DAVE COKIN
PADRES AT BREWERS
PLAY: BREWERS -136
I’m going mostly off my models where I can grab what I see as good value. But I’ll make a rare situational play here. The Padres are off a very unlikely doubleheader sweep at Wrigley. That’s some pretty heady stuff for a low level team, and I have to think that they could be a shade spent here.
There’s also the strong likelihood that if it’s close late, the Padres will have to do without Fernando Rodney, who saved both ends of that twinbill, so I would think gets the day off here. James Shields is not in good form. I don’t think it’s a fluke, either. Shields is displaying all the tendencies of a pitcher in decline. Velocity and K rates down significantly, and BB rate up.
As for Milwaukee, Jimmy Nelson is strictly middle of the road material, generally not great, generally not terrible. The Brewers have a clear edge with the sticks in a righty-righty matchup. Granted, the Friars have shown some improvement with the sticks of late, but this is still what I’d consider to be a well below average offense, particularly vs. righties.
This is definitely not a value play. My calculations show Brewers -132 so it’s a no play on the math. But the scheduling dynamics are pretty good, and I’m going to go ahead and take a shot with the Brewers to get a win tonight.
Sleepyj
Spurs / Thunder Over 195.5
OKC has a chance now to end this series..Playing slow won;t get that done..Even if the SPurs try to play slow the OKC tempo should be set here..OKC will look to run the tired legs of the old timers off tonight..How well that will work for OKC is another question...Spurs are very good and live in this one..I expect them to look for the big guys to score here...Leonard and Aldridge should have big games..The shooting % for those two alone should be very good tonight..Perhaps a player prop with those guys...I can't see many Spurs hitting double digits, but these two fit the bill here for scoring...Durant and Westbrook are plying at a high level right now and letting the Spurs get set on defense can derail the success they've been having..I think OKC pushes the pace here and SAS keep up with them..This one might go to OT and I feel good about the over in regulation here.
Rob Vinciletti
Predators vs. Sharks
Play: Sharks -171
The Sharks will look to take the series here at home tonight after dropping game 6 in Nashville.. They are 30-14 with revenge, 19-6 off a loss including 5-1 of late here at home. San Jose has won 17 of 21 vs teams with a winning record. Nashville has lost 16 of 20 on the road as a dog off a home game and will be up against it tonight. Play on San Jose in game 7.
Mike Lundin
Padres vs. Brewers
Play: Padres +130
The San Diego Padres are coming off a pair of wins against the red hot Cubs on Wednesday. Filled with confidence they'll now take on the Milwaukee Brewers, and this looks like an excellent price on the Padres with James Shields (1-5, 3.60 ERA) on the hill.
Shields was tagged for four runs in six innings against the Mets his last time out, but he had held the Rockies and the Giants to one run each through a total of 13 innings in his last two starts prior.
This will be Shields' first meeting with Milwaukee which will turn to Jimmy Nelson (4-2, 3.74) who has posted a 1.54 ERA in two career starts versus San Diego. Nelson was however torched for six runs (five earned) on eight hits in five innings against the Reds his last turn, and bouncing back against the Padres tonight could be tough.
Marc Lawrence
Tigers vs. Orioles
Play:Tigers +147
Edges - Tigers: Mike Pelfrey 3-0 career team starts in this park; and 5-2 last seven overall away team starts. Orioles: Ubaldo Jimenez 7-12 career team starts versus Detroit, including 0-5 the last five. With that look for Jimenez to fall to 3-6 in his last nine overall starts in may here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.
Jim Feist
Mets vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 6
A low total here but plenty of offensive talent, with the Mets ranked No. 12 in baseball in on base percentage. The over is 39-19-1 in the Mets last 59 road games, plus 9-2 over the total in Bartolo Colon's last 11 road starts. Colon has a 1.89 ERA at home, but 3.72 on the road. Clayton Kershaw has allowed 7 runs his last three starts (23 innings) and he has a 2.74 ERA at home.
