Allen Eastman
Detroit at Houston
Play: Under 9
Justin Verlander is on the mound for the Tigers. After a great start his ERA is up to 4.39. He is a much better pitcher than that. Verlander has four of five quality starts. But I think he is primed for a dominating effort here. Mike Fiers has just a 3.50 ERA at home on the season. He has been much better at home than on the road. Three of his last five games have gone "under". The "under" is 4-0 in Detroit's last four road games and the "under" is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. The "under" is also 4-1 in Houston's last five home games, and I see a tough game between two of the top teams in the American League. This one will be 4-1 and I see this one going "under".
Indian Cowboy
Detroit vs. Houston
Play: Houston -120
This is a Houston team that has been on a tear after a slow start last year and you can tell they have been motivated from the opening pitch. One person that has not particularly done well for this team even though the team has been phenomenal is Mike Fiers. Fiers is 1-2 with a 5.14 era thus far and this is a far cry for a pitcher who was 11-8 with a 4.48 era last year and a 3.89 era the year before in Milwaukee and 3.32 and 2.13 era the years before that. Fiers has pitched better of late in giving up just 4 hits at New York against a red-hot Yankee team in 5.2 innings and only 1 earned run in 6 innings against the defending AL Champs in Cleveland. We like Fiers to keep pitching well but to pick up the win this time around against a Astros team that faces Verlander off a big Texas win but likely in for a classic let down against a Houston team that will get up to face him. We like Houston 6-4 on Thursday Night.
Vernon Croy
Texas at Boston
Play: Over 9
This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and this pitching match-up greatly favors the over here Thursday night. The Red Sox have hit .373 as a team lifetime against Martinez with an OBP of .458, and a slugging percentage of .686. Martinez has also struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 5.51, and opponents hitting .304 against him. Martinez was lit up in his only start at Fenway last season, lasting just 4.1 innings while giving up 11 hits and 6 earned runs. The Rangers have hit .288 as a team lifetime against Pomeranz with an OBP of .333 and he has struggled during the month of May with an ERA of 6.06 over 4 starts (16.1 innings) with opponents hitting .308 against him. Play the OVER with confidence and make sure you get on my premium MLB picks as my 17-11 +$1,441 run and long term 100-81 +$4,210 MLB run continues this week.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado -1½ +147 over PHILADELPHIA
Lots of moving parts here. First, the Rockies are red-hot, they’re annihilating the Phillies and they’re going to come to the park today almost knowing that they’re going to win again. By contrast, the Phillies are seeing BB gun pellets at the plate and their mindset today is very likely that they’re going to lose again. The Phillies have lost three straight to the Rocks, four in a row overall and eight of their last nine games. In the first three games of this series, the Phillies have scored five runs and yesterday they were down 7-0 early and mustered a mere three hits the entire game.
Vincent Velasquez might be the Phillies best pitcher but right now, the Phillies are playing and hitting too poorly to get behind any of their starters. Velasquez has 45 K’s in 44 innings but he’s walked 20 and his control is not showing any signs of improvement. His 5.98 ERA is definitely in line for improvement but again, we have to wait for another day to get behind this starter, as this wager is all about riding the hot hand of the Rockies and fading the ice-cold Phillies.
Then there’s Tyler Anderson and 6.00 ERA, which is also in line for improvement because Anderson’s skills have been outstanding. Anderson’s rough stats have been driven up by a 33% hit rate, 62% strand rate, and 24% hr/f. Both his aggregate skills and command sub-indicators (13% swing and miss rate, 66% first-pitch strike rate) have been very good. He has a BB/K split of 16/49 in 48 innings to go along with an increasing groundball rate that has gone from 41% to 45% and was at 71% in his last start. Tyler Anderson’s xERA of 3.40 makes him a premium buy low target that we’re going to move in on here.
