Brad Wilton
Thursday's comp play is the stay Under the total in the Thunder-Warriors contest in Oakland.
We are 4 games into this best-of-seven series, and thus far just one of the the 4 have found its way Over the posted price. Overall, 6 of the last 9 between the teams have also held Under the price.
Think we stick Under the number again tonight, as OKC has played 6 of their last 9 this post season Under the total.
Golden State has held Under the total in 5 of their 8 home playoff games to date, and I will side with the Under again here tonight in Oakland.
2* OKLAHOMA CITY-GOLDEN STATE UNDER
Scott Delaney
I'm taking the Houston Astros with my free play tonight, at home against the Baltimore Orioles. It's a cheap price, but I like my chances against a team that is struggling, having lost three in a row, including last night's lid-lifter in Houston, 4-3.
The Orioles have now lost six of 10, and are 9-10 on the road this season. I don't think there is any alarm, with a team that can hit the ball and has the depth to overcome, but this is a bad road trip, to extremely humid Houston.
The Astros would love to get something going, as they've now won two in a row and could climb out of the cellar when all said and done, after this series.
Take Houston tonight.
5* ASTROS
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 61-49 run with free picks: Colorado at BOSTON (-1', +120)
The STORYLINE in this game today - But seriously, how good are the Boston Red Sox offensively right now? We're talking absolutely dominating, especially at Fenway Park. And tonight my free play is on them at home against the Colorado Rockies, as the Crimson Hose go after their 14th win in 16 home games.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The offense is my key, of course it is. During its winning stretch at home, Boston is averaging more than 8 runs per game and is batting better than .350 while belting more than 20 home runs. Big Papi is on quite a farewell tour, as he's remained hot through this tear. He had two hits and four RBIs in yesterday's 8-3 series-opening victory against the Rockies, and in yesterday's 10-3 win, hit a 2-run double. Ortiz is hitting better than .360 with eight home runs and 27 RBIs over a 22-game stretch.
BOTTOM LINE is - Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team, as the Red Sox are going to shine at home and continue to win big.
5* BOSTON -1.5
Ray Monohan
Colorado / Boston Over 9.5
Fenway Park has been an absolute Over park this season. Once again the total reaches 9.5, but it still holds value here. We get two struggling pitchers in this one. Jon Gray goes for the Rockies, as he sits with a 6.75 ERA on the season. He allowed 9 runs last time out and has a 6 plus ERA on the road.
Boston goes with Clay Buchholz, who is right there in ERA with a 5.92. Buchholz sits with an ERA of 5.66 inside Fenway Park as he just hasn't had it this year. He's struggled with the free passes, allowing 24 this season. Offensively, the Red Sox have been red hot at home. They have averaged nearly 7 runs per game and put up another 10 run performance in a 10-3 win last night.
Some trends to consider. Over is 7-1 in Grays last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Over is 10-4-1 in Red Sox last 15 interleague home games.
Expect a lot of run scoring opportunities here. Both pitchers have struggled on the season and both offenses have a lot of weapons.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -133
The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off a huge home series with the hated rival Chicago Cubs in which they lost two out of three games. Now they have to travel clear to Washington, and this is clearly going to be a tough spot for them mentally Thursday.
The Nationals stay home after a 3-game set with the Mets last series. I really like the young Joe Ross, who is the most underrated starter on the Nationals' rotation. He has gone 3-4 with a 2.89 ERA in eight starts this season to really hold his own. Ross gave up one earned run in 6 innings of a 6-1 road victory over the Cardinals earlier this season.
Mike Leake hasn't exactly had a great first season in St. Louis. He has gone 3-3 with a 4.07 ERA in nine starts this year. Leake clearly doesn't enjoy facing the Nationals, going 3-4 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. He gave up five earned runs in 7 innings of a 4-5 loss to the Nationals earlier this season.
The Cardinals are 3-8 in their last 11 during game 1 of a series. St. Louis is 0-6 in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nationals are 5-2 in Ross' last seven home starts. Washington is 4-0 in its last four meetings with St. Louis.
Brandon Lee
Braves -122
Atlanta is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Brewers. I know the Braves are a miserable 2-19 at home this season, but they simply can't continue to be that bad at Turner Field. They have an excellent shot at winning at home tonight, as they should have a clear advantage on the mound with Matt Wisler going up against Wily Peralta. Wisler has a 2.98 ERA and 1.012 WHIP in 8 starts, while Peralta has a 6.99 ERA and 1.921 WHIP in 9 starts. As bad as the Braves' offense is, they should be able to get to Peralta in this one.
