Free Picks for Thursday, March 23rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Doc's Sports
West Virginia vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -3
Gonzaga has yet to play a complete game in the NCAA Tournament this season and I believe they are due for one on Thursday. Gonzaga has a great chance to make the Final Four this year and get Coach Mark Few off the list of best coaches never to reach the pinnacle. West Virginia is coming off an impressive win over Notre Dame, but the Irish do not have the bodies that Gonzaga does to play physical. The Mountaineers are very susceptible to the officials and if they call it tight that will greatly affect them on both sides of the court. West Virginia is 1-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog. Gonzaga is 20-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record.
Raphael Esparza
Gonzaga +120 To Win West Region
Last week I won my free play futures pick on Gonzaga to win more games than Villanova in the NCAA Tournament. Now I am going to go back to Gonzaga for another plus-money prop or futures pick. I think that Gonzaga can win two more games and make it to the Final Four. They are taking on West Virginia in the Sweet 16 and I think that the Bulldogs will be too much for the Mountaineers in that one. Then Gonzaga will likely have a rematch with Arizona in the regional finals. Gonzaga already beat Arizona once this year and they really dominated that game more than the final score showed. I think that Gonzaga would do the same if they matched up with them again. This Bulldogs team has been underrated and undervalued all season long. I think that they will win two more games and get Mark Few to the Final four for the first time.
Mike Rose
West Virginia at Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -3
If the Mountaineers continue to hit 50 percent from the floor and force numerous turnovers against all opposition, there might not be another team remaining in this tournament that can oust Huggy Bear’s troops. That said, I believe WVU just put forth its finest effort of the season after taking the Irish down 83-71 in a wire-to-wire job. Now out on the left coast against a Zags team that survived and failed to impress the first week of the tourney, I thoroughly expect Few’s kids to serve the Mounty’s up a fatty piece of humble pie.
Like ND, Gonzaga does a solid job of protecting its possession of the basketball. Notre Dame had issues with Press Virginia early on, but turned it around in the second half. Unlike the Irish, the Zags play an extremely stingy form of defense that will test WVU’s inconsistent shooting from the field. While Gonzaga’s overall stats are skewed from running roughshod upon the weaker WCC, this just isn’t a good matchup for West Virginia so far from home. Look for the Zags to pull away late and seal the deal from the charity stripe where they also own a major advantage over the Mountaineers.
Buster Sports
Michigan at Oregon
Play: Under 147.5
Two teams that like to score a lot of points play each other tonight which we believe is the reason for the high total. With all the scoring what is missed is the fact that these teams also can play some great defense. These two clubs are both in the top 50 in Total Defense as Oregon is 36th and Michigan 45th. Oregon will want to stop what has been one of Michigan's strengths in their Cinderella run to the Tourney and this extended run in the BIG DANCE. That is their 3 point shooting. Oregon might just be able to do that as they rank 22nd in the nation in 3 point shooting D. They held Rhode Island to 27% in their last game and they will rely on this heavily in the battle with Michigan. Both teams have shot over 50% from the field so far in the tourney and now moving to a new venue that stat will change for both clubs as we see the percentages coming down tonight. We really think with the time that both coaches have to devise a game plan, those game plans will rely on the defensive side of the ball. The public are on the OVER here as there are many trends shooting it in that direction. The Total opened at 146 and at the time of this writing it is already at 147 1/2. We believe come game time it will be pushed even higher. Since all the trends do have this game OVER, this is the only reason we have this as a free play instead of a premium pick tonight. Many times will are the contrarian and we are again tonight and will play the UNDER.
The Prez
Michigan at Oregon
Play: Michigan -1
Since College Basketball Conference play began after the Christmas holiday I have been critical of the Big 10 but as league play came to a close I was complimentary and even excited about the play of the Michigan Wolverines. The Michigan Wolverines and the Oregon Ducks tangle in the early Thursday night Sweet 16 event at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, a Midwest Regional affair, scheduled to tip at 7:09 p.m. ET in Kansas City, Missouri.
Michigan has done more in the second half of conference play than any team in college basketball. Not only did they avoid a ridiculously treacherous trip from Ann Arbor to Washington for the conference tourney, one in which an emergency landing of their plane. The Wolverines went on to win the league tournament and two wins in Indianapolis this past weekend, versus a good Oklahoma State Cowboys squad but a physical Louisville Cardinals team.
The growth of the young Wolverines has been exponential since February. Frontcourt starter Moritz Wagner scored a career high 26 points to lead the Wolverines past Louisville and D.J. Wilson has been nothing short of special since the postseason began. Wilson scored 17 points and hit huge free throws in the final minute of the win over the Cards. Guard play is critical to March success and Michigan floor general Derrick Walton Jr. is a matchup problem for the Oregon Ducks on Thursday night.
One can't completely dismiss the play of the Oregon Ducks in the round of 32 when they mounted a second half comeback to defeat a talented Rhode Island side in Sacramento. The longer teams progress in the "Dance" the more the second rotation becomes important. The loss of key 6-10 center Chris Boucher will begin to wear on Oregon and their second teamers. While college basketball pundits want to assure Pac-12 faithful that Dana Altman can pick up part of Boucher’s minutes with backup 6-11 sophomore Kavell Bigby-Williams, it simply isn't true, not completely. Replacing Boucher minute for minute with either Bigby-Williams and Jordan Bell isn't an equal trade.
Expect to see the Michigan coaching staff attack Oregon's current leader and most important piece to their offense, Dillon Brooks, not only attempting to get in his head but to garner cheap fouls on Thursday night.
