Art Aronson
Thunder +3½
OKC is going to be the much more motivated team here, it’s lost four straight. It also plays with revenge. The Spurs have won nine straight, including seven since the All Star game. The Spurs are content and the Thunder are hungry. San Antonio is the better team, but in our opinion OKC has the advantage tonight. And with a game at home against the Warriors on Saturday night, its definitely not too hard to imagine the Spurs getting caught looking ahead. Also note that SA is just 11-15 ATS this year after three or more consecutive wins, while OKC is 14-9 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.
Jimmy Boyd
Creighton vs. Providence
Play: Providence +2½
I really like the value here with the Friars as an underdog against the Bluejays. These two teams closed out the regular season going in completely different directions. Providence enters the Big East tournament having won 6 straight and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9. Creighton on the other hand is just 5-7 in their last 12 and their fall coincided with the loss of star point guard Mo Watson. Note that they were just 3-5 in their last 8 and the 3 wins were against the likes of St. Johns, Georgetown and DePaul. During this run they lost at home to Providence as a 7-point favorite. I just think the Friars are the better team right now and should be the ones favored here.
Creighton is a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Friars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 against a team with a winning record.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oklahoma St over Iowa St
These two have played twice this year and the Cyclones are 2-0 over OSU, which included a 96-88 win over these Cowboys back on OSU’s home floor on January 11. The rematch on Feb 28 in Iowa St was much closer, as ISU hung on for a 3-point win as a 3½-point favorite. Now the Cowboys get Iowa State on a neutral floor and if all things are equal, it’s going to be very difficult for the Cyclones to beat this team three times in the same season. Prior to its excusable loss to #10 West Virginia on the final day of the regular season, Iowa State reeled off six wins in a row and was one of the hottest Power 5 programs in the country. They also have victories over Kansas and Miami among others, not to mention just a 2-point loss to the Zags. This is an Iowa State team with a strong résumé that is a lock to make the main event. They are also going to attract a lot of attention here because they have already defeated OSU twice this season, they’re ranked and they’re an enticingly short price here. The proverbial carrot is hanging over the Cyclones here and we’re strongly suggesting not taking it.
At one point this season the Cowboys were 10-8 overall with a 0-6 conference record so an invite to The Big Dance was nothing more than a pipe dream at that point. However, that was then and this is now and the Cowboys are going dancing regardless of the outcome here. That said, OSU isn’t taking anything for granted and therefore should be ready to go here. No team wants to go to the main event coming off three straight losses. The Cowboys lost two straight to close out the regular season. In five of its six losses to start Big 12 play, OSU actually led at halftime before coughing up the lead. The difference? As the wins have kept coming, the Cowboys have the look of a team that knows it is good and they have a swag about them that is not cocky, it’s confident. OSU might have the best offense in the country and they’re a potential freight train that is not wise to get in front of in an evenly priced game. If you have never heard of Oklahoma State sophomore point guard Jawun Evans, you are sure to learn his name soon. Evans leads one of the nation’s most efficient offenses. They are in the nation’s top 10 for three-point percentage, free throw percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage and when you put that against an Iowa State team that is likely to get badly out-rebounded and also is likely to be feeling a little complacent, the right choice would be the team that the market sees as inferior here. They’re not. OSU outright gets this call.
Kansas St +5 over Baylor
Baylor's regular season résumé is all it needed to punch a ticket to The Main Event. The Bears tied a school record with 25 wins, reached #1 in the polls in January and finished the season with their highest ever seed in the Big 12 tournament. With that said, all the talk coming out of Waco about the Bears being focused on cutting down the nets in Kansas City rings a little hollow. Baylor loves to talk, and talk, and talk. After an impressive winning streak earlier this season, the Bears made it known they were determined to break the school's win record. It was all just talk, as Baylor went just 5-5 in its following 10 games. The Bears needed two straight wins to close out their season just to tie the record. A Big 12 title does nothing to help or hurt their chances in The NCAA Tournament. Currently, the #10 ranked Bears are a projected #2 seed. Even a Big 12 championship would not guarantee them a #1 seed.
