Harry Bondi
BROOKLYN (-4) over Phoenix
This is a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Suns have clearly already quit for the season. This is a team that’s 1-6 both ATS and SU in its last seven games and has shut down its best all around player in Eric Bledsoe. This is also the third road game in five nights for the Suns, who are 9-26 SU away from home this season. On the other hand, Brooklyn is actually playing with some confidence, covering seven of its last nine games. The Nets are also 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two teams, including a 122-104 thrashing from earlier this season. Lay the points!
Bruce Marshall
Michigan vs Oregon
Pick: Michigan
Can the Webfoots continue to survive and advance without key 6-10 frontliner Chris Boucher, sidelined by a torn ACL two weeks ago? Pac-12 insiders believe Dana Altman can pick up part of Boucher's minutes with serviceable 6-11 soph Kavell Bigby-Williams, who was effective in limited stints in the Pac-12 finale and in the opening-round win over Iona. And Altman still has a menacing presence on the blocks in 6-9 jr. Jordan Bell (10.8 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 2.1 bpg). Boucher's versatility, however, is going to be hard for Altman to replicate, whatever the different personnel combinations used. And Oregon also cannot afford for explosive 6-7 wing Dillon Brooks (16 ppg) to get in foul trouble, or get whistled for a needless "T," as in the second round vs. Rhody, or for 6-4 soph G Tyler Dorsey, working on a string of five 20-point games, to begin misfiring from the perimeter. Regarding the latter, in the absence of baskets in transition, Dorsey's contributions are extra-important...especially since the Wolverines are not apt to hurt themselves with TOs (only 9.2 pg, ranking 7th nationally). For Altman, a key matchup will likely be Bell on Michigan's emerging 6-11 soph Mo Wagner, who put 26 on Louisville in the Wolverines' second-round win at Indy. Altman can probably afford not to go with a traditional "big" on Michigan's 6-10 jr. F D.J. Wilson, who will likely be the defensive assignment of the 6-7 Brooks. But the fact the Ducks are going to have to concentrate so much on these emerging forces on the Michigan frontline (Wilson, like Wagner, now on the NBA draft radar, also picked up his scoring pace with 18 ppg in the sub-regionals) suggests that Altman is going to have to pick his poison. With plenty of upperclassnman senior presence on the perimeter, led by on-court pilot Derrick Walton, Jr. (15.4 ppg, 5 apg, 42% triples; scored 26 in opening-round win over Oklahoma State) and Zak Irvin (13 ppg), John Beilein now has the experienced components to execute his well-designed offensive schemes. Not to mention being far beyond the injuries that wrecked last season in Ann Arbor. Mostly, however, the Wolverines appear on a mission, not too unlike the UConn example of 2014, catching fire in the conference tourney and continuing an ascent thru the Dance. Beating dangerous Oklahoma State and Louisville last weekend, and finding ways to gut out each of those wins, suggests the Wolverines might be sticking around just a bit longer.
John Martin
Suns vs. Nets
Play: Nets -4
The Brooklyn Nets don't have to tank down the stretch because they are going to finish with the worst record in the NBA either way. As a result, they've actually been playing some of their best basketball here of late. They have gone 4-5 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Phoenix Suns are in tank mode, going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games. They are trying to get as high a pick as possible in the draft. That's why they are sitting players like Tylson Chandler, Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight for the rest of the season. Those are three key players that they cannot play well without. I expect the Nets to roll tonight at home over the Suns.
