DAVE COKIN
WARRIORS AT CAVALIERS
PLAY: WARRIORS +2
It’s Game Six between Golden State and Cleveland, with the Cavaliers fresh off a brilliant performance at Oakland that allowed them to keep their comeback hopes alive.
I see tonight’s game as one where regardless of your viewpoint, you can build a compelling case for the side you think will win.
What that means is, while I will be on the road team tonight, I really can’t argue against those who believe the Cavaliers will get the victory and force the ultimate Game Seven this weekend.
Here’s what I like on the Golden State side. Obviously, there’s the return of Draymond Green from his one-game suspension. The Warriors missed him more than I thought they would. Oddly enough, I also feel Golden State could actually benefit from not having Andrew Bogut. Fact is, they’ve been a better team in this series when Bogut was sitting as opposed to when he was on the floor. That’s in the numbers for those who might want to take issue with that observation.
As for the Cavs, if LeBron James and Kyree Irving duplicate their incredible performances in Game Five, I will lose my bet and these two teams will be playing one more time at Oracle for the championship. But I just can’t see a rerun, and while I can’t forecast a monster bounce by either or both players, I’ll be kind of shocked if they even approach the 82 combined points that were registered on Monday night.
The Warriors probably peaked sometime around mid-season. They weren’t as dominant down the regular season stretch, and they haven’t really overmatched the opposition in the playoffs. That said, they’ve still been the best team out there, and that includes this series to date. Yeah, the two losses were nasty, but Golden State still leads the series and they’re still in the -400 neighborhood to win the title.
In the end, it’s that last sentence that puts me over the top here. I certainly won’t be shocked if Cleveland wins this game. But when the Warriors have had to win over the last two seasons, they’ve managed to do exactly that virtually every time. I’ll take the decade with the Golden State to get it done one more time tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Pirates vs. Mets
Play: Mets -130
The Mets erupted scoring double digits last night and that sets them up in big Database system that has a 56-12 record since 2004 playing on certain home favorites off a home favored win off a home favored win scoring 10 or more runs vs a team that scored 2 or less runs if the total is 8 or less and both teams had 1 or no errors, The Mets have Colon going and he has been stellar with a 2.73 home Era, allowing 3 or less runs in 11 of his 12 starts and he has won his last 6 Home starts in June. He will oppose the Pirates Nicolino who is 1-4 with a 6.20 road Era this year. The Pirates have lost 13 of the last 18. Look for the Mets to take the finale.
Mike Lundin
Kansas City +109
The Kansas City Royals are back in business and enter Thursday's series-opener against the Detroit Tigers riding a five-game winning streak. They've won four of the past five meetings at Kauffman, and I like the Royals in this contest.
Danny Duffy (2-1, 2.94) will take the ball for KC. He's done well since joining the rotation, and he recorded a season-high 10 strikeouts in six scoreless innings of three-hit ball against the White Sox his last time out. Duffy has posted a 3.09 ERA while limiting the Tigers to just a .206 batting average in previous meetings and we can note that the Tigers are 0-4 in their last four road games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Tigers turn to Justin Verlander (6-5, 3.77). The veteran has won back-to-back starts and he's been solid all year. The Royals bats are heating up though and they scored nine runs in last night's win against the Tribe. Salvador Perez is 13-for-28 with four blasts in his last seven games and an impressive 21-for-44 in previous meetings with Verlander.
Royals are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 7-1 in their last eight after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.
Marc Lawrence
Pirates vs. Mets
Play: Mets -132
Edges - Mets: Bartolo Colon 8-1 last nine overall home team starts during June, including 6-0 the last six. Pirates: Juan Nicascio 1-4 away team starts with 6.20 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season as opposed to 5-1 home with a 2.43 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. With the Mets 2-0 in games versus N.L. Central foes behind Colon this season, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Mets.
Scott Spreitzer
Texas at Oakland
Play: Texas -114
The last place Oakland Athletics had a 5-0 lead last night with Sonny Gray on the mound and still couldn't win and now have lost nine of their last 11 games. It won't likely get any easier against Colby Lewis who has quality starts in eight of his last 10 appearances, including a 2-1 win at Seattle on Saturday when he allowed just one run and three hits in eight innings. Lewis was 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and .153 opponent batting average against Oakland last year and the A's are 25th in the major leagues with a .692 OPS against right-handers. Daniel Mengden will be making his second start after allowing two runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings at Cincinnati on Saturday. Texas owns the best record in the American League and has won 14 of its last 18 games and the Rangers are 9-3 their last 12 games versus righties.
Bob Harvey
Warriors vs. Cavaliers
Play: Warriors +2½
The Golden State Warriors take another shot at clinching their second straight title when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 6 of the championship series. Tip-off is set for 9 PM ET at Quicken Loans Arena where the Cavs are trying to become the first team ever to overcome a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals. They'll need another sizzling effort from Kyrie Irving and LeBron James, who combined for 82 points in Monday’s 112-97 victory.