Kansas State comes in as the #6 seed in this Big 12 tournament and couldn't be any more on the bubble. K-State finished the season strong with wins over TCU and Texas Tech, leapfrogging both teams to secure a first round bye. The Wildcats need to do some damage if they want their names to be called on Selection Sunday and a signature win over ranked Baylor would go a long way in making that a reality. Like a ball-hawking secondary in football, these Wildcats have a nose for the rock. K-State ranks 30th in the nation in turnovers forced per game, and they are second in the Big 12 in steals per game. The Big 12's bottom four is a bubble team’s worst nightmare. Getting Baylor in the opening game is much more desirable for Kansas State, which upset the Bears in Waco in early February. If the Wildcats can do that again and they have the blueprint to do so, they'll have a much more convincing. It's a pretty good setup, all things considered and we should also not ignore that the fan base here will make this a virtual home game for the underdog. When the Wildcats went into Waco about a month ago, they won outright as a 7-point dog. With this game in K-State’s backyard and the stakes much higher for than the dog than the favorite, K-State should not be getting almost the same price. We’re calling the upset but will gladly accept the inflated points.
Illinois +4½ over Michigan
Illinois’ stock is low after the Illini dropped their regular season finale in embarrassing fashion to last place Rutgers, 62-59. Rutgers?! That loss did big time damage to Illinois' case for an at-large bid to The Big Dance. With that defeat, Illinois will have to go on an impressive Big 10 Tournament run to influence the committee. We could spend time breaking down all of the reasons the Illini can win this game but the “pick-and-roll” won't be the “X-factor” this afternoon.
This is a tough spot for the Wolverines. In case you hadn't heard, Michigan was involved in a very scary situation yesterday after its plane skidded off the runway before takeoff. It was an ugly scene and the plane took extensive damage. Thankfully, nobody was hurt, but we cannot underestimate the effects that event will have on these players. The Wolverines were unable to make other travel arrangements and instead were forced to make their way to Washington D.C. this morning for a noon EST tip-off. The short turnaround on air travel is enough but do not forget these guys still have to get from the airport to the arena. That kind of travel is miserable enough on an off day but asking them to play at their highest level here might be unreasonable. Beyond the awful travel, it's impossible to tell how the Wolverine players will respond to such a close call. The highs and lows of a traumatic situation effect people differently and near tragedy has a funny way of putting things into perspective. Basketball might not seem as important today as it did yesterday. Michigan is in the field of 68 while the Illini are a bubble team. After this Illini team had to scratch and claw its way onto the bubble only to lose to Rutgers, an opportunity or reprieve like this does not come up around often and we trust the Illini will seize it. This is their season against a shaken up and mentally drained visitor that does not need to win.
UMKC -6½ over UT Rio Grande Valley
While the entire betting population focuses on the big programs and some mid-majors, this one is completely off the radar and as a result of that, we trust we have found a short-priced favorite. Not many know anything about these teams but our focus is completely on the favorite. That said, UT Rio Grande Valley is one of the worst teams in the country that played one of the easiest schedules in the country while UMKC’s out-of-conference strength of schedule was 118 positions higher than UT Rio Grande Valley’s out-of-conference schedule.
So, why are the Kangaroos of UMKC being sold short here? For one, the Kangaroos are headed to the Western Athletic Conference tournament with an above .500 record for the first time in their four years in the league and it’s been six years since a UMKC team had a winning record entering a conference tournament. Therefore, they have no pedigree to speak of. Secondly, the Kangaroos best player and leading scorer, Martez Harrison, was suspended for a full year back in December and the ‘Roos lost six straight afterward. To give you an idea of how valuable he was, Harrison was named WAC Freshman of the Year, then 2015 Player of the Year, and as a junior he led UMKC in scoring with an average of 15.4 points and 4.2 assists per game. Losing Harrison crushed the Kangaroos spirit and now the market is reluctant to spot points with an unknown team with no pedigree and without its best player. That’s where we step in and grab deflated points.
The ‘Roos have their spirit back. Players have stepped up in Harrison’s absence and the transformation has been a sight to behold. UMKC has won six of its last eight games with only losses over that span occurring on the road against the two best teams in the WAC. We discussed the Kangaroos having no pedigree to bring with them into this tournament but that is not all true and it’s something not many know about. You see, UMKC coach, Kareem Richardson was an assistant on the 2012 Louisville team that won the NCAA National Championship. He accepted the UMKC job in the fall of 2013 and a Kangaroos’ revival has slowly started to take shape. One cannot underestimate the value of having a guy like Richardson in charge in high stakes games against weak competition. UMKC is the vastly superior and better-prepped team that has overcome adversity and now they’re ready to take that next step in their quest to go dancing. It is highly unlikely that this opponent will get in their way or come in under this number.
Kent St +131 over Buffalo
The Bulls played their way into the top four and a bye in this tournament by winning eight of their last 10 regular season games. The Bulls finished second in the MAC after a showdown with Akron on Feb. 28 that, had the Bulls won, they may have finished first in the conference. However, they lost. The Bulls have beaten up on nothing but weak MAC teams all season long. They don’t have a good win this entire year. Some may point to the Bulls 68th ranked out-of-conference strength of schedule for credibility but what good is it if you get smoked? Against Xavier, the Bulls lost by 33 points and against Creighton they lost by 21. They also have losses this year to Canisius and Robert Morris among others. What this market will bank on is a higher seeded Bulls’ squad spotting a short price against a lower seeded team but not everything is as it appears.
