Bruce Marshall
Toronto at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
The Twins have found some offense within the past week and have usually had success against tonight's pitching foe, Toronto's Marco Estrada, who has a 5.79 career ERA at Target Field. Minnesota starter Ervin Santana was very sharp in his last start, allowing just one run and five hits over 6 IP in a 6-3 win at Cleveland last Saturday.
Cajun Sports
New York vs. Oakland
Play: Under 8.5
The Yankees will send right-hander Ivan Nova to the bump with his 2-1 record and an ERA of 3.70 on the season. The Athletics will counter with a right-hander of their own with Kendall Graveman who is 1-5 on the season with an ERA of 5.84. The Yankees are 0-4-2 Under their last six away from Gotham and facing a right-handed starter. NYY are 5-12-2 Under their last nineteen when playing the first game of a series. We want to play Under when the Athletics are playing at home and facing a team with a record below .500 on the year. Our BbTPR Index projects a game total average of 4.23 runs. The BbMM projects a game total differential of -3.85 runs against a game total range of 8.0 to 9.5. With solid support for the low side we will play this one to fall below the oddsmakers total on Thursday night.
Brad Wilton
There is some controversy over the total in Game One, as late line moves are showing the game as an Over, but of course the opening line, and the line through most of the day has the final score as an Under, and that is how I am going to go about this analysis, as an Under in Game One.
To me it's highly-doubtful that Toronto only scores 84-points in this game, so my inclination is to look Over the total here in Game Two, as Cleveland has now scored triple-digits in ALL 9 of their playoff contests, and 19 in a row dating back to the regular season!!!
Assuming the Cavs reach that century mark once again - and that is not very much of a stretch - there is strong chance we have a no-doubt-about-it Over at Quicken Loans Arena on Thursday.
Look for Cleveland to once again be in the 100's, and for Toronto to do their best to keep pace.
Game Two Over the total this Thursday night.
4* TORONTO-CLEVELAND OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Cavaliers to blast the Raptors in Game Two of the East Finals.
Not really sure how you can build a case for Toronto?!?!
The fact the Raptors have played back-to-back seven game series' showed on Tuesday when they could not stay close at the Quicken Loans Arena, falling by 31-points.
Expect Toronto to close the gap a little tonight, but not enough to cover.
Cleveland has played just 9 games this postseason, and are in full health. They have also won all 9 games this postseason with 6 covers.
The Cavs are 4-1 against the spread at home this postseason, and they are riding a 4 game cover streak on their home hardwood.
As for the Raptors, they have won outright just twice in their six playoff road games, and have failed the pointspread in each of their last 3 on the postseason road.
Another double-digit win and cover looms for Cleveland.
5* CLEVELAND
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 59-44 run with free picks: Colorado (+125) at ST. LOUIS
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free play is on the Colorado Rockies, in St. Louis against the St. Louis Cardinals, and I want you listing both scheduled starters: Jon Gray and Michael Wacha. By name recognition, you'd think the line would be bigger, and Wacha would be a play. But the right-hander isn't laying a big number at home simply because he has been a disappointment. It's worth the price to invest in Gray.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Granted, Wacha hasn't received much help from his teammates during the worst losing streak of his career, and even though he is facing a team I think he might normally dominate, I think he struggles again. He is winless in his last four starts, having allowed 14 runs (10 earned) over 25 innings. I'd rather take Gray, who will be pumped after earning his first Major League win thanks to a stellar fastball and slider while striking out eight Mets at Coors Field. He has 24 strikeouts against 10 hits in his last three starts.
BOTTOM LINE is - St. Louis took a 2-0 victory yesterday, snapping the Rockies' five-game winning streak. Colorado will look to exact revenge tonight at Busch Stadium tonight, and with the underdog price, and this being a freebie, why not take a shot.
3* ROCKIES
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Minnesota Twins, plus the money against the struggling Toronto Blue Jays.
I won't get into this too much, but the fact is, Toronto just lost a series at home, where it usually dominates, and now it has to hit the road. A lot of times, when spirits are low and there is no motivation, worse thing you can do is go to an inferior team's ball park, because you don't get up as much.
I'd feel better about a Blue Jays team on a five-game skid going to see the Orioles or Red Sox. But in Minnesota, where it may not fire up in the lid-lifter, you have to look at the dog.
2* MINNESOTA
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Oakland Athletics against the New York Yankees, as I side with the A's for a second straight day with my complimentary selection.
The A's are in on a four-game win streak, after a sweep of the Texas Rangers, and are sitting four back of division-leading Seattle, while the Yankees are in after a rugged series in Phoenix against the Diamondbacks. I say rugged, because that desert heat can be relentless, and now they don't get time to rest and adapt to the Bay Area chill at night.
Look for the A's to use their win streak as motivation to continue to drive forward and make a move in the division. Forget the pitchers, the momentum is in Oakland's favor today.
3* ATHLETICS
OC Dooley
Blues +125
This Western Conference championship series is tied at 1-1 on the heels of Tuesday's 4-0 road victory by San Jose. But according to St. Louis HEAD COACH Ken Hitchcock who once piloted a Stanley Cup Champion (in 1999) his Blues actually have played better on the ROAD as opposed to on their own ice (just 4-5 at home so far in the postseason). A few nights ago St. Louis goalie Brian Elliott stopped 20 of 23 shots on goal (one tally was an empty-netter) and it should be noted that prior to Tuesday Elliott was on a serious 4-0 roll versus San Jose with a 1.29 goals against average
DWAYNE BRYANT
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Play: San Francisco Giants -140
The Giants are the hottest team in baseball, winners of seven straight games. They've beaten the Padres all five times they've faced them this season. I don't see any compelling reasons why they won't beat San Diego again tonight.
Jeff Samardzija gets his second crack at the Padres in 2016 tonight. On 04/27 at San Francisco, the Padres roughed up Samardzija for five runs in 5 2/3 innings. I expect the righty to make the necessary adjustments and produce a strong outing tonight.
James Shields is also getting his second shot at the Giants in 2016 tonight. Shields tossed seven innings of one-run, three-hit baseball at the Giants on 04/26. I'm expecting the Giants hitters to make the appropriate adjustments and plate more than the one run they managed in that first meeting.
The Giants have the better bullpen, the better offense, they're better defensively, and the have dominated the Padres recently. Again, I see no compelling reasons why the result tonight would be any different.
BUSTER SPORTS
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Toronto Raptors +8.5 1st Half
Toronto came out ready to play in Game 1 of the final scoring the first 7 points, but Cleveland had a 22-2 first-half run which was basically game over for the Raptors. As Cleveland took a 22 point lead to the locker room. DeRozan ended up with 18 points and Lowry had just 8 points on 4 of 14 shooting from the floor. We believe the all star backcourt will have a better Game 2. After the blowout loss on Tuesday we believe the Raptors will play defense right from the start and make this a very slow tempo game with every possession meaning something. During the 2016 postseason, the Raptors have bounced back to win Game 2 in each of the previous rounds. Normally this would be a free play on the Raptors plus the points but in watching both teams all year we just can't trust the Raptors for the full game especially on the road. Too many times we have seen Toronto play an excellent first half, only not to show up for the second. It has already happened 3 times in these playoffs. The Raptors have won the first half and went on to lose the game. We believe they will play a better first half again tonight and maybe even hang with the Cavs for the game but for us there is huge value on the halftime line. In the first game the line was 7, tonight it has gone up a full point and half. That's what we call huge value. With the Raptors really playing for some respect after Tuesday's beat down we are going to take the Raptors plus the 8 1/2 for the first half.