SPORTS WAGERS
HOUSTON -1½ +163
The Astros (Keuchel) opened as a -155 to -160 favorite at most places over (Greinke). When something looks unusual it raises red flags and the opening number for this game is highly unusual. The oddsmakers make mistakes from time to time with unfamiliar pitchers but they don’t err when marquee pitchers are on the hill. Well, this game features not one, but two marquee names. The oddsmakers did not overlook this game or make a mistake either.
You would have to go way back in the archives to when Zack Greinke was a young pitcher with a horrible Kansas City team to find the last time he was taking back a price like this. Greinke was the most sought after free-agent pitcher this past winter, he has pedigree, skills and is widely considered one of the best in the business. Greinke opened as a +155 underdog against a Houston team that is gaining steam but that has struck out a ton this year. Everyone knows Greinke is a strikeout guy. It gets better…..
Dallas Keuchel is having a rough year with skills that are far off last year's Cy Young Award-winning form. A 59% strand rate in May has been part of the culprit but his velocity is down and his control has been awful. Keuchel has five quality starts in 11 games and brings a 5.58 ERA into this one. Arizona has hit well on the road, where their .776 OPS ranks 4th in the NL and they boast the NL's third best OPS against LHP at .802. If we’re wrong about this, so be it but we are almost 100% sure that the oddsmakers have made Greinke as appetizing as they possibly can in order to attract Arizona money. That is the wrong side because the line says so. The oddsmakers got their wish, as Arizona predictably has taken money all morning. Remember, the Astronauts opened as a -160 favorite against Zack Greinke and the oddmakers absolutely knew that if they posted THAT number, the house would be pounded with Diamondbacks money. It was, and the oddsmakers got their wish. This is strictly a play based on the ourtrageous price that the oddsmakers set against Greinke.
Los Angeles +136 over CHICAGO
Julio Urias made his highly anticipated MLB debut last week in New York against Jacob deGrom. deGrom was a -193 favorite yesterday against the White Sox but against Urias last week, in Queens no less, deGrom closed as a -106 favorite. The market could not get enough of this kid in New York but today they can’t fade him fast enough after he lasted just 2.2 innings against the Mets. Just to recap for a second, Urias was a pick-em six days ago in New York against deGrom and today he’s taking back a sweet tag against Kyle Hendricks. That is true value. You can read more about Urias in our call-up section. He has a great pedigree and could easily dominate today after getting his first start out of the way. You never really know how a youngster is going to do in his first taste of MLB, but regardless of that, Urias has big time talent worth backing.
The Cubbies won again yesterday to run their record to 36-15. They had three hits. Over their past 20 games, Chicago is hitting .235, which puts them on par with the Phillies, Twins, Reds, Brewers, Braves, Yanks and Padres. The difference is that those other teams lose almost every day while the Cubbies win almost every day. The point is that the Cubs are riding a run of good luck to an extreme level. Every bounce has fallen their way this season but it’s completely unsustainable so a correction to their win % is forthcoming. Chicago is a solid team with great pitching but Cleveland has great pitching too, it hits for a much higher average than the Cubs and it is just three games over .500. Same goes for the Nationals and they’re playing .611 ball.
Armed with an 87 mph four-seam fastball and just one pitch that generates a swing and miss rate better than 7% (change: 23%), Kyle Hendricks has taken his game to another level early in 2016, sporting a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through 55 innings. Say what? Unless he finds another swing-and-miss pitch, there is nothing to suggest any impending growth for Hendricks. Hendricks is never going to wow with lofty strikeout totals, but he knows his limitations and plays to his strengths. He relies on command and his ability to keep the ball on the ground. Hendricks is decent enough but in no way is he a 2.93 ERA pitcher. He’s consistent and he’s reliable but he’s going to be hit hard in a bunch of games this year and we’re hoping that this is one of those. Regardless of what occurs in this one game, the value is absolutely on the Dodgers.
Kansas City +147 over CLEVELAND
After a shaky start, K.C. has now reeled off six in a row and into first place in the AL Central. They’ll face a tough Carlos Carrasco here but that’s fine, as K.C. has a knack for thriving against the best pitchers the game has to offer. Besides that, Carrasco comes of the DL to make his first start since April 24. In his first start of the year, Carrasco lasted just five innings and surrendered seven hits and four runs so perhaps he needs a game or two after a long layoff to get acclimated again. Even with their strong rotation, the Indians struggle to win games. Furthermore, their bullpen has been giving up runs in droves as of late so there is that too.
