Brandon Lee
Rockies vs. Mariners
Play: Over 8½
I'm calling for a bunch of runs on the board in tonight's matchup between the Mariners and Rockies. Seattle's offense is rolling right now, as they have scored at least 5 runs in each of their last 4 games and have racked up an impressive 55 hits as a team during this 4-game stretch. I look for them to keep it going here against Colorado's Kyle Freeland, who has a 4.58 ERA in his last 3 starts. I also look for the Rockies offense to get it going here, as they will take on the struggling Yovani Gallardo, who has a 5.76 ERA in 10 starts overall, 7.00 ERA in 5 outings at home and 8.81 ERA in his last 3 starts. Gallardo is also 0-5 with a 6.18 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rockies.
Cappers Club
Cavs vs. Warriors
Play: Over 225
This play just missed out on our premium card. The NBA Finals kick off on Thursday night and with two offensive powerhouses facing off, the over has a ton of value.
Both of these teams cruised through their side of the playoff bracket and it was because of the offensive side of the floor.
The Warriors ranked first in points per game with over 115 a game. The Cavaliers averaged 110.3 per game which was fourth.
I expect both of these teams will come out firing and it will be a high paced game. It will turn into a game of who can make the most three pointers, which is good for the over.
Some trends to note. Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a straight up win. Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 overall.
This game is going to be a shootout.
Jimmy Boyd
Dodgers vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8
These two teams combined for a mere 3 runs in yesterday's 2-1 win for the Cardinals and I'm calling for another low-scoring contest in the series finale for both sides. It's a getaway game for both sides, as LA is headed to Milwaukee and St Louis is going to face their big rivals in the Cubs over the weekend.
Carlos Martinez quieted the Dodgers lineup yesterday and now LA must face the red-hot veteran ace Adam Wainwright, who has a sensational 0.44 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Wainwright's last start really speaks volumes to how locked in he is right now, as he allowed just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings in his last start at Coors Field. Dodger are countering with Brandon McCarthy, who has quietly gone 5-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 8 starts this season. Even in victory the Cardinals offense wasn't great and are still averaging just 2.4 runs/game over their last 7 contest.
Cal Sports
Rockies at Mariners
Play: Under 8.5
Seattle’s offense has hit .305 over the last 7 days but that is misleading because they had 28 hits in their 3 games at Colorado. The Mariners have still gone 1-6-1 O/U their last 8 games and are now back at home where they score 5 runs last night but only 8 runs in their 4 previous home games. Colorado is averaging 5 runs/game on the season but only 4 per game the last 7 and 3.5 per game in inter-league play.
Buster Sports
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Play: Diamondbacks -120
We are going with Arizona here as we have the best of the pitching matchup tonight and although Miami has started to play well we see the Diamondbacks putting a stop to their 4 game win streak. The starting pitchers for tonight's game are for the Diamondbacks RH Zach Greinke (6-3, 3.24 ERA) and he will face the Marlins LH Jeff Locke (2016: 9-8, 5.44 ERA) Grienke has not lost to Miami in his career and is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.24 against Miami. As for Locke he is coming off of the DL for his first start of the year but in his career he has been terrible when facing the Diamondbacks sporting a 7.25 ERA with a WHIP of 1.836. The Diamondbacks won a tough game in Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon winning in 15 innings after blowing two leads on the last out, one in the 9th and one in the 11th. We believe that kind of win will give the Diamondbacks the type of momentum to win the first game of this 4 game set.
Oskeim Sports
Minnesota at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles -110
Minnesota left-hander Adalberto Mejia is a glorified Triple-A arm who continues to implode in the Majors. The 23-year-old toes the rubber with a 4.64 ERA, 5.52 FIP and 5.01 SIERA in five starts this season, together with an alarming 5.06 BB/9 rate and a 1.69 HR/9 rate.
Mejia's two-seam fastball has generated very few swings and misses and his secondary pitches are far from being average. In fact, scouts have called his changeup a "batting practice" pitch that isn't "fooling anyone." In one road start this season, the southpaw allowed three runs (2 earned) and two walks in just 1 2/3 innings of work.
