SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +106 over BOSTON
Florida has lost two straight but they are still in the hunt for a division title. The Cats are three points up on the Bruins and should be motivated to widen that gap with a good effort. When these two teams played in Sunrise earlier this month, the Panthers were -113 home favorites so we find it very telling that they opened as a -115 favorite IN BOSTON. The last time these two played in Beantown was in December and the Bruins we're a -150 home favorite. It’s seems completely unreasonable that the oddsmakers would open this game with the Panthers favored and when we see something like that, our “trap” radar goes off.
The Bruins were the better team last night but that didn't matter as a couple of bad breaks left them on the wrong end of a 5-2 score versus the Rangers. The B's outshot the Blue Shirts 41-24 and anyone who watched that game would have to feel good about Boston's chances to rebound at home against the Panthers tonight. The Bruins opened as home dogs to Florida. How could that be? Since then, all the action has been on the Bruins. These odds makers don't slip up often and we’re pretty sure they didn’t slip up when they posted the Panthers as the chalk when it first opened. The linesmakers intentionally made the B’s very enticing here and the market has grabbed onto that dangling carrot.
The Bruins are reeling after four straight losses on the road and this is their first home game after a road trip that took them from coast to coast. The Bruins had been very lucky before their recent skid winning many games they were outplayed in. Luck evens out over time and now the Bruins are playing well but have nothing to show for it. It's all fun and games when you're not playing well but getting the breaks and winning games. The mood is much different when you're playing well but losing critical games late in the season. We would not be surprised if the Bruins are gripping their sticks a little tighter tonight, as the pressure mounts for them to snap out of this funk. If we’re reading this one correctly, the Panthers are supposed to win and so that’s how we’re playing it.
Carolina +121 over COLUMBUS
OT included. On Tuesday night the Jackets came in as a home dog versus the Flyers. Columbus fired away 53 shots on net against Steve Mason but still needed a miraculous comeback to steal that victory. The Jackets rallied from two down with four minutes left to send it into OT before they won it in a shootout. Nationwide was alive against Philly but it’s unlikely to be anywhere near as alive tonight against a team that does not attract much attention. Scalpers are likely to take the night off. The Jackets knew they were playing a team that was battling for a playoff spot. They played hard and they played to win. Combine that emotional win in front of a very lively crowd and the chances of a letdown here are high. We’re merely pointing out that possibility but it’s not the only reason for this choice.
Seven points separate the Flyers and the Hurricanes. Carolina has been nose-to-nose with the Flyers in the standing all year and have even been ahead of them for a portion of the season. In other words, Carolina and Philadelphia are absolutely comparable. Again, they have been neck and neck all year long yet the Flyers were a favorite in Columbus and the Hurricanes are not close to being favored two days later. That’s how value works. If Columbus was a +101 underdog against Philadelphia, they cannot be -136 to -140 against Carolina, especially after an emotional win. The Jackets figure to have less motivation here. Besides that, Sergei Bobrovsky is in goal for the Jackets and since his return from injury, Bobrovsky has been awful. In fact, the Jackets have one regulation win in seven games with Bobrovsky in net and now he and the Jackets are completely overvalued here. Based on value alone, this one is a must play.
SPS Investors
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma
Pick: Texas A&M
There is no question that the Texas A&M Aggies are fortunate to be in this particular spot. By now everyone has heard of the miraculous comeback that the Aggies pulled off against Northern Iowa in their Round of 32 matchup. There is no question that Texas A&M didn't play well for the first 39 minutes of that contest, however, when they needed it most, this team did what it took to make the improbable happen. There is no team more confident in their abilities at the moment than the Aggies and that is an extremely dangerous thing for the Sooners.
A big reason for the Aggies struggles against the Panthers in their last matchup was due to the fact that they were simply not playing to their strengths and resorted to taking too many outside shots. They went just 7 for 31 from beyond the arc in that contest which resulted in them falling behind on the scoreboard. They were somewhat fortunate that the Panthers are not a high powered offense, or they could have been blown right out of the gym and that is exactly what will happen if they try that against Oklahoma. The Aggies will have a distinct advantage on the inside in this contest as the Sooners do not really have a dominant inside presence. This will allow Tyler Davis to rule the paint and get some easy buckets. Alex Caruso has also been playing exceptionally well in this tournament and was instrumental in the Aggies come from behind victory against the Panthers. We expect him to use his skills to penetrate the lane, force the defense to collapse and find his big man early and often. That will be the key to the Aggies success in this matchup.