2016 has been a rollercoaster campaign for Yordano Ventura, who has posted a 5.17 ERA through 10 starts. He did the exact same thing last year when he posted a 4.68 ERA through his first 12 starts, which led to a July demotion. However, Ventura recovered down the stretch with a 3.66 ERA and 102 K's over 96 second half innings. Ventura is just 25 years old and has all the skills in the world to break through. His biggest problem his entire career has been control or lack thereof. When he’s throwing strikes, he’s as tough as shoe leather and when he’s not, he gets into trouble. Ventura did not walk a batter in his last start over seven innings. Three starts ago, he walked one batter in 6 innings against Boston. In between those, Ventura walked four batters in six innings against the White Sox. He’s capable, he’s hard working and he’s a fierce competitor. Finally, the Indians lose more than the Royals and it’s been that way for three years. In other words, Cleveland cannot be trusted spotting prices like this.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland (1st Q) +153
The Warriors are a 2-point favorite to win the first quarter. That’s one shot or one bucket. Frankly, that’s all we need to know to make this true value wager. When OKC went into Golden State for Game 7, the Warriors were a 6½-point favorite for the full game but just a 2½-point favorite in the first quarter. OKC was taking back +170 in the first quarter and won it easily. No team wants to fall behind by a crooked number early in games. Cleveland is 100% determined to get off to a good start in this series but that’s a story for another time. We are committed to play the dog on the money in the first quarter of every game in this series because of the great value in doing so. It just makes sense because the point spread line suggests that the first quarter is basically a 50/50 proposition.
Ray Monohan
Mariners vs. Padres
Play: Mariners -130
The Mariners and Padres continue conclude their 4 game home and home and it's Seattle who has some value here. Wade Miley takes the hill and he has really turned his season around. After a sluggish start, Miley has won his last 5 decisions, to push his record to 5-2 on the season.
San Diego sends out Colin Rea, who has already been demoted to Triple A once this season. Rea hasn't given the Padres any length in his starts and has struggled a lot with his command.
Some trends to consider. Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague games.
This is a nice bounce back spot for the Mariners here. They were routed on Wednesday, but were in a tough spot mentally as their ace Felix Hernandez went on the DL prior to the game. Look for them to get to Rea early here in this one.
Brandon Lee
Phillies -110
Philadelphia comes into this contest having lost 6 straight, as they have been swept in back-to-back 3-game series against two of the top teams in the Cubs and Nationals. Milwaukee is the perfect opponent for the Phillies to get back on track, especially at home. Philadelphia will send out Jerad Eickhoff, who has pitched extremely well at home, posting a 2.18 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 5 home starts. Brewers will send out Chase Anderson, who is 0-4 with a 5.33 ERA in 5 road starts. Phillies are 35-15 in their last 50 home games after two straight losses by 4 or more runs.
Jimmy Boyd
Red Sox/Orioles Over 9½
These two teams lit up the scoreboard last night with 22 runs in the Orioles' 13-9 win. I look for more offensive fireworks to be on display in the series finale tonight, as the starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired.
Boston will send out Rick Porcello, who is trending in the wrong direction after a great start to the year. Porcello has a 5.19 ERA and 1.384 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's hasn't had much luck of late against the Orioles, giving up 17 runs on 28 hits in his last 3 starts against them. Baltimore counters with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 6.36 ERA and 1.872 WHIP in 10 starts overall and is 2-6 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.777 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Red Sox.
OVER is 11-3 in Boston's 14 games this season with a total of 9 or 9.5 and 9-2 as a favorite of -125 to -175. OVER is also 11-2 in the Orioles last 13 with a total of 9 or 9.5 and 12-3 in their last 15 after a game with a combined score of 15 or more runs.
Harry Bondi
MINNESOTA +105 over Tampa Bay
The Rays are really scuffling right now. After getting swept in KC, the team has now dropped four in a row and 10 out of 12, so we see no reason not to grab the home dog here, especially since TB starter Matt Moore has been dreadful away from home, posting a 6.60 ERA. The Twins will also be better off here in the late innings since their bullpen has a 2.87 ERA at home this season, compare to the Rays relievers, who have combined for an ERA over 4.00.
Vegas Butcher
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 (1st Half)
Last year, LeBron and a bunch of "no-names", had a 2-1 series lead against the mighty Warriors in the Finals, before wilting away in the final 3 games as fatigue became a real issue. Let's take a look at how those games ended up with half-time scores included:
Game 1: GSW 108-100 OT (CLE +3 HT)
Game 2: CLE 95-93 OT (CLE +2 HT)
Game 3: CLE 96-91 (CLE +7 HT)
Game 4: GSW 103-82 (GSW +12 HT)
Game 5: GSW 104-91 (GSW +1 HT)
Game 6: GSW 105-97 (GSW +2 HT)
The important thing to note is look how close 5 of the 6 games of the series were at halftime with Cleveland being either up or within a few points in all 5 of those games. It's not a fluke either, but an indication of LeBron's ability to carry a team without any help. Of course in the 2nd halves of last few games of the series things have unraveled as fatigue for LeBron was a real issue and of course Iguodala's defense was a factor as well.
