Brad Diamond
Michigan vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon +1½
Taking upstart Ducks in another major tourney thriller over a Michigan club that could be a little spent after a run of seven straight wins, including Oklahoma State and Louisville. For Oregon this encounter has added importance since Michigan won at Oregon in 2014. This should be a game about pace, and the unit that wins TOP will survive. With Michigan 1-3-1 ATS vs. PAC-12, and Oregon 5-1 ATS as an NCAA underdog.
Dustin Hawkins
Suns vs. Nets
Play: Nets -4
Play Against a road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Phoenix) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more. (63-29 since 1996.)(68.5%). Brooklyn is 32-16 ATS against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
Info Plays
Clippers vs. Mavericks
Play: Under 206½
I have a couple of systems supporting our pick. Play the under when one of the teams is a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games. This system is 55-23 (70.5%) since 1996. Play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 when one of the teams is after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more. This system is 75-36 (67.6%) over the last 5 seasons.
Power Sports
Toronto vs. Miami
Pick: Toronto
I've previously made the case that the Raptors have become undervalued in the wake of the Kyle Lowry injury. The numbers bear this out. They own the best net efficiency rating in the East and are tied w/ Cleveland for the best point differential. While they may have failed to cover Tuesday night against Chicago, I was nevertheless impressed by the way they came from behind to take the game in overtime. They've now won three straight and four of their last five. Though the opponent tonight is hot (pun intended!), my recommendation is to take the points here.
Over the last 29 games, Miami is an incredible 23-6 SU and 24-5 ATS! That includes a win here at home over Toronto two weeks ago, 104-89 as six-point chalk. It may seem odd to you that the line for the rematch is a bit lower, but Toronto was in the second game of a back to back the last time. I can't see the Raptors shooting any worse here than they did back on 3.11 as they finished that game at just 37.5% from the field, including 2 of 15 from three-point range.
There will be some key absences on both sides tonight. Obviously, we know Lowry is out for the Raptors. So too is Serge Ibaka, who's suspended for getting into a fight in the last game. But Miami will be w/o Dion Waiters and Hassan Whitside and I feel that matters more. The Heat are just 2-3 SU w/o Whiteside in the lineup this season. I just feel that Miami has to cool down eventually (again, pun intended!) as the oddsmakers are bound to catch up with them.
Larry Ness
Memphis vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio -8
The 40-31 Memphis Grizzlies are one game back of the OKC Thunder for the West's No. 6 seed and have 11 games remaining to catch them. Meanwhile, the 54-16 SA Spurs find themselves 2 1/2 games back of the league-best Warriors (57-14) The Spurs have 12 games remaining (Warriors have seven) but with seven of their next eight at home, this gives the Spurs one last chance to possibly catch Golden State for the West's top seed. San Antonio has already clinched its season series with Golden St, so a tie equals a win.
The Grizzlies saw their four-game winning streak come to an end their last time out, losing 95-82 on Tuesday at New Orleans. It really was an 'ugly' effort, as the Grizz scored just 82 points on 40.5% shooting, after averaging 104.5 points during the team's four-game winning streak. As head coach David Fizdale told reporters after the game, "Our three big guns didn't have it for whatever reason," Memphis head coach David Fizdale told reporters. "We can't win games with our big three down like that." Those "big guns" are PG Conley (20.0-6.3 APG), center Gasol (20.0-6.2-4.6) and PF Randolph (14.0-8.2). Conley had 16 points but shot just 6 of 14, Gasol was held to 10 points on 5 of 13 shooting and Randolph just just plain awful, scoring only four points on 2 of 11 shooting.
The Spurs didn't make it easy on themselves Tuesday in Minnesota, falling behind by double digits before rallying for a 100-93 win. Kawhi Leonard (26.0-5.9) was his usual self with 22 points (he has now reached 20-plus points in 15 of his last 18) but the bigger (better?) news was that LaMarcus Aldridge (17.5-7.4) scored 26 points against the T-wolves. After missing two games due to a heart arrhythmia issue, he has now scored at least 18 points in all four games in his return, averaging 21.0 PPG during the stretch.
The injury to Durant gave the Spurs hope that catching the Warriors was more than just a pipe dream but while San Antonio is 8-3 SU since Durant went down, they are only 3-8 ATS. However, after losing to Memphis twice already this season, expect the Spurs to win and win HANDILY in this one.
Scott Spreitzer
Phoenix at Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn
The Suns threw in the towel a while back, have dropped seven of their last eight SU, while failing to cover any of their last five games. They've shut down Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight along with double digit per night rebounder Tyson Chandler. The Nets expect to have Jeremy Lin back on the floor tonight and when he plays, Brooklyn has much better flow and chemistry. The Nets have covered seven of their last nine, and won and covered their last game as chalk, a 120-112 SU/ATS victory over New York on March 12. It also doesn't hurt that Brooke Lopez has been on fire over the last half-dozen games. Phoenix has won just nine of 35 road games this season, have dropped five in a row ATS. They're also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Brooklyn.