San Francisco +107 over CHICAGO
Eddie Butler has a 1-0 record after two starts with a 2.00 ERA. The Cubbies picked up Eddie Butler as an additional depth option behind LHPs Mike Montgomery and Brett Anderson in an expected competition for Chicago‘s fifth starter spot. However, after Anderson was injured, Butler moved into the rotation but his history and skills say not to trust him for a second. Butler has struggled with command issues and showed a failure to limit hard contact, with high line-drive and HR rates, in multiple previous MLB trials. He has a BB/K split of 8/8 in nine frames. His career xERA is 5.44 and this year in a very small sample size it is 5.22. The books are dangling this proverbial carrot on the Cubbies at home at a low price and we’re pretty sure many are going to take the bait. Try not to.
It’s tough not to wince when looking at Jeff Samardzija’s 4.57 ERA through his first 61 innings of 2017. A strong September 2016 (2.95 ERA, 10.3 K’s/9) gave a glimmer of hope for a rebound to pre-2015 performance, but the results, at least in terms of ERA, haven’t been there thus far. However, we’re paying great attention to the underlying metrics because they are screaming out at us. A healthy dose of misfortune has obscured Samardzija’s tremendous skills. Samardzija continues to do a fine job of limiting free passes with just 10 issued in 61 innings. He is racking up strikeouts like never before thanks largely to two pitches generating a swing and miss rate of 18% or better (slider: 19% splitter: 18%). He has also utilized those two offerings more than he did in 2016 (slider usage: +5 to 21%; splitter usage: +6% to 14%). The extremely wide disparity between ERA and xERA highlights just how snakebitten he has been with regard to strand %, hr/f and, to a lesser extent, hit %. Samardzija has made some pretty drastic changes in his pitch mix compared to 2016. Along with the aforementioned alterations, the 32-year-old has increased his sinker usage while scaling back his four-seamer and cutter (sinker: up 9% to 35%; four-seam: down 8% to 15%; cutter: down 13% to 5%). This helps to explain the sudden strikeout boost that has seen him whiff 71 batters in 61 frames this year. The ERA isn't pretty right now, but Samardzija’s 2.99 xERA is in Clayton Kershaw territory and that makes him one if the best buy-low candidates in the game. We’ll put that to the test here, as this is a major pitching mismatch in the Giants favor.
Arizona -108 over MILWAUKEE
Zach Davies started the season with an 0-3 record and 8.79 ERA but he has gone 5-0 with a 3.94 ERA in six starts since so his stock is high. That makes us instant sellers because Zach Davies has not been sharp at all. Instead, he’s been lucky. Over his past six starts, opponents are batting .291 against him with 11 walks and 26 strikeouts. His 1.66 WHIP on the year is atrocious. Davies’ marginal swing and miss rate (8%) likely caps his K rate. This is a starter with few dominant starts in his career. As that dominant start/disaster start split and his xERA shows, the "low ceiling, high floor" label does not fit here. Zach Davies has one “pure” quality start in nine tries this season.
Robbie Ray flashed some electric stuff in 2016 but while the strikeouts were there, the results (4.90 ERA) didn't match up with the skills (3.70 xERA) and he’s still being undervalued this year. Ray is missing even more bats this season, recording double digit swinging strikes in all but one of his starts. Ray has 65 K’s in 53 frames this year and his swing and miss stuff is legit. Ray possesses tantalizing stuff that leads to a lot of strikeouts. However, there is risk because he often struggles to throw strikes, a problem that has exacerbated in 2017. Furthermore, when batters make contact against Ray, they often do some damage, as he was ranked among the league leaders in hard contact allowed last year and is up near the top of the list again. That said, the Crew are slowing down in terms of their hitting and they matchup poorly against a strikeout pitcher like Ray. Collectively, the Crew have struck out more times than any team in baseball besides Tampa Bay so Ray should be mowing em down all night long.
Brandon Lee
Tigers vs. Astros
Play: Under 9
I'll take my chances here on this one staying UNDER the total of 9. I believe we are getting some value here with this number because of the poor road numbers for Tigers starter Justin Verlander. It's not like this is a backend of the rotation guy. Verlander arguably should have won the AL Cy Young last year and he's been throwing better of late and most importantly has owned the Astros, going 4-0 with a 2.05 ERA in 7 career starts against them. Houston will send out Michael Fiers who has a 5.14 ERA in 8 starts overall, but has a strong 3.50 ERA over 3 home starts and a 2.35 ERA over 4 career starts against Detroit.
