DAVE COKIN
TEXAS A&M VS OKLAHOMA
PLAY: TEXAS A&M +2.5
Talk about the ultimate freeroll. Texas A&M was dead and buried last Sunday against Northern Iowa. Then came the resurrection of the ages, the most incredible rally in college basketball history. The Aggies have to be believing they’re a team of destiny at this point. For those bettors who decided to fire on some pretty long odds on Texas A&M to win the whole ball of wax back in January, I can certainly understand if they’re feeling exactly the same way right now.
Of course, getting through tonight’s Sweet 16 clash with Oklahoma is not going to be easy. The Sooners have the cinch player of the year in Buddy Hield, they’re very used to playing big games thanks to how tough the Big 12 was this year, and Lon Kruger is just the type of even keel coach I really like in games like this.
But the Sooners could well have their hands full and maybe even overflowing against the Aggies. Texas A&M is pretty adept at forcing turnovers and that has been an occasional issue for Oklahoma. The Sooners can’t match A&M’s depth, and with the energy likely to be expended in a game of this magnitude, an extra fresh body or two could be important.
There are numerous aspects here that I could speculate on, but I’m really going to focus on just two. The first is just good old math. I suspect I have the Aggies rated a shade higher than most, and as much as I really like this Oklahoma team, I’m pretty sure I’ve rated them just a tad lower than the majority of those who do their own power ratings. For what it’s worth, I have Texas A&M as a one-point favorite over Oklahoma on a neutral court. So there’s a touch of value on the Aggies side from my vantage point.
But the big key for me really is what I mentioned at the top. This is the ultimate freeroll. The Aggies really have zero pressure on themselves here as they’re rightfully supposed to be watching these games on TV back in College Station. This is bonus basketball and the team has absolutely nothing to lose. In a game this huge, I like the idea of backing the squad that ought to be as loose as a goose. Since my numbers don’t suggest otherwise, I’m going to take that basket and ride with the Texas A&M side tonight.
Sleepyj
Bulls / Knicks Over 202.5
Back to back nights for both of these teams...They both played each other last night..They scored 222 points in that game..One would think the defense lets up here a bit...Bulls came out rather cold at home and they really need a win here..Knicks are playing with house money at this point...I see little defense in this one and they just saw what the other has to offer on defensive side of the ball..Why change what worked in the 2nd half of the game last night...They probably won't and they scored a total of 110 pts in the 2nd half...The 3ball was on fire last night and they will be shooting it again here as well..Over is the call..This line goes up.
Ben Burns
Thunder -9½
I won with Utah last night but this figures to be a tough spot.
The Jazz are playing well right now and there's a lot to like about them as a team. However, they're playing the fourth leg of a 5-game road trip and if they're going to lay an egg, this is probably the spot to do so. Even when playing on them last night, I acknowledged that the Jazz weren't nearly as good on the road as they are at Utah. Speaking of last night's game, (at Houston) it was a really big one, with major playoff implications. The Jazz gave it everything they had and won right before the buzzer. Utah always has trouble here and the Thunder, who had last night off, are playing really well these days, with five straight wins. Consider laying the points.
Tony George
Miami vs. Villanova
Play: Villanova -4
I am laying it with a team that clearly belongs in the Final 4. Miami got lucky catching a fatigued and tired Wichita State team in their last game. Nova destroyed Iowa and cruised to a win and I like their rebounding and the ability of 4 of their starters to add double digits each in scoring. This is not Buffalo and a beat up Mo Valley team, Nova is a 5 loss team who has dominated every team they have played in this tourney. If you noticed rebounding was a huge factor in the early round games and second chance points and more than 1 key player that can be counted on for points. All this favor Nova who is an amazing 16-4 away from their home floor.
Rob Vinciletti
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
Play: Texas A&M +2½
This game pits a pair of old school Big 12 Conference rivals. A@M is now in the SEC Conference. In their last game they staged on of the biggest come backs in NCAAB History coming back from down 12 with under 3 minutes to go over Northern Iowa. They are 11-0 after scoring 80 or more points and have won the last 4 vs the BIG 12 Conference. In sweet 16 games between 2 and 3 seeds the 2 seeds hold a 61% advantage, which does not factor in the spread. Oklahoma Edged a better than expected VCU Team. Oklahoma has a better RPI Rank at #6 than A@M Does at #18 but the Aggies have won 5 of 6 vs Top 50 schools and has enough offensive fire power to stay with Oklahoma.
