DAVE COKIN
WHITE SOX VS. ROYALS
PLAY: ROYALS -1.5 +130
This is what is known as a square bet. Laying the runs line in baseball looks like easy money, as it’s basically always the better team with the better pitcher and all they have to do is win by two or more runs to produce a healthy profit.
Obviously, it’s not easy money, and if it really was, you wouldn’t be able to get those sometimes juicy dogs prices with the supposedly cinch winner.
Let’s just say I rarely take the bait on these types of wagers. But I’m going to take the plunge tonight as the White Sox and Royals open a weekend series in Kansas City.
The basis for my play here is the starting pitchers and what I’m pretty sure is the setup for the Royals as far as the game plan is concerned. Danny Duffy will be on the mound for KC, and while the White Sox have a pretty impressive stat line against lefties, I really like the way Duffy is throwing the baseball. Duffy will not go deep in this game, but he already knows that. He was lifted after 63 pitches in his most recent outing, and I would figure he’s on a roughly 75-80 max count here.
That’s not a bad thing. Duffy can let ‘er rip for perhaps five innings and then turn things over to the power arms in the Kansas City bullpen. Of course, I’ve got to bank on Duffy doing his thing for however long he’s in there. But again, I do like what I’m seeing from the southpaw and feel he has a good chance to limit the Pale Hose.
Miguel Gonzalez is off a terrific effort, and it was against these very same Royals. But if I’m bullish on Duffy, I’m pretty much just the opposite on Gonzalez. He’s a gritty guy who has maxed out on his marginal stuff over the past few years. But it’s my opinion that shutting down the same team in back to back starts is a bit much to ask from the limited Gonzalez.
I also like the way the Royals are swinging the bats. They’re actually a little shorthanded right now, but the bottom line is that the healthy KC hitters are mashing and I feel confident they can maintain the recent surge tonight.
The safer option here would be to create a -1 line, which can be accomplished by splitting the wager, half on the money line and half on the runs line. But I’m going to go ahead and push the envelope this one time, and I’ll go for the price with the Royals -1.5 this evening.
Rob Vinciletti
Lightning vs. Penguins
Play: Penguins -200
As seen by the grid below. Game 7 home teams have never lost in any round at 5-0 and 2-0 in the Conference finals in this exact Win to venue sequence. The Penguins as a team are 6-0 in a game 7 if they won game 6 and they are 8-0 home off a road favored win. Tampa is 5-21 on the road off a home dog loss and blew a big chance losing game 6 at home. Play The Penguins in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Baltimore at Houston
Play: Baltimore -104
Edges - Orioles: Kevin Gausman 2-0 last two away team starts during May; and Orioles 21-11 at night this season. Astros: Lance McCullers 12-22 at night this season. With Houston winless, 0-6, this season on Thursdays, we recommend a 1* play on baltimore.
Scott Spreitzer
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Blue Jays -104
I'm recommending a play on Toronto as the Jays look to take the rubber match with New York. The Jays will face C.C. Sabathia this afternoon. The veteran hurler has struggled in his two home starts this season, which falls right in-line with what he has done at home for the last few seasons. Sabathia really struggled in the Bronx in 2015, finishing with a 5.45 ERA & 1.49 WHIP in 14 starts. He allowed nearly 1 1/2 HRs per 9 IP in those starts and a BAA of nearly .290. Sabathia's been even worse through his first two home starts in 2016. The Jays have knocked the right-hander around the last four times they faced him and we expect more of the same today. J.A. Happ counters for the visitors and brings a solid 1.21 WHIP with him. Happ has allowed three runs or less in eight of his nine starts this season. The right-hander shut down the Yankees in a 7-2 Toronto win in April and he's posted fantastic numbers in five road starts on the season. We'll back the Blue Jays as they look to defeat the Yankees for the 10th time in their last 14 meetings.
