Free Picks forThursday, March 9th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Spreitzer
Spurs vs. Thunder
Play: Spurs -3
What a difference a year makes. When OKC won the final three games of the playoff series against San Antonio last season, Kevin Durant scored a combined 101 points, for an average of nearly 34 ppg. And with KD on the floor, Russell Westbrook averaged 26 ppg, 7 rpg, and 12 apg in the same three games. Obviously, the on-court symmetry between the two is a huge missing part for this team with KD playing (sidelined) in the bay area. Westbrook is putting up phenomenal numbers, but the team is not at the level it once was. Add in the fact that not only did the Spurs whip OKC 118-104 earlier this season, but Pop rested Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge on Wednesday, which signals to us that he's probably "going for it" on Thursday. The two combined for 61 points and 14 rebounds in the January win over OKC and we expect another wide margin victory tonight. The chalk is 23-9-1 ATS in this series and the Thunder have dropped four in a row SU & ATS, overall, allowing 115.5 ppg on 50.7% shooting. Westbrook has made just 14 of 47, 29.8% of his 3-pointers during the skid and his team has made just 32 of 111, 28.8% of their 3's in those games, overall.
Ray Monohan
Creighton vs. Providence
Play: Creighton -2
The Bluejays take on Providence Thursday night and the Jays have value with this small number. Creighton's offense is a really dangerous one.
The Bluejays have averaged 83 points per game this season, which is just so tough for teams to keep up with Creighton can shoot the 3 extremely well, but also really can dominate the inside game.
Look for them here to really push the tempo and take Providence out of their comfort zone.
Some trends to note. Bluejays are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS loss. Bluejays are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up loss.
Situationally this is a nice spot for Creighton. With this low of a number, they are worth a move.
Kevin Thomas
Tennessee vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -1½
Tennessee (16-15) had high hopes started strong with a win over Kentucky and then it was down hill from there. Georgia (18-13) has been in close games all season and are 2-1 last 3 against Tennessee. Georgia won the last meeting by 1 in Tennessee and we like them to win this one on a neutral court.
Rob Vinciletti
Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Under 131
Both teams have struggled to score and have been inept offensively of late. Vandy has gone under in 4 of the last 5 and 12 of 13 off a win. In neutral court games the Commodores are 6 of 8 under if the total is 130 to 135. Texas A@M has stayed under in the last 3 and all 3 times with road loss revenge. In games as a neutral court underdog they have 8 of 11 ti the under and 7 of 10 vs winning teams. this should be a close lower scoring game.
Doc's Sports
Oklahoma St vs. Iowa St
Play: Iowa St Pk
I am going with the Cyclones. They beat Oklahoma State the first two times they played this year. I think they will get the sweep. I think that Oklahoma State is overrated. This team was favored over Kansas on Saturday at home and they lost easily. I think they could have a letdown from that game. Oklahoma State has done a good job of beating the teams at the bottom of the Big 12 lately. But they have struggled against top teams like Iowa State. The Cyclones have a great backcourt, and I don't think that the Cowboys will be able to slow down the Cyclones in this one. This should be a fast, back-and-forth game. But I am going with the more proven team here.
Jim Feist
Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Over 157
Tournament play can often be about intense defense...but not this game, as a pair of Big 10 teams that love to run collide. Indiana (17-14) is #2 in the Big 10 in scoring (80.4 ppg), but on 2-8 SU, 4-5-1 ATS run because of no defense, second to last in the conference in points allowed (73.3 ppg). James Blackmon Jr (17 ppg, 4.6 rpg) and guard Rob Johnson (13.3 ppg) lead the attack on a team that is 12-3 over the total against a team with a winning straight up record. Iowa (18-13 SU) loves to run, too, under Coach Fran McCaffery, on 7-3 SU/ATS run 6-6 senior Peter Jok (20.2 pg, 5.7 r), 6-8 freshman Cordell Pemsl (9 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and 6-9 freshman Tyler Cook (12 ppg, 5 rpg) lead and offense that is #3 in Big 10 in scoring (80.2 ppg), but last in points allowed (77 ppg). The Over is 4-1 in the Hawkeyes last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Iowa beat Indiana at home in OT 96-90 in a game that went over the total of 159, part of a 4-1 over when these rivals clash.
Mike Anthony
Oklahoma St vs. Iowa St
Play: Iowa St Pk
Iowa State has won nine straight meetings, and I like Monte Morris and the Cyclones to extend that streak Thursday. Iowa St is the more rounded team and I like them on Thursday afternoon to get us the free cash.
Cajun Sports
Clippers vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -3
The Los Angeles Clippers are in Memphis for the final game of a mini two-game road trip that saw them play in the Twin Cities last night. Prior to their trip to Minnesota last night they were at home for a one-game home stand after another two-game mini road swing. One of the NBA’s many scheduling situations that can be taken advantage of during the regular season. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.94 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 6.91 points against the current line range of -2.5 to -4.5. Both of those primary matrix averages favor the hometown Grizzlies on Thursday night. Finally we want to play ON an NBA home team who lost their last game by ten or more points as a favorite and is playing with 2 days rest. The Grizzlies lost at home on Monday night to the Brooklyn Nets who were installed as 10.5 point road underdogs pulling off the upset 122 to 109. Our system listed above has a record of 69-41 ATS for 62.7 percent winners and calls for a play on the Memphis Grizzlies Thursday night.
