Brandon Lee
Orioles -165
Baltimore is worth a look here at home against the Tigers on Thursday. The Orioles come into this contest having won 4 straight, while Detroit is in the midst of a major slump. The Tigers are a mere 1-8 in their last 9 games. The Orioles are 13-5 at home this season and have won 3 of Ubaldo Jimenez's 4 home outings. No real surprise, as Jimenez continues to pitch much better at home than he does on the road. The key here is Baltimore should have no problem providing Jimenez with enough run support to secure the win. Detroit's Mike Pelfrey has a 7.42 ERA and 1.978 WHIP in 6 starts (1-5 team record). Pelfrey has allowed exactly 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts. Orioles are 12-2 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season and 11-2 in their 13 home games against a right-handed starter.
Jimmy Boyd
Diamondbacks -103
Arizona is showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home in their series opener against division rival San Francisco. The Diamondbacks come into this game having won 5 of their last 6, while the Giants have dropped 5 of their last 8.
While both teams will send out a more than capable starter, I give the edge here to Zack Greinke an Arizona. Greinke is working off back-to-back strong starts, where he allowed just 4 runs with 16 strikeouts in 13 innings of work. He's also a perfect 8-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in 11 career starts (10-1 team record) against the Giants.
San Francisco will counter with Johnny Cueto, who hasn't been near as sharp on the road as he has at AT&T Park. Cueto has a 3.72 ERA in 3 road starts and last time he took the mound away from home, he gave up 6 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in just 5 innings against the Reds.
Giants are just 4-15 in their last 19 road games off a win by 2 runs or less, while the Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 after playing 5 or more games on the road and 4-1 in Greinke's last 5 starts.
Zack Cimini
Padres at Brewers
Play: Padres +130
After a double-header in which the Padres defeated the Cubs in both games you'd figure a let down will occur against the Brewers. I see further value as James Shields should be able to regain his form against a Brewers lineup that is struggling. Aaron Hill, Jon Lucroy, and Cris Carter have cooled off at the plate recently, and power has dissipated from the lineup. While Jimmy Nelson is capable of carrying the team with his arm there are too many issues with their bullpen to garner this high of a spread. Grab San Diego to surprise folks with a nice payout yet again.
Bruce Marshall
Houston +130
The Bosox are not facing the A's any longer, so we doubt the stretch of three straight double-digit run games extends any further. Houston's Dallas Keuchel has not been especially sharp this season but rates a much better chance than the Oakland starting pitchers. Also, little reason to get excited about the Red Sox with David price and his 6.75 ERA on the mound.
Wunderdog
San Antonio @ Oklahoma City
Pick: San Antonio -1.5
Oklahoma City had trouble closing out games in the regular season. Now it's the Spurs that have wilted in the fourth quarter the last two games, resulting in an elimination game tonight. San Antonio got almost no production from its bench and shot 40.2 percent overall on Tuesday with Kawhi Leonard scoring 26 points. However, the rest of the team was just 34.8 percent from the field. Russell Westbrook finished with 35 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists and Kevin Durant added 23 points for the Thunder. Still, the Spurs had a six-point lead with four minutes remaining before the Thunder's late run. Look for San Antonio to bounce back in a must-win situation, so lay the points on the Spurs.
Scott Rickenbach
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: New York Mets +1.5 -120
Look for the bat of Bartolo Colon to carry the Mets here! All kidding aside, after hitting the first homer of his career (as a 42 year old pitcher no less!), Colon will be on the mound for New York tonight. He has pitched quite well this season with and the Mets have won each of his last 3 starts. Colon has a 2.92 ERA on the season with a solid 1.14 WHIP. Though Clayton Kershaw is certainly an ace for the Dodgers, should he really be this large of a favorite against a solid Mets team. Of course fading Kershaw and looking for the Mets to win outright could be a little too aggressive here but I do expect New York to be in this game all the way and feel there is great line value with taking the 1.5 runs here. Kershaw has been piling up the strikeouts but let's take a look at an interesting factoid surrounding his last 4 starts. The Dodgers lefty completely dominated the punchless Padres for a shutout win but in the other 3 starts he allowed a total of 25 hits in 22 innings. Should he really be a -250 favorite against a 21-12 Mets team? The Dodgers have won just 5 of their last 15 games and 2 of those wins came by a single run. That means that if you laid 1.5 runs in each of the last 15 games you lost 12 of 15 bets! The Mets are 12-6 on the road this season while the Dodgers are only 6-10 at home so far this year. It would not surprise me to see this game end up being a 2-1 or 3-2 pitchers duel.