From a technical standpoint, Minnesota is a money-burning 0-4 in its last four games versus American League West opponents and 0-4 in its last four games overall, whereas the Angels are a profitable 4-0 in their last four tilts against American League Central foes, 6-1 in their last seven home games and 7-2 in their last nine home affairs versus left-handed starters.
Let's also note that the Twins are just 16-38 in their last 54 trips to Los Angeles. Minnesota's bullpen continues to implode in 2017, posting a 5.17 ERA and 1.48 WHIP overall, including a 10.55 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in its last seven games. In contrast, the Angels' relief staff enters tonight's game with a 3.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, including a 2.92 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last seven games.
Finally, Los Angeles applies to a very good 41-9 and 36-6 systems that invest on certain home favorites of -175 or less versus teams with a middling starting pitcher and a scuffling offense (batting .215 or worse L/5 games). At a bargain price, take the Los Angeles Angels as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick for Thursday and invest with confidence.
Carmine Bianco
Rockies at Mariners
Play: Over 8.5
We gave out Seattle here yesterday in what was a good pitching match up but one that favoured the Mariners along with the fact their bats are starting to come alive. Today's pitching matching pales by comparison and we can expect some runs today with Freeland (5-3, 3.59) and Gallardo (2-5, 5.76) on the mound. Play the Total here.
Jeff Benton
Thursday comp play is Boston over Baltimore as they start an important 4-game division set at Camden Yards.
The Orioles managed to take 2 of 3 off of division-leading New York, but they have still dropped 8 of their last 10 games overall.
The Red Sox meanwhile have finally started to play up to expectations, as the BoSox have captured 8 of their last 10 to climb over Baltimore in the A.L. East standings.
Boston has also won 7 of the last 9 series meetings played in Charm City!
Eduardo Rodriguez has been solid in his efforts this season, as he comes into this start at 3-0 his last 3 starts with a 2.70 ERA, and 4-1 overall on the year.
Wade Miley is 0-2 over his last 3 with an ERA over 4, and is just 1-3 on the year.
Boston to draw first blood.
4* BOSTON
Jack Brayman
The Seattle Mariners are going to finish off the Colorado Rockies, continuing a win streak while flexing offensive muscle.
After losing seven of eight, behind a sluggish offense we took advantage of, this team has scored 26 runs during its four-game win streak. One win was in Boston - a 5-0 shutout - and the last three nights came in Denver - a 6-5 win over the Rox, Tuesday night's 10-4 romp - and then last night's 5-0 win in Seattle.
Remember when I gave you the Red Sox Run Line and they won 6-0? The next day I laid off purposely, because of a continuing trend I've seen take place the first two months of the season. Of course, I won't reveal it, cause I'll need it throughout the season, but only suckers fell for the Red Sox on Sunday. I saw it coming, and now the Mariners are shining on offense.
During the team's 1-7 skid, Seattle scored nine runs. Again, we're talking about 26 runs in four nights, and now the team is back home.
Meanwhile, the Rockies have lost five of seven, scoring 10 runs in the five losses. Though they arguably boast the top hitting lineup in the league, they're going to struggle in this one.
Take the M's big here.
3* MARINERS
Rob Vinciletti
Arizona at Miami
Play: Under 8
This game fits a perfect totals system that dates tom 2004 and averages under 5 runs. Play the Under for road favorites like Arizona with a total of 8 or less that are off a road win vs an opponent off a home win that scored 10 or more runs. Miami is 6-0 under as a home dog off a home win scoring 5 or more runs. Arizona has played under in 18 of 25 on the road and 5 of 6 on Thursdays. In the series 5 of 7 have gone under in Miami. Greinke goes for Arizona and he has gone under in his last 3 road starts and 5 of 6 on the road in June. He has allowed 2 or less runs in his last 3 road starts vs the fish. Locke makes his first start of the year for Miami and he was solid with a 1.77 Era in 4 rehab starts.
Chip Chirimbes
Cavs at Warriors
Play: Cavs +7
The results of this series will change (the media's) perception of two of today's greats. The storyline will either put LeBron James with a win into and possibly beyond the status of Michael Jordan while a loss for the Warriors will for ever tarnish Kevin Durant as a player that isn't a winner. Golden State is undefeated (12-0) in the play offs sweeping four-game series with Portland, Utah and San Antonio and has had nine full days of rest while the Cavs are 12-1 in the playoffs losing just once at Boston after building a 21-point lead. Defense and the pace will be the key and I expect Cleveland to control both.
