DAVE COKIN
MARINERS AT ORIOLES
PLAY: MARINERS +113
If you’ve followed the plays I post here, there’s a very noticeable common theme with many of my baseball plays. I’m not very fond of pitchers who have very low K rates. Tyler Wilson fits into that category, and I’ll be playing against the Baltimore righty this morning.
Wilson has been serviceable this far, but he has also been somewhat fortunate. He’s about as pitch to contact as it gets, and while he’s doing a good job of not beating himself, I think it’s a matter of time before he starts getting at least a little beat up.
Nate Karns will start for Seattle in this game. Karns is proving to be a middle of the rotation rock. He’ll have the occasional high level outing, he’ll get beat up every now and then. But generally this is a pitcher who will get his six or seven innings in and will give his team a decent chance to get a win. That’s pretty much what I’m looking for from Karns today.
The downside of this game is that if it’s tight at the finish line, the Orioles have the far more trustworthy bullpen. The Mariners were actually posting some outstanding relief corps numbers, but I think that was a bit of a mirage and reality seems to be setting in lately.
Offensively, this is closer than many might think. I won’t argue that the Birds have the better overall attack, but it’s not by much and the fact is the Mariners have been extremely productive on the road, which explains their outstanding record away from Safeco so far this season.
I’m going with what I consider reasonable value here. I made this game Orioles -102, so while getting the Seattle side at roughly +113 isn’t exactly slam dunk material, it’s also good enough to warrant a wager. The Mariners are my choice in this game.
Rob Vinciletti
Braves vs. Pirates
Play: Pirates -157
The Pirates will look to take the finale of this 4 game series after dropping one to Atlanta yesterday. They qualify in a big 88% system that pertains to teams off a home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog win scoring 4 or less runs on 10+ hits. The Braves are 0-4 on the road off a road win and 6-17 vs winning teams. Atlanta is 9-26 when playing on Thursdays the last 2+ seasons. We will back lefty J.Locke over Atlanta and Foltynewicz tonight. Play on the Pirates.
Scott Spreitzer
Mariners vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -124
The Orioles look to take the rubber game of their series with the Mariners, while extending their run to 9-2 in their last 11 games, overall. Baltimore sends Tyler Wilson to the mound for his 8th appearance and 5th start in 2016. Wilson has allowed just five earned runs, 18 base runners, and one home run in 15 2/3 IP at home this season, for a 2.87 ERA & 1.15 WHIP, to go along with a .207 BAA. The young right-hander has now allowed a grand total of just seven earned runs in 27 career innings at Camden Yards. And while he's only in his second season, Wilson has done his best work in daytime outings. Nathan Karns goes for the Mariners on Thursday, and while his numbers are decent, the fact is, he's saddled with a 1.45 WHIP on the road. Karns will face a Baltimore offense that ranks 9th or better in home team batting average, OBP, and OPS. And the O's are one of MLB's elite at the plate with runners in scoring position, while the Mariners have struggled in this key offensive category. Finally, Wilson is backed by MLB's stingiest bullpen ERA. The M's come into this one having dropped four of their last five games, while the Orioles are on a 22-7 run at home and 4-0 in Wilson's last four starts against teams with a winning record.
Jim Feist
Houston vs. Chicago
Play: Under 7.5
A pair of strong pitchers are on the mound. Houston's offense has disappointed, leading the league in strikeouts. The Under is 36-17-6 when the Astros face the American League Central. Starter Collin McHugh has a solid strikeout to walk ratio and has allowed 11 total runs his last four starts (23 innings). The Under is 8-3 in McHugh's last 11 starts with 4 days of rest. Chicago has ace Chris Sale going, at 8-0 with a 1.67 ERA. Sale was outstanding again Friday night allowing just one run on six hits, he did not issue a walk, and struck out six in a complete game win over the Yankees. The Under is 8-3-1 when the White Sox are at home against a team with a losing record, plus 12-4 under when Sales is at home. And the Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Chicago.
Big Al
Yankees vs Athletics
Pick: Yankees
The Yankees avoided arbitration with RH Ivan Nova and signed him to a one-year, $4.1 Million contract back in January. And given Nova's numbers the past two seasons, you could hardly blame the Yanks' front office if they thought this would be his last year with the team. But the way Nova has been pitching lately, you have to wonder if Brian Cashman and Co. aren't wishing they'd signed Nova to a long-term deal. After all, this team needs starting pitching right now, and Nova is 2-1 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in eight games (two starts). In his last two starts, Nova has allowed two runs on 10 hits in 10 1/3 innings with five K's and two walks. He goes again tonight in Oakland against the A's and RH Kendall Graveman. Graveman showed flashes of promise the last two seasons, but has seriously regressed in 2016. The former Blue Jays draft pick is just 1-5 with an ugly 5.84 ERA in seven starts so far this season. But perhaps the biggest enigma with Graveman is the fact that Oakland's ballpark is considered one of the most pitcher-friendly in baseball and yet Graveman is just 2-6 with a 4.03 ERA in 13 career starts there.