Dave Price
Clippers vs. Mavs
Play: Mavs +5½
The Dallas Mavericks are on their last life right now in terms of making the playoffs. A desperate team is a dangerous team, and I think the Mavericks will be trying as hard as they can until they are officially eliminated from postseason play. The Clippers are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival. The Mavs are 7-0 ATS off 3 straight games being outrebounded by 5 or more this season. Dallas is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Mavericks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Ian Cameron
Winnipeg at Los Angeles
Play: Winnipeg +150
My clients and I cashed a winning ticket betting against the Los Angeles Kings on Monday night in their 2-0 shutout road loss to the Edmonton Oilers. I see another opportunity for another wager against the struggling Kings tonight as they return home to face the Winnipeg Jets. Los Angeles is 1-4 in its last five games games with the only victory coming against woeful Buffalo. The Kings have been an offensively challenged team all season but their struggles to score goals have reached new lows in recent games as they’ve been held to two goals or less in five straight games and just six goals total during that span. And the Kings’ strong home record has taken a hit recently with just two wins in their last five tries. After two awful showings in Alberta against Calgary and Edmonton (outscored 7-2) earlier this week, the Kings are eight points behind the final wild card spot in the West with only 10 games left to play. Winnipeg has been on a little uptick of late with three straight wins over the NY Islanders, Minnesota and Philadelphia. Winnipeg continues to play the role of spoiler despite being out of the playoff race. The Jets are 5-2 in the last seven meetings against the Kings including victories in two of their last three visits to LA. This is a live underdog well worth a look tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Purdue +5 over KANSAS
Some have heralded the Jayhawks as perhaps the best team in America and it’s a viable argument to be sure. Kansas has absolutely dominated opponents in the first two rounds of competition. While this was expected against a team like UC Davis, the Rock Chalks kicked it up a notch when they spanked Michigan State in the Second Round on Sunday. KU routed the Spartans by 20 despite being favored by just 7½-points. Kansas averaged 95 points in the first two rounds, which was easily the most in the tournament field. This game is also in Kansas. We’re in the business of finding inefficiencies or value in the point-spread. There is no question that a premium must be paid to back the Jayhawks here and to recap, it’s because they’re in their own backyard, they’ve whacked two teams including a marquee brand in the Spartans, they’re a #1 seed and they’re putting up massive points. The Jayhawks spotting nominal points spot is deceptively friendly. As we covered in previous podcasts, the Spartans may have been the weakest Power Conference team in this tournament and more or less earned an invitation by their pedigree more than their actual performance portfolio this year. The same cannot be said for the Boilermakers.
Purdue came into this tournament as the highest ranked team in the Big Ten and so far they have lived up to the billing. The Boilermakers are 2-0 ATS and have a far more impressive body of work than the Jayhawks to bolster their tournament credentials. Though Purdue defeated #13 Vermont handily, many thought Purdue would struggle to win, let alone cover against the Catamounts who entered with the 11th ranked scoring defense in America, an undefeated run to the America East crown and a 21-game winning streak. Purdue silenced those critics with a 10-point win but it probably should have been closer to a 17-point win after a series of bizarre incidents in the final minute made that score a lot more flattering to the Catamounts.
Purdue would subsequently triumph over the Big 12 Champion, #4 seed Iowa State. In both games, the Boilermakers absolutely bullied both opponents on the boards. That stingy play aligns with Purdue’s strategy to bolster a presence in the paint and a desire to shut down second chances. The Boilermakers are ranked 22nd nationally in doing so, while the Rock Chalks sit at 134th nationally in terms of defensive rebounding. The Jayhawks weakness is no inside presence. The way that Purdue took down a monster in Iowa State is not being talked about much. Not only did the Boilermakers open up a near 20-poiint lead, they did so in a hostile environment, just like the one they’ll play in here. Furthermore, when the Cyclones (perhaps the best shooting team in America) fought all the way back and took a two-point lead late in the game, the Boilermakers took a time out and scored the next seven points to secure the deal. That’s not being talked about much either but it was a significant moment for this program. You see, the Boilermakers have been knocked out in the first round the previous two seasons. The resiliency they displayed against the Cyclones shows they have matured and are now over that hump. Sky is now the limit.
The Boilermakers have it all. They are an excellent passing, shooting and rebounding team and have the production and presence of Caleb Swanigan. We’ve already heard some analysts question whether or not the Boilermakers can keep pace with the Jayhawks or their guards so allow us to put that to rest. Purdue just beat a guard heavy team in Iowa State and they did so in impressive fashion. We have no idea who is going to win this game but we are 100% sure where the value lies and thus, the Boilermakers are the right way to go.