Scott Rickenbach
Orioles vs. Astros
Play: Under 8½
The first two games in this series have both stayed under the total and for Houston, they have now had 6 unders in their last 7 games. Based on this pitching match-up Thursday, I look for more of the same tonight. The Orioles Kevin Gausman has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in his 6 starts this season and has the added edge against Houston in that the Astros lineup has never faced him. Lance McCullers is making just his third start of the season for Houston but he was very impressive in shutting down the Rangers in his first home start of the new year. In his last two home starts, McCullers has held the opposition to just 2 earned runs in each start even though he went at least 6 innings in each start and notched a total of 14 strikeouts. Also, in his only career start against the Orioles, McCullers was dominant in a complete game where he allowed just 1 earned run on only 4 hits while walking none and striking out 11 in his 9 inning gem. Last season McCullers went 4-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in his 10 home starts for the Astros. The young right-hander held opponents to a paltry .188 batting average when pitching in Houston. The Astros bullpen has a 2.08 ERA at home and the Orioles pen has a 2.17 ERA on the road so far this season. This one shapes up to be a low-scoring tight battle all the way through.
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox +143
The White Sox are going through their worst stretch of the season in which they've lost 3 straight and 9 of their last 12. That has them undervalued right now, while also motivated to put an end to this skid. I like the price we are getting with Chicago tonight as +143 underdogs to the Royals. Miguel Gonzalez is rounding into form here of late, going 0-1 with a 3.30 ERA in his last three starts. He gave up 2 earned runs and 6 base runners over 6 innings against the Royals on May 21 in his last start. Danny Duffy hasn't had great success against the White Sox, sports a 3.44 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against them. He has given up 7 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in his last 2 home starts against Chicago. I simply believe the price is right to take a shot with the Sox today considering the pitching matchup is very evenly matched.
Jesse Schule
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5
The Warriors are down, but not out. After getting throttled in back-to-back games in Oklahoma City, they face elimination at home in Game 5 tonight. Steph Curry says: " this is not how we're going to go out." The Warriors are asked to cover a bunch of points here, and I just can't bring myself to bet on a team that has already displayed an inability to stop Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Head coach Steve Kerr insists that Curry isn't injured, but then goes on to say that "it's the playoffs, everyone is a little banged up". Curry was 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 4, and 3-for-11 in Game 3. He's only averaged 24 points per game in the series, well below his regular season average of 30.1 PPG. We've seen the Thunder win a Big Game 5 on the road at San Antonio in their last series, and they've already beaten the Warriors here at Oracle Arena. The Warriors look like a team that has run out of gas, and they look vulnerable here in this do or die game.
Power Sports
Baltimore vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
This is basically just a repeat of yday when I gave out a free play on the Astros. They came through for me w/ a 4-3 win, making it B2B one-run victories in this series and tonight they have a chance to sweep the struggling Orioles right out of town. I think they'll accomplish the feat.
A big part of my rationale yday centered around the Orioles being on the road. They've played a MLB-low 19 road games to this point and are just 9-10. They've scored three runs or less in four straight games, all on the road, and overall they've been held to three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games. That's gotta be "music to the ears" of Houston starter Lance McCullers, who pitched well his last time out and was a bit of a hard luck loser. Remember that McCullers posted a 1.95 ERA in 11 home starts last year.
Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman is still winless after six starts and while his ERA and WHIP might say that's unfair, I just don't see this being the time he gets into the win column. Over his last three starts, his ERA and WHIP are up to 4.08 and 1.585 respectively, so he's not in great form. Though he allowed only one run his last time out, he did so on eight hits in what was his second longest outing to date. When I look at the line movement for this game, like yday, it looks like the Astros are the sharp side.
