DAVE COKIN
YANKEES VS. TIGERS
PLAY:TIGERS F5 -105
First half or first five numbers don’t get posted till the morning, so I’m estimating the number on this game between the Yankees and Tigers. It figures to be right around pick ’em territory.
I’ll be looking to take the Tigers, but I want them only for the first half wager. If this is close toward the finish line, the vastly superior late inning Yankee bullpen is not one I want to mess around with, so this strictly a five-inning play for me.
The mound matchup is Michael Pineda vs. Matt Boyd. Pineda is interesting, in that some of his peripherals aren’t bad, and therefore some of his analytic numbers might indicate he’s more a victim of bad luck than anything else. Sorry, but I’ve been watching his games and this is one time where the metrics are off. Pineda has been pretty bad. Yeah, I know, his BABIP is insanely high, Pineda still owns an admirable BB/K ratio, so that 6.92 ERA is not really a good indicator. I get all that, and I normally subscribe to those theories. It’s entirely conceivable that there could be some progression due for Pineda. But until it starts to show, it’s either fade or stay away for me the Pineda pitches.
Matt Boyd is likely never going to be more than back of the rotation fodder. That might even be a generous assessment. But Ryan might have a chance to do reasonably well tonight as he takes on a Yankees entry that is doing very little with the lumber right now.
The Tigers have been feasting at home against opposing righties, and that doesn’t bode well for the struggling Pineda. Detroit also finally garnered a little something positive on a very bad road trip by finishing it off with a shutout win on Wednesday against the Angels. The Yankees are limping in after dropping three in a row to the division rival Blue Jays. Plus, the Pinstripes will be leaving right after this make up game as they open a weekend set at Baltimore on Friday night.
I’m certainly not wild about backing Boyd. But the enthusiasm level for playing against the Yankees and Pineda is more than enough of an offset. At roughly pick ’em I’m going to be taking the Tigers for a first half wager tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Brewers vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -123
The Phillies should find things much easier tonight against the Brewers than they did last night vs Washington. The Phillies are 5-1 as a home favorite off a home dog loss and home favorites since 2004 win at an 80% clip off a home dog loss where they scored 2 or less runs and are taking on a team off a home dog win like Milwaukee. The Brewers are 0-3 on the road off a home dog win and have Anderson on the mound. Anderson has an elevated 5.33 road Era and a 7.84 era vs the Phillies. Eickhoff for Philadelphia has a solid 2.18 home Era. Look for the Phillies to take the opener.
Marc Lawrence
Cincinnati at Colorado
Play: Colorado -183
Edges - Rockies: Eddie Butler 14 K’s and 4 BB’s last four starts. Reds: Alfredo Simon 1-5 team starts at night this season, and 1-3 away with 13.85 ERA and 2,85 WHIP away this season. With Simon 1-4 with and 8.52 ERA n his last five starts n this park, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Jim Feist
Mariners vs. Padres
Play: Over 7½
Seattle has a terrific offense, top 10 in baseball in runs scored and slugging, which has helped them with the best road mark in the game. The Over is 9-4-2 in the Mariners last 15 interleague games. They are also 13-3-2 over the total against a right-handed starter. Seattle goes with wacky Wade Miley (4.95 ERA), off a 6-5 defeat to a weak hitting Minnesota team. San Diego is 13-5 over the total against a left-handed starter. Starter Colin Rea (4.47 ERA) has struggled, off a 9-5 loss to the Dodgers in this same park. And the Over is 8-2 in Rea's last 10 home starts.
Larry Ness
Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins
Prediction: Miami Marlins
Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton returned on Wednesday after missing seven games with soreness in his right side from an outfield collision with Marcell Ozuna. He batted fifth for the first time this season but went 0 for 3 with two strikeouts and a walk, dropping his average to .210 on the season. Ozuna took Stanton's regular cleanup spot but struck out twice and is 0 for 9 in this series. Miami (28-25) has no HRs in the three games of this series so far but has won the last two, including 3-2 last night. Pittsburgh (29-23) has failed to score more than twice in FOUR of its last five games, losing each time.
Thursday’s pitching matchup will be Juan Nicasio (4-4, 4.79 ERA) vs Wei-Yin Chen (3-2, 4.37 ERA). Nicasio had a rough May, posting a 6.75 ERA in four starts, after finishing the month by allowing four runs on seven hits in just 4.2 innings at Texas this past Saturday. He didn’t have a have a quality start in four May outings and posted a 1.70 WHIP to go along with that 6.75 ERA. He has surrendered at least one HR in each of his four May starts, after yielding three in five April starts. Nicasio has made six career appearances against the Marlins but just two starts (team is 0-2 and Nicasio owns a 3.75 ERA in those starts). May has been Nicasio's worst month during his career (1-7 with a 7.55 ERA in 24 appearances) and while he’s happy to see June arrive, this road start hardly bodes well for a pitcher who is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in four away starts so far in 2016 (Pirates are 1-3).
