Alan Harris
Kansas (-6.5) over Maryland
The Kansas Jayhawks will look to advance to the Elite 8 for the first time since 2012 when they take on the Maryland Terrapins at the KFC Yum Center in Louisville on Thursday night. The Jayhawks have posted an 18-6 ATS record in their last 24 nonconference games, and they have gone a lights out 8-1 ATS in their last nine games played at a neutral site. The Terrapins, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Thursday as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win, and they have failed to cover the number in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games. Throw in the fact that Kansas has gone 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win dating back to the regular season and we'll lay the points with them here to get the win and cover, advancing to face the winner of Miami/Villanova for the right to go to the Final Four.
Vernon Croy
Texas A&M (+2) over Oklahoma
This pick falls into one of my top CBB systems, and I have Texas A&M winning a close game here Thursday night. The Sooners are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games when playing a team with a winning record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games. The Aggies have been more tested in the Tournament so far, and that will only help them against this Sooners team. The Aggies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a Big 12 opponent, and they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against the Sooners. The Aggies are actually the better overall team at this point in the Tournament, and I look for them to pull off the minor upset Thursday night.
Jesse Schule
Maryland vs Kansas
Pick: Kansas
Kansas is cruising into it's Sweet 16 matchup versus Maryland, coming off 16 straight wins, 10 of those in games decided by at least 10 points. The Jayhawks aren't just winning, they are covering the spread as well, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 overall. The Terrapins on the other hand have not played their best basketball of late, coming into the tournament as losers of five of eight. They didn't impress much in wins over lower seeded teams (South Dakota State and Hawaii), and those games can hardly prepare them for a game against the #1 team in the country. Kansas manhandled a very good Connecticut Huskies team, out-scoring them 44-24 in the first half, and out-rebounding them 44-24 in the game. Maryland has struggled on the board, averaging just 29.4 rebounds per game over their last five, and they are likely to have trouble with the size of this Kansas team. Kansas is 8-1 ATS in it's last nine neutral site game, and has won nine of 10 at neutral sites this season. The Jayhawks are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. Maryland has gone cold from beyond the arc, shooting just 24.3 percent from three-point range in the tournament. There were a woeful 1-of-18 from beyond the arc against Hawaii, and they'll get buried if they shoot like that against the Jayhawks.
Chip Chirimbes
Maryland vs. Kansas
Play: Kansas -6
The Terrapins are back in the Sweet-16 for the first time in 13 years and they got here by defeating Hawaii in a game where they went 1-for-18 from beyond the arch. Maryland is 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games while Kansas is 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Jayhawks are flying high with easy wins leading Austin Peay and Connecticut by a combined 92-52 margin. Maryland coach Mark Turgeon played and coached at Kansas and was born in Topeka...do you think it will help?
Ari Atari
Stars vs. Coyotes
Play: Stars -145
Dallas has clinched a playoff berth after missing the playoffs in six of the last seven seasons. Their offense is on fire, averaging 3.6 goals per game on the road, while going 8-2-2 in their last twelve away from home. The most important thing for the Stars is that their getting production from guys like Fiddler, Sceviour, and Eakin, while not completely relying on their big guns. Additionally, Keri Lehtonen is fantastic when he's hot, and he's scorching right now, winning three in a row and shutting out the Islanders the other day. Arizona can play a bit, and are one of the most improved teams in the NHL this season, but their lack of depth on the blue line and up front doesn't give them the ability to compete with top tier squads. Also, Mike Smith is back, and even though he's played well, he's not much of a goalie. Stars keep it rolling in the desert.
John Ryan
Bulls vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks +5
SIM algorithm shows a high probability the Knicks will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 7.5* play using the line and a 2.5* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion PointsThe following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Bulls are just 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons; 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) when they allow 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when they score 93 to 98 points in a game this season; Bulls are a solid 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when they make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game this season.
Bill Biles
Texas Arlington -3.5
UTA has a player in Hervey who will be a matchup nightmare for NJIT He will be able to score and get rebounds at will in this one and UTA wins this one to move on in the CIT
Larry Ness
New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Indiana Pacers
New Orleans features 5 players averaging 15-plus PPG but FOUR are currently sidelined...
The Indiana Pacers (7th) are 37-33, a single percentage point ahead of the Detroit Pistons (8th) at the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff race, with the Chicago Bulls (9th) currently on the outside looking in at 36-34. The Pacers lost home games last week to quality opponents Toronto and Oklahoma City but returned to the win column by picking on the hapless Philadelphia 76ers in a 91-75 drubbing on Monday. "It felt like our energy was there,” Indiana star Paul George (23.5-7.0-4.2) told reporters after the win. The good news here is that the Pacers will host the 26-44 Pelicans tonight, a team which is just playing out the string.
