Free Picks for Thursday, March 2nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
MONTANA AT WEBER ST
PLAY: MONTANA +4.5
Montana-Weber State ought to be one of the better games of the night, even though it’s not high level stuff. The first meeting between these two went to overtime and neither team ever led by more than two possessions. I think we’ll see more of the same in the rematch.
It’s an important game for each school in terms of garnering a first round bye in the conference tournament, although Weber’s path to doing so is easier. The Wildcats skate through the opening round with a split of their final two games.
Montana is probably in trouble if they lose this game. They would then have to defeat Idaho State, which should be no problem, but the Grizzlies would then also need for both Idaho and Montana State to go 0-2 this week. A win here and they’re in great shape for a bye.
The Grizzlies have managed to do themselves some good by winning four of their last six. Weber has gone in the wrong direction, losing three straight, although in fairness the losses were to the other top teams in the league.
As for the matchup, Weber State shoots it far better than Montana. The Grizzlies are vastly superior on the glass. That said, in the first game between these two Weber won the board battle but Montana had a terrific shooting night from the outside.
I make this game a tossup and that means it’s one of those games where more than one possession on the betting line could be big. I’ll go with Montana and the points.
Andre Ramirez
Montana St vs. Idaho St
Play: Montana St -3
Montana State gave Idaho State a beating in late December. Idaho St is nursing a lot of injuries. Montana St has a lot of depth on the bench, and i like them by 13 points or more.
Rob Vinciletti
Montana St vs. Idaho St
Play: Montana St -3
The Bobcats are a small favorite here, but have solid support numbers. They are 7-2 off a conference win and have played well of late winning the last 4. They havecovered 10 of 14 on the road if the total is 150 to 155 and they are 6-1 vs teams who allow 77 or more like Idaho St. The Bengals are one of the worst teams in the country ranked d337 in the RPI Scale. They have lost 12 of 13 vs winning teams and are 1-5 ats in lined home games this season. Idaho St has failed to cover 4 of 5 with road loss revenge. Look for Montana St to get the cash tonight.
Sean Murphy
Maple Leafs vs. Kings
Play: Kings -150
We successfully went against the Leafs in their first game of this road trip on Tuesday night as they fell by a 3-1 score in San Jose. I look for them to run into some more trouble in Los Angeles on Thursday.
Toronto is just 13-11-7 on the road this season while the Kings check in 16-11-1 on home ice. The Leafs haven't won a game here in Los Angeles since March 2014.
The Leafs offense has run dry lately as they've scored only four goals over their last three contests - all losses. They won't find the sledding any easier in L.A. as the Kings are giving up just north of 2.5 goals per game at Staples Center.
L.A. has to realize the importance of this game. The Kings are in the thick of the Western Conference playoff chase and have only managed to pick up a single point in each of their last two games, falling in overtime in Calgary and Minnesota. They'll be determined to grab both points in this winnable contest.
Marc Lawrence
Golden St vs. Chicago
Play: Golden St -6½
Edges - Warriors: 7-1 ATS away on Thursdays; and 3-1 ATS following SU favorite loss when facing non-conference foes this season… Bulls: 0-3 SUATS last three games in this series; and 3-7 ATS home versus non-conference foes this season. With the Warriors 21-2 SU and 14-8-1 ATS overall in games following a SU favorite lass the last three seasons, we recommend a 1* play on Golden State.
Doc's Sports
Indiana State vs. Evansville
Play: Indiana State +1½
As for this play, it's time for a little Arch Madness. This game is the play-in game of the Missouri Valley Tournament and the beginning of the conference tournament season in full force. These two teams just played last Saturday and Evansville won 65-63. These two teams split their regular-season series with the games decided by a total of just three points. I expect another tight game in what is an under-the-radar rivalry in The Valley. And I'll go with the dog here as I think that they will get revenge for the thrashing they took in their tournament meeting last year. Evansville has only won off its home court twice this entire season. Indiana State has faced a tougher schedule this season, inside and out, and I think that they will get the win and advance.