Wei-Yin Chen struggled in May as well, pitching past the sixth inning only once in five starts while posting a 1.46 WHIP (had a 1.11 WHIP in April). Chen is trying to find some consistency as he makes his way through his first season in the National League. Chen is facing the Pirates for just the second time in his career (won the first one but owns a 5.89 ERA). Pittsburgh rolled to a 10-0 win in the opener but has since managed a total of three runs in two games. Miami is 5-4 in the last nine games and has allowed three or fewer runs in each of the five wins. Take the home team.
Will Rogers
Cleveland vs. Golden State
Pick: Over
The NBA Finals get underway Thursday, and we'll see a rematch of last year's Finals when the Warriors defeated the Cavs to win the Championship. Last year the Cavs were short-handed, with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving both sidelined due to injury. With Cleveland at full strength, we could see some higher scores than we saw in the Finals a year ago.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Three-Point Shooting - The Cavs were not a three-point shooting team during the regular season, but they've been launching a ton of three-point shots in the playoffs. They broke an NBA record for made three-pointers in their series versus Atlanta, and averaged over 40 attempted three-pointers per game against the Raptors. The Warriors live and die with their long range shooting, as evidenced by Klay Thompson's heroic performance with 11 made threes in Game 6.
2. Previous History - The Warriors failed to reach the total in five of seven games versus the Thunder, but the number in those games was an average of 10 points higher than the number for Game 1 versus the Cavs. The last time these teams met, the Warriors won 132-98 at Cleveland. The Cavs have gone over in eight of their last 11 road games.
3. X-Factor - LeBron James is coming off his highest scoring game of the playoffs, totaling 33 points in 41 minutes in Game 6 versus Toronto.
Art Aronson
Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Over
The visitors send Chase Anderson (2-6, 5.00 ERA) to the hill, he’s poised for a letdown after coming off his best start of the season, allowing one run off five hits over five innings in a victory over the soft-hitting Reds on Saturday. Anderson though has been consistently inconsistent this year and it was the first time that he’d given up less than three runs in start since his first outing back in early April. Note that Anderson has been particularly horrible in this spot all season, going 0-4 with a ballooned 5.33 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.07) who was most recently rocked for four earned runs over six innings in a 4-1 loss to the Cubs on Saturday. Eickhoff has shown flashes of brilliance this year, but clearly faces a difficult challenge this evening. Consider a second look at the OVER in this matchup.
Strike Point Sports
Miami (-120) over Pittsburgh
The Marlins had high expectations for Wei-Yin Chen after he had went 27-14 with an ERA just under 3.50 the past two years for the Orioles pitching in the American League East, but he hasn't gotten into a groove just yet. Chen is 3-2 with a 4.37 ERA through 10 starts so far this season, but the Marlins have won his last three starts at home. He has only made one start against the Pirates, beating them back in 2012, and he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Juan Nicasio will be on the bump for Pittsburgh and he has been brutal on the road this season, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in 4 starts. Nicasio has a career ERA over 4 against the Marlins through 6 appearances (2 starts) and Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton should be healthy and back in Miami's line up by Thursday. Miami has won five out of Chen's last seven starts, and I think they will find a way to win this contest as well.
Robert Ferringo
Boston / Baltimore Over 9.5
Boston has been on a major upswing on the diamond for the past several weeks and they have taken control of first place in the A.L. East. They have been pummeling people with their offense and they should have no problem tearing up Ubaldo Jimenez. He is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and has been for six years. I seriously have no idea how this guy still has a job. His last four starts have all gone 'over,' and he's given up 23 runs in his last 17 innings. That's sustained awfulness. Rick Porcello is on the mound for the Sox. Here is a guy that is clearly pitching over his head. He has had an ERA of at least 4.30 in five of the past six years. Yet right now he's at 3.68. He's gotten hit for at least four runs in two of his last three starts, and the cracks are showing. Expect another high-scoring shootout from these two teams on Friday and play this one 'over'.
