BRANDON LEE
Royals/White Sox Under 7.5
Each of the first 3 games in this series have gone UNDER the mark set by the books. I look for these two teams to make it 4 in a row this afternoon. Not going to be a good day to score runs via the long ball, as winds will be blowing straight in from left at more than 15 mph. On top of that we have two pitchers with decent overall numbers that are also in good form. Chicago's Derek Holland has a 3.41 ERA in 5 starts and has lasted at least 6 innings and given up 2 or less in each of his last 2 starts. Kansas City gives the ball to Ian Kennedy, who has a 2.30 ERA in 5 starts overall and a 1.86 ERA in 3 starts at home.
JACK JONES
Texas Rangers +143
The Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory this afternoon to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros. They have lost the first three games of this series, including an ugly 10-1 loss yesterday.
But the value we are getting here is too good to pass up. A.J. Griffin has been solid, going 2-0 with a 4.11 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in three starts, including 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.583 WHIP in two road starts. Griffin has never lost to the Astros, going 5-0 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in seven career starts against them.
Joe Musgrove is just holding down a rotation spot in the short-term for the Astros. He is 1-2 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.338 WHIP in five starts this season. Musgrove has also gone 1-1 with a 4.59 ERA in three career starts against Texas. He has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers over 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.
The Rangers are 19-7 in Griffin's last 26 starts. Texas is 5-0 in Griffin's last five starts vs. AL West opponents. Griffin is 7-0 against the money line in his seven career starts against the Astros.
DAVE PRICE
Colorado Rockies +101
The Colorado Rockies scored 11 runs in pitcher-friendly San Diego last night. Now their bats should stay hot against San Diego's Luis Perdomo, who is 0-0 with a 4.96 ERA in 3 starts this season, and 0-0 with a 6.97 ERA in 2 home starts. Perdomo is also 0-2 with an 8.18 ERA in 2 lifetime starts vs. Colorado, both of which came last season. Kyle Freeland has been one of the best starters for the Rockies, going 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 5 starts, and 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 2 road starts. The Padres are 9-27 after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago/KANSAS CITY Under 7½
We’re committed to playing one baseball total daily for the remainder of the year and if it works out, we’ll start posting more but with afternoon games today, we’ll play one during the day and one at night. We’re studying weather conditions and how it affects the flight of the baseball. The effect of humidity on air density is very slight and is actually opposite what it is commonly purported to be. The common reputation of humidity is that it is heavy; however, this is a misnomer. Humidity is actually light for a projectile to fly through because there is more hydrogen in humid air than in dry air, which contains a larger percentage of nitrogen. And, of course, nitrogen is heavier than hydrogen.
There is a scale that takes into account humidity, as well as temperature and elevation-related barometric pressure that gives us an Air Density Index reading at every ballpark or zip code and the reading today at Kaufmann Stadium is 73.41. That’s an extremely high reading. Aside from K.C’s weak offense, the field itself is symmetrical (330 in the corners, 387 in the alleys and 410 to dead center) with large foul areas so it’s a pitcher’s park to begin with. Yesterday’s reading at this park was 65.17 and the score was 0-0 going into the sixth inning before ending up 6-1. Day games are also generally lower scoring than night games and it’s also worth noting that one or two everyday players get a day off when a day game follows a night gameKeep in mind that Coors Field Air Density Index reading is generally in the low 50’s while almost all other parks are between 60 and 80. Also, keep in mind that low Air Density Index means high scoring and a high reading means low scoring. This is a low reading when compared to other readings at Great American Ballpark
Keep in mind that Coors Field Air Density Index reading is generally in the low 50’s while almost all other parks are between 60 and 80. Also, keep in mind that low Air Density Index means high scoring and a high reading means low scoring. This is a low reading when compared to other readings at Great American Ballpark
Please keep in mind that we’re still experimenting with these readings when applying them to baseball totals. We’re fine tuning it as we go along but we’ve put in the work and have a clear understanding of how this all works. For today, it appears as though the air is heavy throughout the Midwest and East Coast so over players beware.
