Eric Schroeder
Hit three straight free college picks - Florida Gulf Coast on Sunday, Siena on Monday and the Over in the Boston College-Wake Forest on Tuesday - and look to make it four in a row with Iowa plus the points tonight against Indiana.
These two are even in so many aspects, but what stands out to me is the Hawkeyes were three games better than Indiana in conference play. While Iowa went 10-8 in Big 10 action, the Hoosiers were just 7-11. That means enough to me to be a huge difference, especially in this conference.
They both average 80 points per game, and both have been on the same tear most recently, but the scoring defense is way off.
Over their last five games, Indiana has been hit for 82.2 points per game. On the other hand, Iowa has allowed an average of 73 pointts in its last five.
Why are the Hoosiers laying points? Take the underdog, as Iowa is the proven better overall team.
2* IOWA
Jack Brayman
My free play for tonight is on Hampton minus a short number against Maryland-Eastern Shore.
Morgan State and Hampton both finished the 2017 season with identical 11-5 conference marks, but by virtue of Morgan State's 77-70 win over Hampton on Feb. 25, the Bears captured the No. 3 seed while Hampton enters as the No. 4 seed.
Yet I don't think Hampton is receiving the type of respect it should, especially against No. 5 seed Maryland Eastern Shore.
These two split the regular season series, both relatively close games, so there is confidence on both sides. But I like the scoring defense of Hampton more so, especially lately, as the Pirates have been stingy down the stretch, giving up just 69.8 points per game over their last five.
Hampton will get physical in this one, and suffocate the Hawks en route to a win.
4* HAMPTON
Brad Wilton
Until further notice, have to play against Luke Walton's Lakers who have sunk about as low as you can go here in the home stretch of the regular season.
Los Angeles just lost their 8th in a row straight up in their Tuesday setback at Dallas. The Lakers are 0-7-1 against the spread during their current slide, and that includes a 137-101 loss at Phoenix the last time L.A. played the Suns.
Phoenix just saw their 3-game straight up winning streak snapped in a home loss to Washington, 131-127 on Tuesday, but the Suns did cover in that loss, as they have covered in 4 straight.
The Suns have also won 8 of the last 10 in the series, and they have covered in each of the last 4 meetings in the Valley of the Sun versus Los Angeles.
Like I said in the first paragraph, until further notice, have to play against the Lakers until they show signs that they can at least cover a number in the underdog role, and 0-7-1 their last 8 is not the sign I am looking for this Thursday night.
2* PHOENIX
ASA
Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Under 156
Our math model projects this one at 149 so an advantage to the UNDER. These two met a few weeks ago and while Iowa won the game 96-90 in OT, at the end of regulation it was 75-75 so 150. Both teams shot very well (both at 47%) and the made a whopping 55 FT’s in the game. We don’t anticipate those offensive numbers today as both play their first game ever at the Verizon Center. The Hawkeyes have been a high scoring team at home in Big ten play (81 PPG), however on the road for the season they average 8 fewer points (73) while shooting just 40%. Only one of their conference road games topped this current total of 155.5 and that was @ Purdue when the two teams tallied 156. Indiana was in a very similar situation this season. The Hoosiers put up more than 80 PPG this season at home yet just 72 on the road. IU’s offense was much less potent down the stretch as well as they failed to reach 80 points in 10 of their last 11 games (in regulation).
Zack Cimini
Creighton vs. Providence
Pick: Providence
The Friars will look to duplicate a comeback win on the road that occurred over Creighton recently. To do so, they'll need to play better defense from the start and not dig themselves an early hole. In a neutral site I do expect the Friars to have a better effort defensively and stymie a Creighton team that regionally is in a tough spot traveling from Nebraska to New York.
PORT PORT SPORTS
SAN ANTONIO SPURS -3
This spread seems a tad too low for the Spurs, especially considering both Leonard and Aldridge sat out of last night's big comeback win against the Kings. The Spurs had their largest comeback turnaround in their history yesterday as they batted back from being down 28 points at one time in the game to come away with the 10 point victory. San Antonio has now won 9 straight games overall, although they have deadly for their backers in that stretch, now having lost 5 straight ATS and posting a 3-7 ATS mark in their L10 games overall. They have posted a 4-0 ML and 3-1 ATS record in their L4 on the road however, and the Spurs have now posted a 7-1 ML record in their L8 away from home with none of those wins coming by less than 3 points. The Spurs are also 3-0 ML and 2-1 ATS in their L3 on the road against the Western conference and they are 10-3 ML in their L13 on the road overall. Oklahoma City is currently mired in some current trouble themselves, as they come into tonight having posted 4 straight losses on the ML and ATS, although 3 of those games came on the road. The Thunder have been money on their home court lately, holding a 4-1 ML and ATS mark in their L5 played in OKC. The Thunder are 1-4 ML and ATS in their L5 when getting the points as the underdog recently and they have been mediocre when playing as the home underdog this season, holding a 2-3 ML and 3-2 ATS record in the 5 games in which they were getting the points on their own court. San Antonio snapped a 3-game skid against Oklahoma City with their 108-94 home win in their prior meeting this season and the Spurs have now picked up the win in 3-of-the-L4 regular season meetings between the two teams.
OC Dooley
Missouri +6.5
owly Missouri who already has announced the firing of their head coach is playing basically with "house money" after pulling off a shocking opening round 87-83 upset versus Auburn (and their high profile headmaster Bruce Pearl). In the past TWO YEARS ON THE ROAD after allowing 75+ points in consecutive games, Missouri has COVERED SIX IN A ROW. In yesterday's opening round Mississippi (+3) upset South Carolina even though the Gamecocks were already in a free-fall late in the regular season. In the past THREE YEARS after pulling off an outright upset as an underdog, Ole Miss has been a "bet against" going a horrible 2-11 ATS. While the SEC Tournament during the afternoon saw the favorites cover both games, I feel the opposite will occur late this evening