Jesse Schule
Oklahoma City vs. Portland
Pick: Oklahoma City +1.5
The Thunder haven't been a great road team, and Portland does play much better at home. I'll take the visitors tonight though, as OKC comes in as winners of four straight, while the Blazers have dropped seven of their last nine. They have lost three straight at home, and this is the first game back after three games out East. Portland isn't going anywhere this year, sitting in the bottom of the Northwest Division, 10.5 games back of Oklahoma City. The Thunder are just a game and a half behind division leaders Utah, and it's a dog fight between the Clippers, Jazz, Thunder and Grizzlies for the fourth spot in the West. Only 1.5 games separate the four teams in the standings. The Blazers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing over 110 points per game. Russell Westbrook has triple-doubles in three straight games, and he's likely to make it four in a row tonight. "We want to get as high (in the standings) as we can," said Westbrook. "Homecourt advantage (in the playoffs) would be great." The visitors simply have a lot more reason to get up for this game.
Larry Ness
Charlotte vs. Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix +3.5
The 26-34 Charlotte Hornets are hoping to get back into the playoff field with two stops remaining on a seven-game road trip that began before the All Star break (Charlotte is currently 2 1/2 games back of the No. 8 seed). The Hornets are in Phoenix tonight to take on the 18-42 Suns, owners of the West's worst record (Lakers are 19-42). Charlotte's won two of their last three and need to take advantage of "winnable" games tonight in Phoenix and Saturday night in Denver.
Kemba Walker (22.8-4.1-5.4) led the way with 30 points in Tuesday's 109-104 win over the Lakers, his third 30-plus effort in four games since the break. Also notable in the victory was the return of center Cody Zeller, who played 18 minutes off the bench and contributed six points and five rebounds, after sitting out 13 of the previous 14 games with a quad injury. Zeller averages a modest 10.7 PPG and 6.5 RPG but is it just a coincidence that the Hornets were 2-11 in the 13 games recent games he had missed or that when he's not played this year, Charlotte is just 3-17? The win over the Lakers made the Hornets 23-17 in games in which Zeller has played this season. The fly in the ointment is, Zeller's replacement, Frank Kaminsky, has been one of the hottest players in the league in recent weeks. Kaminsky had 24 points and 12 rebounds Tuesday against the Lakers, increasing his averages to 19.9 points and 7.8 rebounds in his last 10 games.
The Suns come in off a sad effort the last time out, losing 130-112 at the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. It marked the third time in the last 10 games they had surrendered at least 130 points. Only the Nets (114.2) allow more PPG than the Suns' average of 112.8. The loss at Memphis capped a winless three-game trip (Chicago and Milwaukee were the other stops), as well as a 3-9 February. However, the trip featured a new look for the Suns, who benched veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight, and gave youngsters Alan Williams, Tyler Ulis and Derrick Jones Jr. increased playing time. Williams, for one, has taken advantage. He recorded career highs in two consecutive games,16 points at Chicago, then 17 points at Milwaukee, while averaging 14.7 points and 7.0 rebounds on the trip.
In the end the Suns depend on their youthful but extremely talented guard combo of Bledsoe (21.3-5.0-6.4) and Booker (20.9). Yes, the Hornets have won two of three but that makes them just 3-13 over their last 16! No way I'm playing them as a road favorite.
Jim Feist
California at Utah
Pick: Under
A pair of powerhouse Pac 12 defensive teams clash. Cal is on a 4-1 run under the total, #11 in the Pac 12 in scoring, but tops in points allowed. Utah is #11 in free throw shooting but #5 in field goal shooting defense. The Under is 3-1-1 in Utes last 5 home games.
Wunderdog
North Florida @ Lipscomb
Pick: Lipscomb -8
Lipscomb is 20-12 compared to 14-18 for North Florida, however, the Bison is in double revenge after losing both meetings to the Ospreys this season. North Florida shot 61.1 percent in its most recent win over the Bison even though it shoots just 44.0 percent on the season. Lipscomb has won nine of its last 10 games, including 97-66 over NJIT in the opening round of the Atlantic Sun tournament while shooting 61.3 percent and holding the Highlanders to 40.7 percent. Garrison Matthews poured in 30 points and Rob Marberry added 14 points and eight rebounds. North Florida comes off a 77-74 win over Jacksonville as Dallas Moore was a one-man show, scoring 37 points with no other player scoring in double digits for the Ospreys.
Robert Ferringo
Indiana State (+1.5) over Evansville
It's time for a little Arch Madness. This game is the play-in game of the Missouri Valley Tournament and the beginning of the conference tournament season in full force. These two teams just played last Saturday and Evansville won 65-63. These two teams split their regular-season series with the games decided by a total of just three points. I expect another tight game in what is an under-the-radar rivalry in The Valley. And I'll go with the dog here as I think that they will get revenge for the thrashing they took in their tournament meeting last year. Evansville has only won off its home court twice this entire season. Indiana State has faced a tougher schedule this season, inside and out, and I think that they will get the win and advance.