N.Y. Mets +111 over ATLANTA
Zack Wheeler (RHP) is 1-2 after five starts with a 4.78 ERA after a two-year hiatus. That time away from the game combined with his weak looking ERA has the market looking elsewhere today but we’re focusing in on him because the skills say to. Wheeler’s strikeout rate is going up by the start and is now at 8.5 K’s/9. His control is getting better too and now sits at just 1.9 BB’s/9. Furthermore, his groundball rate of 57% is elite and getting better. Wheeler is attacking the strike zone with a high volume of strikes (33% ball%) with his fastball back up to 95 MPH. Zach Wheeler is getting stronger and more confident with each passing pitch. Remember, he had wicked stuff prior and if he stays healthy, he could have a big bounce-back season in 2017. However, the time to buy would be now before that bounce back starts to get noticed.
Jaime Garcia’s (LHP) surface starts are better than Wheeler’s. Most of this market eats up surface stats, especially ERA because most believe it is a true indicator of a pitcher’s ability. It’s not. ERA is another misleading stat that does not take into consideration balls in play, strikeouts, hard hit balls or any other of the various randomness that occurs during a game. Jaime Garcia has benefitted from nothing but pure luck so far. In 29 frames, Garcia has an ugly BB/K split of 13/17. His ERAxERA split is 3.99/6.09. Garcia’s skills have shown a steady decline year by year and you can now throw in the first month of 2017. Garcia carries both performance and durability risk into each start and with his 54% first-pitch strike rate, his control is becoming an issue too. Jaime Garcia favored over Zack Wheeler is due to their respective ERA’s that make Garcia look better. He’s not even close to being so. Invest.
Milwaukee +136 over ST. LOUIS
Adam Wainwright (RHP) made just four starts in 2015 because of an Achilles injury. Last year he returned to make 33 starts. He’s now 35 years old and recently missed a year so it begs the question, has he been successful since he returned? Yes and no. YES: Wainwright missed nary a turn last year and reached his pre-injury strikeout rate and first pitch strike rate too. The middle months were vintage Wainwright. NO: Fewest full-year innings pitched with spotty command throughout. Lefties battered him and as a result, Wainwright led the league in earned runs and hits allowed vL. This year, Wainwright has made five starts and he continues to labor. Although he has 26 K’s in 25 frames, his swing and miss rate of 9% with a 90 MPH fastball says strikeout regression is about to punch back. Wainwright has zero pure quality starts. He’s hittable and a big risk as the chalk, especially with this Cardinals weak offense behind him.
Chase Anderson (RHP) owns a nifty 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after five starts. While those marks have been helped by a friendly 92% strand rate and 4% hr/f, it is noteworthy that Anderson has shown extensive improvement in his command sub-indicators from 2016 to 2017: 8.2% to 11% swing and miss rate, 58% to 65% first-pitch strike rate, 39% to 35% ball%. There's some great value here on Anderson and the Crew and we’re not about to pass it up.
Miami +121 over TAMPA BAY
Matt Andriese (RHP) may be the better starter here but if so, it is slight. Andriese has put up average numbers across the board with a BB/K split of 10/22 in 28 frames, a 10% swing and miss rate, a 46%/33% groundball/fly-ball split and an xERA of 4.31. In his last start, Andriese went seven full against the Blue Jays and only allowed five hits and three runs but he also only struck out four batters so the randomness of balls in play served him well.
Dan Straily (RHP) found surprising success in the second half of last year when he made strides with his first-pitch strike rate and control. Straily owns a 4.15 ERA after 26 innings but he's someone who is pitching better than his ERA might indicate. His skills have been good. His command sub-indicators have been even better: 12.2% swing and miss rate, 64% first-pitch strike rate. Straily’s only issue is that lefties hit him well and if he can clean that up, he’s going to be a front-line starter. The Rays will likely have four left-handed bats in the lineup today in Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Kevin Kiermaier and Brad Miller. Thus, even if we give the Rays an edge on the hill, it means little because they have no advantages anywhere else.
The Marlins offense is much more dangerous. The Fish also have the superior bullpen and defense. After losing two to the Rays back in Miami on Monday and Tuesday, the Marlins returned the favor last night with a 10-6 victory. We now get them at a price in a better than 50/50 proposition and that’s a bet we’re always interested in making.
Indian Cowboy
Milwaukee (+135) over St. Louis
The Milwaukee Brewers, as we write this analysis, are 2nd in the National League Central and have won 5 of their last 7 ball games. This is a team that has built itself from the ground up and now finds itself breathing distance from 1st place atop the division. They have done this through the fact they are ranked 3rd in the league in offense, 2nd in OPS and 1st in Homeruns. One of the pitchers that has not had as much success is Jimmy Nelson, who is 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA. He pitched against the Cardinals on April 23rd and lost to them 4-6 as a +104 underdog. We like Nelson to get some revenge here as he did pitch better against the Cardinals in his last effort, giving up 5 hits in 5 innings but had 6 walks, which is what cost him the game. However, we like him to have much more control this time around against the Cardinals. Plus, Nelson comes off one of his worst outings of the year as he was hit hard by the Braves for 11 hits, in 5 innings and 5 runs. The Brewers lost that game 3-11 at home. Nelson has revenge against the Cardinals, it is a division game and needs a bounce-back and we like him to get it here on likely an underdog price.