Jim Feist
White Sox vs. Royals
Play: Under 8½
Chicago's offense has dipped during their 3-8 run and now they head out on the road. Their pitching is strong, No. 5 in baseball with a 3.31 ERA, No. 2 in the AL. 31-year old righty Miguel Gonzales starts here and is off a 2-1 loss to Kansas City, allowing 2 runs, no walks, 8 Ks. He threw 73 of 107 pitches for strikes Saturday. The under is 7-2-1 in the White Sox's last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Kansas City has been disappointing on offense, #26 runs scored, #23 in on base percentage and 18th in slugging. But they've been winning with great pitching and defense. 27-year old lefty Danny Duffy (2.12 ERA) has thrown well, being converted back to a starter. His team is 35-17-1 under the total when Duffy starts, including 26-10-1 under the total at home.
Art Aronson
Rockies vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 9½
A couple of struggling starters face off in this interleague contest, making the OVER a very legitimate investment opportunity. The Rockies turn to Jon Gray (1-2, 6.75 ERA) who was rocked for nine runs off eight hits and three walks over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Thursday. Unfortunately for Gray, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track as he’s already 0-2 with a ballooned 6.06 ERA away from friendly confines this year. The home side counters with Clay Buchholz (2-4, 5.92) who gave up four runs off five hits and four walks in a 4-2 loss to Cleveland on Friday. Buchholz has walked 24 batters this season and that’s nearly four walks per nine innings of work. Note that the veteran has been particularly horrible at home this year as well, going 1-3 with a deplorable 5.66 ERA. Consider a second look at the OVER in this one.
Matt Josephs
Brewers vs. Braves
Play: Under 8
We went to the well last night with the under in this series and will return to it on Thursday. Matt Wisler is 2-3 with a 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.012 in eight starts with five of them going under the total. The good thing about Wisler is how deep he goes in games which helps prevent an Atlanta bullpen meltdown. He has allowed just six runs in his last three starts. Milwaukee entered Wednesday night hitting .180 in their last seven games and .218 on the road. Wily Peralta has some ugly numbers with a 6.99 ERA in nine starts for the Brewers. He has made two decent starts his last two times on the road allowing five runs at the Mets and Marlins over 11 innings and change. Last year he held the Braves to one hit and two walks over four innings in Atlanta. Overall he has a 1.23 ERA in four starts against Atlanta. The Braves offense is pretty poor hitting .232 at home while averaging less then three runs per contest. The Brewers pen actually has good numbers as a unit.
Big Al
Tampa Bay vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Over
Just when you think the Lightning have all the momentum and are going to close out the series at home in game six, the Penguins come in and spoil the party. So now it's back to Pittsburgh for the final game of this series. And there's a pretty good chance that quite a few goals will be scored. In fact, seven goals have been tallied in each of the last three games of this series and a total of 27 pucks have found the net in the last four. In fact, only the first game of this series has gone under the total, so it really doesn't matter where these two teams play at this point. The over is 21-4-3 in the last 28 meetings and 12-3-2 in the last 17 meetings in Pittsburgh.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Chicago at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -150
Chicago right-hander Miguel Gonzalez is a fly ball pitcher who doesn't miss many bats and has always struggled with his command and control. In 2015, Gonzalez posted a 4.91 ERA and 5.01 FIP in 144.2 innings in Baltimore, and any hope for a career revival in Chicago is passing by each start. The 31-year-old is 1-5 with a career 4.15 ERA and 1.32 WHIP versus the Royals, and I expect those numbers to decline further after tonight's outing. Kansas City starter has looked solid in limited action this season, pitching 7 1/3-innings of shutout ball over two appearances.
From a technical standpoint, the Royals are 25-10 in their last 35 meetings with the White Sox, including 7-3 in the last ten meetings in Kansas City. Kansas City is also 7-3 in Danny Duffy's last ten outings against the White Sox. With Kansas City standing at 15-5 in its last twenty division games, 21-8 in Duffy's last 29 home starts, 11-4 in Duffy's last fifteen starts during game 1 of a series and 4-0 in Duffy's last four starts versus .501 or greater opposition, take the Royals and invest with confidence.