Harry Bondi
ST. LOUIS +130 over Washington
Great value here on St. Louis starter Mike Leake, who had a rough start to the season, losing his first three starts, but has bounced back nicely, going 3-0 while allowing just two runs in 21 innings. The market is still pricing him as the 0-3 pitcher he was to start the season, so we'll gladly take the plus-money price here, especially since Nats starter Joe Ross is going the opposite way, losing his last three starts. And with St. Louis off a loss to the Cubs last night, we'll play one of the greatest baseball trends in recent memory, which is jumping on the Cardinals the game following a loss, a situation they have gone 99-62 (+26.4 units) the last three years, including 14-8 (+5.6 units) this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +151 over BOSTON
Boston’s red-hot offense is difficult to bet against but that’s what we do. We sell high on unsustainable numbers and that’s precisely what Boston is putting up right now. As a result of their incredible offensive stats, Boston’s stock is through the roof right now. That means guys like Clay Buchholz are priced in a range they should not be. Buchholz’s career is hanging by a thread. After cruising through the first half of 2015, it looked like Buchholz had gotten beyond his disappointing 2014 performance but then a July elbow injury shelved him for the rest of the year and he has not been the same since. With wild ERA swings, 207 days on the DL the past three years and awful skills, Buchholz is a huge risk spotting a price like this. He has a BB/K split of 24/35 in 52 innings. His 36%/20%/44% ground-ball/line-drive/fly-ball profile isn’t pretty and it’s getting worse. Buchholz has walked 15 batters over his past 30 innings. His WHIP, ERA, xERA and batted ball profile say he should be taking back a tag every game instead of spotting one.
After two months, Jonathan Gray is carrying perhaps the biggest xERA/ERA gap we've ever seen: 6.75 ERA, 2.80 xERA. Those skills point to better days ahead for Gray, but that positive regression may not begin today. Facing the Red Sox in Fenway right now is a bad draw for any skill set, as they are carrying a staggering .885 OPS at Fenway Park. However, that’s still not going to prevent us from backing Gray here. We understand that Boston is going off on everyone but that’s not the issue. We get the vastly superior starter taking back a significant tag and it’s a bet we would make 100% of the time. We also love that the Red Sox have an important three-game set with the Blue Jays on deck, followed by a four-game set with Baltimore. That’s a seven-game road trip beginning tomorrow so we may catch them at a perfect time here too. Oh, and by the way, the Rocks can hit.
ATLANTA -1½ +170 over Milwaukee
Matt Wisler came into the majors with a strong pedigree. He ranked among the top 100 prospects in both 2014 (#77) and 2015 (#54). His transition to the majors was a tough one, though, as he posted a 4.71 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) in 2015. He's lowered his ERA by more than a run and a half thus far in 2016 with all of his skills trending in the right direction. He's not getting as many strikeouts as he did in the minors but that’s improving too with a 12% swing and miss rate in his last two starts after posting a 8% rate in his first six starts. Wisler has thrown more first-pitch strikes in 2015, which has allowed him to cut down on the walks. Wisler was obliterated by left-handed batters last season, but they have had much less success against them so far in 2016. Wisler recorded a high number of strikeouts through much of his minor-league career. He averages 93.9 MPH on the gun and features a four-pitch arsenal, although he seldom uses a changeup. He has shutout the Dodgers, Mets and Phillies in three of his last six starts over 21 innings and brings a 0.99 WHIP into this game and a .206 oppBA. Wisler now catches the Brewers in the preferred venue, as they have a staggering 127-point OPS difference between home (.769) and the road (.642).
Before we discuss Brewers pitcher, Wily Peralta, there is something to be said about the Braves anemic offense. The Braves have scored the fewest runs in MLB. They have the lowest SLG% and the lowest OPS in the majors but a serious correction to those numbers are forthcoming. You see, the Braves are having good at bats. In fact, they have the 12th fewest strikeouts in the majors, ahead of Baltimore, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Washington, Detroit and the South Side among others. The Braves are putting the ball in play with great regularity but nothing is falling in. That doesn’t mean that they’re going to start knocking balls out of the park because the Braves still lack power. However, they don’t lack quality at bats and the ability to make contact. In that regard, the Braves have been very unlucky but they have a chance to do some real damage against Wily Peralta.
Peralta spent June and July of last year on the DL with a left oblique injury, and his skills said he wasn't the same guy upon his return. His fastball velocity dip prompted a strikeout rate/swing and miss slide, while shaky first-pitch strike culminated in his sharp 2H control fall-off. It was Peralta’s first major injury in a while but even those healthy 1H skills netted out a below-average rating. Peralta still throws hard at 93 MPH but he’s not throwing enough strikes. He has walked 20 batters while striking out just 31 in 46 frames this year. Over his last four starts, he has just 13 K’s against eight walks in 22 frames. Appears that Peralta is getting weaker and his 4.84 xERA suggests a turnaround isn’t going to happen anytime soon. We are in the buy-low/sell high business. Atlanta’s stock is very low, which puts them high on our radar because there are profits to be made playing them. We'll begin that here in a very winnable game.
