Free Picks for Thursday, June 1st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Art Aronson
Cavs vs. Warriors
Play: Warriors -7
We think this is going to be a competitive series, but we’re expecting the Warriors to pull away down the stretch in Game 1 for a comfortable ATS victory. Golden State finally gets its shot at revenge after falling apart with a 3-1 lead in last year’s Final (we had a play on the Cavaliers in Game 7 on the MONEY-LINE last season). This is the third straight time these teams have met in the Finals. Their strengths and weaknesses are well known to even the casual basketball fan. Both teams are stacked top to bottom with offensive and defensive talent. Each has a lot of experience and fantastic coaching staffs. Note that Cleveland is just 10-13 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and only 13-15 ATS this season against good offensive teams that score 106-plus points per contest, while the Warriors are 23-13 ATS against good offensive teams which average over 106 points.
Allen Eastman
Colorado at Seattle
Play: Under
This game will be the finale of a four-game home-and-home between these two teams. The games will likely be high scoring in Coors Field. But Seattle is the opposite. It is a pitcher's park, and the games will be lower scoring. Seattle will be going with Yovani Gallardo in this game. Gallardo has an ERA of 5.76 on the season. But he has only had one bad start this month. He has allowed three or fewer runs in four of the last five starts. I think Gallardo will have a good start here. Kyle Freeland is in line to start for the Rockies in this one. He has just a 3.43 ERA and he has thrown a quality start in six of his last seven starts. The 'under' has hit in five of their last six games. The 'under' is 3-1 in Colorado's last four games. Seattle is one of the worst teams in the league against left-handed pitchers. They are hitting just .213 against lefties. I think they will struggle in this game, and I see a low-scoring contest.
Vernon Croy
Los Angeles at St. Louis
Play: Under
This picks falls into one of my top MLB systems and I really think this pitching match-up favors the UNDER here Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals have hit just .110 as a team lifetime against McCarthy with an OBP of just .165, and slugging percentage of just .123. The Dodgers have hit just .234 as a team lifetime against Wainwright with an OBP of .281 and he has pitched solid in his two day-game starts this season with an ERA of just 0.68. Opponents have hit just .191 against Wainwright during those two day-game starts (13.1 innings) and he has pitched lights-out during the month of May with an ERA of just 2.64 after a slow start to the season in April.
Scott Rickenbach
Milwaukee at New York
Play: Milwaukee +134
Chase Anderson has been a streaky pitcher for the Brewers this season. He started off strong this season, then hit a tough patch, and now I have a strong suspicion that he is back! Anderson threw a gem versus Arizona last week and really threw heat while striking out 11 Diamondbacks. The Brewers are off of a 7-1 win yesterday and Anderson and his teammates will bring plenty of confidence for this one. Milwaukee is 6-2 this season in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Mets are 6-11 this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, New York is an ugly 3-9 in day games this season. A lot of underdog value here as the Mets lost Zach Wheeler's first three home stats this season. Though they've now won the last 2 home games with Wheeler on the mound, he did walk 9 in the 11 innings spanning those two outings. The point is that New York is a "questionable" favorite to be in this price range today and I like Anderson and the underdog Brewers in this spot.
Scott Spreitzer
Minnesota at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -109
Minnesota is in first place in the AL Central by percentage points, but you would never know it by the humiliating week it currently is suffering through. The Twins have allowed 48 runs their last four games while using 23 pitchers and the Astros scored 16 and 17 runs against them in two different games. Also, the Twins blew leads in Sunday's matchup against Tampa Bay and ended up losing in 15 innings. The Twins have played better on the road, but this still is a tough situation traveling to the West Coast with a beleaguered bullpen. Adalberto Mejia has a 4.64 ERA in five games and in his one road start gave up three runs (two earned) in 1 2/3 innings against the White Sox. Alex Meyer is making his first start since coming off the disabled list due to back spasms and will face the Twins for the first time. Los Angeles is 17-9 at home and comes off a 2-1 win over the Braves last night.