Handicappers Hub
Giants vs. Cubs
Play:Cubs -116
I think that Butler will settle down today after walking 247872 batters in his first appearance and get out there and throw strikes and be aggressive against a very weak Giants lineup. I also love the Cubs getting to Samardzija all day today and getting Butler plenty of run support to be able to be aggressive and get the home W!
Dennis Macklin
Rockies vs. Phillies
Play: Rockies -114
Colorado has been the MLB's best road team and will be sorry to see this currently 8-2 roadie end. Tyler Anderson's overall numbers aren't great but his last three starts were all quality outings in which he struck out 25 in just 17 2/3 innings of work. Vincent Velasquez is not getting anyone out and rocks a 7.00+ ERA in his home starts allowing 32 baserunners in 22 innings. Price looks TGTBT as other than playing to avoid a sweep, not much to recommend with the 4-17 May Phillies.
Buster Sports
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
Play: Detroit Tigers +111
The Tigers look to even up their 4 game series with the Astros tonight as they send RH Justin Verlander (4-3, 4.39 ERA) to the hill and he will face the Astros RH Mike Fiers (1-2, 5.14 ERA). We believe we have the better pitcher here tonight with Verlander and he has owned the Astros in his career with a 4-0 record and a 2.05 ERA. Fiers has pitched well against the Tigers in his career as well but of late he has lost his last 2 starts and is sporting a 4.32 ERA in his last 3 starts. We are getting plus money with what we believe is the better pitcher here which we will take. The only reason that this is not a paid play for us, is that we do have some concern with Verlander on the road as he is sporting an ugly 7.24 ERA in 5 road starts this year. Although tonight we believe he will have total confidence on the road as he is pitching against a team that he has not lost to.
The Prez
Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Colorado Rockies -120
The upstart Colorado Rockies close out a four game series in Philadelphia this afternoon. The Phillies send struggling Vince Velasquez to the mound to square off against Tyler Anderson of the Roks. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET under overcast skies at Citizens Bank Park.
Right-hander Vince Velasquez has been downright awful this year, a season that I projected he would shine, and while he still has some positives today's matchup at CBP against a Rockies team that is playing lights out isn't favorable. Velasquez can miss bats (24% K, 10% SwStr) and induce groundballs to keep the ball in the yard on hot summer nights in Philly, but his underlying peripherals suggest a ridiculous direction of negative regression. The Phils ace has won two games this season, he sports a 5.98 ERA and while his 4.11 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky it is by his own creation. Batters are squaring up Velasquez like never before in his career. Opponents have a 35-plus percent hard contact rating and are drawing nearly five walks per nine innings against the Philadelphia righty.
Velasquez' secondary pitchers are simply not fooling the opposing lineups. Consider that Vince has ratings of -3.84, -1.76, and -5.72. the aforementioned numbers are for his slider, curveball, and changeup, respectively. If Velasquez can somehow navigate his way through the opposing lineup the first or second time he is getting hit at a 50 percent hard contact rate the third time through batting orders.
Anderson is beginning to trend back to his career averages after a sluggish April in which he allowed four runs or more in his six turns. Like his teammates hot run at the plate the Rockies lefty has been solid in his May outings, especially his last three trips to the mound, surrendering just six overall runs with 25 punch-outs over just under 18 innings of work.
Velasquez was hit hard by a pedestrian Pirates lineup in his last start allowing five runs on seven hits over 5 1/3 frames.
The Roks are flush with players in the prime of their careers and could be compared to a team like the 2015 Royals. They are athletic have a tight bullpen and can put pressure on opposing defenses by putting the ball in play and threatening on the base paths.
Coach Bud Black has done wonders with the Rockies' bullpen. Consider that over the last five years the pen has ranked 28th or lower in all of baseball in efficiency, wins, losses, blown saves, holds and OPS against. The combination of Greg Holland, Jake McGee, Adam Ottovino, Chris Rusin and others are the key to the Rockies challenging the L.A Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks in September.
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Thursday is on the Under in the Detroit Tigers-Houston Astros game, as I think we're going to see a pitchers' duel.
