 points, which will be more than enough to reach the over.
MATT FARGO
James Madison vs. Hofstra
Play: Hofstra -7½
Hofstra is coming off a tough loss at home against William & Mary on Monday which snapped a three-game winning streak and dropped the Pride to 1-1 in the early going in the CAA. It was just the second home loss of the season for Hofstra which is one of four teams that is expected to challenge UNC-Wilmington in the conference. The overtime loss against the Tribe was even worst after blowing a late lead by watching a 35-foot shot drop as time expired so they will be out for some retribution. On top of that, Hofstra will be out to avenge a pair of overtime losses to James Madison last season, two of only four regular season conference losses all year. The Dukes are 2-0 in the conference following a pair of wins at home which capped off a five-game homestand. They are just 1-6 on the road with the lone win coming at Longwood and the current three-game winning streak comes on the heels of a 1-11 start which shows the recent winning streak could be an illusion. The Pride are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss while the Dukes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
ART ARONSON
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals
Play: Under 5½
There are a lot of story lines going on here. Columbus enters on a 16 game win streak and has a chance to match the league record with another victory. The Capitals play with revenge today after falling in Columbus earlier in the year. The Blue Jackets have the second best offense and second best defense.
Washington is middle of the pack on the offensive end, but ranked No. 3 on the defensive end. Note that the Jackets have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of nine this year after a win by two goals or more (just beat Oilers 3-1 at home), while the Capitals have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of five this year after allowing four goals or more (just beat Leafs 6-5 at home in OT last time out).
BRANDON LEE
Davidson vs. George Washington
Play: Davidson Pk
As expected, the betting public is all over the Colonials at a pick'em at home against the Wildcats. I have no problem playing Davidson in this spot. This Wildcats team can be electric offensively behind their dynamic duo of senior guard Jack Gibbs (22.9 ppg, 4.1 apg) and junior forward Peyton Aldridge (20.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg). We know we are going to get a big effort here from Davidson off a heartbreaking 80-82 loss at home to Richmond and that high-powered offense will be difficult for George Washington to keep up with, as the Colonials come in shooting just 40% from the field on the season. GW also enters off back-to-back losses and haven't played since 12/30. Home teams with as a dog or pick'em off back-to-back road games and playing with 5-6 days of rest are just 37-77 (32%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. We also see that Davidson is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 with a line of +3 to -3 and 10-2 ATS last 12 off a conference loss by 3 or less.
JACK JONES
Dallas Mavericks -6
The Dallas Mavericks are now almost fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season because of it. They have won five of their last nine games overall and have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests. I think we're getting a short price with them here at home against the Phoenix Suns tonight.
The Suns just don't play any defense. They give up 112.2 points per game on the season and 114.4 points per game away from home. They are just 4-16 in all road games this year, losing by an average of 8.1 points per game. They have lost six straight road games coming in.
The Mavericks have owned the Suns of late, winning four straight meetings in this series. They last three have all come by double-digits by 13, 10 and 16 points. Look for this dominance to continue tonight and for the Mavericks to cover their fourth straight overall and their fourth straight in the series.
Phoenix is 0-10 ATS in January road games over the past two seasons. Dallas is 12-1 ATS after allowing 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons. The Suns are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a straight up win. Phoenix is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 vs. Western Conference foes. The Mavericks are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on one days' rest.
ASA
Murray State vs. Jacksonville State
Play: Jacksonville State -4½
These two OVC foes battled just once last year with Murray winning at home by 15. Jax State made only 20 of their 60 shot attempts in that game (33%) and only went to the FT line 5 times. This is now a much improved Gamecock team and they get to play host this season. Speaking of playing host, Jacksonville State hasn’t had the opportunity to play at home much this year. In fact, they have played only one home game this ENTIRE season! Yes you read that correctly. This Gamecock team is a solid 9-7 on the year despite playing 13 true road games, 2 neutral site games, and just ONE home game. Their lone home game was a 31 point win on November 22nd and they have since played 11 straight road games winning 7 of those. That’s facing a fairly tough schedule (99th strength of schedule). Despite being on the road on and off since November 22, JSU should be fairly rested having not played since last Saturday. Murray State had played 6 true road games and they are 0-6 in those games. The Racers have been a shaky defensive team (277th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they are facing a solid shooting team as Jax State is 42nd nationally in eFG% and 33rd nationally in 3 point percentage. This is simply a huge game for Jacksonville State as they have lost 20 straight vs Murray State! This game has been circled in red on their calendar and despite those historical records, there is a reason this much improved JSU team is favored in this game. Lay the small number with Jacksonville State.