Vernon Croy
Charlotte / Phoenix Over 219
I have this game flying over the total Thursday night given the style of play by these two teams. The Suns have allowed the second most points per game in the NBA this season with opponents averaging 112.5 ppg against them. The Suns are also a very potent offensive team, averaging 107 ppg this season and they are the 8th best offensive rebounding team in the NBA. The Suns opponents have shot a league's best 38.9% against them from beyond the arc this season and Charlotte is a very good 3-point shooting team who just shot 45% from long range against the Clippers this past Sunday. Charlotte's opponents have been averaging 106.5 ppg against them on the road this season and they are the 3rd best free-throw shooting team in the NBA, knocking down 81.2% from the line this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida -107 over PHILADELPHIA
OT Included. This is without question one of the biggest games of the night, as both teams are in it with only three points separating them. However, a month ago the Flyers were in a much better position than the Panthers but failed to distance themselves from anyone. Philadelphia has three wins over its past 10 games with two of those victories occurring against Vancouver and Colorado. Over their last 17 games, Philly has scored one goal or less nine times and two goals or less 13 times. The Flyers turned to Steve Mason last time out and then went on to defeat the Avalanche 4-0. Coming off a shutout, Mason gets the call here again and that is pure sweetness because not many goaltenders are worse, as his .903 save percentage will attest to. Philly may look appealing at home here in an evenly priced game but a deep look into the numbers reveal that the Panthers are superior in every way. That includes current form.
Thomas Vanek was the first player on the ice for the Panthers in this morning’s skate around. He joins a slew of other snipers to form a formidable offense that features some of the best talent in the game. Vanek just adds another dimension to a team that is going to be difficult to defend. The Panthers have won nine of 13 to reside one point behind Toronto in the race for the second Wild-Card spot in the Eastern Conference. Vanek’s 38 points match Aleksander Barkov for second-best on the Panthers, with the latter joining Jonathan Huberdeau with 11 in their last 11 games. Had Huberdeau and Barkov played a full season, they would be among the league leaders in production. The Panthers are 0-2 against Philadelphia this season but the last time they saw one another was way back on December 6. This is a much different and more powerful Panthers squad than the last one the Flyers saw and frankly speaking, we can’t find one good reason to get behind the inferior team here.
N.Y. Rangers +144 over BOSTON
The Bruins are one of the hottest teams in the NHL. Since firing head coach Claude Julien, Boston has ripped off four wins in its last five games. If you add the three wins the Bruins had going into the bye, Boston has won seven of its last eight. The Bruins are now in the thick of things in the Atlantic division but their recent success has their stock at a season high. Boston is scoring in bunches too by putting up four goals or more in three straight and in six of its last eight. A closer look however, shows that the B's dominance has come at the expense of some of the league's weakest clubs. Two of those teams, Arizona and Dallas give up the most shots in the NHL. Against that pair, Boston only managed to fire away 25 and 28 shots on net respectively. Boston is winning games but danger signs are present everywhere. Boston's inability to stay out of the box after taking 12 penalties in its last four games is going to come back to bite them soon enough. Contrarily and against two of the weaker defensive teams in the league (Dallas and Arizona), the B’s have drawn a mere five minors in its last three games combined. The B's are 1-3 this season in their second game back after a road trip of three games or more. And they just returned home to defeat Arizona. Boston's only win in this spot this year came over Buffalo in November. The last time the Bruins were in this spot (second game back after a trip) the dropped a 4-0 decision to the Islanders. Yes indeed the Bruins are winning game but the many flaws are hidden because that’s what W’s do. We now get a sweet price on a team that can score goals with the best of them.
New York made an under the radar pickup on trade deadline day by adding defenseman Brendan Smith from the Red Wings. The Rangers have an elite selection of forwards but have had trouble getting the puck out and getting them the puck. Smith should help shore things up on the back end. What this market sees is Boston hot and the Rags losing two in a row. However, New York’s two losses were to Washington and Columbus. Prior to that, New York had won nine of 11 including victories over Nashville, Toronto, Calgary, Anaheim and Washington. Let’s not ignore that despite losing the Rags were -120 over Columbus and opened as a favorite against Washington. Two losses later to the two best teams in the East and they go from a -120 favorite over the Jackets to +144 or more against Boston? That’s so ridiculous and it’s all because the market puts way more emphasis on results than performances. Huge overlay here.