Arizona -7½ over Xavier
Coming into the NCAA tournament, the Arizona Wildcats were overshadowed in the West Region by #1 Gonzaga, who many pundits picked to go to the Final Four, by #7 Michigan after the Wolverines miracle run through the Big 10 Tournament, and by #3 Oregon who was a trendy pick until star Canadian Chris Boucher tore is ACL in the Pac 12 Tournament. The Wildcats may have been an under the radar for a #2 seed coming into the tournament, but that is no longer the case.
The Wildcats are the biggest favorite on the board in the Sweet 16 but a closer look at the line shows they still might not be getting the respect they deserve. Arizona has some damn good wins this season over tournament teams like Michigan State, Oregon, USC, and they even beat the mighty Bruins twice! The market may be down on the Wildcats after they were given a real scare from Saint Mary's, but the fact that Arizona was able to rally, take the lead and never look back should serve them well the rest of the way. Arizona is more than capable but this wager is more about fading the dog than it is about spotting 7½-points with the favorite.
After two wins to start the NCAA Tournament, the 11th seeded Musketeers are riding high. The Musketeers knocked off #6 Maryland in round one and then embarrassed Florida State 91-66 as a 7½-point pooch in Round 2. That dominating win over the Seminoles has left a lasting impression in the market but the final score was much more impressive than the performance. The moment the Seminoles went down by double digits, they quit. Xavier’s blowout victory over a perceived quality opponent has caused an overreaction that we now get to benefit from.
While a trip to the Sweet 16 looks nice on paper, it’s what the Musketeers do. Xavier has made the Sweet 16 twice since 2013 but they have not been able to break down that wall to the Elite 8 since joining the Big East. The problem is that aside from Villanova, this is still just a conference made up of leftovers and former mid-majors. Xavier's resume looks to have some nice wins, with victories over tournament teams like Providence, Creighton, Seton Hall and Butler but again, the problem is all of those teams also play in the overvalued Big East so their quality wins are as skewed as the mediocre teams that all beat up on each other. Against quality out-of-conference competition, the Musketeers didn't fair nearly as well, losing to both Baylor and Colorado before beginning Big East play. Finally, we cannot forget how Xavier stumbled into this tournament. The Musketeers won just one of their last seven games and that win was against DePaul, the worst team in the conference. Xavier used to be a spunky mid-major but now they think they belong with the big boys. They don’t and we're likely to find out one again why team like Xavier RARELY make it past the second weekend.
West Virginia +155 over Gonzaga
On paper, this Gonzaga team is absolutely incredible. At least that’s what all the experts say. On the court, we suppose they are pretty decent as well, having only lost one game. The numbers like the Zags too. The Bulldogs are second in the entire nation in offensive rating, ninth in rebounding percentage, second in effective field goal percentage, first in defensive rating, and first in opponent FG%. They somehow don't really have a weakness, or at least that’s what the experts say. What the experts don’t say is that the Zags played teams like Portland, Pepperdine and Pacific all season long. They did not have to break a sweat this entire season. When they were pushed by an 11-point dog in Northwestern in the second round, only a horrible call by the refs saved the Zags from being eliminated. That one well-documented weak call turned a three-point lead into a seven-point lead in the blink of an eye and it also sucked the wind out of the building. There is little doubt that if the refs called “basket interference”, Northwestern would’ve ridden that huge wave of momentum to victory. Yeah, the Zags have good players and yeah, they’re big and can rebound and yeah, they can win this game. However, there is a price to pay for playing cupcakes all year and the Zags almost paid their dues last weekend. They’ll now take a massive step up in class when facing these Mountaineers.