New Orleans features five players averaging 15-plus PPG on the season but FOUR are currently sidelined, including three for the rest of the season. The Pelicans recently shut down star forward Anthony Davis (24.3-10.3) for the rest of the year, as he joins swingman Evans (15.2-5.2-6.6) and guard Gordon (15.2), who were already lost for the year. The team’s outstanding sixth-man, Ryan Anderson (17.0-6.0), is also sidelined with a groin injury (no timetable set for his return, if any), leaving only PG Holiday (16.7-6.0 APG) among the team’s “Big 5.”
Indiana is getting a nice break in the schedule down the stretch and closes the season with NINE of its final 13 games against teams with losing records, a stretch which began with Monday’s win over the pathetic 76ers. Indiana has taken NINE of the last 10 in the series with New Orleans and there's little reason to think the Indiana’s five-game homestand, which winds up tonight against the injury-ravaged Pelicans, won't end on a positive note. Lay the points.
Power Sports
Chicago vs. New York
Pick: New York
With Wednesday seeing TWO teams (Atlanta, Portland) avenge a loss in the front end of a home & home, the natural tendency here is to lay the points w/ Chicago, who suffered a shocking 115-107 loss at home to the Knicks last night. But I'd be careful as for the 2nd straight time, my power ratings say the Bulls are overvalued.
Last night, the Bulls were bet all the way up to -9 when the power ratings indicated that they should be no more than a 4.5-pt choice at the betting window. Here, the ratings don't even believe they should be favored! I don't think people realize the full extent of how disappointing a season it's been in the Windy City. The Bulls have a negative efficiency rating and on the road they've been a disaster, going only 12-21 straight up while being outscored by 4.5 PPG. Simply put, this is not a team you'd want to lay points with away from home. The fact this is just the ninth time all season that they've been a road fave somewhat bears that out.
The Knicks are done and Kurt Rambis is an embarrassment as a head coach. What will keep many from wanting to play them in this spot is the fact that they last won B2B games back in mid-January. But that fact is also what's keeping them undervalued in this spot as I would look for the team to be quite hungry for what would be just its second win at MSG all month. Again, I don't think that Chicago is a playoff team, yet they continued to be priced as such. Take the points.
Teddy Davis
Maryland vs. Kansas
Play: Maryland +6
I won with Maryland vs Hawaii and will back them again tonight. Maryland simply isn't getting enough respect due to Kansas having two easy games so far. The impressing thing about Maryland beating Hawaii was is that they shot 5% from the three point line yes 5%!!!!! That is truly unheard of. Kansas has been killing their first two opponents on the glass, but I don't see that happening at all tonight. Maryland has just as good of athletes and remember this team for a long time was ranked in the Top 10 and even Top 5. I wouldn't be surprised to see Maryland pull the upset!
Oskeim Sports
Miami Florida vs Villanova
Play: Miami Florida +4
Villanova is a money-burning 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of less than five points, while head coach Jay Wright is just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS versus ACC opposition since losing to the Tar Heels in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. Villanova inexplicably relies upon three-pointers despite shooting just 35.1% from long distance (147th in the nation).
The Wildcats will have a difficult time finding open looks against a very good Miami defense that is allowing just 66.7 points per game to teams that would combine to average 74.0 points per game. More important;y, the Hurricanes are 12-6 SU on the road where they are limiting opponents to just 70.1 points per game. Head coach Jim Larrinaga's squad is ranked 51st in scoring defense and 25th in personal fouls per game (16.6) so the Hurricanes are more than capable of slowing down a Villanova attack that is subject to variance based upon its obsession with shooting three-pointers (44% of Villanova's shot attempts are from beyond the arc).
Miami is also efficient at the offensive end of the floor, averaging 75.4 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field. The Hurricanes' attack is just as effective on foreign soil, averaging 75.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the floor on the road this season. Overall, Miami's offense is ranked 27th nationally in field goal percentage, 39th in scoring margin (+8.7), 22nd in free-throw percentage (.750) and 32nd in turnovers per game (10.9). Miami possesses two important characteristics of teams capable of making a run in the NCAA Tournament: (1) the Hurricanes take excellent care of the ball; and (2) the Hurricanes do not attempt a lot of three-pointers.
From a technical standpoint, Miami Florida is 21-8-1 ATS in its last thirty games off a win and 13-4 ATS in its last seventeen non-conference tilts, whereas the Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games off a win and 1-5 ATS in their last six ACC affairs. The Hurricanes are also one of six ACC squads to reach the second week of the NCAA Tournament. In last year's NCAA Tournament, six ACC squads combined for seventeen wins so there is post-season pedigree favoring the Hurricanes as well. Finally, my math model only favors Villanova by 3.5-points so we are getting line value as well. Grab the points with the Hurricanes and invest with confidence.