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Pick: Cleveland -4.5
Edges - Cavaliers: 24-5 SU and 18-11 ATS as favorites with rest in this series, including 21-3 SU and 17-7 ATS with a win percentage of greater than .555… Pistons: 2-14 SU and 3-12-1 ATS as home dogs following the Pacers. With the Cavs in serious bounce back mode, and 5-0 SUATS the last five games as road chalk since February, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Scott Rickenbach
Texas-San Antonio vs. Middle Tennessee
Play: Middle Tennessee -16
I got burned by UTSA yesterday as they won a post-season game for the first time in 4 years. Even though the Roadrunners snuck by Western Kentucky for their first-ever CUSA Conference Tournament win, look for the them to now get flattened here. In their only match-up with the Blue Raiders this season, the Runners lost by double digits and that game was in San Antonio. Not only that, UTSA was catching MTSU off of a big win over a key CUSA foe (Lousiana Tech) and, as a result, the Roadrunners led by 2 at the half. Not surprisingly, Middle Tennessee State blew them out in the 2nd half and I expect a full 40 minutes from the rested Blue Raiders here as they catch UTSA off of rare back to back wins. Keep in mind, UTSA finished the regular season with a big upset win versus Old Dominion but the Monarchs were not motivated for that game. That certainly will not be the case today with MTSU and that is bad news for a UTSA team that had lost 9 of 12 before winning their season finale. The Blue Raiders closed the season shooting an average of better than 50% from the field in their last 5 games and losing only one CUSA game this entire season! So MTSU comes into this game having averaged 51% from the field their last 5 games while the Roadrunners are only at 38% from the field in road games on the season. The Runners simply won't be able to keep up in this one. UTSA, even with yesterday's surprising win, is still just 4-8 ATS in March games.
Power Sports
Fordham vs. George Mason
Pick: George Mason -4
Long before the A-10 expanded, Fordham was always considered the dreg of the conference. Thus, it's pretty surprising to see that the Rams have covered six straight times against any opponent. To be fair, they are actually 6-0-1 ATS vs. today's opponent (George Mason) w/ the push coming in the last meeting. But with this number so low and the Rams only averaging 61.8 PPG away from home, my recommendation is to lay the points here.
We all remember George Mason's stunning run to the Final Four back in 2006. That will not be happening again anytime soon, sadly. But the Patriots should absolutely advance here and move on to play long-time rival VCU in the quarterfinals. GMU didn't end its regular season particularly well (lost 4 of 5), but that was actually preceded by a four-game win streak. So they've been streaky. A 72-60 loss to VCU in the reg season finale actually bodes well here considering the Patriots are a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game.
Fordham lost its last three reg season games, two of them at home. They split the season series w/ George Mason, winning at home (73-62), but losing on the road (73-67). Shockingly, that home win was G Mason's first of any kind over Fordham since joining the A-10! I just think that the Patriots are the far better team here and they've fared much better away from home this season than has Fordham.
Robert Ferringo
Temple (-5) over East Carolina
I see Temple taking care of business. They have revenge for a shocking 14-point loss at ECU back on Feb. 15, and I think the Owls will get it in spades against this short line. Fran Dunphy's team is short on experience and a little short on talent. However, he is a great coach and this is still the same team that beat Florida State and West Virginia this season. They also swept Memphis in league play, so there is something there. ECU is a lost cause. They are one of the worst programs in the country and I simply can't see them winning this game. If I don't think they win I don't think they will cover.
Allen Eastman
Iowa State (Pk) over Oklahoma State
I am going with the Cyclones. They beat Oklahoma State the first two times they played this year. I think they will get the sweep. I think that Oklahoma State is overrated. This team was favored over Kansas on Saturday at home and they lost easily. I think they could have a letdown from that game. Oklahoma State has done a good job of beating the teams at the bottom of the Big 12 lately. But they have struggled against top teams like Iowa State. The Cyclones have a great backcourt, and I don't think that the Cowboys will be able to slow down the Cyclones in this one. This should be a fast, back-and-forth game. But I am going with the more proven team here. Take Iowa State.
Strike Point Sports
Memphis (-3) over L.A. Clippers
We missed with Memphis on Monday in a big play. But the Grizzlies played one of their worst games of the year in a stunning loss at home to weak Nets. I don't see that happening again. That was a game the Grizzlies led going into the fourth quarter and they just collapsed, getting outscored 34-18 and blowing a game they had a 12-point lead in. Memphis didn't score in the last 5:30 of that game. I think that they are going to be extra-focused to rebound here against the rival Clippers. The Clippers are finally healthy again and have won back-to-back games. But they traditionally don't play well in Memphis. I think that the Grizzlies are going to be very focused in this one and they should be able to grind out a win here.