Free Picks for Thursday, March 30th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
SHARKS VS. OILERS
PLAY: SHARKS +115
I like the fact the Sharks snapped their slump and found some offense in the process in their rally to top the Rangers on Tuesday night. This San Jose team needed a momentum building win and I won’t be at all surprised if the Sharks now put together a bit of a surge.
As for Edmonton, this is still a big game as far as the divisional race is concerned. But it’s also the first game for the Oilers since clinching their first playoff entry in a decade. That makes this game potential letdown material. I’m certainly not going ot shocked if that’s not the case as this is a well coached team and this is an important game. However, I can make a better case for San Jose and the underdog price is somewhat of an added attraction. I’ll go with the Sharks for the Thursday night free play.
Ray Monohan
Rockets vs. Blazers
Play: Rockets +1
This play just missed out on our Premium Card. The Houston Rockets will try to rebound from a loss against the Golden State Warriors when they play the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Trail Blazers come into this game hot, which is why the line is so close but don't let that fool you with the talent on both teams.
The Trail Blazers can put up a lot of points, but they can't put up the points like the Rockets can. At this close of spread there is a ton of value.
Some trends to note. Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last ten vs. NBA Southwest. Road team is 11-5 ATS in last 16 match ups.
This spread should be a little more for the Rockets.
Jim Feist
Islanders vs. Flyers
Play: Flyers -125
New York is stumbling down the stretch, on a 3-6 run. The defense has been a problem all year, #26 in goals allowed. Philadelphia is home on a two-game win streak, on a 5-1 run at home. The Flyers are 12-3 in their last 15 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. And the Islanders are 13-39 in the last 52 meetings, including 7-19 at Philly.
Jesse Schule
Panthers vs. Canadiens
Play: Canadiens -161
The Florida Panthers have lost 13 of their last 18 overall, and they play on the road in their third game in four nights at Montreal tonight. Florida is banged up, with injuries to starting goaltender Roberto Luongo, top defenseman Aaron Ekblad and backup goaltender James Reimer. It's not clear who will start between the pipes for the Panthers tonight, but it's thought that Luongo may be ready to return to action. The Habs are gearing up for a long playoff run, and they've won 11 of their last 14 overall. Carey Price has looked like the best goalie in the world here in March, with a record of 8-2 and a 1.59 GAA. I picked Montreal to win the Stanley Cup at 25-1 odds before the season started, and I am feeling pretty good about that bet heading into the playoffs. I had high expectations for Alexander Radulov, and he's been a beast all year. The Habs are going to be a tough opponent for anybody at this time of year, and the Panthers are a team that likely doesn't have a lot of gas left in the tank.
Teddy Davis
Lakers vs. Wolves
Play:Wolves -10½
If you want evidence of a tanking team look for further than the Lakers. Wow, they are making it clear they want and need the top 3 pick. This team was up 16 on the Wizards late in the 3rd and not only failed to win, but failed to even cover as 9.5 point underdogs. That is amazing when you think about it. While the T Wolves have nothing to play for either they are still showing life as they went on the road last game and beat the Pacers. I didn't see that coming from them at all. If the Lakers show zero interest on their home court I can't imagine how poorly their effort level will be here tonight!
TJ Masterline
Brooklyn vs. Detroit
Play: Under 212.5
Besides our premium NHL Total play tonight, we see other advantage plays. We absolutely love this total tonight in Detroit. Here are some stats that back up our play: Under is 4-0 in Nets last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 overall. Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 4-1 in Nets last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 6-2 in Nets last 8 Thursday games. Under is 3-1-1 in Nets last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Pistons last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 7-0 in Pistons last 7 home games. Under is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic. Under is 7-1 in Pistons last 8 overall. Under is 7-1 in Pistons last 8 games following a straight up loss. Under is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Pistons last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 16-5 in Pistons last 21 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Pistons last 7 games following a ATS win.
Larry Ness
Lakers vs. Wolves
Play:Wolves
The Lakers have lost 16 of 18 but still can't shake the Suns. LA is 21-53 but Phoenix is 22-53, as the two teams 'race to the bottom' of the Western Conference standings. The Lakers have already lost 50 games for the fourth straight season and a third straight 60-loss is surely possible. Actually, it's hard NOT to conclude that the Lakers are hoping for a 60-loss season, as the more ping pong balls the better. LA only keeps its No. 1 draft pick in 2017 if it owns a top-three selection.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are among the NBA's most disappointing teams this season. It's more than fair to ask, how can a team featuring two players like Anthony-Towns (24.6-12.1) and Wiggins (23.0-4.0) plus SG La Vine (18.9), PG Ricky Rubio (10.5-8.9 APG) and PGF Dieng (10.0-7.8 ) actually be 15 games under . 500? However, the T-wolves check in at 29-44 after snapping a six-game losing streak with their 115-114 win at Indiana on Tuesday. Towns had 37 points and 12 rebounds in that win, his 14th double-double in the past 17 games. Ricky Rubio had 21 points and 10 assists against the Pacers, giving him averages of 18.7 points and 9.7 assists over the past three games.
The Lakers had a recent history of beating the T-wolves in Minnesota but have lost two in a row at the Target Center, after winning 12 of their previous 14 visits. No reason to think LA even wants to win here, so I'll lay the points.
