Stephen Nover
White Sox -188
This is the biggest price I've laid all season, but I think it's worth a small play to get behind Chris Sale, who has been just brilliant. Sale is 8-0 with a 1.67 ERA. That minuscule ERA shrinks even more to 0.99 during his past six starts. The southpaw has allowed just 22 hits in 45 1/3 innings during this span.
The White Sox haven't been swept all season and the Astros have been a terrible road team going 27-57 during their past 84 away games.
Astros starter Collin McHugh has an 8.74 road ERA in three starts and Houston's bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. Sale is 3-1 career-wise versus Houston with an 0.56 ERA in four lifetime starts. Houston has dropped eight of the last 10 when going against a lefty.
Steve Janus
Rockies vs. Cardinals
Play: Rockies +129
Play Against - Any team (ST LOUIS) - team with a good SLG (.430 or higher) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, in May games. This system is 51-21 (71%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.
Ray Monohan
Toronto Blue Jays -128
The Blue Jays head into Minnesota to be begin a 4 game set and the Jays hold the value here on Thursday. They send out Marco Estrada, who has been the Jays best pitcher despite his 1-2 record. Estrada has gotta no run support whatsoever, as 6 of his 7 starts have gone way under the total. Estrada has the ability to give the Jays length and really keep hitters off balanced, as he's done all year long.
On the Twins side of things Ervin Santana finally recorded his first win, but he's been a struggle for the most part. He has kept a lot of pitches up in the zone and been very vulnerable to the big inning.
Some trends to consider. Expect the Blue Jays to take full advantage of Santana here today. Given that, at this price, Toronto has value.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays -138
The Toronto Blue Jays are highly motivated for a victory Thursday night. They have lost five straight coming in, but now they have a great chance to get back on track against the AL-worst Minnesota Twins (10-29).
I'll gladly back Marco Estrada, who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. Estrada has gone 1-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in seven starts this season. In his last start against Minnesota, he gave up one earned run and four base runners in 6 2/3 innings of a 3-1 victory.
Ervin Santana is 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this season for the Twins. He is only averaging 4.9 innings per start thanks to allowing 44 base runners in 29 1/3 innings. Santana is 6-7 with a 3.70 ERA in 17 career starts against the Blue Jays. He gave up two homers in a 1-5 loss in his last start against Toronto.
Minnesota is 1-13 (-11.7 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season. The Twins are 7-24 (-14.7 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. The Twins are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Minnesota is 1-6 in Santana's last seven starts. The Twins are 0-6 in their last six home games. Toronto is 42-16 in the last 58 meetings.
Brandon Lee
Blue Jays -138
Toronto is too good of a team to continue to play as poorly as we have seen them play over their current 5-game losing streak. I like the Blue Jays chances of putting their skid to rest in the series opener against the struggling Twins tonight. Minnesota has lost 3 in a row and are just 2-11 in their last 13 overall. Toronto will send out one of their better starters in Marco Estrada, who has a 2.89 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 7 starts. The Blue Jays have won 4 of his last 5 starts against a team with a losing record and the Twins are just 1-10 in their last 11 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Jimmy Boyd
Nationals -112
Washington is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Mets on Thursday. The Nationals evened up the series with a 7-1 win yesterday, as they finally got their offense going after scoring just 3 runs in their previous 3 games combined. I look for Washington to build off that win behind another strong outing from ace Stephen Strasburg.
The Nationals are a perfect 8-0 in Strasburg's 8 starts this season, as he's compiled a 2.95 ERA and 1.073 WHIP to start 2016. He's been even better on the road, where his ERA is just 1.67. Strasburg also has a 2.78 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 9 career starts against the Mets.
New York will counter with Matt Harvey, who unlike Strasburg is off to a miserable start to the season. Harvey is just 3-5 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.532 WHIP over his first 8 starts and just gave up 5 runs on 11 hits in his last outing against the Rockies. The only reason the Nationals aren't a bigger favorite is because of what Harvey has done in the past.
Mets are just 18-36 in their last 54 when listed as a dog of +100 to +150 and 1-4 in Harvey's last 5 starts after scoring 2 or less runs in their previous game. Nationals are a dominant 21-6 in Strasburg's last 27 starts, 7-0 in his last 7 on the road and 8-0 in his last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Tony Karpinski
Rockies vs. Cardinals
Play: Rockies +127
Colorado can get back into the National League West race with a big win vs St. Louis. I fully trust Walt Weiss to bring his team ready to go on Thursday.
The usually very consistant, Matt Carpenter, has only been hitting .158 in the last 7 days at the end of the 5.18.2016 period, I'm not sure what's going on with his swing, but it's not been effective. He's been popping them off the tip of his bat, and dribbling up the field.
Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series
Dave Price
Los Angeles Angels -119
The Los Angeles Angels have gotten back on track this series against the Los Angeles Dodgers in winning two of the first three games with their only loss coming to Clayton Kershaw. I expect them to take Game 4 and the series tonight. They have scored 15 runs in their two wins and should tee off against Ross Stripling, who is 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA in 7 starts this year, and 1-1 with a 5.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. Jhoulys Chacin came over to the Angels and had a great start in his first outing. He gave up 2 earned runs and 5 base runners in 7 innings of a 9-7 win at Seattle on May 14. Chacin has had some nice success dating back to his time with Colorado against Los Angeles. He is 9-7 with a 3.75 ERA in 18 lifetime starts against the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 2-9 (-10.2 Units) against the money line in road games against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 54-28 (+21.5 Units) in their last 82 games against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN JOSE -½ +120 over St. Louis
We’re not betting the Sharks tonight because we have five units riding on the series but if you do not have a series bet, the Sharks come highly recommended. We have maintained that the Blue Notes have had nothing but good fortune on their side this entire playoff year. They were outplayed by Chicago in the first round and also outplayed by Dallas in the second round. In the two seven-game series prior to this round, the Blue Notes were outshot in 10 of 14 games and most of them were by a wide margin. The Blues were dominated in Game 1 of this series after the first period by getting outshot the rest of the way by a 24-12 count. Game 2 in St. Louis saw the Blues out-shoot the Sharks, 26-24 but let us point out that the Blues had six power-play opportunities. 12 of their 26 shots came with the man advantage. San Jose will not take six minors here. They are very likely going to have more PP opportunities than the Blues because the game is in San Jose and because the Blues have been the NHL’s most penalized team in both the regular season and playoffs. St. Louis has been the second best team on the ice in 12 of their 16 playoff games thus far.
The Sharks have been a possession monster this entire season. That includes the playoffs in which the Sharkies eliminated two other possession monsters, Los Angeles and Nashville. The Sharks also have several players playing the best hockey of their careers, which includes Brett Burns, Joe Thornton and Joel Ward among others. The Sharks have completely frustrated the Blues for five straight periods. They have also outworked, outplayed and out-everything else and it would be rather unreasonable to expect anything different now that the series switches to San Jose. This is actually a bigger mismatch than the Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay series and it’s not in the Blues favor.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +170 over L.A. Dodgers
Sometimes you just have to roll with a hot-hitting team and that applies to the Angels right now. The Halos took the opener of this series last night, 8-1. They have now scored 10, 7, 9, 3, 7, 1 and 8 runs in five of their past seven games. The only times they did not score more than four over that span occurred against Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw. The Angels will face Ross Stripling here. Prior to this season, Stripling did not pitch above Double-A. He went from Double A to the majors and unless a pitcher is outstanding, there is a price to pay for jumping over Triple-A. Stripling is not outstanding. Save for a 48% groundball tilt, his base skills have not been good and his 8% swing and miss rate and 58% first-pitch strike rate don't give hope for a command surge. Stripling has a 4.32 ERA after posting a 2.65 ERA after his first three starts. His xERA since his first three starts is 5.47. Stripling has decent stuff but he’s not overpowering and he does not have enough seasoning to thrive. There are going to be many more bumps in the road for Stripling and this could surely be one of them.
Jhoulys Chacin brings an unsightly 4.81 ERA with him to this start, though most of the damage was done in his final Atlanta outing, in which he gave up eight runs in less than five frames. His skills to date—9.1 K’s/9, 2.1 BB’s/9, 50% grounders are better than the results. The only question is whether Chacin’s broad repertoire and outstanding command can win out over his less-than-overwhelming stuff and velocity. With a BB/K split of 8/31 over 33 innings and a positive change of scenery, we’re very willing to ride Chacin here but more willing to ride the hot bats of the Angels.
MINNESOTA +127 over Toronto
Where do we start? Projected to be one of the greatest offenses this league has ever seen, the Blue Jays are batting a mere .234 after 42 games. Only one team in baseball, the San Diego Padres, has a lower team batting average than the Blue Jays. There is very little chance of the Jays staying so low over the entire year but for now, every single player is gripping the bat a little bit tighter. Toronto has lost five in a row while allowing 6, 7, 13, 12 and 6 runs against over that span. Aside from not hitting, the Jays bullpen is overtaxed and now they’re a significant road favorite because Marco Estrada starts and he has a 2.89 ERA after seven starts.
Estrada’s surface stats are very good and they are now in the second straight year of being very good. However, Estrada’s 4.06 xERA and 4.21 xERA over his last five starts is a more accurate account of what he’s capable of. A miniscule hit % combined with his high 79% strand rate and very low 0.8% hr/f have all combined to deflate his surface ERA. Estrada is a fly-ball pitcher and fly-ball pitchers generally have a much higher hr/f rate than what Estrada is showing right now. As soon as the weather warms up, those long fly-balls are going to start leaving the yard and Estrada’s ERA will rise. It's sunny and warm in Minnesota today. While Estrada is striking out more batters because he’s utilizing his very good changeup more, it’s only a matter of time before hitters catch on and sit back on that overused pitch. The truth about Marco Estrada is that nearly half his metrics are on a steady decline. Some people are going to pay for his low surface ERA at the betting window today. Don’t let it be you.