While the Zags were playing the Pacific’s and Pepperdine’s of the world, West Virginia was playing teams like Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State and TCU not once but twice. The Mountaineers defeated Kansas once and went to OT with them the second time before losing by four. They also have a 13-point win over Iowa State, a 21-point win over Baylor and a 17-point win over Oklahoma State. Gonzaga beat Santa Clara by 30. So, what we have here is a bunch of skewed numbers against a bunch of legit numbers. Gonzaga’s stellar defensive numbers came against the 123rd ranked schedule while WVU’s was against the sixth toughest schedule in the country. West Virginia owns the fifth-ranked defense and this was attained while taking on the 36th ranked schedule in terms of offensive strength. Let’s not also forget that West Virginia has the deeper bench and they can rotate personnel that can play a variety of roles while the Zags are more prone to get gassed against this rugged bunch. The Mountaineers simply have it all and they can score points too, as they are #1 in the tournament thus far in three-point %. West Virginia is incredible on the defensive end and they excel in causing turnovers. The Mountaineers cause a turnover on 24.7% of possessions, just an absurd number and one that leads the country.
In last year’s Sweet 16, there were 15 major-conference teams and Gonzaga. This year, there are 15 major-conference teams and Gonzaga. Last year, the Zags were knocked out the Sweet 16 by Syracuse. Rarely do the Zags get by the round of 32, let alone the round of 16 and that’s because they are not battle tested and never are. It’s the same story every year for the Zags. They come in with a high seed and with expectations through the roof and every year they fall to a battle-tested and talented group. West Virginia is all of the above and more and offer up such great value here to win outright that it is the way we’re going to have to play it. Mountaineers outright get the call.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Jersey +165 over TORONTO
OT included. There was a time a generation or two ago when every season was measured in a vacuum, when it was understood that anything short of a Stanley Cup win— or failing that, a playoff appearance—was a huge bust. Only a few old-school types espouse this philosophy these days. Success traverses many paths. Anything can happen, but the odds of the Maple Leafs finding a championship form this year is very slim. This season isn’t about what happens in the playoffs for the Leafs (if they make it). It is a staging ground for a future that is already exciting and that is going to be so much fun for Toronto’s long suffering fans. The Maple Leafs are fun to watch and easy to root for but they are not in a position to be priced this high against the Devils. For one, they played their hearts out last night in Columbus in a game they were so well-prepped and ready for after losing to the Jackets the previous three games this season. Knowing that the Jackets are a potential first round playoff matchup, Toronto needed to put some doubt into that team instead of going 0-4 against them this season. They did exactly that and this is the aftermath game.
The Devils will come in tonight with a chance to make life just a little more difficult for the Maple Leafs and don’t think they can’t do it. The Devils come in with a weak record over the past month with just two wins in 14 games so their stock is low. After a 12-game losing streak, New Jersey is now 2-2 over its last four games with a 6-2 victory over Philly and a 3-2 win over the Rangers. Now the Devils will take their best shot at the Leafs. The Maple Leafs’ offense can be terrifying but they give up about as much as they generate - which is a lot. So for the Devils to be competitive tonight, they just need to find ways to attack and take plenty of initiative to shoot. This isn’t a total pipe dream, as the Devils rang up 36 shots on net against Pittsburgh and Columbus, two teams they played before beating the Rags on Tuesday. Situationally, this is a tough spot for the Leafs while the Devils come in with nothing to lose and usually give Toronto a hard time no matter what. Overlay.
BOSTON -1½ +153 over Tampa Bay
Let’s discuss the “must-win” angle for a second. In its biggest game of the year last time out, Tampa lost at home to Arizona, 5-3, after the Coyotes scored a shorthanded goal to seal it. The Bolts biggest game of the year before that was against the team they were chasing and catching up to, the Toronto Maple Leafs, exactly one week ago. Tampa lost 5-0 to the Leafs and in between that game and the loss to Arizona, the Bolts lost 5-3 to Washington. As the result of surrendering five goals in each of its last three games, Bolts Coach, Jon Cooper wishes he could have Ben Bishop back but he can’t. Now Cooper is handing the reins over to Kings’ castoff, Petr Budaj. The Bolts are no longer chasing Toronto. The team that is holding down the final Wild Card spot is these Bruins and now this becomes once again, Tampa’s most important game of the year.