Kent State opened this MAC event as a 10-point favorite against Central Michigan and needed OT to beat them. That near loss is not going to endear this dog to the market but as is the case often, there is a story within the story of that game. CMU is an offensive force and came out firing on all cylinders to build up a quick 26-9 lead before the Golden Flashes knew what hit them. To come back against that offense and force OT says quite a lot about the heart and determination of this live pup. There are a slew of other positives working in the Golden Flashes favor here too.
First, this game is in Ohio so for the Ohio-based Flashes, they will get the benefit of a home crowd and that matters. Secondly, KSU has already played a game in this tournament recently (on Monday) while the Bulls have been off for six full days. Figure the Flashes to be the sharper unit because a layoff is not beneficial at all. Furthermore, give a massive rebounding edge to the Golden Flashes, as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the entire country and that figures to make a huge difference on the offensive glass. Offensive rebounds are one of the biggest reasons for major upsets in college basketball. They lead to second chance points and a new shot clock while deflating the will of the opposition at the same time. Finally, Kent State has hit their stride at the right time and they’ll come into this one with heightened confidence. They already beat the Bulls by seven back in Buffalo very recently and now get a home crowd advantage for this one. Buffalo has one win in four neutral site tries this year and that lone victory occurred in OT against Cleveland State way back in their first game of the season. UB now comes in as the chalk with everything working against them situationally and by the way, they are also the second best team in this matchup. Wrong side favored.
Larry Ness
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Pick: Cleveland -5.5
Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue (sinus infection) missed Monday's loss at home to Miami but is expected to join the club in Detroit prior to tonight's tipoff. On the injury front, the Cavs announced Wednesday that Andrew Bogut (fractured left tibia) has been ruled out for the postseason after being injured just 58 seconds into his team debut on Monday but shooting guard J.R. Smith (8.6 PPG) returned to practice on Wednesday for the first time since fracturing his thumb on Dec. 20 (he is listed as questionable against Detroit).
The Cavs haven't played like defending champs lately, as they head to Detroit having lost four of their last six games. That includes dropping both ends of a back-to-back against streaking Miami on Saturday and Monday. All of a sudden, Cleveland's status atop the Eastern Conference is a little more precarious, as Boston pulled within 2 1/2 games of the Cavs, after shocking the Warriors last night in Oakland.
Detroit is tied with Chicago for seventh place in the East as it enters a stretch in which five of its next six games are at home. While Detroit lost for just the third time in eight games when it dropped a 115-98 decision to Indiana last night, the defeat did drop the Pistons two games behind the Pacers in the battle for sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Head coach Stan Van Gundy was highly disappointed with the defensive intensity against Indiana. "They destroyed us," Van Gundy told reporters. "We didn't play defense at all. They scored on anything they wanted and we didn't guard at all."
These two teams have met twice this season, each winning at home. However, Cleveland does catch Detroit playing on the second end of a back-to-back. All things considered, this is a "more than fair price" on the Cavs, who are coming off back-to-back losses and have lost three in a row just twice this season. Take the road favorite.
Tony Finn
Louisville -2.5
If there were a year where the Duke Blue Devils were suspect in their first game of the ACC tournament it is this season against a big and balanced Louisville Cardinals squad. Duke and Louisville (-2.5, 147) are the second ACC event this afternoon in the Big Apple with a scheduled tip at 2:00 p.m. ET at Barclays Center, in Brooklyn, New York.
The pay-for-play girls and party hoopla that surrounded Rick Pitino's crew last season has been forgotten and the 2015-16 Louisville squad returns to the ACC tournament after last year's self imposed postseason ban. The Cardinals enter the league tournament with an overall 24-7 mark and a No #9 national ranking versus the No #15 Duke Blue Devils.
Cardinals’ sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell told the New York Post that the team was laser focused, "We're excited to be back and get ready to get to the national championship, hopefully."
Mitchell leads a deep Louisville team in scoring (15.9) and the ACC in steals (2.1). The now healthy and mentally tough Cardinals present a difficult challenge for the frontcourt-challenged Blue Devils.