Matt Fargo
Pirates vs. Marlins
Play: Pirates +116
After winning the opener of this series, the Pirates have dropped two straight games and will be going for the series split tonight. They are 2-4 on this roadtrip and now trail the Cubs by 7.05 games in the National League Central while the two-game under .500 trek has them at .500 overall on the highway. Miami has won five of its last eight games but the offense has managed only 17 runs over its last six games (2.8 rpg) so the Marlins have been fortunate to have good pitching back up the poor hitting. Wei-Yin Chen came in as a free agent from Baltimore and big things were expected but he has been pretty average. He has a 4.37 ERA through 10 starts and he has been especially bad at home, posting a 5.35 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in six starts. Going back, the Pirates are 9-3 in their last 12 road games against left-handed starters. The Pirates counter with Juan Nicasio who has been below average in his first season with Pittsburgh but has not been a disaster. He has not allowed more than four runs in any of his nine starts and he has a potent offense behind him that is hitting .280 which is second best in baseball.
Sleepyj
Arizona / Houston Over 7.5
I was waiting on this one to land on 7...Looks like it's hanging on for dear life at 7.5 though...I like the over here even at this number..Now both guys can show up in this game and we very well could land well under 7...My feeling is the way both guys have been getting hit up though lasts another start...Both teams have plenty of bats and power in the lineup..Plenty of guys as well to steal bases and put pressure on the pitcher...Astros win in a dramatic game yesterday and they seem to be on the better side of games the last 10 days...AZ has a few banged up players, but still playing quality ball..Keuchel has been rather blah this year and his pitching straight down the middle has gotten him in trouble..Plenty of pop on the D-Backs side to send it out of the park..Greinke has looked much better of the two, but he finds himself walking batters and having 1 bad inning per game..Perhaps the Astros apply some pressure here and get after him for a few innings...Both bullpens might be in play and they can give up a run or two..Over is the only way I would look in this one..Looks scary, but I feel it's the only wager we can make in this game.
Chris Jordan
I actually am not enjoying seeing Blair suffer the way he has, as he's a local product from Las Vegas, and thought he would have a better introduction to the big leagues. Such is not the case.
Understandably, Blair showed better fastball command when he returned from the minors, as he completed 5-2/3 innings against the Marlins on Saturday. But he's been an overall disappointment and now has to face a team that ranks ninth in the league in scoring runs on the road.
On the other end, there is Mad Bum, who just finished 4-0 with a 1.05 ERA in six May starts. Plus, he's traditionally done well in June, with an all-time 15-10 mark and 3.08 ERA in 28 career starts this month.
Take the Giants in a rout.
1* SAN FRANCISCO -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Pirates to manage the split in the closer of this four game set against the Marlins.
After winning 10-0 in the first meeting on Monday, the Bucs have dropped consecutive low-scoring contests to the Marlins.
Even with those back-to-back losses, the Pirates have still managed to win 9 of the last 12 series meetings versus the Marlins.
The pitching matchup of Juan Nicasio and Wei-Yin Chen shows pretty similar season numbers for the hurlers. Both have had their struggles of late and for the season, so I am not expecting one to dominate tonight.
Call this one a "gut feeling", but I see Pittsburgh leaving town with the 2-2 split.
Take the Pirates.
2* PITTSBURGH
Brad Wilton
My Thursday comp play is the play the Yankees-Tigers make-up game to go Over the total.
I am well aware of the Yankees struggles at the dish of late - just 5 runs scored in their last 4 games, ALL 4 of those games Under the total! - but the fact that Michael Pineda is on the mound is the main reason for this Over release.
Pineda has been absolute garbage in the rotation for Joe Girardi, as he is the owner of a 6.92 season ERA, and he is fresh off allowing 6 runs in under 4 innings of work in his last outing.
He has made 10 starts this season with the Over going 6-2-2.
Matt Boyd will make just his second start of the season after allowing 3 runs over 5 innings in a 12-3 loss to Oakland his last time on the mound.
Detroit is likely to score 7 or 8 runs tonight which makes playing Over the total pretty much a no-brainer.
Yankees-Tigers Over on Thursday night.
5* N.Y. YANKEES-DETROIT OVER
BUSTER SPORTS
Boston at Baltimore
Play: Over 9.5
Both these pitchers haven't had a great start to the 2016 season and Jimenez could actually be in jeopardy of losing his spot in the starting rotation soon. Jimenez has been just a mess this year but his last 3 starts have been horrendous. He has an ERA of 11.57 and a WHIP of 2.399 in his last 3 starts. When Jimenez starts against the Red Sox he has a ERA of 7.00 and a WHIP of 1.777. All great signs for lots of runs. As for Porcello he has been better but against the Orioles he has ERA of 5.45 and a WHIP of 1.493. In his last start in Baltimore, Porcello gave up 5 runs in a little over 5 innings pitched. With both teams combining for 9 pitchers in Baltimore's 13-9 win yesterday look for more of the same tonight.