BRANDON SHIVELY
East Tennessee State vs. The Citadel
Play: East Tennessee State -13½
I like East Tennessee State to run away with this game. While this spread appears to be fairly large, with a total in 180’s, this spread is more like a -7 or -8 in a ‘regular game’ where the total would be in the 140 range. I hope that makes a bit of sense. I am saying this is expected to be a higher scoring game so this double digit spread is not too much to ask East Tenn State as they should get close, or top 100 points here.
East Tennessee State is a very good team, but not a lot of ‘folks’ have heard about them. They received a nice addition of D-1 transfers this year and have a solid backcourt, that can shoot the jumpers or slash to the basket. The real key in covering this spread though is the East Tennessee State defense, which ranks 64th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are forcing turnovers on 22.4% of possessions.
Defensively, Citadel is one of the worst in the country. They like to run at a very high pace, but they don’t like to play defense. Their preferred style is to try and outscore their opponent. That won’t work against East Tennessee State. East Tennessee shoots a high percentage from the 3 point line and Citadel doesn’t defend it. East Tennessee State also goes to the foul line quite often and Citadel loves to foul.
Citadel is off a rare road win at Wofford. A Wofford team that is several grades below East Tennessee State offensively and defensively. East Tennessee State has a game on deck vs Mercer. That is not a big game for them, so they have nothing in their way here and I see them cruising by about 19-21 points.
DAVE PRICE
Los Angeles Lakers +6
The Portland Trail Blazers are just 3-12 in their last 15 games overall. They could still be without Damian Lillard tonight, who is questionable to return with an ankle injury. Either way, I like the Lakers here because of the awful spot for the Blazers. They put everything in to their 117-125 road loss to the Golden State Warriors last night. Now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here and won't be nearly as interested against the Lakers. The Blazers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. The Lakers are coming off one of their best games of the season as they beat the Grizzlies 116-102 as 5-point home dogs on Tuesday. The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
CHASE DIAMOND
UTEP vs. Louisiana Tech
Play: UTEP +15½
This game has the 2-11 Utep and the 9-5 La-Tech. UTEP has been horrid losing 10 straight games and are 0-3 on the road but Vegas has over compensated the line in this one giving them a massive 16 points tonight. Bulldogs cashed in big in their first division win beating Southern Miss 79-55 but that triggered a great angle for us to use against them tonight. Louisiana Tech are a money burning 0-7 ATS following a conference win away from home. Easy play here take all the points and the UTEP Miners plus the points.
JIMMY BOYD
Purdue vs. Ohio State
Play: Purdue -3
I really like the value here with the Boilermakers as a small road favorite against the Buckeyes. I believe Purdue is one of the 15 best teams in the country and are simply undervalued here after an overtime loss at home to Minnesota as a 14-point favorite. The Boilermakers simply got off to a bad start in that one. It's going to have them locked in on the road here against a Ohio State squad that I haven't been all that impressed with.
Purdue is a team that has arguably the best frontcourt in the country with Caleb Swanigan, Isaac Haas and Vince Edwards. The Boilermakers rank 20th in scoring (84.5 ppg) 31st in rebounding (40.3 rpg) and 2nd in assists (20.3 apg). Ohio State simply doesn't have the size inside to handle this trio for Purdue and while they have some talented guards, they don't shoot the 3-ball well. The Buckeyes only average 6 made 3-pointers a game and are shooting just 32.6% from long-distance. That's going to make it extremely hard for Ohio State to consistently get good looks here.
Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite of 6.5 or less and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games after 3 or more games at home. Buckeyes are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 at least 15 games into the season against a dominant rebounding team that is outrebounding opponents by 4+ rebounds per game.
MATT JOSEPHS
Texas-San Antonio vs. Southern Miss
Play: Under128
Points will be at a premium in Southern Miss on Thursday. The Golden Eagles are averaging 59.8 points per game as they just don't have a ton of firepower. They've actually managed to score less then 50 three times this season and have cracked the 65 point mark just once in the opener against a school called Tougaloo. UTSA's not that much better offensively as they've had some clunkers on the road. The Roadrunners have put up 60 points or less twice away from home. They may be without key reserve Nick Billingsley who has been scoring as of late. The two have combined to go over just four times in 16 lined games. Last year this game was an under and an over. I think we could see this one played in the low 60s.
MIKE ANTHONY
Minnesota vs. Washington
Play: Over 210
Washington will do what they have been doing all year long, look to get production from their backcourt - from a variety of sources. Dishing 14 dimes, and 46 pts/game for Washington their starting Gs won't stop that scheme here. But matched up against a Minnesota team that gets stronger throughout as the game goes on, will be a slight challenge. Sometimes Andrew Wiggins can hang his shots a little - leaving himself open for tighter defense he has been completing only 44% of his shots this season. The Wolves don't knock down a lot from behind the arc very much, unless the team falls behind, and the Wizards's perimeter D will be too difficult to handle. Look for combined total score of points to be around 216-222.