Ray Monohan
Milwaukee Brewers -132
The Brewers welcome in the Padres on Thursday and this is a letdown spot for the Padres here. San Diego comes in off a doubleheader sweep of the Cubs on Wednesday and going into lowly Milwaukee here after that probably isn't going keep their focus. San Diego will send out James Shields, who is just 1-5 on the season with a 3.60 ERA.
For the Brewers, they send out Jimmy Nelson. Nelson is 4-2 on the year and has a stellar ERA of just 1.54 in 2 starts. Look for Brewers OF Ryan Braun to be the difference maker here. Braun has hit .312 with 11 home runs in 51 career games against San Diego.
Some trends to consider. Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Brewers are 5-1 in Nelsons last 6 starts.
With this being a solid letdown spot for the Padres after a long day in Chicago, the Brewers hold solid value here.
Jack Jones
Tigers/Orioles Over 9½
Get ready for some offensive fireworks Thursday night in Game 1 of this series between the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles. Two of the worst starters in the league will go head-to-head in this one against two potent offenses.
Mike Pelfrey has been atrocious, going 0-4 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.978 WHIP in six starts this season. Things won't get any easier for him tonight considering the Orioles have scored at least 5 runs in four consecutive games coming in. Pelfrey sports a 4.43 ERA and 1.791 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore.
Ubaldo Jimenez is 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in six starts this season for Baltimore, including 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.607 WHIP in his last three. Jimenez is 5-11 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.509 WHIP in 19 career starts against Detroit. He has given up 13 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Tigers.
Detroit is 46-22-4 to the OVER in its last 72 road games, and 24-9-1 to the OVER in its last 34 vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 6-0 in Tigers last six when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 4-1 in Orioles last five games overall. The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals +122
I backed the Royals +135 yesterday as my free play and they came through with a 7-3 victory over the Yankees. I'm going to get back on them again today at another great +122 price here. Ian Kennedy has proven to be the ace of this Kansas City rotation after coming over in the offseason. He has gone 4-2 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in six starts as the Royals' pitching coach continues to work wonders for guys who come to KC. He'll be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi, who is 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA in 6 starts, including 1-1 with a 4.74 ERA in 3 home starts. The Royals are 21-7 in their last 28 during game 4 of a series.
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the Baltimore Orioles on the Run Line against the Detroit Tigers.
The two most explosive offensive teams right now are atop the American League East - these Orioles and Boston Red Sox.
Baltimore, which has won four straight games and leads the American League with 49 home runs, just stroked 12 in the last three games. The O's own a 30-10 run advantage in their last four games.
That spells trouble for the Tigers, who have allowed 15 home runs in their last seven games.
Take the Orioles tonight, on the run line, as the onslaught continues.
2* ORIOLES -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 55-41 run with free picks: Houston at BOSTON (-145)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Boston Red Sox are back on a roll after hosting the struggling Oakland Athletics and sweeping the three-game series in rousing fashion. Tonight they open a series with the Houston Astros. Boston is in after winning four straight. It avoided a sweep versus the New York Yankees by winning on Sunday night, then romped the A's, 14-7 on Monday, 13-5 on Tuesday and 13-3 last night.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - I am not listing pitchers, but I like going against Houston's Dallas Keuchel. Houston's ace southpaw is looking for his first win since April 15, when he beat Tigers with eight scoreless innings. But in four starts since, he’s 0-3 with a 6.94 ERA, allowing 34 hits in 23 1/3 innings. Opponents are hitting .351 in that span.
BOTTOM LINE is - After putting up 40 runs the last three games, Boston's offense is alive once again, and could prove very dangerous as long as it is at home. The Red Sox came into the week leading the junior circuit with 5.03 runs per game. That average is up after a trip of double-digit scoring efforts, having outscored the A's 40-15 the past three nights.