Sleepyj
Marlins / Rays Over 6.5
Lots of love for these two on the mound today..Well I don't buy Smyly at all and in fact I think he gets hit up here today at home..He has improved, but enough to post a 6.5 line...Fernandez is good, but on the road I have my doubts...Tampa is trying for a split here today and to get the lone home win in this series...Rays have left Smyly on an island with run support..I look for them to attack early and often here...7 runs seems a bit low here.
Chris Jordan
My free play for Thursday is off the early card, as I like the Pittsburgh Pirates to get things done on the Run Line, against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pittsburgh opened the series with Tuesday's 12-1 blowout, then topped the Diamondbacks 5-4 last night, the team's third straight win in this series, and 11th in the last 14 meetings.
The Bucs have also won three in a row overall.
First of all, the Snakes just loss a tough one last night, their second straight loss here. Now they're looking to rebound at what it actually 9:35 a.m. Phoenix time, after last night's late game?
That said, the Diamondbacks have to deal with Gerrit Cole today. He comes in after two straight starts in which he looked like his old self. He's tossed seven or more innings in two straight starts, after failing to do so over his first six starts. He is out to earn his fourth straight win by improving on his 3.10 ERA in three career outings against Arizona.
I don't think it really matter who is going, though, as the Bucs will win big here.
4* PIRATES -1.5
Will Rogers
Milwaukee vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
The Atlanta Braves have lost three straight, and they sit dead last in the NL East, 15 games back of the first place Nats. They wrap up a home series versus the Brewers on Thursday night, and this looks like a good spot to back the Braves.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Matt Wisler will get the nod for the home team, and he's pitched very well so far. Wisler (2-3, 2.93 ERA) allowed one run on five hits over 6.2 innings in a win over the Phillies in his last start. The Brewers will counter with Wily Peralta, who is winless on the road in 2016.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Freddie Freeman is 0-for-10 in this series so far, but he might be able to break out of a slump against a struggling Wily Peralta. Freeman is 2-for-7 with a home run lifetime versus the right-hander.
3 . X-Factor - The Brewers are 6-15 in the last 21 meetings in Atlanta.
Vegas Butcher
Chicago White Sox +141
These pitches just faced off against one another in their latest starts so what have we learned? Miguel Gonzalez went 6 innings with a 8:0 K:BB rate and a SIERA of 2.2, his best outing of the year. By comparison, Duffy went 4.1 innings (by design as he’s been a reliever all of this season) with 3:0 K:BB rate and a SIERA of 4.4. He gave up a lot of fly-balls (54%) as well as line-drives (23%), and had an average 17% K-rate. I know the sample size of one game is pretty meaningless, but the point here is that Gonzalez was very successful against this mediocre KC lineup. White Sox didn’t do much either but when you compare each offense, I think Sox have an edge tonight. They rank 9th against the lefties, while the Royals are only 20th against right-handers. Throw in the fact that KC is dealing with a number of injuries to a few of their key guys (Moustakas / Gordon), and I really like the offensive edge the White Sox will have in this matchup. Too much value on them in this spot.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Connecticut
Pick: Los Angeles -10.5
Los Angeles is crushing opponents by a 91-71 average during its unbeaten start. The Sparks are tops in the WNBA in points scored, assists and points allowed. Candace Parker (20.5 points per game) scored 26 and grabbed nine rebounds while Nneka Ogwumike added 19 and nine as the Sparks rolled at Chicago Tuesday, 93-80. They face a Connecticut a squad that has a losing record and is winless at home, ranked tenth in points scored, seventh in points allowed and rebounds. Connecticut is the league's worst shooting team at 36.6 percent and second-worst on three-pointers at 26.3. Connecticut is also 3-6-1 ATS when playing on three or more days rest. L.A. has covered five of the last six meetings on this floor and will again.
GoodFella
Thunder +5 1st Half
Clearly, most of the world "expects/assumes" that these Warriors bounce back in this "desperation" game tonight on their home floor. They very well may win this game, but I just do not see it being an easy win for them. I really think this OKC club is just a very tough match up for them. I see this game as being played fairly tight and I am grabbing the +5 pts for the 1st half of the game. I do also lean very hard to OKC for the full game as well & may add it for my long term clients. Best of luck if you choose to play along with us here.