The Warriors (88-16, 59-43 ATS) will be at full strength with the return of Draymond Green who was suspended for Game 5. Green was sorely missed on both ends but most notably on offense where Golden State went 3 of 22 from 3-point range in the second half on Monday after draining 11 of 21 before the break. It’s been a sub-par series for league MVP Stephen Curry who went 8 of 21 from the field on Monday and is averaging 22.2 points on 42.4 percent shooting in the series, down from a league-best 30.1 points on 50.4 percent in the regular season.
The Cavs (71-30, 48-50 ATS) needed historic performances from James and Irving to extend the series and they delivered. The duo became the first pair of teammates in NBA Finals history to score at least 40 points in the same game when they both finished with 41 in Game 5.
The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Cleveland and 7-3 last 10 overall.
The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings while the Cavs are 7-1 to the low side in their last eight home games.
Jim Feist
Nationals at Padres
Pick: Under
Washington was involved in a defensive game yesterday at home against the Cubs and has a quick turnaround, flying 3,000 miles for this one. Petco Park is huge, tough on hitters, and the under is 15-5-2 when the Nationals are on the road against a team with a losing home record. Tanner Roark goes here, with a 2.93 ERA and he struck out seven and gave up just six hits over seven scoreless innings against the Phillies on Saturday. The Under is 8-3-1 in Roark's last 12 starts overall. He faces a bad San Diego offense, #23 in runs scored, #29 in on base percentage. The Under is 36-16-5 when the Padres are at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. And the Under is 35-17-3 in the last 55 meetings in San Diego.
Bruce Marshall
Orioles at Red Sox
Pick: Red Sox -1.5
Baltimore starter Tyler Wilson is losing his zip, as his ERA is 6.67 in his last six starts that includes a May 30 loss to the Bosox at Camden Yards. Can't say much for Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez, either, with a 6.06 ERA in three starts, though his best effort was that May 30 game in Baltimore when working six efficient innings, allowing just 2 runs in that aforementioned 6-2 win.
Larry Ness
Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
J.A. Happ was a third-round pick of the Phillies in 2004, then was sent to Houston at the 2010 trade deadline as part of the deal that brought Philadelphia veteran right-hander Roy Oswalt. Happ, now 33 years-old, is in his second tour of duty with the Blue Jays, one of FIVE teams for which he has pitched in his 10-year career. It going fairly well for him, as he enters 7-3 with a 3.70 ERA in 13 starts (team is 8-5). However, he has allowed 10 ERs in 12 innings while splitting his last two starts. He earned an 11-6 victory over Baltimore his last time out, going seven innings but allowing four runs on eight hits, including three home HRs.
The Blue Jays lost the first of this four-game series sto the Phillies 7-0 on in Toronto on Monday but have rebounded to win 11-3 on Tuesday (at Toronto) and then 7-2 last night in Philly. Taking the mound tonight in Philadelphia for the Phillies will be Aaron Nola (5-5, 2.98 ERA). Nola has alternated wins and losses over his last six starts, after allowing four runs in just 3.2 innings of an 8-0 loss Saturday at Washington. Nola was the Phillies' first-round pick in 2014 and Saturday’s outing was the shortest of his two-year career. "Nola just didn't look in sync," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said, according to MLB.com. "There was something about his rhythm that just didn't look right. He didn't make that many bad pitches, but he didn't look like he was in sync." That performance was also in stark contrast to his previous one, when the 23-year-old struck out nine over six scoreless innings in an 8-1 rout of Milwaukee.
Nola struggled in his one career start vs Toronto, issuing four walks to drive up his pitch count before exiting after five innings in a no-decision (5.40 ERA). As for Happ, he is 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA in three career starts against the Phillies, the team he started his big league career with. More importantly, the Blue Jays have won 18 of their last 26 games, while the stumbling Phillies have lost 19 of their last 25. Blue Jays are the play.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals +105
The Royals are definitely worth a shot as a small home dog tonight. Lefty Danny Duffy has been very good in his six starts since joining the rotation. Duffy has struck out 59 batters in only 49 innings of work, and the Royals are 5-1 with him on the mound. Duffy allowed two runs or less in all seven of his starts against the Tigers since the 2013 season. And that very solid KC bullpen has been especially tough as of late. Definite bullpen edge for KC. The Royals have won five straight games overall, and they are 17-5 at home against right-handed starters. Detroit has been gaining ground in the AL Central, and Justin Verlander is no slouch. But the Tigers are just 7-15 in their last 22 road games. Take a shot on the defending champs as home dogs tonight.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Seattle at Tampa Bay
Play: Under 7.5
Seattle left-hander James Paxton takes the mound in excellent form with a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts, including throwing 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball against the Rangers in his last outing. While Paxton's first start of 2016 was an unmitigated disaster, it's important to remember that he possesses an incredible upside and posted a 3.16 ERA in 165 innings pitched from 2013 to 2015. The 27-year-old also boasts a 3.33 FIP, 1.91 xFIP and 2.50 SIERA this season, together with a 32.9% K%, 5.5% BB% and 27.4% K-BB%.