Marc Lawrence
Rockies vs. Mariners
Play: Rockies +116
Edges - Rockies: Freeland 5-0 with 2.89 ERA and 1.32 WHIP away… Mariners: Gallardo 1-4 with 7.00 ERA and 1.59 WHIP home this season… With Gallardo 1-4 his last five overall home team starts, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Tony Karpinski
Rockies vs. Mariners
Play: Under 8½
This game will be the finale of a 4-game home-and-home between the Colorado Rockies and the Seattle Mariners. This is a day game after a night game so I like the UNDER in this one on Thursday afternoon. Seattle plays in a pitcher's ballpark, and the games will be lower scoring. Seattle will be going with Yovani Gallardo in this game. He has allowed three or fewer runs in four of the last five starts. Kyle Freeland is in line to start for the Rockies in this one. He has just a 3.43 ERA and he has thrown a quality start in six of his last seven starts. Seattle is one of the worst teams in the league against left-handed pitchers. They are hitting just .213 against lefties. Everything points to the UNDER in this one.
Dustin Hawkins
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Red Sox -116
Baltimore is 0-9 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season. Orioles pitcher Wade Miley is 1-11 against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Miley is 0-1 when starting against Boston with an ERA of 40.60 and a WHIP of 6.767.
John Ryan
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins +117
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Miami is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.
We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons.
So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following system has gone 83-66 hitting 55.7% winners and has made 49.6 units/unit wagered since 2012. The system has also averaged an impressive 139 dog play. Play against all NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ARIZONA) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season.
Methodology Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Marlins.
Jim Feist
Yankees at Blue Jays
Pick: Over
This is a good home run park and New York is in town with a Top 5 offense. New York is 9-2 over the total against the AL East. Starter C.C. Sabathia (4.42 ERA) goes for New York and Toronto is 10-3 over the total during game 1 of a series. And the Over is 5-2 in Marco Estrada's last 7 starts vs. the Yankees.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +129 over NEW YORK
Zach Wheeler’s return from TJS last year was pushed back multiple times by elbow pain and he threw only one inning of rehab work. He was finally shut down and didn’t resume work until pitchers and catchers reported for spring training. Nine games in and there are some things to like about Zach Wheeler but not enough to warrant being this price against the feisty Brew Crew with Chase Anderson starting.
Both Wheeler’s control and first-pitch strike rate have been a little shaky throughout his career and this year's marks are right in line with his career norms. He's missing bats at about the same rate as he did prior to his injury and should continue to rack up his fair share of strikeouts. He's still doing a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground as well. He's been a little unlucky with his home run per fly ball rate, so homers aren't likely to be an ongoing issue for him. Wheeler was a true wild card heading into the season after having missed the last two seasons but his skills look nearly identical to those from 2014, prior to the injury. The problem is that Wheeler gets himself into trouble with walks and is therefore prone to three-run innings. With 12 walks in his past 23 innings, a WHIP of 1.40 and an xERA of 4.22 over his last five starts, there is too much risk in this starter and team for our liking.
Chase Anderson’s numbers are almost identical to Zach Wheeler’s. Anderson’s ERA/xERA split is 3.72/4.02 while Wheeler’s is 3.83/4.02. Anderson has a BB/K split of 22/52 over 56 frames while Wheeler’s split is 22/45 over 49 frames. Anderson’s numbers and metrics just keep getting progressively betting and as a result, he’s being sold short here. Anderson’s swing and miss rate was 18% last game and is now 12% on the year. He has 28 K’s over his past 26 innings and in four of his 10 starts this year Anderson has allowed one run or less. The Brewers are playing some great baseball and it’s been consistent all season, which also adds to their appeal here.
Colorado +130 over SEATTLE
Kyle Freeland is not our target here. In fact, it looks like things could turn bumpy soon for Freeland because his success has had more to do with a high strand % and low hr/f than skill. His xERA shows that he's due for a sizable ERA correction, which is going to come but with a 61% groundball rate, we’ll hope he hangs on for at least one more start.