SPS Investors
Seattle vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
This will be the rubber match between two first place teams as the Mariners and Orioles close their 3 game set from Camden Yards this afternoon.
In only his second season, Tyler Wilson has been impressive and has certainly caught the eye of manager Buck Showalter. Wilson used as both a starter and a reliever last year and this season he started by coming out of the bullpen, but now has been handed a starting spot. Often times this proves to be a costly mistake, bringing a young pitcher up through the ranks so quickly, however he has responded by pitching well and comes into the game with a sub three ERA. He's gone six and seven innings (respectively) over his last two starts, allowing two runs in each. He has shown some impressive stuff with his arsenal of pitches and the fact that the Mariners lineup doesn't have much experience against him should give Wilson a slight edge on the mound.
The Mariners will counter with Nathan Karns this afternoon. There is no much to really say about Karns this season. He has been consistent and seems to be getting better each and every time he steps on the mound. He has a respectable 1.34 WHIP and has even struck out more batters than he has innings pitched. That being said, this Baltimore lineup is extremely explosive, especially at Camden Yards. They have also lit up right handed pitchers going an impressive 23-9 in their last 32 attempts and also have one of the most impressive home records in the league. Dating back to last season, they are 21-7 in their last 28 games in Camden Yards.
Both teams come into this contest playing well, however the home field advantage for Baltimore simply cannot be ignored. To get them at home at this price shows a lot of value. If Wilson can continue pitching as well as he has, the O's bats should score enough runs off of Karns to come away with the victory.
Allen Eastman
Washington / New York Mets Under 6.5
This is a big game for the Nationals and the Mets on Thursday in an important divisional series. This game will feature Stephen Strasburg going up against Matt Harvey, and both pitchers are capable of dominating this game. The 'under' is 8-1 in the last nine meetings between these two teams in Citi Field and the 'under' is 19-6 in Washington's last 25 games against other teams from the N.L. East. The 'under' is 15-7 in Washington's last 22 road games, and this ballpark helps out the pitchers. Harvey is coming off a very bad start in Colorado, and I think that he is going to have a strong bounce-back effort here against the Nationals. And Strasburg is having an All-Star season that I think will continue. I wouldn't be surprised if this total is at 6.5 by game time here. But I still like the 'under' in this one as I think it will be a 3-2 or 4-1 game.
Sleepyj
Seattle / Baltimore Over 8.5
My numbers don't add up here for this game....I have this one rated at 10.5....That number isn't correct being the season is young, but I still feel a 9 line would be correct for this game..Neither pitcher does a whole lot for me...I can see the bats picking up here and Baltimore might actually have a good day here at home in impressive fashion...Prob for Baltimore is Wilson is "due" and I believe he gets bopped here today..Over is the only way I can look in this one..
Matt Fargo
Astros vs. White Sox
Play: Astros +170
The Astros have won the first two games of this series and they look for the sweep tonight which would be the first of the season. Houston has gotten off to a dreadful start but this is a great opportunity to get some momentum going and while many will be going against the Astros based on the pitching matchup, we are catching a great number based on that. The White Sox have dropped four straight games while also losing six of their last seven and they have seen their lead in the American League Central shrink to 2.5 games. With Chris Sale on the hill, Chicago should feel good about snapping their losing skid but we are going contrarian here based on what the teams are currently doing. Sale has yet to lose and Chicago is 8-0 in his eight starts but it certainly is not going to win every game he pitches and he has been the winner in every one of those. The fact that the White Sox are the biggest home consensus of the day only adds to the Astros value. Colin McHugh has been all over the place this season but he has gotten excellent run support and tonight represents his biggest underdog price to date. Going back, the Astros are 16-5 in his last 21 starts against teams with a winning record.
Mike Lundin
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland-142
I like the Cleveland Indians to complete the sweep of a four-game home-and-home series against the Cincinnati Reds Thursday night.
Josh Tomlin (5-0, 3.82 ERA) will take the ball for the Tribe, and Cleveland has won each of his six starts this year. They're 14-2 in Tomlins last 16 starts with last season included and the right-hander is coming off three consecutive quality starts.
The Reds turn to Tim Adleman (1-1, 3.38) who will make his first appearance against an American League opponent, and the timing could be better. The Indians' bats have torched Cincy for a total of 36 runs in the first three games of this series and Adelman was tagged for eight hits and three runs in five innings of Saturday's 4-3 loss at Philadelphia.
The Reds are 2-9 in their last 11 games after losing the first three games of a series and 1-5 in their last six interleague home games.