Verlander comes in having won three of his last four starts, most recently firing seven quality innings against the Rangers on Saturday. He'll throw with confidence, as he's won his last three starts against Houston, including a complete game with 11 strikeouts last July.
As for Fiers, he steps to the hill after one of his best outings of the season, in which he held the Indians to two runs (only one of them earned) on two hits in six innings on Saturday. He did give up just one home run, but it snapped his streak of consecutive multi-homer-allowed games at six - which is a plus.
Play this one low.
3* Tigers/Astros Under
Jeff Benton
Thursday's comp play goes early on the Rockies and the Phillies to land Over the total.
Last night's game landed right on the closing number of 9 runs, but the fact remains the Rockies are still 7-2-1 Over the total their last 10 games contested, and the Over in this series also stands at 7-2-1 Over the total the last 10 times the teams have played one another!
The Phillies are 6-2-2 Over the total their last 10 games played, and today's starter Vincent Velasquez has seen the Over go 7-1 in his 8 season starts this year.
The Rockies counter with Tyler Anderson who owns a season ERA of 6.00, and the Over is 6-3 in his 9 starts this spring!
Bats to do some boppin' today at the Bank.
Colorado-Philadelphia to land Over the total.
5* COLORADO-PHILADELPHIA OVER
The Gold Sheet
Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Play: Cardinals +139
Michael Wacha (2.74, 1.15) is a six-inning pitcher, but he has been pitching very well. Cardinals play well on road, with an 11-7 mark. Kenta Maeda (5.03, 1.17) pitches well against light-hitting team like the Pirates, Padres and Phillies (his last three starts) and gets hit hard vs. better-hitting teams. He hadn't pitched more than five innings in any of those first four starts.
Mike Rose
Diamondbacks at Brewers
Play: Brewers +101
It sure looks awfully convenient to back the red hot D’backs in tonight’s series opener. Linemakers know this team has won 8/9 and been murdering the ball lately, right? Even with that the case, Ray has only been lined a negligible favorite against Davies even though he’s been at his absolute best on the road. Outside the desert, Ray has allowed only 13 hits and 3 ER while racking up an impressive 34:14 K/BB ratio. Those outputs pale in comparison when at home. That said, Davies has been a competitive arm for the Brew Crew leading Milwaukee to wins in each of his L/6 starts, and he received an average of 7.0 runs to work with over his L/3 starts leaving some room for error. Milwaukee is one of the best left-handed hitting team in the bigs (#6), and with Braun likely back in the lineup tonight, it will become even more of a bear for Ray to dissect. Losers of three in a row and off a mini sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays, I expect the Brewers to come out swinging and let the streaking Snakes know they won’t be pushed around in their own house.
Ian Cameron
Detroit at Houston
Play: Over 9
Justin Verlander flashes a decent 4.39 ERA but his walks per 9 innings are up, his strikeouts per 9 innings are down, his ground bell rate sits below 30% and his swinging strike rate is the lowest it has been since 2014. His road ERA also sits at 7.24 with 22 runs allowed in 27.1 innings to go along with 17 walks. Adding to it is the Tigers' mediocre bullpen which has a collective 5.08 ERA this season. With short stints by Detroit starters in the first two games of the series, it really puts the pressure on a declining Verlander to perform. Houston has averaged over five runs per game against righties this season and has the potential to hit that mark and some. Houston's Mike Fiers is an average at best starting pitcher who is capable of being hit very hard. He’s had a very uneven seasonwith a 5.14 ERA on the season and 17 home runs over just 42 innings. Should also note that Fiers owns a fairly strong "reverse split"; solid vs. lefties, very weak vs. righties. That's not an ideal profile vs. Detroit. In the end, I expect runs in bunches tonight in Houston.
Harry Bondi
LA DODGERS (-150) over St Louis
Tonight we lay a little more than we would like but feel its worth the extra investment with the Dodgers. LA was embarrassed last night by a Cardinals team that had lost 5 of their last 6 games. Kenta Maeda makes the start for the Dodgers in his first start since May 3rd when he went on the disabled list with hamstring issues. He has pitched well at home and against St Louis which Cardinal starter Michael Wacha has not won in his last four starts and has not pitched past the sixth inning this year!