SPORTS WAGERS
Columbus +118 over WASHINGTON
OT included. The Christmas and New Year’s breaks was something the Jackets didn’t want to see because when a team is on a roll like they were, all they want to do is play. The break could have impeded the Jackets momentum but instead it did the opposite. In their first game back after New Year’s, Columbus played a near flawless game in shutting down Connor McDavid and absolutely dominating the Oilers in a 3-1 win. That was a flattering score to the Oil and if not for Cam Talbot, that score would have been closer to 7-1. The Jackets will now bring their confidence and great form into this one and we’re thrilled to get on board.
There is no question that the Capitals are not the regular season juggernaut that they have been the past few years but they are still a strong team. Perhaps the toll of early playoff exits has the Caps putting less emphasis on the regular season while looking to peak come March and April. Time will tell but one thing we’re pretty sure of is that the Caps will be very interested in snapping the Jackets 16-game winning streak, especially in their house. Yes indeed, you can count on Washington showing up here. However, do you really trust the Caps in a big game atmosphere? Have they ever done anything to prove that when it counts most, they are tough as shoe leather? Not really. In big games, the Caps have a long history of choking and it starts with their leader. Whether it’s in international competition or the NHL, the team that Alex Ovechkin plays for usually loses when the lights get brightest. This is the marquee game of the night that has attracted hordes of media to the arena. The Caps are coming off a fortunate third period rally against the Maple Leafs. Prior to that, Washington went 2-2 against the Islanders, New Jersey (twice) and Ottawa. Braden Holtby was yanked in his last start and it may also surprise you to learn that the Capitals have a mere two wins in eight games against top-10 competition. In case you haven’t heard, the Jackets are among the top-10 and now they're the inferior team too.
Edmonton +136 over BOSTON
OT included. The Bruins are 3-4 over their last seven games but the three victories have occurred against Buffalo twice and Florida once. There are other disturbing issues in play here too. The Bruins lost 3-0 to New Jersey on Monday and took six minor penalties against a non-threatening offense like that one. The B’s also took 10 minors against Buffalo in the two games combined, which suggests that they are having difficulties getting the puck out of their end. Furthermore, one of Boston’s top energy guys and best player, David Backes is out. The Bruins have been moving players around quite bit from their defense pairings to minor league call-ups and back-down. That strongly suggests that the coach doesn’t like what he’s seeing. That also makes young players a little bit nervous or on their heels for fear of making a mistake and subsequently getting sent down. Lots of moving parts in Boston make the B’s a risky favorite. It’s also worth noting that Boston has a mere six wins in 19 games against top-16 competition.
The Oilers were in poor from in Columbus on Tuesday and it’s just so rare for a quality team to come up with back-to-back weak efforts. Whether the Oil wins or not here remains to be seen but we’re very confident that they’ll put forth a strong effort. The Oilers had lost just two of 14 games in regulation before that loss and while they virtually have the same record as Boston, they are in better form at the moment and that most definitely counts for something. The reports this week from the Oilers beat reporters say that Edmonton has had a couple of lively practices since that loss to Columbus and what follows lively practices is usually a very strong effort. Good price on a live pup here.
SAN JOSE -1½ +256 over Minnesota
OT included. Last night there were four teams coming off of long layoffs (by NHL standards) and none of them were sharp. The Flyers, Stars, Panthers and Ducks all had not played since New Year’s Eve and all four were playing teams that had at least one game under their belt since then. Philadelphia, Dallas and Florida were all playing teams that played the previous night and all three of those favorites lost outright. Detroit played on New Year’s Day in the Centennial Classic and lost to Anaheim, 2-0 but the Ducks were not sharp either last night. The point is that these longer layoffs this time of year have proven to be a very difficult spot for teams and now you can add one more layoff day for the Wild. Minnesota hosted Columbus on New Year’s Eve in a highly publicized game that saw two teams go at it with a combined 26-game winning streak on the line. The Jackets won 4-2.
