Free Picks for Thursday, May 4th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
CELTICS VS. WIZARDS
PLAY:WIZARDS 1H -4.5
In a sense, I got it wrong as the Spurs defeated the Rockets on Wednesday evening. I played San Antonio in both the first quarter and the first half. My 1Q wager won with less than one second remaining. The IH play was a bit easier. But as it turned out, the most dominant quarter for the Spurs was the final one. Nevertheless, the two plays won.
I expect the same result tonight, as I’m expecting the Wizards to come out firing after losing two games at Boston. Actually, I like the idea of going first quarter and first half more here due to the serious lack of depth on this Wizards team. Their bench is simply not very good, and Washington has been much better early rather than late in each of the first two games.
Officially, my play here is Wizards 1H, but that’s mostly because that wager is widely available now, whereas the 1Q play isn’t for many bettors. However, I will be personally be going with both plays tonight, and looking for a repeat of the Wednesday result in the process.
Scott Rickenbach
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -1½
Max Scherzer gets the start against the team that drafted him over 10 years ago. He's made Arizona pay ever since! Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his five career starts against the Diamondbacks. The last 2 wins he has has over the Dbacks have come by a combined total of 7 runs and I expect another rout here as this is a pitching mismatch. Arizona will have Braden Shipley on the mound and he had a 4.18 ERA in the minors but was getting hit at a .331 clip! The only reason he's getting this start is because Shelby Miller is out for the Diamondbacks. The Nationals have been one of the top hitting teams in the league so far this season and I look for them to pound him in this one. Before yesterday's 1-run win the Nationals last 6 wins had all come by multiple run margins and, in fact, the average wining margin in those games was 7.3 runs per victory. I expect another blowout here as Scherzer improves to 5-0 lifetime versus the team that drafted him. Free Pick on Washington Nationals on the run line early Thursday afternoon.
Jim Feist
Senators vs. Rangers
Play: Senators +152
Ottawa is strong on defense, #10 in goals allowed with a winning road mark. Ottawa is on a 6-2 run, 9-4 against the Metropolitan division. The erratic Rangers were a dominant road team during the regular season but shaky at home. The Rangers are 3-7 following a win, 3-8 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game, plus 2-7 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. And the Senators are 27-12 in the last 39 meetings in New York.
Mike Menase
Rockies vs. Padres
Play: Under 8
This pick may seem unlikely considering both pitchers have had really poor performances against each other's respective team. However, these are young pitchers with upside and I like them to do well today.
Perdomo struggled against the Rockies last year. But he also struggled against most teams than he would now. His fip was 4.84 last year but it is only 3.17 this season. With an ERA currently at 4.96, he has a lot of upside coming into this matchup. His strikeout rate, walk rate and opposing home run rate have all improved, meaning that his stuff, command and control are getting better. I like how he matches up against the Rockies as Perdomo is absolutely a ground ball pitcher and the Rockies are at their worst against such pitchers, with just a .595 ops against them.
The Rockies counter with their young stud Kyle Freeland. He really struggled in his first outing against the Padres, particularly in the first inning, in which he was struggling to get the ball low enough in order to induce ground balls. Freeland has allowed just one run in his last thirteen innings, inducing ground balls at an average of about 68% in his last two affairs. So he seems to have figured things out and I like to ride potential and upside. I am impressed by his outing in Arizona, where his fip was 3.38, despite the fact that Arizona's ops against ground ball pitchers is .878 and their ops at home .869. San Diego's ops against ground ball pitchers is just .702. I like to ride with Freeland today, whom opposing batters have yet to figure out since he made his adjustments after his struggles with the Padres and then the Dodgers--even if those batters seem to match up well with him and whether it's afternoon or nighttime. I don't expect the Padres to figure Freeland out during the daytime, where their ops is .621 compared to .689 at night, a trend consistent with last year, as well.
This run total is inflated because it does not account for current form. Both Freeland and Perdomo come in with a lot of upside. Both teams have reliable relievers that they can implement in a close game. I think this will be a low-scoring affair.
Brad Diamond
Indians vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers +114
Won again last night with our red hot FREE selections as the Mets carried the day. Here the Tigers look to bounce back after a rough 3-2 loss to the Indians. Thursday RHP Salazar takes the hill for Cleveland, and the Indians are 7-1 in his L8 starts vs. >.500 units. However, Cleveland does show 0-5 with the hurler after allowing 2 or less runs in their prior contest. Young Fulmer hits the bump for the Tigers, granted the hurler was roughed up by the Indians last season surrendering a 1-2 record with a corresponding 6.98 ERA. This set has the hurler throwing with four day’s rest (Detroit 11-3) which should positively affect his velocity and location. Behind Fulmer the Tigers are a solid 21-8 in his last 29 starts, and 5-1 L6. In closing for Detroit, Kinsler will be a game-time decision.
Marc Lawrence
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -138
Edges - Cardinals: Wainwright 11-2 last 13 team starts n this series, including 5-0 the last five; and 15-3 last 18 team starts during May, including 5-0 the last five. With Wainwright in strong KW form with 17 K’s and 3 BB’s his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on St. Louis.
Dustin Hawkins
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Pittsburgh -115
Play against any home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (Reds)- with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games, playing on Thursday. (116-51 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%).Cincinnati is 14-33 against the money line in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Free Play on Pirates .