WASHINGTON -1½ +159 over St. Louis
Mike Leake is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA over his last three starts. That puts his stock far above where it should be. Mike Leake is a serviceable pitcher that will eat up innings but he’s not close to being a 0.74 ERA pitcher, which means he’s hit a peak so a valley is inevitable. Leake’s calling card of control/groundball % remains strong, but he only has 33 K’s in 55 innings. With a strikeout rate so low and a swing and miss rate of 6% so low, Leake is at the mercy of hit%/strand% and hr/f fluctuations. His new home park offers some shelter on hr/f going forward, but he needs more than that to be better than average, especially on the road. Leake’s elite surface stats run of three games is in serious jeopardy. Incidentally, the Cardinals are coming off an emotionally charged series against the Cubbies so this is also a good spot to fade them in.
By contrast, Joe Ross is currently riding an ugly 5.21 ERA over his past three starts but those are surface stats that mean very little to us. Remember, Ross arrived quickly last year with fewer than 100 innings in the high minors. He didn’t seem overmatched even with some late-season fatigue. Ross held his swing-and-miss gains from 2014, as his sinker/slider repertoire continued to generate plenty of grounders. This year he has a very good BB/K split of 15/37 in 47 frames to go along with a 45% groundball rate. However, his groundball rate has progressively improved almost every game and was even up to 65% in his last start. On paper, it looks like Leake has an edge on Joe Ross but we’re not buying that and neither are the oddsmakers, as they have made Leake an enticing price here. That leaves us playing the Nationals on the run-line.
Ian Cameron
Colorado vs. Boston
Play:Colorado +150
It’s not easy to step in front of this Boston Red Sox freight train at the moment but this is all about price and value. The Colorado Rockies are looking to avoid a series sweep with their young arm Jonathan Gray who has impressed thus far. He has the potential to be the ace of the pitching staff and while he walks into a tough spot, he's exactly the type of pitcher I want to be betting on before the markets fully realize his ability. Despite Gray being hit hard by St. Louis in his last start, the rest of his best efforts have come on the road which makes sense as he continues to figure out Coors Field. His advanced numbers are ultra-impressive with a xFIP of 2.66 along with a rock solid 50% ground ball rate. And he comes in rested tonight having had six full days off. This is also a bet against Clay Buchholz, especially in this type of price range. He’s been very hittable with a 5.66 ERA at Fenway Park which is right in line with his FIP and xFIP. Buchholz has allowed 13 runs in his last 17 innings of work and should be a cure for this ailing Rockies lineup which has scuffled at the plate in recent games. Boston is 6-1 at home over its last seven games but the lone loss came with Buchholz on the mound against Cleveland. After facing an improving David Price and likely the only knuckleballer they'll see all season in Steven Wright, the tide should turn as the Rockies get to smack around a mediocre righty.
Jimmy Boyd
Cardinals at Nationals
Pick: Cardinals +130
The Cardinals are showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Nationals on Thursday. St Louis is going to come out extremely motivated after dropping the last two in their series against rival Chicago and are 21-8 in their last 29 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses. The pitching matchup on paper might appear to favor Washington. The Nationals will send out Joe Ross, who has a 2.89 ERA in 8 starts. St Louis counters with Mike Leake, who has a 4.07 ERA in 9 starts. The key here is these two are trending in different directions. Ross is 0-3 with 5.71 ERA and 1.672 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Leake is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in his last 3. We also find a strong system in play favoring a fade of Washington. Teams with a money line of +125 to -125 who are coming off a game where they scored and allowed 3 or less runs are just 12-40 (23%) against the money line over the last 5 years against an opponent off a game where 15 or more combined runs were scored.
Bruce Marshall
Braves -1.5 +170
Hard to go Run Line with the anemic Atlanta offense. But if we do so it might as be with Matt Wisler on the mound. The Braves' young righty is on an impressive stretch of four straight quality starts that has lowered his ERAS to 2.93. Meanwhile, lots more bad efforts than good ones for Brewers starter Wily Peralta, whose ERA (6.99), WHIP 1.92), and OBA (.363) all remain sky-high.
Cardinals +128
That's three straight good starts ina row for St. Louis' Mike Leake, notching wins in all of those games while allowing only 2 ER in 21 IP. He catches a Washnngton team that just lost two of three to the Mets and was collared by both Bartolo Colon and Steven Matz over the past three days. Nats starter Joe Ross has now allowed 13 runs over his past 17 1/3 IP.