Matt Josephs
Tigers vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9½
The Orioles bring some hot bats into Thursday night's game against the Tigers. Baltimore has scored 34 runs in their last five games with four of those going over the total. They'll need to score with Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound. He's 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA in six starts for the O's. Jimenez is 5-11 with a 5.86 ERA and a WHIP of 1.509 in 19 career starts against Detroit. Last year he allowed 13 runs and 13 hits in two games against them. Miguel Cabrera (15-43), Ian Kinsler (6-22), Victor Martinez (9-29) and Justin Upton (7-25) all hit the vet hard. Detroit's bats will be happy to no longer see Max Scherzer. They were hitting .273 against right-handed starters before Wednesday night. Mike Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 7.42 ERA and a WHIP of 1.978 in six starts this season. Adam Jones (6-12) and Mark Trumbo (5-10) hit Pelfrey hard. Baltimore is hitting .276 at home where they score 4.5 runs per contest. These two have gone over in five of their last nine in Baltimore. I think we could see a lot of runs on Thursday.
John Ryan
Phillies vs. Braves
Play: Phillies -131
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 238-154 since 1997 good for 61% winners, but has made a whopping 88 units/unit wagered. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PHILADELPHIA) - poor NL offensive team (less than 4.1 runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA over 4.50), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Phillies are a money winning 12-4 (+12.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season; 17-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season; 11-3 (+11.7 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season; 8-2 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season. Atlanta is a money losing 1-16 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season; 1-14 (-12.4 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season.
Fundamental Discussion Points The Phillies' starter Vince Velasquez throws mostly first pitch strikes and has only given up after an 0-1 count a .195 average. So far this season to batters hitting 8th in the lineup he hasn't given up a hit with no walks and batters 5th in the lineup only have 1 hit and no walks. The Phillies can continue to pitch their way to a win here. Pick Philadelphia Phillies.
Larry Ness
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Price’s 6.75 ERA is tied for MLB's worst BUT he owns AL's highest run-support average (8.49)...
My free play is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET.
There was hardly anything separating David Price and Dallas Keuchel last season. Keuchel went 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA last season with Houston (team was 23-10, plus-$973), while Price was 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA between Detroit and Toronto (teams were 24-8, plus-$1,137). However, in the end, it was the Houston Astros left-hander who wound up beating out Price for the AL Cy Young Award, getting 22 first-place votes while Price got the other eight. Keuchel is back with Houston again in 2016 but Price signed a seven-year, $217 million deal with Boston. The two aces square off in tonight’s contest and the question to be asked is, which pitcher has been more disappointing so far in 2016?
Both have made seven starts and while Price is 4-1, his ERA is a lofty 6.75 (1.38 WHIP), as the Red Sox have gone 4-3 in his outings (minus-$88). As for Keuchel, he’s 2-4 (team is 2-5, minus-$624 ) with a 4.70 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. However, the answer to which pitcher is the biggest disappointment is probably Price, given his new HUGE contract and the expectations Boston had. Price’s 6.75 ERA is tied for MLB's worst. "I'm mentally strong," Price told MLB's official website after allowing six runs over 4.2 innings Saturday in an 8-2 loss to the Yankees. "I'm not going to harp on these seven starts or my last start. I'm going to go out there on Thursday and be ready to get after the Astros."
As for Keuchel, he said about facing Price, "It will be fun. Going into his park and facing him is going to be pretty fun and they're hitting the ball well, so I've got my hands full." Keuchel’s ERA is quite as high as Price’s but he had been reached for 16 runs on 26 hits over 16.1 innings in three straight losses before allowing two runs in seven innings against Seattle in a no-decision on Saturday. Getting back to Price, his fielding-independent pitching of 2.85 is sixth in the AL and he's striking out 11.54 batters per nine innings. He’s pitched well against Houston over his career, posting a 3-2 record with a 2.89 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 43.2 innings over six starts (teams are 4-2). Maybe best of all, he enters this game with the AL's highest run-support average (8.49 per nine innings).
Power Sports
Philadelphia vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +1.5
Don't make the mistake of buying into the Phillies' 19-15 record. They have a -30 run differential, so this is most certainly a team that should "feel fortunate" to even have a winning record. That good fortune has come in the form of a MLB-best 12-3 mark in one-run games (3-0 in extra innings). So that's why I'm playing this one "a little safe" via the RL.