So why will things be different this year? For one, LeBron has both Irving and Love fully healthy going into the Finals. That cannot be overstated, as people sometimes forget that Cleveland has their own version of the big-3. In addition, LeBron is as rested and as healthy as he's been in the last few years going into the final series of the season. The guy has a 34 PER in the playoffs, which is an insane number. Curry is 3rd with 24 PER (Wesbrook was 2nd with 25). I know the Warriors are 'better' than they were last year, but so is Cleveland, even more so. Last season was LeBron's first with the Cavs, and it takes time to jell with teammates. Remember, besides Irving and Love being out for majority of the Finals, LeBron was playing with guys like Mozgov, JR Smith, and Shumpert, players acquired during the season. He didn't even have a training camp with those guys last year. Now with some continuity in place, and of course a full year of seasoning, this Cavs team is way better. They're also deeper, an advantage that Golden State typically has over its opponents. Cavs feature guys like Frye, Jefferson, Dellavedova, Mozgov, and Shumpert on their bench. This will give Cleveland an ability to mix and match lineups, to try and counter the Warriors' diverse group.
Statistically, Cleveland's biggest advantage is their rebounding prowess, ranking as the 3rd best rebounding team in the league with a RBD-% of 51.9%. The #1 rebounding team was OKC this season, with a 53.7% mark. The Thunder owned Golden State on the boards in their 7-game series, getting a ton of secondary chances and open looks off the offensive boards. OKC didn't capitalize of course and lost in 7 but with the Cavs it could be a much different story. It's important to note that OKC only had 1 good 3PT shooter on the court most of the time - Durant 39% 3PT rate this year. Besides him they had guys like Westbrook 29.6%, Ibaka 32.6%, Roberson 31.1%. Waiters is a career 33% shooter though he did shot it at 35.8% this season. My point here is that even though OKC dominated the offensive boards, they didn't have the perimeter shooters to take advantage of it. And it didn't help that Durant shot 28.2% from the 3PT line in the post-season.
With the Cavs, we should see a much different outcome when they get secondary chances. With LeBron surrounded by dynamic shooters like JR Smith, Love, Irving, Frye, and Dellavedova, offensive rebounds could turn into easy points very quickly. The Warriors had a very difficult time rebounding the ball against OKC, and Tristan Thompson is just as a beast on the offensive glass as Adams is. I think this could be a very strong edge in Cleveland's favor.
Finally, I think 'rest' is a factor for tonight's contest as well. While Cleveland had 5 days off to rest and prepare, the Warriors have had only 2 and coming off a grueling 7-game series against OKC, I'd expect a slow start out of them tonight. Remember, against Thunder, Golden State was very prone to slow starts in the first halves as the OKC-series went on, trailing at half-time in 4 of the last 5 games. LeBron is going to be treating this Finals as the most important of his career, a chance to show the world that he truly IS the best player in the league, capable of unseating the BEST team in the NBA. Last year LeBron said during the playoffs that he is the best player on the planet. He played like it. This year though, he has the team around him to actually win it all. I think we'll see a very strong effort out of the Cavs tonight, and I love their chance of pulling an upset in game 1.
Wunderdog
Arizona @ Houston
Pick: Houston -133
Zack Greinke has been somewhat of a disappointment after his big free agent signing by Arizona as he is 6-3 but with a 4.71 ERA. The right-hander won his last start 8-7 over San Diego, but he allowed four runs and six hits in six innings while striking out only two batters. Houston is surging after a terrible start, winning five in a row and eight of its last nine games and the Astros go for the sweep of the Diamondbacks today. Arizona has lost seven of its last nine contests while giving up an average of 7.3 runs per game. Dallas Keuchel is coming off a 4-2 win at the Angels when he allowed just two runs and three hits and no walks in seven innings. Keuchel still is trying to get back on track and he has a good opportunity against the Diamondbacks hitters, who are hitting just .136 against him. Play the Astros to extend their winning streak.
Jim Feist
Cavs at Warriors
Play: Cavs +6
Golden State is off a wild 7-game series with Oklahoma City, rallying from a 3-1 deficit, the first team to do that in the Conference Finals since 1981. Now it's a quick turnaround to face the talented and rested Cavaliers. Cleveland was without power forward Kevin Love (shoulder) for all of last season's championship series, lost point guard Kyrie Irving (kneecap) in the opener, but now the Big 3 are together. Irving is averaging 24.3 points and has topped 20 points in 12 of Cleveland's 14 postseason games. The Cavaliers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. And the Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference.