We have often discussed in the past about fading a team the very next time out after a long winning streak is snapped. The reasoning behind it is that the streak itself takes on a life of its own after a certain amount of victories and with each passing victory, intensity levels increase. The media jumps all over it and before they know what hits them, that’s all the players are hearing about or being asked about. Well, once the streak is broken, the room empties out and now the players just go back to being a hockey team. There is an exhale of sorts and it’s incredibly difficult to get that intensity back right away. What we have now is two strong angles working against the Wild, which sets this one up beautifully for a quality outfit like the Sharks
SPORTS WAGERS
Stanford +7½ over USC
This is really a great time to be playing college basketball because the out-of-conference schedules are done and the result of it is an entire slew of teams with misleading stats and skewed numbers. USC is a great example of that with its 14-1 mark coming into this one. The Trojans are also 8-0 at home. According to Ken Pom, the Trojans are the 8th luckiest team in America while playing the 214th ranked schedule. The Trojans scheduled games against cupcakes and marshmallows and have rode it to a false ranking. However, USC’s true colors were exposed in its most recent outing when they were steamrolled in Oregon. The Trojans went into that game as a 9½-point dog and emerged as a 23-point loser. USC has not taken the court since this outing and who knows what effect it may have had on its psyche. USC was already punching above its weight heading into that tilt and they now go from a 9½-point dog to a 7½-point favorite in conference play in the span of six days. Let us remind you that USC barely escaped the clutches of Wyoming in the Las Vegas Classic where they would defeat the Cowboys by just two points in overtime despite being favored by nine. In the contests leading up to that one, USC would fail to cover against Missouri State and find themselves in dogfights with Cornell and Troy despite spotting at least 22 points to each.
The Cardinal sit above .500 this season at 8-6, but their stock is low because they have gone 2-5 in their previous seven. However, the Cardinal has faced teams such as Kansas and Miami on the road while also hosting an upstart St. Mary’s in Palo Alto. We can write an entire piece about the achievements of Kansas and Miami in 2015 and how this Stanford outfit was bold enough to take them on this year. Furthermore, St. Mary’s was a team that was undefeated at one point this season while sporting a #12 ranking. Kansas is ranked #4. Stanford also beat Seton Hall by 14 points and own a couple other quality wins against Colorado State and 2016 tourney qualifier Weber State. Stanford has played the 24th toughest schedule in America, which is 190 positions higher than USC’s 214th ranked schedule. What’s also driving this market is that Stanford is coming off a 39-point home loss to #18 Arizona. While there are no excuses for that loss, it did occur on New Year’s Day so who knows what a bunch of good-looking college kids were doing on New Year’s Eve. We will not put much weight whatsoever on that loss. Throw Stanford in some money line parlays because they can win outright but in terms of straight bets, invest on this very live dog to come in well under the number.
California +10½ over UCLA
UCLA stands at 14-1 and they sport a sparkling #4 ranking next to their name. The Bruins have a great win in Kentucky this year but that is their only real notable win of the year. As we have championed previously, when investing on a notorious “blue-chip” team with a great record, such as UCLA, expect to pay a premium. When said team is sitting in a peak position, expect that premium to be heftier. As a result, there has not been a better position for us this season to fade the Bruins.
UCLA is currently undefeated at home this season at 8-0 and they are catalyzed by a dynamic offense that leads the country in field goal efficiency (54.3%) while scoring 93.9 points per game and hitting 42.4% from three-point land. Those are compelling numbers to say the least that will undoubtedly entice many to swallow the points. Already this season, we have seen the Bruins spot 30 points to a couple of opponents and go 1-1 against the spread in both those endeavors. In fact, UCLA has failed to cover in their previous three after getting off to an incredible 10-2 ATS start. This signifies that the premium to back the Bruins was in play then and we trust it is in play here. UCLA’s great offense and overall record has masked its poor defensive play. The Bruins defense ranks 238th in scoring, 257th against the three and 171st in defensive rebounding. We now have a contrast of styles in play.
The Golden Bears are a team that relies on their defense to win games. Cal stands at 10-4 this season because its defense has paved the way for them. Cal ranks in the top-12 in scoring defense, opponent field goal percentage and opponent three-point field goal percentage. California is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and they fair very well on the defensive rebounding side as well. As a member of the offensive oriented Pac-12, Cal’s effective style figures to serve them well and it could also sneak up on some teams. Cal has been battle tested too. After losing to SDSU in its third game of the year, the Bears other three losses since have occurred against a very good Seton Hall team by just three points, to #12 Virginia by just four points and finally to #18 Arizona by just five points.
UCLA has been relying on their offense to win games but what happens when they meet a rival that has confidence against them who will impose their defense upon them? We’re going to find out real soon but what we know for sure is that we’re going with the best of it by taking back these inflated points.
Zack Cimini
Atlanta vs. New Orleans
Pick: Atlanta
Atlanta travels to New Orleans as a road underdog, primarily for the reason of playing in a back to back scenario. New Orleans has attraction here after playing well against the Cavs for the large portion of their last matchup. Yet, I like the Hawks balance offensively to keep on having success even on the road here. They've won five of their last six match ups by scoring over 105 points in all but one.