Free Picks for Thursday, May 25th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Rickenbach
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -139
As long-time followers know, I don't like to lay big prices in money line sports and am a huge proponent of underdog value. However, this spot is taking advantage of a moderate price (certainly not a huge favorite) in a situation where we have a solid pitching edge based on the match-up. While the Cardinals Michael Wacha has a much lower ERA than the Dodgers Kenta Maeda, their WHIP stats are nearly identical. In other words, Maeda has simply been a victim of some bad luck and a few big hits. The Dodgers right-hander has actually been pitching well and, particularly of late, he's on fire on the mound! Additionally, he was rock solid against the Cardinals in his lone start against them (last season) while Wacha has been hit hard in his two most recent starts versus the Dodgers and he was fortunate more runs weren't scored against him. Wacha gave up 18 hits in just 10 innings spanning his two starts against the Dodgers last season. Maeda allowed only 5 hits in nearly 6 innings of work against the Cards in his lone start against them last season and that outing was in St Louis. Maeda will prove even tougher to hit at home where he has a 0.99 WHIP this season. Also, the Dodgers right-hander comes into this outing having allowed only 13 hits in the 20 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Wacha has a 1.50 WHIP in his road starts this season and I look for the Dodgers to bounce back after getting crushed 6-1 last night. Prior to that defeat the Dodgers had won 5 of their last 6 while the Cardinals had lost 5 of their last 6. The Cards are still just 6-9 against teams with a winning record this season and LA is still a solid 17-8 at home this year.
Scott Spreitzer
Rockies vs. Phillies
Play: Rockies -114
Colorado continues to win on the road and now is 18-7 away from Coors Field this season after its 7-2 win over the Phillies on Wednesday. The Rockies have won four in a row and eight of their last 10 games overall and nine of their last 11 road contests. Tyler Anderson had a bad April, but in three starts in May he has allowed six runs with 25 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings, including a road win at Cincinnati on Friday when he gave up two runs and four hits in six innings. Philadelphia has lost five in a row and has scored a total of only five runs its last four games, three of which have been at home at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Vince Velasquez is 2-4 with a 5.98 ERA and the Phillies have lost six of his eight starts and he has allowed 14 runs (13 earned) and 19 hits his last three outings in 17 1/3 innings. Velasquez has made it through seven innings just four times in 32 career starts.
Darryl Tucholski
Cavaliers vs. Celtics
Play: Under 216
The Celtics have failed to score 100 in 2 of the last 3 games against Cleveland. With Thomas done for the season, the Celtics will need smart possessions, which means they'll need to set up their plays. Expect sound defense on both sides of the court tonight.
Art Aronson
Cavaliers vs. Celtics
Play: Under 215½
Game 4 stayed “under” the number and we think that all signs once again point to a lower-scoring affair in Game 5. Boston played admirably without Isaiah Thomas in the line-up in Game 3 and somehow managed to gut out the victory. The C’s weren’t able to maintain that momentum in Game 4 though as the Cavaliers would pull away in the second half for the convincing victory. Now down 3-1, the demoralized and undermanned Celtics have a big hill to climb and frankly, we don’t think they have anything left in the tank. Cleveland is now within striking distance of the Finals and looked better defensively in Game 4 after the epic collapse in Game 3. Note that Cleveland has seen the total go UNDER the number in 15 of its last 27 when leading in a playoff series, while Boston has seen the total go UNDER in ten of 16 this season following a loss by ten points or more.
Marc Lawrence
Pirates vs. Braves
Play: Pirates -106
Edges - Pirates: Nova 31Ks and 4 BBs last seven starts… Braves: Colon 6.38 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season; and 1-3 last four home team starts during May. With the Pirates 15-7 the last 22 games in this series, we recommend a 1* play on Pittsburgh.
Larry Wallace
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -187
I like the Indians in this match-up against the Reds. Mike Clevinger is 2-1 this year with a 1.59 ERA. Tim Adleman is 0-2 so far this year on the road with a 11.37 ERA. Also, Adleman is 2-2 overall this year with a 6.75 ERA. Cleveland is 4-1 in their last 5 games overall. While the Reds are 0-6 in their last 6 games on the road.