There is no question that Oklahoma's Buddy Hield will be the best player on the court in this contest. Hield is a dynamic playmaker that has the ability to hoist his team on his shoulders and comes up with clutch shots when his team needs it most. Even though Hield has been the epitome of consistency this season, the Oklahoma Sooners are directly tied to his performances. He scored 29 points in their victory over VCU to advance them to this point in the tournament, with 19 of those points coming in the final 7 minutes. Hield is no doubt the player who will be handling the ball for a majority of the contest, especially in the critical moment down the stretch. What many are not talking about, because Oklahoma won the game is the fact that Hield actually threw up two air balls in that contest on shots that were well disrupted by the Rams. The Aggies have been solid on the defensive side of the ball and if they can pressure Hield in those critical moments, it could throw him just slightly off his game. Given how Hield has dominated the final minutes of games this season, we expect the Aggies to double team him and force other players to step up and take the game into their own hands and we are not sure any other player is capable of making those tough shots under such intense pressure.
The perception of the Aggies has also changed given their performance in their most recent contest but let's not forget that this is still the same team who has gone 10-1 in their last 11 games, with their only loss during that stretch coming at the hands of Kentucky in overtime. There is no question that the Big 12 was a quality conference this season with numerous teams punching their tickets to the Big Dance and the Aggies went a perfect 4-0 this season against teams from the Big 12, holding wins over Kansas State, Texas, Iowa State and Baylor (3 of which were tournament teams this season). The Aggies are playing with "house money" at this point and should not only be the more confident team, but also the team who is likely to play a much more loosely style of basketball because they have nothing to lose. At this point in the tournament, the pressure really starts to mount and we believe the Aggies will be able to look past that and pull off the outright victory. In what should be a closely contested battle, we believe the points have a ton of value.
Don Anthony
Bulls vs. Knicks
Play: Bulls -4.5
As we saw last night, it is very tough to sweep a home-and-home series in the NBA. Atlanta and Portland got their revenge from losing the first game and I expect Chicago to do the same tonight. The Knicks have been awful against the number, going just 1-6, following a straight up win. They have also gone just 2-9 ATS their last 11 home games. Chicago also falls into a powerful system of road favorites coming off a loss with high totals.
Ray Monohan
Bulls vs. Knicks
Play: Bulls -4.5
A bounce back is in order for the Bulls as they look to rebound from an absolute abysmal performance against these same Knicks on Wednesday.
After picking up some serious steam, the Bulls laid an egg by allowing 115 points in a 115-107 home loss to Chicago.
The good news for them is they the chance to get immediate revenge which is a huge break for them. Chicago should expect Jimmy Butler to come back with a vengeance as well. Butler finished just 3 of 11 from the floor and looked sluggish all night. It's rare to see Butler struggle in 2 straight games, so expect him to really go off in this one.
Some trends to consider. Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Atlantic. Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 Thursday games.
This is a must win for Chicago. They've fallen back to out of the playoff picture with yesterday's loss and should have plenty of motivation here.
Brandon Lee
Blazers vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -4.5
I really like this spot for Los Angeles. The Clippers are going to be extremely motivated returning home after a miserable 1-4 road trip that saw them lose the last 3, including last night's 98-114 defeat at Golden State. Portland on the other hand was able to hold off Dallas for a 109-103 win at home last night. With both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, the advantage goes to the home team. The Clippers are 22-12 at home, while the Blazers are just 15-23 on the road with a 1-7 record over their last 8. LA has also had a significant edge in the last two meetings. They won 102-87 at home as a 7-point favorite and 109-98 as a 3.5-point road favorite in Portland. LA is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games after a road trip of 7 or more days and the Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win.
Jimmy Boyd
Bulls -4½
Chicago fell 107-115 at home to the Knicks last night as a 9-point favorite, which will scare some away from backing the Bulls as another decently priced favorite at New York tonight. The key here is that it's not easy beating the same team on consecutive nights. It's even harder when you are talking about a bad team like the Knicks who are out of the playoff race. That's not all. New York has a big game on deck Saturday against LeBron James and the Cavaliers, making this game that less important to them.