It also another day, another “most important game of the season” for the Bruins. Tampa sits five points in back of the Bruins. The Islanders sit two back. Both Tampa and Boston enter tonight’s game carrying a three-game losing streak. The difference, however, is that the Bruins are no strangers to adversity this season, even under interim coach Bruce Cassidy. Up until their three-game skid, the B’s have bounced back from their three prior losses during the Cassidy era. The Bruins outplayed the Sens on Tuesday but fell victim to great goaltending by Craig Anderson. This is a team that put forth a dominating performance in Calgary to snap the Flames 11-game winning streak. This is a team that is 12-6 over its last 18 games and has been downright dominating in most of them. This is a Bruins’ team with a significant edge in goal that has missed the playoffs in back-to-back years and that is showing the heart and determination to not repeat it. The three losses in a row by the B’s look worse on paper than they were on the ice and this line (Boston -191) reflects that. Big game for both teams but the B's have proven they can be trusted under these circumstances while the Lightnign have not even come close.
Brad Wilton
Xavier and Arizona met in this round in March of 2015, and it was Arizona that took a 68-60 decision at they Staples Center in Los Angeles in a game they were favored by -10 1/2 points.
Only 3 players from that game saw action on either side, as Bluiett and Macura for Xavier played double-digits in minutes and each scored just 2 points, while Ristic came off the bench for Arizona and played 4 scoreless minutes.
Suffice to say, ALL 3 players will net more points in tonight's meeting that is to take place in San Jose.
I see a similar end result with Arizona advancing the to last 8 standing, but I am not going to underestimate this Xavier team any longer. The Musketeers have knocked out Maryland to open their dance, and even more impressive was their 91-66 win over a big and talented Florida State team.
True, Arizona is also big and talented, and Arizona's coach is a tad better than Florida State's coach, but Chris Mack is was an assistant to Sean Miller at Xavier many moons ago, and Mack very good at finding matchups that work in his favor.
The Wildcats were, and still are a team that has the depth and talent to cut down the nets in Glendale in early April, but I just think this impost is a little too tall to give to an Xavier team that has now stabilized since the loss of guard Edmond Sumner at the end of January as the X-Men have covered their last 6 games.
Backdoor open in San Jose on Thursday.
2* XAVIER
Chris Jordan
Tonight I'm on the ice, looking at the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Ottawa Senators.
So we're getting down to the nitty gritty on ice, with the postseason rapidly skating toward us. The Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators are both jockeying for playoff seeding, and whenever I see the Pens in a matchup like this I have to give them the benefit of the doubt.
Though the defending Stanley Cup champs clinched a playoff berth for the 11th straight season, after recording a 3-1 win against the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday, they're still not done.
Pittsburgh is within a point of the Metropolitan Division-leading Washington Capitals, and one point ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets for second place in the Metropolitan Division.
Now, the Pens can't afford to take Ottawa lightly, as it sits three points behind the Montreal Canadiens for first place in the Atlantic Division.
Look for some leadership tonight from Penguins captain Sidney Crosby, who is on a three-game goal scoring streak in which he has scored six goals, and will be picking up the slack from the top line, where it is missing forward Jake Guentzel, who sustained a concussion against Buffalo.
The Senators are expected to be without top forward Mark Stone, who has missed six games with a lower-body injury, so they too are short-handed tonight.
Take Pittsburgh as your free winner, as it rolls to the win on the road.