Paxton now faces an injury-riddled Tampa Bay squad missing outfielders Steven Souza (212 AB), Brandon Guyer (144 AB) and Kevin Kiermaier (123 AB), all of whom are out with injuries. Matters got even worse for Tampa Bay last night when third baseman Evan Longoria was removed in the 11th-inning of last night's game due to tightness in his left forearm. I expect Longoria, who is batting .278 with 16 home runs and 40 RBIs, to be held out of this afternoon's game.
Paxton is also backed by a solid Seattle bullpen that owns a 3.17 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season, including a 2.58 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road and a 1.90 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in day games. The Rays also possess a strong bullpen that boasts a 3.63 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 2016, including a 1.25 ERA over the last seven games. Tampa Bay prospect Blake Snell toes the rubber after blowing through three minor-league levels - High-A, Double-A and Triple-A last year where he posted a 1.41 ERA and 2.71 WHIP.
Snell struck out an incredible 31% of opposing hitters, which was the best mark among pitchers to record at least 120 minor-league innings in 2015. In 63.0 Triple-A innings this season, Snell posted a 3.29 ERA and 2.57 FIP, together with a 33.3% K% and 23.0% K-BB%. In his first major league start this season, Snell limited the Yankees to one run over five innings of work. Let's also note that the Mariners are averaging a woeful 3.9 runs per game versus left-handed starters (.236 AVG.; .286 OBP; .666 OPS).
Technically speaking, the UNDER is 44-15-2 in the last 61 meetings in Tampa Bay between these squads and 21-8-1 in the Rays' last 30 home games. With the UNDER standing at 12-2 in Tampa Bay's home games following a win this season, take the UNDER 7.5 runs and invest with confidence.
Sleepyj
Milwaukee +1.5 -140
I'll take a shot here with the Brewers on the RL...I like this Guerra enough to play him straight up at times...So getting a run and a half Vs Kazmir is a go for me tonight....Guerra has pitched rather well in his starts this year...He hasn't allowed games to get away from him for the most part...He has a 3.31ERA and a WHIP of 1.18....He has allowed a few 3 and 4 ER games, but also has a few 0 and 1 ER games as well....Walks can be an issue and so can the longball...If he can limit that here tonight in Dodger stadium, I think the Brewers can hit Kazmir enough to keep this close or perhaps even win outright...Kazmir has been up and down all season, but the Brewers can get after LHP from time to time..Close game IMO tonight.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Over at Fenway Park when Baltimore and Boston conclude their latest series.
Tonight we have Tyler Wilson and Eduardo Rodriguez throwing the pearl, and Wilson's numbers certainly suggest the Boston bats make much contact tonight.
Wilson brings in a 2-5 mark for the season, with a 4.73 season ERA. He has an even higher 7.16 ERA the last 3 times he has climbed the mound, and the Over stands at 6-2-1 his last 9 assignments. That one push came against Boston back on May 30th, as he worked into the 7th with 3 runs allowed.
As for Rodriguez, his first start this season was against the O's, as he went a solid 6 innings while allowing only 2 runs in a game that landed Under the total.
Since then though, Rodriguez has allowed 9 runs to score over his last 10-plus innings pitched.
Baltimore has played 7 of their last 9 on the road Over the total, while Boston is on a 13-5-2 Over clip their last 20 home dates.
Have to look for the runs to add up in this one.
O's-Sox Over.
3* BALTIMORE-BOSTON OVER
BRANDON LEE
Yankees -140
New York is worth a look here against the Twins. The Yankees will have C.C. Sabathia on the mound against Kyle Gibson. A year ago, I was constantly looking to fade Sabathia, but he's found new life in 2016. He comes in at 4-4 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in 10 starts. He hasn't allowed a run in each of his last 2 starts and has given up a total of 3 earned runs in his last 6 starts. I'll take my chances with Sabathia and the Yankees in this one, as Gibson is 0-4 with a 6.49 ERA in 5 starts. His last two have been especially bad, as he's given up 12 runs on 14 hits in just 8 2/3 innings.
JIMMY BOYD
Pirates +119
Pittsburgh is showing some great value here as a small road underdog against the Mets on Thursday. The Pirates are way undervalued at the moment, due to losing 6 of their last 7, including yesterday's 9-run loss. It's only a matter of time before Pittsburgh gets this thing turned around and I like their chances of doing just that tonight.
Pirates will send out Juan Nicasio, who just shut down the Mets in his most recent start, giving up just 1 run on 3 hits and 2 walks with 7 strikeouts in 5 innings of work. Nicasio is now 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 3 career starts against New York. The Mets will counter with veteran Bartolo Colon, who has pitched extremely well given his age.
Colon hasn't pitched since 6/9 and is a mere 1-4 in his last 5 starts with 6 days of rest. He's also 0-6 in his last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record. As for the Pirates, they are a dominant 14-3 in their last 17 when they come into a game having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, winning by an average of 2.6 runs/game (5.5-2.9).