Wunderdog
Minnesota @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -115
The Minnesota Twins have been a surprise team in the early going at 26-23 on the season. The Twins lost 103 games last season, and the warts from a that are starting to show up. Minnesota has seen their pitching get destroyed in their last four games where they have allowed 48 runs or 12 runs a contest, and as they limp out to LA with their bullpen is is shambles. The Angels come in having worked their way to .500 on the season with a pair of wins in their last two games. That puts them in prime position for another knockout blow against the ailing Twins. Certain teams off a pair of wins to get to .500 are an amazing 102-36 in their last 138 tries.
Teddy Covers
Rockies vs. Mariners
Play: Rockies +115
The Colorado Rockies have been remarkably adept at avoiding extended losing streaks this season. The Rockies have matched their longest skid of the year, heading into their afternoon affair in Seattle today, dropping each of their last three games.
Following the Rockies lone previous three game skid this year – at home against Washington – they immediately responded with back-to-back wins as part of a 4-2 road trip. I’m expecting similar results this afternoon from a squad that has played .667 ball on the highway this season while cashing an impressive 20 different times already this season at an underdog price.
The Mariners scored exactly one run in five straight losses last week, including three consecutive home losses to the White Sox. They got shut out twice in Boston last weekend. Even though their bats have been more productive this week, Seattle is not a team that I trust to put crooked numbers up on the scoreboard on a regular basis.
The Mariners are 3-7 with Yovani Gallardo on the hill. Of their nine home losses this season, Gallardo has been on the mound for four of them. Two of their three wins for Gallardo came in games where Seattle scored 11 runs or more, which puts them at 1-7 with Gallardo when they don’t produce double digit runs. Gallardo is coming off his highest pitch count of the season. He’s been struggling with his command (five walks last time out) and with the gopher ball (multiple home runs allowed in each of his last two home starts).
The Rockies are 5-0 on the highway with rookie Kyle Freeland on the hill, with victories at the Dodgers, DBacks, Padres, Twins and Reds home fields. All five of those wins came with an underdog pricetag, just like the one we’re seeing today. Freeland has held three of those five opponents to a single run. Seattle has struggled mightily against lefties this season, ranked #14 out of 15 teams in the AL in OPS against southpaws and #12 in batting average against.
From a bullpen standpoint, neither team has any sort of a rest edge this evening. From an efficiency standpoint, the Rockies bullpen has an enormous edge in the latter stages. Colorado’s ratio of 21 saves to 3 blown saves and 3 losses is very different from Seattle’s ratio: 10 saves, 11 blown saves and 11 bullpen loses.
Eric Schroeder
The last time the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees got together, things were awfully different.
It was May 1, and while the Jays were looking to reverse their fortune after going 8-17 in April, the Yankees were 15-8, and on their way to a 21-9 start by May 8.
Now, though the Yankees remain atop the American League East, they've lost seven of their last 13 games and are mired in a 9-11 skid since May 8.
The Jays, meanwhile, went 18-10 in May and come into this series riding a three-game win streak. Toronto, which is always dangerous at home, has found a groove at the plate, having hit 48 home runs in May.
The Blue Jays are fifth in the A.L. East, 5.5 games behind the Yankees, and could find themselves extremely closer to first with a sweep of this series.
5* BLUE JAYS
Brad Wilton
Thursday comp play is the Cavs plus the points at the Warriors in Game One of this year's NBA Finals.
Both teams have had plenty of time off, as the Cavaliers have not played since last Thursday when the waltzed past Boston, while the Warriors have been off from live action since May 22nd.
That time off by Golden State I see as an issue, as the Warriors may be 12-0 straight up this postseason, but they have been slow to get started when playing the opening game of a series.
Need proof? Well, the Dubs could not cover in their opening round against Portland in Game One, and they followed with a pointspread failure in the semifinals in Game One against the Jazz.
In the conference finals, Golden State trailed San Antonio big before coming back for the outright, but failing the pointspread.
0-3 in Game One this postseason, and tonight they are laying a big number to a team that rattled off 3 in a row last year in this round to cop the NBA crown.
Cavs will be there plus the points on Thursday.
2* CLEVELAND