The real target here is fading Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo should not be bet, ever and he certainly cannot be priced in this range either. His early results underscore why that is the case (5.76 ERA, 5.90 xERA, 1.59 WHIP). His underlying skills give no reason for optimism either with a BB/K split of 25/41 in 55 frames and a swing and miss rate of 5%. This is a starter that missed two months with a shoulder injury after a rough April last year but things hardly improved upon his return. Gallardo is posting career-worst command, skills, and xERA, while his first-pitch strike rate of 54% continues to speak to his strained relationship with the strike zone. The pitcher you remember from 2009-12 no longer exists so it's time to move on and fade this stiff whenever possible.
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +175 over Minnesota
Adalberto Mejia went 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA in 2 innings for the Twins last year. This prospect with a decent repertoire and pitchability was shut down shortly after that late-August MLB debut due to innings limit. He had an impressive 3.00 ERA with a 126/30 K/BB split in 132 IP at AA/AAA levels but this could be a case of pushing a prospect too hard too fast because the Twins pitching staff is one of desperation. This season, Mejia has one pure quality start in five tries. Over 21 innings, has 19 K’s but he’s walked 12 batters. He also has a fly-ball lean profile, which is another sign he’s overthrowing or trying to do more than he’s capable of. Mejia has upside but he’s too green with just under 90 innings of work at the Triple-A level. He’s worth watching but he’s not MLB ready just yet. Furthermore, the Twins bullpen is in serious trouble after the team lost its last four games by scores of 8-6, 16-8, 7-2 and 17-6. That bodes well for the Halos because Mejia is not likely to go past five and that’s if everything goes better than expected.
Alex Meyer is a sufficiently large human (6’9”, 225 pounds) now in his third organization, who has been battling both his control and ability to stay on the mound. A former first-round pick by the Nationals in 2011, Meyer ended up in the Angels organization via the Twins, where Los Angeles had Meyer raise his arm slot and work on developing a consistent off-speed offering. His fastball is still plus, maybe plus-plus when he’s really on it, coming in around 95-96 and touching 99 with good life. He can also take something off the pitch to give it natural sinking action in the low 90s. His slider can also be a plus pitch but much of his control problems stem from losing the release point on the pitch. The Angels are hoping that getting back to his higher slot helps the shoulder and control, as he’s been going backwards in terms of IP, logging 50.1 IP between the majors and minors last season after going for 94.2 in 2015 and 130.1 in 2014. Consistency and staying on the field, both in a general health-wise sense and working deeper into games will be the name of the game for Meyer in 2017.
His last work was on May 20 against the Mets in which he went just four innings and surrendered three earned runs. Meyer only allowed three hits and struck out seven batters in that start 11 days ago but he walked four batters. He’s been working on his control since and if he ever gets it under control, he’s going to be a beast out there. Alex Meyer has filthy stuff. He has struck out 28 batters in 23 innings. His age (27) and his live arm keeps this flame very alive for us, as he’s a minor tweak away from being dominating and he’s paid his dues too.
SPORTS WAGERS
NBA Finals Preview
We know a lot of our readers are going to be betting this “must-see” NBA finals so we’re going to give you some recommendations on how to bet it based on value. Personally, we’re playing it LIVE, in-game because that’s where the best value opportunities arise. However, there are certainly other ways to bet it too.
The Warriors greatness has been written about and talked about everywhere. There is nothing we can say that is going to add to their toughness, talent or determination. Throw the amazing Kevin Durant into the mix this year and betting against these Warriors becomes even more daunting. That said, there is truly only one way to bet this and that is to play the Cavaliers in the series and/or individually in the games. The Warriors hype train is off the charts, which means the Cavaliers are being offered inflated points/prices and it’s a horrible idea to be offering LeBron James and the Cavs exaggerated points. Aside from also being incredibly talented, the Cavaliers are being disrespected here, which means they’ll come into this series with a chip on their shoulder knowing that nobody gives them a chance. Golden State -270? Are you kidding!?