Chicago on the other hand, simply can't afford to lose to a team like the Knicks twice in a row. As of right now the Bulls are on the outside looking in for the 8th and final playoff spot in the east, 1-game back of both the Pacer and Pistons. Chicago had started to play better, as they had won 3 straight prior to last night's loss and a big reason for that is they are starting to get healthy again. I look for the Bulls to answer the call and put away the Knicks for the win and cover tonight.
Chicago is 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing a game as a home favorite, while the Knicks are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a home dog of 6 points or less and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win.
Jack Jones
Villanova -4
This isn't the same Villanova team that has been bounced early the last few years. In fact, it's completely a different team this year and one fully capable of winning the National Championship. The Wildcats simply do not have any weaknesses.
The Wildcats have absolutely rolled through the opposition thus far in the tournament. They beat UNC-Asheville by 30 as 17.5-point favorites, then made easy work of a good Iowa team by 19 points as 6-point favorites. This team is on a mission, and now they have the goods to make a deep run.
What makes this Villanova team different is that you can't guard them. They play two point guards for the majority of the game who can penetrate the lane and get easy buckets, or find wide open shots for teammates. And the Wildcats have been shooting lights out in the month of March (48% or better 7 of last 8 games) because they are getting such clean looks. That will continue against Miami tonight.
Miami struggled in a 7-point win over Buffalo as 14-point favorites, and actually needed a late surge to put away Wichita State by 8 last round. Angel Rodriquez has played two of his best games of the season, but now he'll be up against a Villanova team that will limit what he can do. After all, the Wildcats rank 1st in the country in scoring efficiency defense. They are vastly underrated on that end of the floor.
Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams who make 77% or better. The Wildcats are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Villanova is 34-16-2 ATS in its last 52 non-conference games.
Dave Price
Oklahoma Sooners -2
The Oklahoma Sooners are only 2-point favorites over the Texas A&M Aggies in the Sweet 16. We saw how vulnerable the Aggies were against Northern Iowa in a game they should have lost, and they stand little chance of competing against Oklahoma. The key here is that Oklahoma may have the best trio of guards in the country, and Texas A&M's weakness is at the guard positions, especially at point guard. Look for Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard to have their way with these overmatched Aggies' guards. The Sooners also have Ryan Spangler and Khadeem Lattin inside defensively to limit Tyler Davis, who is a great freshman post player for Texas A&M. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS after scoring 85 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
Bill Marzano
Miami vs Villanova
Play: Miami +4.5
I really like Miami + the points in this game vs Villanova...these are two very similar style teams and I expect this game could go either way...I thought this line should have been more like a pick 'em even though Nova is playing terrific...Miami has the talent and guard play to keep this one close, they are also deep and have a lot of athleticism...look for a low scoring game and Miami to cover the number...take the points
Harry Bondi
VILLANOVA -4.5 over Miami
What a run we have been on at Harry Bondi Sports and it continues tonight with a pair of NCAA winners on the Steam Team and a FREE winner for you on Villanova. Miami's two tournament wins have not been impressive. The struggled with a Buffalo squad they should have buried and caught a fatigued and tired Wichita State team that was playing it's third game, won play-in game, in 5 days. Meanwhile Villanova has destroyed its first two opponents, North Carolina-Ashville and Iowa. Wildcats have been one of the best teams in the nation all year and feature 4 starters that can all go for double digits. Villanova will also have a decided rebounding edge over Miami and have been money on the road this season going 16-4 ATS away from their home floor. Back the Cats!