1* RED SOX
SPS Investors
Detroit vs. Baltimore
Pick: Detroit
The Detroit Tigers find themselves in a somewhat unfamiliar role tonight as they take on the Baltimore Orioles and that is in the role of significant underdogs. The Tigers have a more than capable and extremely dangerous batting lineup, which has shown capable of altering the course of a game with a single swing of the bat. This makes them an incredibly dangerous team as underdogs as they have the potential to win each and every time they step on the field.
Recently however the Tigers have been going through a slump. They have lost 8 of their last 9 games and last night they struck out an incredible 20 times at the plate! There is no doubt that perception is at an all-time low on this team. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles are on a 4 game winning streak and have won 7 of the last 10 meeting with Detroit. While those statistics are certainly impressive, games are not won on perception.
Baltimore start Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled mightily against the Tigers in his career. In fact, in 19 career appearances he is just 5-11 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.509 WHIP! His team is also just 7-12 when he has taken the mound. With the Detroit bats having struck out 20 times last night, you better believe that they are chomping at the bit tonight to atone from their performance against Washington. We expect them to be extremely motivated heading into this contest and have shown their ability to pile up hits and runs against Jimenez. If they are able to do that again tonight, they should come away with a profitable underdog victory.
Harry Bondi
ST LOUIS -125 over LA Angels
We have had a lot of success going with and against the Dodgers lately but lets go way across town, actually let's go to Anaheim and go against the wrongly names LA Angels. Adam Wainright goes to the hill for St Louis as the Cardinals go for a three-game sweep of the injury plagued and offensively challenged Angels and we think they will get it. Wainright has looked great in his last two starts, a 10-3 win over Philadelphia and a 6-4 win over Pittsburgh last Saturday. That spells trouble for a Angels team that has scored a total of eight runs and hit .197 while dropping it's last 5 games at home. The pitching for LA at Anaheim has been just as bad. Rotation has put up a 8.24 ERA over the past 10 games. Angels will also be without starting shortstop Andrelton Simons who was put on the disabled list yeaterday and will be gone until July. St. Louis has won nine of its last 12 on the road and get another one tonight!
Bob Balfe
Thunder +1.5
We have no choice but to wager on the Thunder tonight. This team deserves our backing after they won back to back games on the road in this series. The Spurs only lost 1 home game all year so think about what they accomplished. It might be the changing of the guard and the Thunder have certainly paid their dues to get to the next level if they can win tonight. This team has been together for some time now and could be a dark horse against the Warriors.
Braves +110
It is the same old Phillies. This team will show so much promise and then play the worst team in baseball and maybe get a combined 10 hits the entire series. Atlanta is awful at home, but got themselves a nice win last night and will be looking to string together some momentum against Philly tonight. The Phillies have shown great signs for what is to come with their pitching, but still are a year or two away from being a decent club again.
Ian Cameron
Detroit at Baltimore
Play: Over 9.5
I’m still locked into ‘fade Mike Pelfrey’ mode as he faces the powerful Baltimore Orioles. I’ve cashed a handful of winning side and total recommendations against Pelfrey in recent weeks and looking to take a similar path in this game. Pelfrey has been beyond abysmal, allowing 4+ runs in five of his six starts with a 6.23 ERA. He's allowed 26 runs on 44 hits and six homers in 30.1 innings of work with as many walks as strikeouts (15). His problems with being hit hard and allowing the long ball are not likely to be helped by the fact he is pitching against an Orioles lineup that currently leads the American League with 49 home runs. On the flip side, Ubaldo Jimenez has had a solid season although he did recently get pounded by the White Sox in this ballpark for six runs in 4.2 innings of work. He bounced back in his last outing against light hitting Oakland, allowing just two runs in eight innings. Note that Jimenez got smacked around in both of his starts against Detroit last season allowing 13 runs in just 9.1 innings. And even though Detroit's lineup isn't exactly suited to hit right-handers -- see last night's 20 K's vs. Max Scherzer -- Jimenez doesn't have very strong splits and is obviously far more hittable at this point in his career. Weather expected to be in the low 70's with a slight wind out to left. Add it all up and we should see plenty of hits, baserunners, and runs.