Teddy Covers
Oklahoma City -1
There’s no comparison between the Thunder and the Trail Blazers right now, making this short -1 pointspread look very attractive to this bettor!
Portland is in a world of hurt. The Blazers are returning home off a losing road trip that culminated in another fourth quarter turnover fueled meltdown and subsequent OT loss at Detroit. They haven’t won a home game since January, losing each of their last three games on this floor both SU and ATS. And the quotes coming out of Terry Stotts locker room aren’t exactly reeking with confidence these days.
Damian Lillard: “We're frustrated. We played a good game outside of turnovers. We feel like we should have won the game. We should be happy going on this flight (to Portland) with a 'W' and a 2-1 trip, but we're not. That's disappointing.” Portland will be hard pressed to match their 52% shooting effort that they put up against the Pistons. And the Blazers weakness in the paint is a real problem against a team like OKC.
Don’t confuse the Thunder in March from the Thunder in January or February. This team went through the gauntlet, schedule wise, dealing with a ridiculous stretch of 23 consecutive games with a court change in December and January. Then the injury bug hit, with Victor Oladipo and Enes Kanter both off the court for extended stretches in February.
That was then, this is now! The Thunder are at close to full strength, whether Oladipo suits up tonight or not. The trading deadline deal to bring in Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott from Chicago helped a lot, shoring up their low post defense and giving them another rock solid perimeter shooter. Alex Abrines has taken advantage of Oladipo’s absence, playing the best ball of his career right now. They just signed Norris Cole to back up Russel Westbrook at the point, a strong addition. All of a sudden, this team is deep, and loaded!
OKC is 3-0 SU and ATS since the All Star Break, surging right now. They have vastly superior defensive and rebounding numbers compared to the Blazers, and, quite frankly, they are the better of these two teams by a fairly wide margin. The markets are pricing Portland like it’s ‘Circle the Wagons’ time, but I’m not convinced the Blazers still have that in their repertoire.
Brad Wilton
Cincinnati was just held to 49 points over the weekend in their road loss at Central Florida, but they are back at home where they haven't lost this season - 17-0 straight up! - but just 8-7 against the spread in their lined home games.
Chances look strong for Mick Cronin's team to notch another home win, but I am not so sure they are going to run away and hide from Kelvin Sampson's Cougars who stand at 20-8 and could use a "signature" road win to beef up their at-large resume.
Houston has covered 4 of the last 7 in this series, but did lose to Cincinnati back on January 7th by 9-points at home to the Bearcats.
The Cougars enter with 7 wins in their last 8 games straight up, and I like them to make a game of things tonight in the Queen City.
Back and forth we go in the AAC battle, as the points work with the underdog Cougars.
2* HOUSTON
Jack Brayman
Lost my free play last night on Utah State, as the UNLV Runnin' Rebels snapped their nine-game losing streak. Tonight I head to my territory, as I'm in the Big 10.
My free play for tonight is on the 22nd-ranked Wisconsin Badgers, minus the points at home against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Wisconsin (22-7, 11-5 Big Ten) has lost only one game out of 15 on its home court this season.
Tonight there will be a rugged atmosphere for an Iowa team that has won two straight games, but certainly will be stepping up to superior competition. The Hawkeyes (16-13, 8-8 ) come in after an impressive 83-69 road victory at then-No. 24 Maryland last Saturday, so a letdown could be in their future.
Several things need to occur for the Badgers to clinch a share of the Big Ten title with Purdue, but it starts with Wisconsin needing to win its final two games.
Take the Badgers here.
2* WISCONSIN
Chris Jordan
I lost last night with Fordham on the Moneyline. Tonight I'm playing another moneyline play, this time on UT San Antonio over Charlotte. I don't care about the juice, honestly, and with baseball around the corner, get used to these numbers.
Both are 12-win teams, but UT San Antonio is 10-2 at home this season, while the 49ers are 2-10 away from home, including a miserable 2-8 in true road games.
What does it for me is how these scoring defenses match up tonight.
Charlotte allows 80.6 points per game, while the Roadrunners allow 69.6. It gets worse in their respective roles tonight, as Charlotte gives up 84.6 on the highway, while UT San Antonio is giving up a paltry 59.9 at home.
These two meet just once a year, and the last two years Charlotte has come out on top. Look for the Roadrunners to exact double-revenge in this one tonight.
2* UT SAN ANTONIO ML
STEVE JANUS
UCF vs. South Florida
Play: UCF -11
Play Against - Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (S FLORIDA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points against opponent off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog. This system is 28-7 (80%) against the spread since 1997.
MIKE ANTHONY
Warriors / Bulls Under 219.5
I can see the Bulls and Warriors are headed toward clipping the Under by about 10 points on the total of 219.5 when they meet Thursday night in the windy city. Golden State will lack some firepower without injured star Kevin Durant, while the Bulls must rely on a respectable defense that allows 103.4 points per game (No. 7 in the NBA) to stay competitive in the game. Look for a slow pace and this game to stay UNDER the posted number.
Stephen Nover
Islanders +110
Dallas is having a down season, was a seller at the trade deadline and is a miserable 6-22 following a victory.
The Islanders were 12-4-2 before losing 7-0 to the Blue Jackets in their last game. They've had five days to stew about that game. I see the Islanders being more than ready in this matchup. They have played well against Western Conference teams going 11-2-3.
Jeffrey James
Canucks / Sharks Under 5
Love this under here since both the Sharks and the Canucks are under machines in division games. San Jose is 1-7 to the under in non-pushes while Vancouver is 3-11 to the under in divisional games. Also the Sharks are 2-9 to the under when playing off of 3 straight unders. The Sharks defense is very strong while the Canucks offense is lousy - look for this one to go under all day long.
Nelly
Cal-Santa Barbara + over CS-Fullerton
After contending in the Big West last season with an 11-5 conference season Cal-Santa Barbara has suffered a hard fall this season at just 5-21 overall. The non-conference slate was brutally tough but after a 1-10 league start the Gauchos have won two of the last three games. This game at Fullerton should be a reasonable opportunity and having lost by 26 in this matchup at home, focus should be high tonight. The Titans are a respectable 8-6 and tied for third place in a down season for the Big West. After four wins in a row the Titans lost in overtime at Hawai'i last weekend making this a challenging scheduling set-up back at home. In the blowout road win at Santa Barbara Fullerton shot 50 percent while the host shot 35 percent. The conference data suggests that these teams are not actually that far apart offensively and home court has been fairly meaningless this season in the Big West with a 37-28 S/U record for hosting teams with the league as a whole falling from the 13th rated conference in the nation last season to the 29th ranked conference this season as laying this many points with a mediocre Titans team looks rather risky. The Gauchos are led by a pair of promising freshmen after losing key players to injury this year and improvement has been clear in the recent outings. Fullerton hasn't won any of its home games in Big West play by more than 10 points.