Marc Lawrence
Cavaliers vs. Nets
Play: Nets +8
Edges - Nets: 3-0 SUATS last three home off a home loss; and 20-8 ATS as dogs of 6 or more points versus foe off a win. Cavaliers: 3-6 ATS away with no rest this season, including 0-4 ATS versus foe off a loss. With Cleveland 10-24-1 ATS in this series off BB wins, we recommend a 1* play on Brooklyn.
Mike Lundin
Flames vs. Wild
Play: Under 5½
The Calgary Flames are off a 5-2 loss at Toronto Monday, but I don't expect to see quite as many goals tonight when they visit the Minnesota Wild.
Minnesota is off three consecutive victories, the most recent a 2-1 win against the Kings Tuesday. The under is 3-1-3 in the Wild's last seven overall so I really like the fact that we get the hook to avoid a push here.
We'll see Devan Dubnyk between the pipes for Minny and he has posted a 1.58 GAA in the last three games and owns a 1.74 GAA over a four-game win streak against Calgary. The Flames will turn to former Wild netminder Niklas Backstrom, and the veteran was sharp in his first start this season when he made 21 saves in a 2-1 win against the Habs Sunday.
Brad Diamond
Jazz vs. Thunder
Play: Under 198
The Thunder show +27 games on the schedule, while Utah is improving still under .500 at 35-36 on season. Utah has won 7-of-10, 3 straight coming into action. OKC is hot winning 5 straight, while both units are currently playoff bound. On the math card, the series has illustrated consistency with a defensive focus going UNDER in 7 straight. Utah (41-28-2U) and OKC (39-32U) have both been favorites to the sports-betting community on the under card this season.
Alex Smart
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
Play: Texas A&M +2½
Oklahoma and Texas A&M go head to head in a Western Regional Semi Final match that promises to be a hard fought affair . Both these teams can put points on the board in a hurry, but the difference maker comes via defense, where the Aggies are the superior side, as is evident by having held 8 of their L/10 opponents under 69 total points. Considering the Sooners, notorious reputation for long cold shooting stretches, it becomes evident we have an edge backing the Aggies. The old adage that suggests defense wins big games and championships must be applied here today by anyone handicapping this top tier matchup. Oklahoma is 8-18 ATS as a favorite this season and they have failed to cover 6 straight games overall.
Jim Feist
Pelicans vs. Pacers
Play: Pacers -12½
New Orleans doesn't match up well with Indiana, 0-8 ATS the last eight meetings. New Orleans is not playing any defense, allowing over 105 points in 10 straight. The Pelicans are 8-20 ATS against the Eastern Conference and on a 2-6 spread run. Indiana is home and the Pacers are 14-2 ATS playing on two days rest. Paul George finished with 15 points and six rebounds and Monta Ellis added 13 points to help Indiana coast past the still reeling Philadelphia 76ers 91-75 and jump-start a late-season playoff push. Indiana has seven remaining home games left and only four left against teams that started Monday with a record at or above .500. And the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Darryl Tucholski
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma -2½
The Sooner's have won by a slim margin in a few games lately, 3 games being settled by 4 or less since the start of March. This is a different story, they can't afford to let Texas A&M linger. Buddy Hield will again be fed the ball as much as he can handle, he's put up 20+ in 5 of his last 7. The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs southeastern.