Jimmy Boyd
Purdue vs. Kansas
Play: Kansas -5
I just don't think this Jayhawks team gets the respect they deserve and like the value we are getting here with only needing them to win by 6 points to cover. Purdue is a great team and I had them making the Sweet 16, but this is where they are going to be outmatched by a much more athletic and faster Kansas team. The Jayhawks will be able to matchup and contain the Boilermakers most important player in Swanigan and without a big game from him Purdue is in trouble. Keep in mind that it's Kansas who is the odds on favorite to win the tournament right now. The Jayhawks are also 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games after 2 or more consecutive win. Note that while this is officially a road game for KU, it's going to feel like a home game with the game being played in Kansas City.
Teddy Davis
West Virginia vs. Gonzaga
Play: West Virginia +3½
This game should be closer to a PK in my eyes. The Zags were very lucky last game to have a missed goal tending call followed up by a technical or else that was a 3 point game with 4 minutes left and Northwestern has all the momentum. When NW really picked up the pressure it really bothered the Zags big time. Well now they face a team that will press you the whole game. West Virginia took care of business against Notre Dame and they have one of the best back courts as a whole in college basketball. West Virginia will really get to Gonzaga here I believe they win outright.
Brian Edwards
West Virginia vs Gonzaga
Play: West Virginia +3
West Virginia took out an outstanding Notre Dame team last Sunday afternoon and did so relatively easy-like. The Fighting Irish had a number of key players remaining from back-to-back teams that advanced to the Elite Eight. WVU has the nation's best full-court press. The Mountaineers have been underdogs only three times this year, going 2-1 against the spread with one outright win (at Virginia). They went 12-6 in the brutal Big 12 and that was with three losses in overtime. Gonzaga has limped to a 3-5 spread record in its last eight games. I like WVU to win outright.
Wunderdog
Carolina @ Montreal
Pick: Over 5
Carolina has gone OVER three straight games following its 4-3 win at Florida on Tuesday. Jeff Skinner scored two goals, including the game-winner with just under four minutes remaining and Cam Ward made 33 saves. The Hurricanes have scored 24 goals their last six games and they are 7-2-2 OVER their last 11 road games. Montreal goalie Carey Price is questionable with an upper-body injury. Backup Al Montoya is 8-6-4 with a 2.67 goals-against average and .912 save percentage and was in goal against Detroit on Tuesday. Montoya made 34 saves, but the Canadiens lost it in overtime. Ward has a 2.72 GAA and .904 save percentage for the Hurricanes.
Bryan Leonard
Purdue at Kansas
Play: Over 156
Should be a tough day for the defenses as both teams own major offensive advantages. Purdue is a big team that dominates down low and Kansas is short of talented big men. On the other end of the court Kansas has great guard play and Purdue just doesn't have the speed and quickness to slow them down. Look for both teams to get the opposition in foul trouble as this game surpasses the posted total.
Jack Jones
West Virginia vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga -3½
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have gone 0-2 ATS in their first two games. They pulled away in the second half to beat South Dakota State by 20 as 23.5-point favorites. They nearly blew a 22-point lead against Northwestern, eventually winning by 6 as 10-point favorites.
I think those back-to-back non-covers have the Bulldogs undervalued here as only 3.5-point favorites over West Virginia in the Sweet 16. Look for them to put together their most complete performance of the tournament here. I like the extra preparation they'll have to get ready for WVU's press.
Another key factor here is that the Bulldogs will have a decided home-court advantage. This game will be played in San Jose, CA, so don't expect the Mountaineer fans to travel nearly as well as they have to go across country. WVU's offense has been hit or miss all season, and it will be up against the No. 1 team in the country in defensive efficiency in the Bulldogs here.
The Mountaineers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog. West Virginia is 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. Gonzaga is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
Marc Lawrence
New York at Portland
Play: Portland
Edges - Trail Blazers: 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in this series; and 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with same season loss revenge in this series… Knicks: 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS ATS with no rest following an ATS win this season. With the Blazers off aSU home favorite loss, and New York off a loss at Utah last night, we recommend a 1* play on Portland.
Brandon Lee
Suns vs. Nets
Play: Nets -4
I know Brooklyn hasn't won back-to-back games in forever and it's crazy to see them as a favorite, but I think the value here is with the Nets. The Suns have thrown up the white flag on this season and are clearly tanking to improve their draft status. Keep in mind that Brooklyn's first round pick belongs to the Celtics, so there's no real incentive for the Nets to lose. Phoenix is sitting out some of their best players even though they are healthy enough to play. I just don't see the Suns putting up much of a fight here on the road against a bad team like Brooklyn. Phoenix is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games after failing to cover 5 o6 of their last 7 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record.
RJ Robbins
Clippers vs. Mavericks
Play: Over 204
The last 5 games these two teams have played in Dallas the games have gone 'over' 4-1! The Clippers are gearing up for the Play-offs, while Dallas who still has a chance to make the Play-offs (between slim or none) hasn't mailed in the season yet!