Wunderdog
Duke vs. Oregon
Pick: Duke +3.5
Perhaps no team has underachieved as much as this Duke team this season. They aren't deep, but the six or seven man rotation they utilize is as talented as any in the field. This is the 15th Sweet 16 for Duke since 1998, and under Coach K, this is a team that can never be counted out. Brandon Ingrahm and Grayson Allen are going to go in the first round of the NBA draft if they choose to leave, and would like to make their mark before leaving. Oregon is a very talented and deep team, but the lack of quality teams at the top of the field this year had them seeded as a number one seed, and in most years that simply would have not been the case. They were placed there based on the strength of the Pac-12 this season, but all the other Pac-12 teams failed to even reach the Sweet 16. The Ducks had just one out-of-conference game vs. a strong opponent in Baylor, and no wins vs. anyone left in the tournament. I think the Ducks get exposed here, so take Duke.
Ralph Michaels
Miami / Villanova Under 140
The Sweet 16 bring added pressure and many of the same shots taken when playing lesser competition in the first 2 rounds don't find the bottom of the net so easy. What also often happens in the first two rounds is that a team jumps out to a big lead and the opposition has to push the tempo while the team with the lead doesn't have the same intensity on defense. These teams are very good offensively but they also play at a slow tempo making multiple passes before a shot. In fact Kenpom.com has the Hurricanes ranked #277 in adjusted tempo with the Wildcats #257. I obviously believe these team match up well and this will be a very tight low scoring game.
Oklahoma -2
There's not much I need to write here. I have Oklahoma with the better offense, the better defense and with a better record versus a more difficult schedule. I also give the edge to the Sooners as in a tight game their main player , Bobby Hield (#2 NCAA scoring) will be playing at the next level while no one from A&M will and that is the player I want on my team in a pressure situation down the stretch.Lastly Oklahoma was in this same spot LY and can grow from a Sweet 16 loss while the Aggies were playing in the NIT with this experience new to them.
Ian Cameron
Dallas at Arizona
Play: Over 5.5
Even without the services of Tyler Seguin who remains out with an Achilles tendon injury, the potent and high powered Dallas Stars offense hasn’t really suffered in recent games. Dallas has registered 13 goals in its last three games -- two of those were without Seguin on the ice. They should feast on an Arizona Coyotes squad that has not stepped up well defensively against better teams. Dallas has scored at least three goals in each of the previous meetings against Arizona and should be poised for similar production tonight. However, Arizona should be able to contribute a few goals as well. The Coyotes were shutout in back-to-back games against Tampa Bay and San Jose. After those losses, head coach Dave Tippett bemoaned his team for not working hard enough to generate enough chances and scoring opportunities and the Coyotes responded positively as they scored four goals and fired 31 shots on goal in a 4-2 win against the Edmonton Oilers last time out. Goaltending is still a bit suspect on both sides with Arizona goalie Mike Smith still working his way back into form from a recent injury and Dallas goalie Kari Lehtonen still battling with his consistency. Both teams flew over the total in the lone previous meeting back in February; a 6-3 Arizona win. I expect a similar result tonight with enough goals from both squads to send this game up and over the total.
SPORTS WAGERS
Maryland +6½ over Kansas
The Jayhawks continue to roll and they continue to cover while doing so. The Rock Chalks are now 2-0 in the tournament against the spread after coming in off a 73-61 victory over UConn. Kansas did what they've done all year in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, quietly dousing the flames of Connecticut's upstart run into the tournament by beating the Huskies by 12 in the second round. The Jayhawks' remaining South Region opposition represents the chalk of the bracket, with 5 seed Maryland preceding a possible matchup with 2 seed Villanova or 3 seed Miami. Kansas' path to the Final Four isn't the easiest of the 1 seeds, but with an offense and defense ranked third and fourth, respectively among remaining teams in the field, they remain formidable favorites to reach the Final Four. This is a really good Jayhawks team but that does not change the fact that to back them you are paying a premium and that’s something we refuse to do.
If the Terrapins play a clean game they can absolutely win this one outright. To give you an idea of how tough the Terps can be, consider that they had 22 turnovers against North Carolina earlier this year and lost by just eight points. In last year’s tourney, Maryland had 23 turnovers against WVU and lost by just 10. When the Terps take care of the ball and play to their capabilities, they just might be the most talented team in the country. The Terps have a starting five loaded with recognizable names but seem to be missing the cohesiveness necessary to get past a team as solid and deep as Kansas in the Sweet 16. But any one of Melo Trimble, Rasheed Sulaimon, Jake Layman, Robert Carter, and Diamond Stone can be a really difficult individual matchup, giving the Terps enough firepower to keep marching if they can figure out the chemistry equation for any given 40 minutes. Now that the Terps have gotten over the hump of the first weekend, they may be more dangerous this round than they were in the first two. The Terps are playing with house money here, making these points very appealing indeed.