ASA
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
Play: Over 146½
Kansas gets an extra day to rest and prepare here as they finished off UConn last Saturday while the Terps (who had a long trip to Spokane, WA) had to play on Sunday. Coaching edge also the KU with Bill Self and his 39-16 record in the NCAA tourney (5th highest winning % all time) compared to Turgeon who’s a pedestrian 8-6 lifetime in the Dance. The Terps struggled down the stretch winning just 3 of their final 8 games heading into the Big Dance. While they obviously did get two wins last week, they weren’t overly impressive in our eyes. They struggled to beat South Dakota State (couldn’t hold a big lead) and then while they beat Hawaii by 12, it was a close game until the final stretch run when the Terps closed out the game on a 30-19 run. Maryland’s tough closing run on the season was directly related to the struggles of their point guard Melo Trimble. He’s played so many minutes he’s hit a wall. In his last 12 games, Trimble is shooting just 32% and just 26% from beyond the arc. This team has no chance of beating KU unless Trimble shoots much better than that. Will he? We doubt it as Kansas is 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and guard Devonte Graham is one of the better defenders in the country. The Jayhawks have been at the top of their game since late January winning 16 straight including wins over NCAA teams Kentucky, Iowa State, West Virginia (twice), Baylor (twice), Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas all in the final month and a half before the Dance. They destroyed both Austin Peay (by 26) & UConn (by 13 – but led by 24) in the first two games. This team is playing too well right now for Maryland to hang.
Bob Harvey
Bulls vs. Knicks
Play: Bulls -4
The Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks complete a home and home set when they tangle in the Big Apple. Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden where Chicago is favored by -4 with the total at 203. New York had last three straight and was averaging 87 points per game before firing up the offense in last night’s victory in the Windy City.
The Bulls (36-33, 29-40 ATS) were 3-0 on its homestand and had won nine in a row at the United Center against New York but it had no answer for the Knicks, who went 14 of 25 from beyond the arc en route to a 115-107 win on Wednesday. Leading scorer Jimmy Butler was held to just seven points on 3 of 11 shooting as Chitown fell a game back of Indiana and Detroit for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. They now begin a closing stretch in which they play eight of their final 12 games on the road.
The Knicks (28-43, 37-34 ATS) rode to victory behind the play of rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who broke out of a funk with 29 points and 10 rebounds while Carmelo Anthony returned from a one-game layoff due to a migraine to score 24 points.
The OVER is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in New York and 5-1-1 last seven overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in the Knicks last five home games.
Will Rogers
Duke vs. Oregon
Pick: Duke
They Duke Blue Devils are an underdog to Pac-12 champs Oregon in the Sweet 16, and I think this is one line that is way out of whack. Oregon is a good team that has been impressive all year, but Duke is a defending champion, with championship experience, superior coaching and all the tools to do it again this year. My money is on the Blue Devils getting the points.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Duke owns the best winning percentage in NCAA Tournament history, and the Blue Devils have covered the spread in seven of their last eight tournament games. Oregon struggled against St. Joseph's, needing a late rally to win 69-64. The Ducks haven't played a team as good as Duke all year, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus teams from the ACC.
2. Grayson Allen - Duke's star guard went off for 29 points in the win over Yale, hitting 5-of-7 from beyond the arc. He's been money from the free-throw line this post-season, hitting a staggering 27-of-29 (93%) of his attempts. The sophomore has stepped up to the plate when it counts, dating back to last year's championship game when he scored 16 points in just 21 minutes in the win over Wisconsin.
3. X-Factor - Duke lost to Utah at Madison Square Garden early in the season, and I think a lot of people are looking at that and expecting the same result here against an Oregon team that roughed up the Utes. That was then and this is now. Duke is a much better team than it was then, and their young players have since gained a ton of experience. It's also worth noting that Duke's leading scorer was battling illness in the loss to Utah, and scored just seven points on 3-of-18 shooting. You can bet the farm on a better showing from Allen in tonight's game.
Raphael Esparza
Oregon (+230) To Win The West Region
Last week I told you to bet Oregon +250 to win the West Region, and the Ducks (the #1 seed) made it to the Sweet 16. They are still getting no respect. I know St. Joseph's gave the Ducks a scare, but that was just a bad matchup for the Ducks and getting Oregon still over $2 in my eyes is a steal. Oklahoma is the No.2 seed in the West, and they are the betting favorites to win, but it wouldn't shock me to see Texas A&M pulling off the upset Thursday night in the Honda Center. Oregon still comes into the Sweet 16 winners of now 10 straight games, and I still see their speed and their fast tempo bothering Duke Thursday night and whoever they play on Saturday. I still think getting Oregon plus $2 to win the West is a steal!