It would be one thing if the Cavs had no chance, just like any team that played them or Golden State in the playoffs but that’s not the case here. The Cavs have a chance and if they do win, it’ll probably be in six games because chances are that they are not going to win another Game 7 in Golden State should it get that far. Beating the Warriors four times seems impossible but here’s why the Cavaliers should be played in the series and/or taking seven points in Game 1 or anytime they are being offered points:
For all the analytics, predictors, oddsmakers, etc., the NBA Finals tend to be decided by the best player. Since 2010, you could squint and see the best player winning the NBA Championship in six of the seven series—and even that is debatable considering the way Kawhi Leonard played offensively and defensively in that 2014 matchup against the Miami Heat. Would anyone argue that LeBron James is not the best player in the world right now? No, they wouldn’t.
For all the talk about the mismatches that the Warriors lineup creates, they are predominantly a perimeter team. Their 19.8 drives (to the basket) per game illustrate that point. The Warriors want to push the tempo of the game. They look to move the ball, run the court and exploit mismatches at any chance they get. Because of this, the Warriors prefer to have Draymond Green on the floor as a “Center” in order to maximize their style of play offensively and defensively. One need only look to the minutes per game played in the postseason for confirmation of that point. The Warriors players, who have logged the most minutes per game during this postseason run, are (in order): Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala. No traditional centers in their top five. You would have to go nine deep in terms of minutes per game before finding a traditional center who has logged significant minutes for the Warriors during the playoffs. Cleveland can exploit this. While leaving Kevin Love and Tristen Thompson on the floor could pose some defensive matchup problems, it can also create some opportunities for the Cavs to grab more rebounds and control the game. The Warriors grabbed only 69.1% of available defensive rebounds in their matchup against the Spurs—a team similar to the Cavs in their ability to play with two skilled big men. The Warriors rebounding percentage was the worst of any team in the conference finals—in either conference. Finally, Tristan Thompson has grabbed at least seven offensive rebounds in a game three times this postseason. Look for that trend to continue against the Warriors.
What about depth? The addition of Kevin Durant wasn’t one without a price. While the Warriors won the Durant sweepstakes, they lost Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Mareese Speights, Harrison Barnes and Leandro Barbosa. Sure, Durant essentially replaces Barnes, but that is a lot for any team to lose—especially for the second unit. The Warriors have scored 122.5 points per 100 possessions with Stephen Curry on the floor. News flash: That is a lot of points. The Warriors are not so fortunate when Curry goes to the bench, however—averaging a mere 97.4 points per 100 possessions during that time. That 25.1 point swing is the largest on-off differential among players who have logged at least 100 minutes in the playoffs so the Warriors need Curry on the floor. As drastic as those offensive numbers are, the defensive gaps for the Warriors are just as significant when Draymond Green takes a breather. When Green is on the floor, teams have scored just 94.4 points per 100 possessions. Compare that with the success teams have had scoring when Green was on the bench—111.9 per 100 possessions. That is a 17.5 point jump with Green resting so the Warriors need Green on the Floor too. Both Channing Frye (72.7%) and Kyle Korver (62.3%)— two key reserves for the Cavs— rank in the top 10 in effective field goal percentage among the 88 players who have taken at least 50 shots in the playoffs. That does not bode well for the Warriors—advantage Cavs.
“Styles make fights” is a phrase often used in the boxing world but is applicable here. It simply means that sometimes wins and losses are decided more by match-ups and style of play than it is by talent.
Whenever LeBron James is on your team, you have a chance to win. He can score with the best of them, but he really turns the game on the defensive side of the ball. Having a player like LeBron, who can guard a point guard and a center in the same defensive possession is a luxury and a rarity. LeBron’s ability to mask the weaknesses of others on the defensive side of the ball is something to keep an eye on. The Warriors succeed on offense by moving the ball, setting screens and creating mismatches. Having a player capable of defending every Warriors player on the floor will create a unique challenge for the Warriors. We saw how much the Warriors struggled against the Spurs before Kawhi Leonard got hurt—the Warriors were losing by 23 at home.