Jesse Schule
Senators vs. Penguins
Play: Under 5
The Senators forced a Game 7 by winning 2-1 on home ice in Game 6. Craig Anderson has been dominant in these playoffs, allowing just three goals in the first three games of this series. He should bounce back after a bad game here in Game 5 in Pittsburgh. Here is what I said before Game 3: "The Penguins head to Ottawa with this Eastern Conference Final tied at 1-1. Game 2 was a goaltenders duo, with Marc-Andre Fleury edging out Craig Anderson by stopping all 23 shots he faced. The Penguins didn't beat Craig Anderson until late in the third period, and Anderson has been brilliant in both games so far. I expect to see another low scoring defensive battle here in Canada's Capital tonight. These two teams have failed to reach the total in four straight meetings, and the under is 5-0 in the Senators last five Conference Finals games. The under is 30-12-2 in Senators last 44 home games." The last Game in Pittsburgh went over the total, but these two teams only combined to score four goals total in the first two games of this series. With both teams now facing elimination, I expect another low scoring battle.
Dustin Hawkins
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -101
Brewers pitcher Zach Davies started the season with an 0-3 record and 8.79 ERA. He has gone 5-0 with a 3.94 ERA in six starts since.DAVIES is 20-13 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 18-12 against the money line in night games this season.
TJ Pemberton
Angels vs. Rays
Play: Under 8½
Key Betting Trends:
Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Under is 10-2 in Rays last 12 during game 4 of a series.
Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 during game 4 of a series.
Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 Thursday games.
Free Betting Pick: Play on the UNDER
The Angels are playing good ball as of late but they struggle to score run. Los Angeles ranks 24th in the MLB in runs per game and will face a tough Andriese. Andriese is coming off of his worse start of the season but has been solid in all his other starts. Look for this one to cruise UNDER the posted total
Tony Karpinski
Mariners vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -138
Gonzalez starts hot off the plate, and the ball doesn't tail back over into a batters hot spot. 2B Daniel Murphy continues his resurgence - he has not been held in check with a massive 20 hits over the last 10 games, as of the 5.21.2017 period. Seattle needs to step it up and try to make this blistering hot batting team pay - but a poor defensive team like Seattle - not happening. It's hard to imagine a veteran power hitter like Nelson Cruz at 36 years old, is going to make too much of a difference here for Seattle. Former 40 HR hitter, Cruz, also doesn't provide great value with his slow speed on the bags, sitting just barely in the middle on the team. Seattle is in serious trouble vs Washington. No Cano= not many runs for the Mariners. Take the Washington Nationals
Jimmy Boyd
Mariners vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -138
I got no problem laying a little extra juice here with Washington, as I actually think this is great value given the direction of these two teams right now and the starting pitching matchup that's going in this one. The Nationals are one of the elite teams in baseball and enter having won 3 straight with the offense showing a ton of life the last 2 with 15 runs on 22 hits. Seattle on the other hand has scored exactly 1 run in 5 straight games, getting outscored 40-5 during this stretch.
Washington will be sending out Gio Gonzalez, who despite his recent struggles is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA in 9 starts this season. He hasn't been struggling at home, where he owns a sensational 1.41 ERA in 5 starts. The Mariners counter with Ariel Miranda, who has a 5.87 ERA over his last 3 starts and an ugly 6.65 ERA and 1.570 WHIP in 5 road outings this season.
Brandon Shively
Cardinals at Dodgers
Pick: Over 7.5
The Dodgers and Cardinals are two of the top four offenses in the National League when it comes to offensive production against right handed pitching. Michael Wacha and Kenta Maeda aren't good enough to justify a total of only 7.5 with those offenses up against them.
Look for both teams to get quite a few baserunners in this one and cash in enough times to get this past the posted total.
Jim Feist
Senators at Penguins
Pick: Senators
Ottawa has played the defending champs even in the series through the first six games. They are #10 in the NHL in goals allowed, a great stat for a winner take all Game 7. The Senators are 7-3 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh's defense has been banged up and the Penguins are 2-5 in their last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Robert Ferringo
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Play: Over 9
In this free play I'm simply betting against two bad pitchers. This is the final game of a four-game rivalry series and I think both lineups will be ready to cut loose. Tim Adleman has been awful for the Reds, posting a 6.19 ERA on the season and giving up 13 runs in his last 11 innings of work. In fact, he has allowed 21 runs in his last 22 innings of work over his last five starts and the "over' is 6-3 in his last nine. Mike Clevinger is coming off a rare great start, allowing just two hits in seven shutout innings at Houston. Clevinger has been an on-again, off-again starter, though, and I don't expect any type of consistency from him. The "over" has hit in six of seven games between these two and the "over" is 20-8 in Cincinnati's last 28 games overall. They've been playing "over" all season long, and I can see one of these lineups blowing up for seven or more runs in this series finale.