Minnesota isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either with a lousy 10 wins in 39 games but the Twins are not THIS bad. Minnesota has scored six runs or more in four of its last six games but they are not getting the starting pitching to complement it. That could change today with Earvin Santana going. Santana has 27 K’s in 29 innings after just six starts. His season began in July last year thanks to an 80-game PED suspension. Santana started poorly, coughing up 11 HR in 55 innings but he roared down the stretch with just one HR allowed over his final 7 starts. Particularly given his hiatus, this skill set looks remarkably stable, which has continued this year. Santana’s velocity is up to 92 MPH and his swing and miss rate is also above league average at 11%. This is of course just one game in which anything can happen but we’re after value and in that regard, the Blue Jays are playing poorly, they’re playing under immense pressure and they continue to be ripe to get beat. Minnesota has too many good players to be underachieving at this rate so a correction to the good is forthcoming to its W/L record.
Will Rogers
Toronto vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland
The Toronto Raptors had no answer for Cleveland in Game 1, allowing the Cavs to jump out to a 66-44 lead at halftime. Toronto has already accomplished more in 2016 than ever before, and this looks like a Raptors squad that his just happy to be here.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Raptors have failed to cover in five of their last six on the road, while Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in it's last four home games. Toronto has only covered the spread three times in it's last 12 overall.
2. LeBron James - The King scored just 24 points in Game 1, but he shot 11-of-13 from the field. He only played 28 minutes, and he comes into Game 2 well rested, as healthy as he's been at this point of the season as we've ever seen him. I expect 30+ points from LeBron tonight.
3. X-Factor - The Cavs demolished the previous record for the most three-pointers in a game in their series versus Atlanta, but they were just 7-of-20 from beyond the arc in Game 1. That might have been expected coming off a long layoff, but don't be surprised if that percentage goes up in Game 2.
Zack Cimini
Toronto vs. Cleveland
Pick: Toronto
Toronto played the role everyone expected in game one of a beaten up team that has faced a gamut of minor injuries along with the loss of JV.
They were ill-prepared for the level of offense that Cleveland has displayed in the playoffs versus what they saw in the regular season.
Now, Tuesday oddsmakers were left no choice but to increase the spread to a whopping twelve points.
I see this is as an entry point to take a shot on the Raptors. Toronto's a team that's no stranger to game one losses, as they've lost each round in game one.
Coach Casey has made a gamut of adjustments each series to keep his Raptors fighting and I expect that tonight.
As great as Cleveland's played in the playoffs they've been on the 50/50 side of garnering covers late in fourth quarters.
Expect the Raptors to play with a higher sense of urgency with the main goal of getting back to Toronto with confidence.
Cory Joseph who has shot 4 for 21 in his last three games should bolster the Raptors chances tonight.
Ian Cameron
New York at Oakland
Play: New York +105
Ivan Nova has been as good as the Yankees could have hoped for since being inserted into the starting rotation on a spot start basis with Luis Severino on the DL. Nova has allowed just two runs in 10.1 innings over a pair of starts against Kansas City and the Chicago White Sox. Nova should be able to pitch fairly well here against Oakland as he has allowed just five runs in 13.2 innings of work previously against the Athletics here in this ballpark. All that Nova needs to do is pitch his way through five or six innings and let the dominant back end of New York's bullpen take over with their power arms Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and closer Aroldis Chapman all set up to close out the game if the Yankees hold a lead in the latter stages. Kendall Graveman has not been able to find his footing or any sort of rhythm. He’s been hit hard repeatedly (5.84 ERA) and things have gotten worse for him in recent starts with 20 runs allowed over his last 19.1 innings of work. Graveman has issued six walks and struck out just three in his last two outings. Oakland is a dismal 1-6 in Graveman’s seven starts this season and a winless 0-3 at home. In fact, Graveman is just is just 2-6 with a 4.03 ERA in 13 career starts in Oakland. I’ll side with the small road underdog tonight.
Jim Feist
Indians at Reds
Play: Indians
The Cleveland Indians put up 28 runs in a pair of dominating victories in their half of a home-and-home series against the Cincinnati Reds and kept the hits coming when the series shifted. The Reds have dropped six of their last seven games to fall 10 games under .500 (15-25). Indians RH Josh Tomlin (5-0, 3.82 ERA) has been sharp and the Indians are 20-8 in their last 28 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. And the Reds are 7-21 in their last 28 interleague games.
Harry Bondi
OAKLAND -120 over NY Yankees
We have made a ton of money in baseball this season going with and against the California based teams and tonight we will do it again going with the hot Oakland A's. They have won four in a row and five of their last six thanks to some scorching bats that are averaging over six runs a game the last 6 games. They're coming off a three-game sweep of Texas and face a Yankees team that has lost 9 of their last 11 road games. Oakland swept New York in a 3 game series in the Bronx in April and continue their winning ways tonight!