While Duke has stepped up its game since the return of Coach K they not only have zero rim protectors to counter the frontcourt of Louisville the Devils backcourt lacks the necessary ball handling skills to counter Pitino's in-your-face defensive scheme. Duke committed 18 turnovers in a 78-69 loss to Louisville during the regular season and even with the return of the team's Hall of Fame coach from back surgery the Blue Devils lost three of four before opening the tournament with a gritty and hard fought win over Clemson on Wednesday. Duke was able to hold on for the victory over the Tigers with 20 points a piece from Luke Kennard, Jayson Tatum and Frank Jackson.
Enigmatic shooting guard Grayson Allen (ankle) is still not 100 percent from an recent leg injury and if there is one given today you can count on the Cardinals to be aggressive in challenging Allen when he has the ball in his hands. Clemson held Allen scoreless in 12 minutes of play in Wednesday's game.
The return to health for Cards junior guard Quentin Snider, the senior leadership of forward Mangok Mathiang and his current double-double run trumps anything that Duke can throw at the defensively capable Cardinals. When Duke lost to Louisville earlier in the season they did so even with All-American Allen scoring a game high 23 points and pulling down nine rebounds at the Yum Center.
Louisville deservedly earns the favorite roll against Duke today and advances to play on Friday with a wire to wire win.
Harry Bondi
BAYLOR (-5) over Kansas State
Baylor lost a lot from last year outstanding team and was not expected to be very good this year but they have had a very solid season and are in position to get a #2 or #3 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament with a good showing in the Big 12 Tournament. Defense is the team’s strength, allowing opponents just 62 points per game. Kansas State struggles against the Bears losing and not covering 4 of their last 5 meetings. The one loss was the last time they met in February so we have Baylor playing with revenge against a Wildcats team that has had trouble steeping up their game against the nations best teams. K-State 0-4 this season against the Top 10 and Baylor currently ranked #10! .
Ben Burns
Vancouver +1.5
With the Isles favored on the ML, we're able to get the Canucks at a "relatively" reasonable price on the puck-line, at +1.5 goals. The Isles may have won at Edmonton last time out but they're still 11-20 vs. the money-line on the road. They still get outscored by an average of 3.2 to 2.6 on the road. Asking them to win by more than a goal, is asking an awful lot, particularly when the Canucks have a winning record (18-15) at home. While I do like the Canucks to win the game "outright," in this case, with the Canucks off three consecutive 1-goal games, I'm just a little more comfortable with that extra +1.5 goals.
Anthony Michael
Phoenix -6.5
The Suns are in a good spot here since they have covered 5 of their last 6 games overall and the home team has covered 6 of the last 8 games between these 2 teams. The Lakers are a dumpster fire right now - their last cover was way back on Feb 10th. The Lakers are just 1-7 ATS against Pacific Division teams and they have only covered 1 of the last 5 games against Phoenix. Phoenix will be looking forward to getting a nice easy win against a badly struggling Lakers team.
Wunderdog
Virginia Tech s. Florida St
Pick: Virginia Tech +7.5
It is all about survive and advance, and that is clear in the rugged ACC who may have as many as 10 teams get an NCAA Tournament bid. Virginia Tech won 99-90 against Georgia Tech to arrive to take on Florida State. The Hokies are 22-9 on the season, and have begun to play their best basketball of the season. Virginia Tech owns a 6-2 straight-up mark in their last eight, but more importantly this team is now 8-1 ATS in their last nine. They are getting no respect and were posted an underdog against Wake Forest, despite being a higher seed. The Hokies have an impressive 7-0 ATS mark in their last seven when taking the floor as an underdog. Florida State is just 6-5 in their last 11 games, and have not played their best down the stretch, and the line looks a bit overdone. Take the points on Virginia Tech.
Bruce Marshall
Portland -9.5
We're coming up on the 40-year anniversary of the epic Finals matchup between these squads in 1977, when Maurice Lucas and Darryl Dawkins squared off and Bill Walton was at the absolute height of his powers. Nothing remotely resembling that this season, and now we have to wonder if Philly might be ready to fade out of sight after putting up a good fight the past couple of months, with word that Joel Embiid is not returning from his knee woes and that Ben Simmons won't be making his NBA debut until next season. In that context, Philly's three crushing losses in the last four games appears a bit alarming, especially as it came on the heels of eight straight spread covers. No team has more games remaining against the 16 teams that currently have losing records than do the Blazers, who were 16-13 in games within that group before facing Nets on March 3. Portland's playoff hopes need Blazers to avenge 1-point loss in Philly back on Jan. 20.
Black Widow
South Florida vs. Connecticut
Play: South Florida +14
Bets on underdogs of 10 or more points in a game involving two poor offensive teams that score 63-67 PPG after 15-plus games, after scoring 60 points or less in their previous game are 57-20 ATS since 1997. This is a very big number for UConn to have to cover tonight. The Huskies are 0-4 in their last four games and shouldn't be 14-point favorites over USF, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now.