We could go on and on about the advanced metrics, the style of play, the free throw attempts per game, the points per possession and so on but ultimately, nobody on the Warriors can guard LeBron James one-on-one while the Cavs have players that can slow down the Warriors. That could be the difference between winning and losing but the inflated points being offered makes the Cavaliers such a great game-to-game option.
Our recommendation is to take +7 in Game 1 to begin and play it by ear from there. Playing Cavs to win series @ +220 is another great value bet. Good luck and enjoy.
Will Rogers
Twins vs. Angels
Pick: Angels
The set-up: Albert Pujols' quest for his 600th career HR has gone largely unnoticed and has definitely gone under-appreciated. That quest continues when the LA Angels open a four-game home series against the Minnesota Twins. The 26-23 Twins only marginally own a better record than the 28-28 Angels but while Minnesota is in a virtual first-place tie with the Indians in the AL Central, the Angels may be a second place team in the AL West but they trail the Astros by 11 games! Both teams come in 5-5 over their last 10 but the Twins are in the midst of a four-game slide in which they've surrendered a total of 48 runs. Minnesota just got swept at home by the aforementioned Astros, while allowing 40 runs in three games!
The pitching matchup: Adalberto Mejia (1-1 & 4.64 ERA) gets the nod for the Twins and Alex Meyer (2-2 & 5.79 ERA) for the Indians. Mejia has made five starts in 2017 and while he he has yet to allow more than three runs in any one start, he has worked more than five innings just once in those five outings. Mejia has never faced the Angels. Meyer returns from a stint on the disabled list due to back spasms to make his sixth start of the season. He only missed one turn and Meyer, who was acquired from Minnesota in the deal involving Ricky Nolasco last August, will be facing his former team for the first time.have
The pick: Meyer owns a 5.79 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in five starts for the Angels in 2017 but those in the Los Angeles organization still reportedly have faith in their 6-foot-9 right-hander. Mejia is a work in progress and started the season as the No. 5 starter but had three rough outings and was sent to Triple-A sporting a 5.79 ERA. He returned to start the second game of a doubleheader on May 21 against the Kansas City Royals and earned his first major league victory. He gave up three runs in five innings for a no-decision against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. He has control issues and has given up 12 walks in just 21 1/3 innings this year. Mejia can't be expected to go much more than five innings and Minnesota's bullpen has allowed 36 runs (32 earned) over 24 innings during the team's four-game losing streak (that's an ERA of 12.00!).
Alex Smart
Twins vs. Angels
Play: Over 8½
Mejia the Twins starter has yet to go more than 5 innings this season, and is backed by a bullpen, that owns a 5.17 overall ERA. Before being sent to the minors earlier this season Mejia accumulated a bloated 5.79 ERA. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent from the Halos, Im betting will exhibit some rust today after being on the disabled list for 11 days with back spasms. Meyer is 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA in five starts for the Angels, and has bounced back and forth from the minors like his pitching opponent Mejia.He is a former Twin, so they know what he has to offer as a pitcher.Meyer made four appearances (one start) for the Twins between 2015-16. He allowed 10 runs over 6 1/3 innings with his former club.
Both these starting throwers look ripe to give up a boatload full of runs tonight.
The Twins are slumping and have lost 4 straight, and have surrendered 48 runs in that span, and the momentum of that barage has a high probabilty of continuing in California tonight. In three of those losses the Twins still managed to score 8, 6,6 runs and must not be underestimated to do some offensive damage again.
Over is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 33-16-4 in Twins last 53 vs. American League West.Over is 4-1 in Angels last 5 home games.Over is 6-1 in Meyers last 7 starts overall. Over is 5-2-2 in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.Over is 41-18-5 in the last 64 meetings.
MINNESOTA is 52-19 OVER L/71 vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start.MINNESOTA is 20-6 OVER L/26 in June games with a combined average of 10.6 rpg going on the board.