The Braves did win last night though, 5-1, as they held the Phils to just four hits for the game. In fact, Philly nearly had as many errors in the game (3) as they did hits. Another reason to like the run line in this matchup is that these are the two lowest scoring offenses in all of MLB. Runs should be at a premium. The Phillies, who won the season opener by the "dreaded" one-run margin, have scored just four runs total in the series.
It is almost unfathomable to me that a team could be 2-16 at home. Yet, that's Atlanta's record here at Turner Field. I say it's due to improve (at least somewhat). It would be nice if the offense started supporting tonight's starter Aaron Blair, who has pitched well in all three of his outings, but gotten little in the way of support. Of course, it hasn't helped that he's started against the likes of Jacob deGrom, Jon Lester and Zack Greinke. Tonight's he goes up against Vincent Velasquez, who allowed 4 ER his last time out after walking a total of seven batters his previous two starts. I say the Braves do no worse than a one-run loss here.
Martin Griffiths
6
Aberdeen vs. Heart of Midlothian
Play: Over 2½
I like the overs on this game, in the last eight games featuring Aberdeen every single one has been over 2.5 goals and the last time these two met it was over 2.5 goals and in the last six Premier league matches between these tow it has gone over 2.5 goals on four occasions.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Sharks on the PUCK LINE over the Predators.
Been one heck of a series, but as you saw last night when the Blues dropped the Stars, 6-1, at this time the cream tends to rise to the top.
I believe the Sharks are the better team, and will close this series out at home by at least 2 goals.
The last game played in California saw San Jose dump Nashville, 5-1, and a similar final tonight would not be a surprise.
The Predators have had a great season, but on the road in a 7th and deciding game is not a good spot for Nashville.
Any lead the Sharks have late will balloon once the Preds pull Pekka Rinne to try and play catch up, so solid value on the PUCK LINE tonight with the host.
Go with the Sharks.
3* SAN JOSE -1.5
Brad Wilton
Thursday comp play is the Phillies and Braves to close their series with another Under.
The first two of this current three game set have landed Under the total, as the series numbers between these East Division rivals show five straight Unders, and Unders in six of the last seven with a push in the mix.
Vincent Velasquez stands at 4-1 for the season with a 2.17 ERA, while his counterpart Aaron Blair is 0-2 with a 3.31 ERA.
Philly is on an overall 9-4-2 Under run their last 15 games, while Atlanta stands at 5-2-1 Under in their last 8 games.
Pitcher's duel tonight to close this series out.
Phillies-Braves Under.
5* PHILADELPHIA-ATLANTA UNDER
Will Rogers
Detroit vs. Baltimore
Pick: Over
The Baltimore Orioles have not let postponed games hamper their momentum as they return home to Camden Yards with four consecutive wins under their belts. They scored nine runs in a win over the Twins in their last game, and we could see another slugfest in Baltimore tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Tigers hand the ball to Mike Pelfrey (0-4, 6.23 ERA) who has been hit hard in each of his last four starts, conceding a total of 18 earned runs on 32 hits in just 20 2/3 frames. He has posted a 4.43 ERA in four career starts against Baltimore which counters with Ubaldo Jimenez (2-3, 4.54). The 32 year old right-hander has posted a 5-11 record with a 5.60 ERA in 19 career starts against Detroit.
2. Tigers Bullpen - Detroit's bullpen has compiled a 3.76 ERA and is one of the reasons why the Tigers have lost eight of their past nine games.
3. X-Factor - The Birds' Mark Trumbo homered twice in Wednesday's 9-2 victory at Minnesota. Trumbo is 5-for-10 with a home run in previous meetings with Pelfrey who gave up three homers in his last start.
Chase Diamond
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Houston Astros +135
This game has the 14-21 Astros and the 21-13 Red Sox. I don't believe that David Price has fixed himself this guy got shelled last time out and at with a 6.75 ERA I don't think the Astros should be getting plus money here. Dallas Keuchel looked strong last time out striking out 8 over 7 innings and the Astros are desperate for wins.