Andrew Lange
Arizona Diamondbacks Over 77.5 Wins
Heading into last season, the Arizona Diamondbacks had to look of a team ready to contend in the National League West. Following 2015's somewhat promising 79-win campaign, they went for it by bringing in a host of big name free agents -- Zack Greinke, Tyler Clippard, Shelby Miller, and Jean Segura. Expectations were fairly high with their season over/under wins lined at 81.5. The end result though was a disaster. Greinke regressed in a big way. Clippard and Miller underachieved. AJ Pollock played in only 12 games. The defense was awful. And by July it was clear the season was a wash.
This year, expectations are a bit more moderate. For starters, the front office -- which was one of the worst in MLB -- was gutted. Getting rid of GM Dave Stewart was arguably the best offseason decision the organization made. The new regime has already placed an emphasis on analytics, something Stewart had no clue about. And while this isn't going to be a quick fix situation, there are enough pieces already in place for this team to be competitive.
Last year's starting staff had the highest ERA in the National League (5.19) and the bullpen wasn't much better (4.94). As mentioned, Greinke and Miller both had their worst seasons of their careers. The same could be said for Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray. Those four pitchers combined for a 3.01 ERA in 2015. Last year, they were over two runs worse at 5.04. The good news is, the foursome, as well as newly acquired Taijuan Walker, should improve. Scouts have raved about Miller this spring. Corbin and Ray are still young and with the potential to be solid middle-of-the-rotation arms. Walker had perhaps too high of expectations placed on him in Seattle but at only 24-years-old, remains capable of being an ace in the National League. Greinke is a bit of a wild card. His odometer reads over 2,200 career innings and reports in the spring indicate his velocity is lacking. His days of bonafide ace are behind him but I still expect him to perform at an above league average level.
There are concerns however. Defensively, even with Pollack back, it's a below average unit. The bullpen also has major questions, especially with Fernando Rodney slated to close out games. And rather than "going for it" the front office appears focused on cleaning up the mess so there's the potential to cut bait late in the season. That said, I like the fact that a majority of Arizona's key players are either approaching or in their prime. If the starting staff as whole can post somewhere in between 2015 and 2016's numbers, there's a decent chance this team sticks around and finishes. 500 or better.
Wunderdog
Ottawa vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -145
Ottawa is a weak offensive team and has lost six of eight. Ottawa is #21 in the NHL in goals scored, and #22 on the power play. It's their third straight road game, losing the first two, and the offense has tallied just 14 goals the last eight games. Minnesota is a talented team that is not in a good mood, in an angry, late season slump. The Wild is third in goals scored, eighth in goals allowed, and #11 on the power play. Minnesota is 9-4 after allowing five goals or more in their previous game and this is a great spot for the home team to bust out of their slump.
Joe Williams
Lakers at T'wolves
Play: Lakers +11
The Lakers are 10-3 ATS in the past 13 trips to Minneapolis, and they're 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings overall in this series. The underdog is also 4-1 in the past five. Neither side has been particularly attractive against the number lately, but Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in their past seven overall and 0-5 ATS in their past five against losing teams. As such, as double-digit favorites they're laying a few too many points.
Brandon Lee
Georgia Tech +4
The Yellow Jackets are worth a look here at this price, as I actually think they win this game outright. Georgia Tech has been one of the big surprises this season, as there were some who thought they would struggle to win a single game in the ACC. First year head coach Josh Pastner has done a remarkable job. He's got this team playing with a ton of confidence and playing exceptional defense. In fact, you could argue that this is the best defense TCU will have faced all season. So much is made of the Yellow Jacket's limitations on offense, but they have now scored 70+ points in 4 straight games. Georgia Tech is 26-16 ATS in their last 42 as an underdog and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days this season (defensive energy is at full strength).
John Martin
Los Angeles Clippers -9.5
The Phoenix Suns are just trying to get the best pick possible in the NBA Draft at this point. They have so many injuries that they're just simply resting their star players. They are without Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight and Tyson Chandler, and they could be without Devin Booker and Leandro Barbosa again tonight. The Suns are 0-9 in their last nine games with five of their last six losses coming by double-digits. The Clippers are still trying to get home-court advantage in the first round, so they won't be taking the Suns lightly. And the Clippers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with the Suns this season, winning all three by 10 points or more.
Dave Price
Georgia Tech/TCU Under 134
Both Georgia Tech and TCU have made it to the Championship Game thanks to their defense. The Yellow Jackets have allowed 66 or fewer points in all 4 NIT games, and 66 or fewer in 7 of their last 8 games overall coming in. The Horned Frogs have yielded 68 or fewer in 3 of their 4 NIT games, including 59 to Fresno and 53 to UCF. I think defense will reign supreme in this title game tonight as this total goes well UNDER 134. The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Yellow Jackets last 26 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. The UNDER is 13-5 in Yellow Jackets last 18 non-conference games. The UNDER is 8-2 in Horned Frogs last 10 neutral site games as a favorite. The UNDER is 22-10 in Horned Frogs last 32 non-conference games.
Doc's Sports
Cavaliers vs. Bulls
Play: Bulls +6
The Bulls have owned the Cavs recently and they are 3-0 both SU and ATS against them this season. The Cavs have had a couple nights off heading into this one but we don’t think it will matter. This team has lost three of its last four and all were double-digit blowouts. There isn’t much doubt that this team will shift into another gear once the playoff starts but things are not right with this squad right now in the stretch run of the NBA regular season. LeBron James is banged up and left the Cavs near-30-point loss to the Spurs last time out. Chicago has now won 18 straight TNT games on Thursdays, and they always get up for these matchups. They have also covered in six of their last eight matchups.