Ian Cameron
Cincinnati at Colorado
Play: Over 12
This series has featured a combined 49 runs the first three games which averages out to 16.3 runs. That type of offensive production should continue with to very hittable starting pitchers. Cincinnati's Alfredo Simon remains a disaster and has been one of my strongest "bet against" pitching targets this season. He has a brutal 9.60 ERA and an even worse 14.79 ERA in three road starts allowing 25 runs on 30 hits in 14 innings of work -- as well as more walks than strikeouts. Simon was hammered in his one and only previous start at Coors Field in 2014 allowing 7 runs on 10 hits in 5 innings. He's pitched no more than 6 innings in each of his last four starts which is bad news with a beleaguered and brutal Reds bullpen (still last in MLB in ERA) waiting in the wings behind him. On the flip side, Eddie Butler is on the mound for Colorado and he is just as dicey. Butler has a 6.57 ERA in Colorado allowing 9 runs on 12 hits in just 12.1 innings. He too has not gotten past the 6th inning this season and the Rockies bullpen is not necessarily adept at shutting down teams either (25th in ERA). I expect plenty of runs early and late in this game. This is the highest total of the MLB season but there's a reason: play it over with confidence.
Vegas Butcher
Philadelphia Phillies -110
Eickhoff’s e-ERA (expected ERA) of 3.8 is significantly lower than Anderson’s 4.6 mark. When you consider that Anderson has a 5.3 mark on the road and Eickhoff is at 2.2 one at home, this discrepancy is even greater. My model has this one at -125 Phillies and I’ll grab the value here.
Cleveland Indians -155
Carrasco is back tonight and he should dominate this weakened KC lineup. On the other side, Ventura is my 152nd ranked starter with an e-ERA of 5.6. The discrepancy between the two is huge, and I believe Cleveland is undervalued at this price.
Tampa Bay Rays -116
Without Sano in the lineup, this Twins team really lacks any punch. They rank 25th offensively and 21st in ISO. By comparison Tampa is 4th overall offensively and 2nd in ISO. Hughes is making a spot start after being moved into a reliever role, which tells you all you need to know about his performance this season.
Bruce Marshall
Pittsburgh at Miami
Pick: Miami
Juan Nicasio appears ready to get bumped from the Pirates' rotation unless he can turn around recent form. And speaking of recent form, the Bucs offense has not been very good in that regard after scoring just three runs in losing efforts the past two days in Miami. As for Nicasio, he's allowed 15 runs and 28 hits (6 of those being homers) over 20 innings in his last four starts (6.75 ERA), while the Marlins have won five of the last seven starts made by Wei-Yin Chen.
Jack Jones
Red Sox/Orioles Over 9.5
Look for some offensive fireworks tonight between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles. Both bullpens are certainly taxed after a 22-run outburst last night, and the starting pitchers in tonight's matchup aren't likely to go deep into this one, either.
Rick Porcello has been better this season with a 3.68 ERA in 10 starts. But he sports a 5.19 ERA in his last three and a 4.35 ERA in five road starts. Plus, Porcello hates facing the Orioles, going 3-7 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 12 career starts against them. He has given up 17 earned runs over 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against Baltimore.
Ubaldo Jimenez has been nothing short of awful this season for the Orioles. He's 2-6 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.872 WHIP in 10 starts, including 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA and 2.399 WHIP in his last three. Jimenez is also 2-6 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.777 WHIP in 13 career starts against Boston.
Boston is 11-2 OVER (+9.5 Units) when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. Baltimore is 12-3 OVER (+9.1 Units) after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last two seasons. The OVER is 8-1-1 in Red Sox last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The OVER is 4-0 in Jimenez's last four starts.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers +107
The New York Yankees have no business being favored on the road over the Detroit Tigers today. The Yankees have lost 6 of their last 8 overall and now they'll be throwing one of their worst starters. Michael Pineda is 2-6 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in 10 starts this year, including 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in his last 3. Pineda is also 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts vs. Detroit. Matt Boyd is no superstar, but he held his own in his first start this season in allowing 3 runs and 6 base runners in 5 innings against the A's on May 28. He is a lefty, and the Yankees are hitting just .229 and scoring 3.1 runs per game against Southpaws this season. The Yankees are 2-7 in Pineda's last 9 starts. The Tigers are 4-1 in Boyd's last 5 home starts.
Bruce Marshall
Colorado -1.5 +109
The Reds got the win on Wednesday but we do not expect Cincy to win this midweek set at Coors Field. Especially with Alfredo Simon on the mound for Thursday night. With a dreadful 9.60 ERA, Simon is in the rotation only because the Reds have so few other options. Rocks starter Eddie Butler figures to have plenty of run support tonight.