2* PENGUINS
Bruce Marshall
Brooklyn -4.5
Do they have to play this game? Brooklyn at least looks more interested lately, with three SU wins (not bad for Nets, though not sure we should count two of those vs. the Knicks) and six spread covers in last eight thru March 20. Brooklyn also romped by 18 in the desert back on Nov. 12 when holding Suns to mere 37% FG shooting. Unfortunately for Phoenix, it doesn't look up to a revenge effort, with SU and spread losses last four into Tuesday at Miami, and suiting up only 8 players due to myriad of injuries in Sunday's loss at Detroit. With Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight having been shut down for the season, it leaves Leandro Barbosa and Jared Dudley (and maybe Ronnie Price?) as the only guys not on a rookie or 10-day contract that are still playing for the Suns!
3G-Sports
West Virginia vs. Gonzaga
Play: Under 149.5
Gonzaga big man, Przemek Karnowski, makes a huge difference for the Zags. His size and aggressiveness creates a huge problem for defenders. Gonzaga has an excellent frontcourt - and they are a full games work covering them all. Gonzaga can crash the boards with the best of them - and West Virginia will not be able to keep them under wraps too much. The fact that West Virginia hasn't been able to shoot the ball overall - with any semblance of consistency is a huge issue to deal with. West Virginia struggles with FT"s too. I like the UNDER in this matchup tonight.
Frank Jordan
Clippers vs. Mavericks
Play: Clippers -4
LA Clippers are rolling as everyone is back healthy and in game shape allowing them to gel on the court once again like earlier in the season. The Clippers have won three in a row and six of 10 to move within a game of Utah for 4th in the West and home court in the first round. The Clippers are holding their own on the road with a 20-18 road record and are 24-19 in conference games. Dallas is 30-40 on the year, but still having successes at home with a winning record at 20-16. Dallas has struggled in conference in conference with a 17-25 record. These two teams have met twice this season with the road teams winning the first two match ups as the Clippers had a 20 point win early in the season in Dallas and the Mavericks won by two in LA in their second meeting. Look for this trend to continue as the red hot Clippers roll into Dallas and pick up a win of the Mavericks 120-110.
Frank Sawyer
Xavier vs. Arizona
Play: Over 144
Take Over the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers and the Arizona Wildcats. Xavier (23-13) enters this game coming off their big 91-66 win over Florida State in a game where they shot 55.6% from the field. The Musketeers have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Xavier has also played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament as an underdog. Arizona (32-4) reached the Sweet 16 with their 69-60 win over Saint Mary’s as a 5-point favorite. The Wildcats have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral court, the Over is 4-1-1.
Jack Brayman
Let me put this on front street for all of you: my Coach of the Year vote goes to Miami's Erik Spoelstra, especially if the Heat end up making the playoffs.
Miami has been forced to reinvent itself, and has taken on an entirely different identity.
And here's an interesting take to strengthen my argument, the Heat were seven games behind the Knicks in late December. The Heat open today eight games ahead of the Knicks.
That's a 15-game swing in less than 90 days, and win or lose tonight, the Heat will be No. 8 in the East when tonight is over.
I say the win, and cover. Take Miami.
1* HEAT
Eric Schroeder
Those pesky Memphis Grizzlies have never been too kind to the San Antonio Spurs. Whether it was several years back when Memphis was a No. 8 seed, and eliminated the then-No. 1 seed Spurs. Or recent times like this season, with two of San Antonio's six losses coming at the hands of Memphis.
That's 12 percent.
And as Manny Ribera said to Tony Montana in Scarface: "12 percent it's not peanuts."
The Spurs know if there is one team they need to make a statement against - for their own damn good - it's the Grizzlies.
While Memphis saw its four-game winning streak end Tuesday with a 95-82 loss to the newlook New Orleans Pelicans, the Spurs were using an 8-0 run in the closing minutes to escape with a 100-93 win at the Minneapolis Timberwolves the same night.
This may not be the best night to play in San Antonio, as the Spurs will be looking to play a bit more serious, to prepare mentally and physically for the postseason.
After all, Tony did eventually respond to Manny: "I'm telling you. We're getting sloppy. Our thinking, our f---ing attitude..."
The Spurs can't afford to be sloppy right now.
1* SPURS