Chip Chirimbes
Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Texas A&M +3
Both of these clubs will most likely have to make it to the SEC Championship game in order to impress the selection committee enough to get a big to the Big Dance. Vanderbilt is making their move by winning five of their last six including wins over South Carolina and Florida and has won and 'covered' both meetings with the Aggies this season. Texas A&M hasn't faired well during the regular SEC season going 6-13 ATS. The Aggies big men can cause the Commodores problems as they are ranked eighth nationally in blocked shots with 5.6 per contest.
Dave Price
USC +10
The USC Trojans are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. I expect them to give the UCLA Bruins a run for their money tonight. The Trojans also want revenge from a 70-102 loss at UCLA on February 18th. The Bruins wanted that game badly to end a bad streak against USC. In fact, the Trojans had gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the previous 4 meetings, winning by 8, 24, 19 and 14 points. The Trojans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 neutral site games as an underdog.
Tony George
Penn St vs. Michigan St
Play: Michigan St -5½
Penn State sucks gents, and they beat a bad Nebraska team yesterday in OT, and NU is no Michigan State. Yes Izzo has a lesser version of his usual dominant Bog 10 Sparty type team, and they lost a player that hurts them, but not against Penn State. Nebraska is not fundamentally sound and have 1 scorer, they is a rested and determined team with a legendary Head coach in Tom Izzo.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +134 over TORONTO
OT included. The Detroit Red Wings got buried 6-1 in Boston last night. Detroit went into Toronto on Tuesday and the Maple Leafs hung on for dear life in a 3-2 win. The Vancouver Canucks went into Los Angeles and Anaheim last week in back-to-back games and emerged 2-0 against that pair. The Maple Leafs went into Los Angeles and Anaheim last week in back-to-back games and went 0-2 while getting buried in Anaheim. While we have nothing but accolades to throw Toronto’s way and the direction in which they are going, they are a fragile team right now with young players on their heels. This time of year is when the stakes get higher and Toronto is loaded with players that do not want to make a mistake that ends up costing them a game. The aggressiveness that the Leafs played with for the first four months of the season is just not prevalent anymore. Very few Maple Leafs have experienced this type of pressure at this time of the year and it’s showing. Toronto has four wins over its last 13 games. Those victories occurred against the Islanders, Winnipeg, Carolina and Detroit. The Leafs have 11 wins in 34 games against top-16 competition and that’s when they were playing great. Right now, the Maple Leafs look like a tired and somewhat scared team while Philadelphia is coming on strong.
Philly has picked up seven out of a possible eight points over its last four games. The only point they missed over that stretch was when they went into Washington last Saturday and lost in OT. Philadelphia’s last three losses have been to Washington twice and Pittsburgh once. The Flyers are coming off a dominant 6-3 victory in Buffalo on Tuesday to pull within three points of that last Wild Card spot. The Flyers are two points behind the Maple Leafs so a win here and they only need to leapfrog over one more team. If we’re playing value, the Flyers must be bet here. If we’re playing the team in better form with momentum, the Flyers must be bet here. Thus, the conclusion is a no brainer. The Flyers must be bet here.
Montreal +102 over CALGARY
OT included. The Canadiens have their swag back while Claude Julien has them playing his winning brand of hockey. Montreal has reeled off six in a row and it’s getting better with each passing victory. Montreal is not only winning but they are shooting up the charts in puck possession numbers. The Habs have outshot their last four opponents while cutting way down on shots allowed. Montreal is now 2-0 on this curremnt road trip after dominating both the Rangers in New York and the Canucks in Vancouver. They’ll now face the hottest team in the NHL and there is no question that Montreal cannot wait for this challenge. The Canadiens also have a significant edge in goal.
You may recall that we were the first to point out the “fade teams’ coming off their bye week angle” and it’s not something we just happened to pull at of our hats. As an observer of this sport and paying close attention to situations, we noticed that teams’ coming off layoffs of more than three days were usually flat. Times that by two and we saw an opportunity that worked out but it doesn’t mean we have to wait until next year to attack that angle again. Coming off their bye against Arizona on February 13th, the Flames lost 5-0. Calgary would subsequently go on a tear by winning eight of its next nine games, which was capped off by its easy 5-2 victory over the Islanders last Sunday. It’s now four days later and the Flames have to go through a lengthy layoff by NHL standards for the second time this month and this is not Arizona. The Flames are a strong team whose stock is high but they are in a horrible situational spot against a hot Carey Price and it’s not likely going to work out in Calgary’s favor.