Dave Price
Oklahoma Sooners -2
The Oklahoma Sooners are only 2-point favorites over the Texas A&M Aggies in the Sweet 16. We saw how vulnerable the Aggies were against Northern Iowa in a game they should have lost, and they stand little chance of competing against Oklahoma. The key here is that Oklahoma may have the best trio of guards in the country, and Texas A&M's weakness is at the guard positions, especially at point guard. Look for Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard to have their way with these overmatched Aggies' guards. The Sooners also have Ryan Spangler and Khadeem Lattin inside defensively to limit Tyler Davis, who is a great freshman post player for Texas A&M. The Aggies are 0-6 ATS after scoring 85 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
Scott Rickenbach
Duke vs. Oregon
Play: Duke +3½
Apparently the Blue Devils don't even need to bother showing up for this game. After all, the odds makers made them a 1.5 point dog but the line is all the way up to a 3.5 as of late morning Thursday because apparently they have no chance against the Ducks. All kidding aside, I do find it surprising that the whole world seems to be jumping on Oregon here. The Ducks are a #1 seed while the Blue Devils are a #4 seed but the odds makers don't make many mistakes. There was a reason this line was set as low as it was. One thing I like about Duke here is that they have played the tougher schedule this season. Just keep in mind that Oregon came from the Pac 12 and now look around and look at who is left from the Pac 12 or look at how those teams have performed in tourney action. Not impressive, is it? This is especially true when you compare it what the ACC has done in the Big Dance this year. Also, Oregon has a long-term mark of 2-5 ATS against ACC foes. Conversely, Duke is 8-1 SU (and 7-2 ATS) in NCAA Tourney games the past three seasons combined. The Blue Devils had a huge lead on Yale Saturday and then let it slip away in the second half. That is helping lead to even more line value here.
GoodFella
Bulls -4.5
I really like this Bulls team in this spot tonight. They are battling for a playoff spot while these Knicks are playing out the string of another poor season. I really expect a max effort game out of these scrappy Bulls this evening & I for sure can't trust that out of this Knicks club. I just do not see any way that the Bulls are not max motivated this evening. Bottom line for me here, is that I have the Bulls winning this game by at least 7 points after 48 minutes of play. I'm on the Bulls at this price and in this spot tonight.
Brad Wilton
Tonight we will see two things happen....# 1 - we will see the controversial # 1 seeded Ducks live up to their # 1 billing, and # 2 - we will see the defending champion Blue Devils be eliminated in their quest for back-to-back titles.
The Duckies, NOT the Dookies, are 6-2 against the spread over their last 8 games. Duke stands at 1-6 against the spread over their last 7 games. That one cover was in their last game against Yale in a game the Blue Devils actually led by 27-points before needing a pair of free throws with 8 seconds to go to cover the -6 point impost in their 7 point win.
Defense, defense, defense will be the difference in this meeting in Pac 12 country - Anaheim - as Oregon is allowing just 67.8 points per game in their last 5 games, while Duke is giving up 79.6 points per game over the same span.
Oregon is a strong 7-1 versus the number on neutral floors this season, while Duke stands at just 5-3 for the year.
Oregon to step up and play their best game of the tournament. Back the Ducks.
4* OREGON
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 31-20 runwith complimentary play: UT Arlington (-3',156) at NEW JERSEY TECH
The STORYLINE in this game today - Two teams you probably never thought you'd be invested in, right? We have the Texas-Arlington Mavericks heading to the northeast to play New Jersey Institute of Technology in the quarterfinals of the CollegeInsider.com Tournament. Interesting, right? Well, hey, since Baylor and Texas aren't around, and the only other team from Texas being A&M in the dance, why not look at the Mavs? But I won't lay the chalk with them, as they look to earn a school record 25th win of the season. Instead, let's play this one low, as I think they're in for a defensive battle with the Highlanders.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - NJIT is led by Damon Lynn and Tim Coleman, who’ve combined to drain 150 3-pointers this season. Lynn scored 31 points in Monday’s win over Boston University, and that is why I think UTA is going to look to stymie that perimeter game on the road. See, no team in the Sun Belt made more 3-pointers than Texas-Arlington, so the Mavericks are used to defending that type of game in practice. And usually, when you get two teams who like to fire long-range, you end up with a lower-than-expected battle because both teams want to stop the other.
BOTTOM LINE is - Okay, so from what I can see, the Mavs are about even in terms of over/under this year, with 17 of the 32 staying under. And in reality, looking at what these teams produce, I think the oddsmakers have overcompensated. Arlington is averaging 78.9 points per game and allows 70.1. NJIT averages 75.4 points per game, and gives up 74.6. That's an average of 149 points. Consider their home/away statuses, the average is 150 points per contest. And most recently, over their last five contests, things have tightened up, as the average would be 146 points. Combined, you're talking about 148.3 points. I'll take a shot with the low.
2* UNDER UT Arlington/New Jersey Tech