Scott Rickenbach
Chicago vs. Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +1½
The Cubs got the 2-1 win yesterday but that was just their 3rd win in their last 7 games. Also, as you can see, the victory came by just a single run so the Cubs run line is now only 2-5 in their last 7 games. In fact, their 2 wins prior to this tough stretch also came by just a single run for the Cubs so they are now on a 2-7 (22%) run on the run line at -1.5 runs. With that said, I certainly see great line value Thursday afternoon with the Brewers on the run line at +1.5 runs. The Brewers are "only" on a 6-5 overall run but 3 of those losses, including yesterday's defeat, have come by just a single run. That means that Milwaukee is on a 9-2 run at +1.5 runs. Both Jason Hammel of the Cubs and Junior Guerra of the Brewers are undefeated so far this season. Though Hammel has the better ERA note that Guerra has the better WHIP. The Brewers right-hander has allowed just 6 hits in his last 12 innings on the mound. Conversely, Hammel has given up 12 hits and 6 walks in his last 11 and 2/3 innings of work for a 1.54 WHIP. While the Cubs lineup has never seen Guerra, the Brewers have seen plenty of Hammel and they got to him for 4 runs in just 5 innings when they most recently faced him in September. This game has upset written all over it but I'll grab the +1.5 runs in case it's another tight 1-run game that goes the Cubs way.
Matt Josephs
Braves vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8
The Pirates and Braves finish their four game series in Pittsburgh on Thursday. Jeff Locke isn't great although he's facing Atlanta. The Braves are 2-11 vs. left-handed starters hitting .227 in those games while scoring three runs per contest. Last year Locke held Atlanta to one run and five hits over five innings of work at home. Mike Foltynewicz is in good form having allowed two runs and 12 hits in his last two starts against the Royals and Diamondbacks. Jason Rogers is the only batter to have seen the starter which is in his favor. Pittsburgh's offense has a lot of numbers in their favor scoring around five runs per game. Both bullpens are vulnerable, but I'm hoping the starters go deep. I think this one goes under the total.
Ben Burns
Dodgers vs. Angels
Pick: Angels
With five wins in their last six, the Angels have started to play much better recently. They won big yesterday and they should have an edge again tonight. Both starters earned victories last time out but Chacin was arguably much better. Making his Angels' debut, Chacin would alllow just two runs on only five hits, through seven innings. He didn't walk a single batter and he needed only 90 pitches to record 21 outs.
Stripling finally got his first "W" but he was far less efficient than Chacin. In just five innings, he allowed four runs on eight hits, while walking more (3) than he struck out. Stripling doesn't last long in games because opposing batters are destroying him the third time they go through the lineup.
That said, it should be noted the the Dodger bullpen has an ugly 5.24 ERA (1.412 WHIP) on the road, with four blown saves (on the road) already. The Angels' bullpen, by comparison, has blown one save at home while recording a 2.80 ERA (1.094 WHIP) here.
Chacin's teams are 10-5 his last 15 starts against the Dodgers. He's allowed three eanred runs or less the last three times that he's faced them and four or less his last six against them. Consider the Angels, listing Chacin and Stripling.
Power Sports
Dodgers at Angels
Pick: Angels
The only time that the Angels have lost to the Dodgers this week was w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound. As the series shifted to their home park Wednesday, the Halos really dominated, winning by a score of 8-1. When monitoring the line movement, I like what I've seen here & the Angels are look to be a solid value in this spot
The Dodgers are predictably drawing most of the early action for tonight's series finale, yet we've seen an increase in the money line from the Angels perspective. That's a sign to me that sharp money is taking the home side in this situation. As a road underdog of +125 or less, the Dodgers are now only 9-19 the last three seasons including 0-3 in 2016. So this has not been a friendly price range for them in the past.
Over the last seven games, the Angels offense has really woken up. They're averaging 6.4 rpg while batting a collective .313! That's bad news for Dodgers starter Ross Stripling, who twice in his last three starts hasn't lasted long, yet has still given up at least four runs. For the Angels, Jhoulys Chacin made a solid first impression after coming over from Atlanta as he allowed just two runs on five hits in his debut w/ the team last Saturday. Chacin has actually been pretty solid this year, save for one bad outing, as he's allowed 3 ER or less in each of his other five starts.
Wunderdog
Colorado @ St. Louis
Pick: Under 7.5
This is the third straight game for Colorado away from Coors Field, and the offense has taken a dive, scoring three total runs on the first two games of the trek. The Rockies have a good young arm going in 24-year-old Jon Gray, who has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched while walking only seven and striking out 36 in 28+ innings. He comes off 5-2 win over the NY Mets, allowing five hits in seven innings, one walk and eight Ks. Gray has a 1.38 on the road. The Cardinals snapped Colorado's five-game winning streak with a 2-0 victory Wednesday. St. Louis has a young ace on the hill in 24-year-old Mike Wacha (3.23 ERA). They haven't given him a lot of run support but he has thrown great, with 17 walks and 40 strikeouts in 47 innings. Wacha loves this park, with a 2.08 ERA at home this season, plus the last four years at home he's 14-4 with 2.69 ERA. The UNDER is 19-7 when these teams meet in St. Louis and this total is too high.