Duke +3½ over Oregon
Once again we are going to target the Ducks for the third time this tournament because the opposition they face gets better and better each round and we’re still not sold on the Ducks being a #1 seed.
The Ducks are 1-1 against the spread this far, covering against Holy Cross but failing to do so in their last game against the Hawks of St. Joe’s, as Oregon won by just five. As we have stressed previously, the Pac-12 was grossly overrated on Selection Sunday. Gonzaga’s recent rout of Utah, the last team from this conference to stand aside Oregon, is evidence that further backs up this preposition. Six of the seven Pac-12 teams that started this event were sent packing one at a time with only two of them surviving the round of 64 and just the Ducks surviving the first weekend.
By contrast, the ACC still has North Carolina, Virginia, Miami, Notre Dame and Syracuse remaining in the field. Remember, that does not include Louisville, who self-imposed a post-season ban. The ACC sent the same amount of representatives to the Dance as the Pac-12 but the ACC has five of seven remaining while the Pac-12’s reps mostly went down in the round of 64. That says a lot about who the Ducks were beating up on all year.
Duke has one of the best offenses in America, as they average 81.5 points per game and they are far better than Oregon at defending the three and also shooting the three. The Blue Devils boast a 21st ranked three-point field goal percentage, hitting 38.7% from beyond the arc. That does not bode well for Oregon, who does not defend well against the triple. Coach K is a master strategist that figures to exploit that weakness in the Ducks’ game. Duke's lack of depth, brought on by the absence of the injured Amile Jefferson, had made the Blue Devils a surprising afterthought for many when ranking the favorites to compete for a Final Four. However, we've got Duke ranked as the second-best overall team left in the West, meaning Coach K could very well be on his way to taking Duke back to the Final Four despite this being a "down" year.
Oregon survived a near-death experience against Saint Joseph's in the second round, coming from seven points down over the final five minutes to avoid being the first #1 seed bounced out of this year's tournament. We’re strongly suggesting that Oregon remains the 1 seed with the worst shot at reaching Houston, as we project them as underdogs against Duke and either Oklahoma or Texas A&M in a potential Elite Eight pairing. The Dukies are the better team from the much stronger conference and we're actually surprised to be getting points here. Yummy.
Texas A&M +2½ over Oklahoma
The Aggies brought attention onto themselves with one of the greatest and improbable comebacks in sports history. We’re not going to go over it because anyone reading this has seen, heard or read about it 10 times over. What we will point out is that the Aggies are supposed to be on the rail while Northern Iowa is still supposed to be dancing. In fact, The Aggies were all set to be a double-digit loser to the Panthers and that has their market value way down. Combine extreme luck (about 1000 things had to go perfectly for the Aggies to rally) with Northern Iowa’s low value and throw in the letdown factor after the Aggies impossible win and one can get a sense as to the number of angles that will be used to fade the Aggies in this one. Texas A&M was a 7-point choice over Northern Iowa but they were right in line to lose by 10 or more. We’re going to apply the “reverse angle” to all those popular fades for several reasons. One, Texas A&M is too good to be in the "just happy to be here" section.
A&M's reward for advancing will be a date with Buddy Hield, who's more than translated his regular season stardom to the big stage. The Aggies will throw a defense that is ranked 19th in the country at Buddy and the Sooners in what could be the most closely-matched game of the third round.With little expectation and a near-death experience, Texas A&M will likely come into this one very loose yet very determined. Like the Terps, the Aggies are playing with house money also.
One cannot talk about the Sooners without talking about Buddy Hield. The media and state of Oklahoma have put Heild on a pedestal. He’s the talk of the tournament and he’s deserving of it because he really is that good. This is a kid we’re talking about and kids are influenced by all that attention. Hield will carry the weight of expectation here and that means he’s going to go for the gold. He’s going to try and score as often as he can whenever he can because that’s what he’s there for and that’s what the media has put him up to. What’s so interesting is that the Sooners are much better when they have balanced scoring, which isn’t likely to happen here. In fact, Hield scored 30 or more points in nine games against Big 12 foes this season but the Sooners went just 4-5 straight up and a dismal 1-8 against the spread in those nine games. Hield netted 36 on Sunday against VCU, and once again, the Sooners failed to cash as 6-point favorites. There is a lot on Hield’s shoulders here. When he's gone off for 30+, the Sooners have not fared so well. If he has a really off night, the rest of the team might be lost waiting for him to heat up. Either way, The Aggies are primed to play their best game of the tournament and this team's best game is good enough to make this very uncomfortable for a Sooners team that has little balance.