Rob Vinciletti
Senators vs. Rangers
Play: Under 5
These two have played under in 36 of 38 here at the garden and 7 of 8. The Senators are 4 of 5 under off a 3+ goal loss and 28 of 40 under when playing with revenge. The Rangers have stayed under the total in 26 of 37 in round 2 play and are 16-2-3 at home in the playoffs the last few years.
Larry Ness
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners
The Mariners opened the season 2-8 and while they aren't exactly 'on fire,' they are 10-8 their last 18 games. Nelson Cruz got off to a slow start in 2017 but that's pretty much a distant memory. He was 3-for-4 with an RBI in Wednesday's 8-7 victory and is 20-for-43 during a 12-game hitting streak that has raised his batting average 109 points to .327. He has five HRs and 17 RBI during his 12-game streak. Speaking of stars, LA's Mike Trout, who was named AL Player of the Month for April, hit a two-run homer on Wednesday to extend his hitting streak to a career-best 16 games.!
The teams square off in the rubber game of the series tonight, as Alex Meyer (0-0, 4.91 ERA) takes on Ariel Miranda (2-2, 3.81 ERA). Meyer is being recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake to make his second start of the season, as Tyler Skaggs is expected to be out for 10-to-12 weeks with an oblique injury. Angels manager Mike Scioscia indicated the fill-in appearance isn't a one-start deal and the club wants to take a long look at the 27-year-old, who stands 6-9.
Seattle's Miranda has allowed a total of one run in his two victories and given up four in each of his two defeats. Miranda went 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA and .190 batting average against in three starts against the Angels last season (Seattle was 2-1).
I'm not sure just what Scioscia expects to see in Meyer. He is 0-0 with a 6.16 ERA in 19 innings in the minors this season, although maybe it's his 24 strikeouts that has grabbed the manager's interest. However, also note that Meyer has posted a 6.54 ERA in 10 career major league appearances (seven starts), including losing to Seattle last season, when he gave up four runs on five hits in four innings. Meanwhile, Miranda has fared well at Safeco Field in his brief big-league career, going 5-1 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career appearances (eight starts),
Brandon Shively
Boston vs. Washington
Pick: Under
The first two games in this series saw some amazing offensive efficiencies for both teams. If they keep shooting it that well, the game will go over the total. However, it is very common in the NBA playoffs that once the line gets inflated by higher shooting percentages and the games get more important, the under starts to have value.
The Wizards have to have this game, and I think they will show up more prepared on defense here. Look for this to stay under the posted total by a few points. Take the under.
Wunderdog
Rangers @ Astros
Pick: Astros -154
Texas is 3-9 on the road and riding a four-game skid. Texas is #27 offensively in on-base percentage and plays the fourth game of a nine-game trek. The Rangers have been outscored 29-12 during this skid and are 3-10 against winning teams for the season. Houston has the best record in baseball and is sixth in runs scored, and third in on-base percentage. Astros starter Joe Musgrove has a 2.58 ERA in nine career home appearances (eight starts). Houston is also 15-4 against its American League West rivals and has beaten Texas four straight in this park and will make if five straight tonight.
Rocketman
Colorado @ San Diego
Play: San Diego -108
The Colorado Rockies travel to San Diego to take on the Padres on Thursday afternoon. Colorado is 17-11 SU overall this year while San Diego comes in with a 12-17 SU overall record on the season. Kyle Freeland is 0-1 with an 11.56 ERA in his one career start vs San Diego. Colorado is scoring only 3.9 runs per game on the road this season and 3.9 runs per game in day games this year. Colorado is allowing 6.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall. San Diego is scoring 5.6 runs per game their past 7 games overall. San Diego is 14-7 at home vs Colorado the past 3 seasons. Colorado is 298-412 last 710 games on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. San Diego is 25-17 last 3 years at home when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. San Diego is 3-0 this year after allowing 10 runs or more. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego today!
Chris Jordan
I'm ready to improve on this 89-65-3 run with free picks, including a 14-13 mark on the young MLB season with freebies after hitting the Minnesota Twins last night. Today my free play is on the Minnesota Twins again, minus the small price, against the Oakland Athletics.
The Twinkies will keep their momentum flowing, as they roll in on a four-game win streak, sparked by a successful road trip last week, going 4-1 away from Target Field.
This lineup is not to be dared right now, as it has stroked seven home runs the last two nights against Oakland's pitchers.
I'm not listing pitchers in this one, as Oakland's offense has struggled of late. The A's have failed to score more than two runs four times in the past six games.
That won't cut it against the Twins, who have won six of the last seven meetings with the A's, when playing in the Twin Cities.
3* TWINS
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for today is out of the American League West, as I'm playing the Houston Astros to destroy the Texas Rangers in a great spot - for a second-straight night.
The dejected Rangers have to be struggling after the Astros recorded their 12th comeback victory on Tuesday night, rallying for a third time from a five-run deficit to defeat Texas 8-7, and then trouncing the Rangers last night, 10-1.
I'm not sure how or why, but Houston has shown us its knack to string together quality at-bats throughout the lineup, especially under pressure during late-game situations, and the resiliency to come from behind.
Houston has won four in a row, while the Rangers have lost four straight. They've also lost seven of eight against intradivision foes. The Astros have won seven of eight at home, and should have no trouble in this one.
2* ASTROS -1.5