Altman and his staff will be more concerned with using Bigby-Williams and Bell to contain the Wolverines Mo Wagner in this Sweet 16 event and while Oregon works on finding the right combination of players, without Boucher, against the athletic Michigan rotations, they fall behind without the wherewithal to play catch-up and fail to advance to the Elite Eight event in Kansas City on Saturday night.
Dave Cokin
Winnipeg +135
Winnipeg is on a three-game winning streak for just the second time all season. But their current form has little to do with this opinion. Although they're still technically alive for a wild card playoff spot, the reality is the Kings are close to dead in the water at this point. Los Angeles failed to take advantage of a lengthy home stand, garnering only nine of a possible 14 points. They then hit the road and lost at both Calgary and Edmonton. The Kings are still saying all the right things. But if you watch them play, LA looks like an old team with tired legs and their offense right now is simply not producing. I would rate this game a tossup and I just can't justify the Kings being priced this high. Value call on the Jets at a nice price.
Rob Vinciletti
Raptors vs. Heat
Play: Heat -4½
The Heat are hot covering 9 of 11 this month and 9 straight vs winning teams. The Raptors are 1-6 ats off a win of late and 1-7 ats vs South East division teams. Heading to the database we see that rested home favorites cover over 80% long term off a home favored win and cover as a 10+ point favorite if they scored 100 or more and their opponent comes in off a home game where they scored 120 or more like Toronto. The Host has covered 6 straight in this series and the winning team is 16-1 ats. Make it Miami tonight.
Sean Murphy
Michigan vs. Oregon
Play: Michigan -1
The Wolverines were my sleeper pick to win the tournament before it tipped off so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I’m backing them against Oregon in the Sweet 16 on Thursday.
The Wolverines have certainly been tested. They survived a scare against Oklahoma State in the opening round before fending off Louisville on Sunday. I believe the fact that they’re battle-tested certainly helps their cause against Oregon on Thursday.
The Ducks escaped with a win over Rhode Island in the second round, despite trailing for much of the second half. Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey came up big in the final minutes of that one, but I believe they’ll face a little more resistance against the Wolverines.
I simply feel that this is the game where the Ducks lack of depth with Chris Boucher sidelined costs them and believe the oddsmakers have Big Blue favored for a reason despite the seeding.
Jim Feist
Knicks vs. Blazers
Play: Over 218.5
New York doesn't cut it on defense, #25 in the NBA in points allowed. The Knicks are 10-2 over the total playing on no days rest, plus 5-2 over against the Western Conference. Portland is not about defense, either, #26 in the NBA in points allowed. Portland is on a 9-4 run over the total and will run right at the road weary visitors.
Scott Rickenbach
Xavier vs. Arizona
Play: Xavier +7½
Arizona getting a lot of respect from the odds makers here but I look for the "revenge minded nothing to lose" Musketeers to give them a tremendous battle here. Xavier lost to the Wildcats two years ago in a similar spot in the Big Dance and they'll be seeking payback tonight and certainly have been a dangerous team in tournament settings. In fact, the Musketeers are 18-6 ATS in all tournament games the last 3 seasons combined. Also, Xavier is a long-term 24-9 ATS in NCAA tournament games. Arizona is currently on a red-hot ATS run but they are 0-3 ATS against Big East teams the past 3 seasons. Also, the Wildcats are still on a 2-4 ATS run in NCAA Tourney games the last 3 seasons combined. The Musketeers are on a red hot ATS run and should make it 7 in a row here. They've played a slightly tougher schedule than Arizona on the season and they also faced tougher competition here in the Big Dance to reach this point. The battle-hardened Musketeers benefit from that right here, right now!
Ray Monohan
Clippers vs. Mavericks
Play: Clippers -4
The Clippers are finally figuring things out and have some value here on Thursday. The Clippers have won 3 straight games, while averaging wins by 21 points in that span.
They come in after a 133 point performance against the Lakers. As for the Mavs, they were exposed once again when it comes to taking on good teams.
Dallas was knocked around by the Warriors and this once again is just not a good matchup for them.
Some trends to note. Mavericks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games. Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
This is a spot for Los Angeles. The Mavericks aren't a good team and they struggle against top competition.
Mike Lundin
Canucks vs. Blues
Play: Under 5½
The St. Louis Blues are going for their fourth straight win and ninth in 11 games when they host the Vancouver Canucks Thursday night. The Nucks had lost six straight with just a total of nine goal scored prior to a 5-4 OT win at Chicago on Tuesday, and I think goals will come at a premium for the Nucks again tonight after that rare goal explosion.
The Blues have played terrific defense lately and the under is 10-1-2 in their last 13 games playing on one days rest, which they are here after a 4-2 win at Colorado on Tuesday.
We can also note that the Under is 6-1-3 in the last 10 meetings at Scottrade Center and 28-13-10 in the last 51 meetings overall.
Chip Chirimbes
Xavier vs. Arizona
Play: Arizona -7½
Xavier has upset Maryland and Florida State and now must face Arizona the West's No. 2 seed. Arizona has a huge front court with 7-0 Dusan Ristic and 6-11 Chance Comanche who will dominate the boards and guard the rim. The Wildcats are 11-0 straight-up against sub .750 opponents and 6-1 ATS when laying less then 10-points.
Rob Vinciletti
Raptors vs. Heat
Play: Heat -4½
The Heat are hot covering 9 of 11 this month and 9 straight vs winning teams. The Raptors are 1-6 ats off a win of late and 1-7 ats vs South East division teams. Heading to the database we see that rested home favorites cover over 80% long term off a home favored win and cover as a 10+ point favorite if they scored 100 or more and their opponent comes in off a home game where they scored 120 or more like Toronto. The Host has covered 6 straight in this series and the winning team is 16-1 ats. Make it Miami tonight.