Colorado +192 over OTTAWA
OT included. Ottawa returns home from a four-game trip here in which it went 2-2 but failed to score more than two goals in any of those games. In fact, the Sens have now scored two or less in five straight and have allowed 44, 38 and 38 shots on net in their last three. Coming home from a four-game trip that included the last two in sunny Florida, Ottawa is in big danger of overlooking the Avalanche here in anticipation of its big home game against Columbus on Saturday night’s Hockey Night in Canada. Aside from being in a difficult spot, the Sens aren’t good enough to be a 2-1 or better favorite over anyone and that includes the Avalanche.
Have you ever been to Colorado? Anyone that ever has, loved it. Anyone that lives there wants to stay there so even though the Avalanche are in the midst of an abhorrent season, none of the players wanted to uproot their families and move elsewhere. Losing Jerome Iginla opens the door for a quicker and more effective player. The dust has settled and Landeskog, MacKinnon and Duchene are all still intact. Aside from those three great talents, the Avalanche also have Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen, Fedor Tyutin, John Mitchell and several other proven NHLers. Joe Colborne is starting to get minutes again and he’s looking better with each passing game. The point is that Colorado should be better. They have scored a measly and almost unbelievable 121 goals in 61 games this year, which has to improve because of the talent on the roster. Their puck luck has been awful but now that the pressure is off and the trade deadline has come and gone, Colorado can just play hockey and compete. The Avs are coming off a 4-0 loss to Philly in which they were the better team but three early PP goals against did them in. They are not going to just lie down and mail it in the rest of the way and the players have to be feeling pretty good (and thankful) that management did not panic at the deadline. This is the thank you response game and now they’re in a favorable and very sneaky spot to pull off an unsuspecting upset.
Toronto +144 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. Yesterday was not a good day for Kings GM Dean Lombardi. It wasn’t a good week either. First, he couldn’t unload Marian Gaborik’s (dude is on the fourth line now) $4.8M that he’ll earn until 2021. Secondly, Steve Yzerman miraculously sucked him into taking Ben Bishop’s contract PLUS Yzerman got a backup in return, not to mention a d-man in Erik Cernak. The Jerome Iginla move (for a fourth round pick) adds nothing to this already aging and dull lineup except another aging and dull player. The Kings moved out Dwight King to make room for Iginla, which was another curious move since King is 27-years old and he brings more than Iginla with his size, net presence and more. King had 23 points this season playing for a team that cannot score while Iginla has 18 points playing for a team that has to score. The Kings regression continues.
What we have here is two teams headed in opposite directions. Most “experts” have suggested that the Kings have one final push in them to make the playoffs and if that is the case, it’ll be because the Blues will continue their horrible slide and not because Los Angeles is going to win a bunch of games. The Kings are not capable of winning a bunch of games in a row on the square. They’ll win because of their hard work and experience and not because of their talent. Winning three out of four or six out of seven is extremely unlikely to happen because L.A. is offensively challenged and its goaltending is very beatable. Jonathan Quick is the most overrated goaltender in the game that is 15 steps behind everyone else.
The Maple Leafs are hearing footsteps and we’re pretty sure that Mike Babcock was steamed up over the way his team came out in the first period against the Sharks on Tuesday. The period ended with San Jose and Toronto being scoreless but Toronto was fortunate to not be down three goals. The Leafs would end up losing 3-1 and now the Maple Leafs are trying to fend off four teams from taking that final Wild Card spot them. Four teams (Islanders, Panthers, Lightning and Flyers) are within four points of Toronto and two teams are behind by just one point. The good news is that the Maple Leafs are healthy again. Mitch Marner is a difference maker. Tyler Bozak and now Brian Boyle gives them some depth up the middle and Fredrick Andersen has been solid and reliable almost all year long. Toronto figures to be focused and hungry and as long as they play a smart game, Los Angeles on its best day cannot keep up with the Maple Leafs speed or talent. Nice overlay here.
Dave Essler
Niagara -120
Quinnipiac beat Niagra twice this season - the third time should be the charm for the Purple. Q will probably be without Reggie Oliver again (personal/death in the family) leaving them shorthanded with two Freshman running the show. Granted, the Freshman (Kiss and Dixon) are good players - but they've played a ton of minutes and they're a year removed from playing far less game in HS. Niagra can play the pace Q will want - they are very good from behind the arc and Q cannot defend the perimeter - Niagra is an excellent FT shooting team - with a much better defense. I will take my chances with both an afternoon game and a small conference