Allen Eastman
Colorado (+110) over San Diego
I like the Rockies to win the third game of this series in San Diego. The Rockies are off to a strong start and are in first place in the West right now. They have gone 9-4 on the road to start the season and are winning outside of Coors Field. Colorado has gone 5-1 in its last six against teams below .500 and they have won five of six divisional games. The Rockies have struggled in San Diego in the past. But I think that they will win this series easily. Colorado is going with lefty Kyle Freeland and he has won four of his five starts. His only poor start this year came against the Padres on April 12. But I think he will be much better against them the second time around. The Rockies will get the job done here
Chip Chirimbes
Jazz at Warriors
Play: Jazz +13
I've heard two different 'takes' off the Warriors Game 1 106-94 non-cover win. To tell the truth Golden State looked like they were in command through-out and were just toying with the Jazz and if not for poor 3-point shooting (7-of-29) and should have 'covered' easily. On the other side I hear 'hey, Gordon Hayward was just 4-of-15 scoring only 12 points and will come-back with a good game. I agree but that doesn't necessarily constitute a win. Not that it matters much but Steve Curry suffered a left ankle injury in game one and missed practice yesterday. They say he is 'all right' but with the Jazz 6-0 ATS in their last six road games
Harry Bondi
ST LOUIS -150 over Milwaukee
Tonight we go back to baseball and lay a little more than we usually like on St Louis. The -150 price is certainly justified here as Adam Wainwright is 11-2 in his last 13 starts against Milwaukee. He is also one of the month of May’s best pitchers going 15-3 in his last 18 May starts.
Teddy Covers
Utah at Golden State
Play: Utah +13.5
The Golden State Warriors won every stat comparison they could win in their Game 1 victory over Utah. The Warriors won fast break points 29-6. They won points off turnovers by a 20-4 margin. Golden State shot 49% from the floor and outscored the Jazz by ten at the free throw line, hitting 91% of their foul shots too! Golden State had 32 assists on 40 made field goals. They completely shut down Utah’s Gordon Hayward, held to just 4-of-15 shooting with only four assists and four rebounds.
And yet, when the dust cleared, it was Utah, not Golden State, who cashed winning bets for their backers thanks to a late 8-2 run in the closing minutes with all the starters for both teams sitting on the bench. That’s the danger of laying double digits in an NBA Playoff game, even with an elite team like the Warriors, very similar to their Game 1 showing against the Blazers.
Jazz head coach Quin Snyder wrote one word on the chalkboard in the locker room prior to their Game 7 win at LA against the Clippers: ‘Compete’. And that’s exactly what the Jazz have done throughout this postseason, with all four of their SU losses in the playoffs coming by a dozen points or less – Utah isn’t letting games get away from them right now. They fought to the final buzzer in Game 1, notching the spread cover to show for it. I’m expecting similar energy and effort tonight.
Plus, the Jazz have multiple areas where they’re primed to improve for Game 2, most notably their transition defense. This is NOT a team that gives up fast break buckets in bunches – game 1 was an aberration in that regard. And there’s ample reason to think that Utah will get a better shooting effort out of their front line talent tonight, with Hayward, George Hill, Derrick Favors and several others primed for a bounceback effort. Look for the Jazz to ‘compete’ and hang around in this inflated pointspread range.
Jack Brayman
My free play for Thursday night is the on the total of the same game I'm giving you, as I like the Under in the Boston Celtics-Washington Wizards game.
This is real simple: for the Boston Celtics to go into an arena they lost twice this season, against a talented backcourt like the Washington Wizards have, it's going to take defense. And for the Wizards to cut Boston's series lead in half, they need to silence Boston's offensive weapons and play a defensive game.
Both team will be looking to stall the other, and slow the tempo.
If you want to know which team I think will be more successful at doing so, login for my 30 Dime Winner. As for the total, I like it to stay low.
2* Wizards-Celtics Under
Jeff Benton
The Jazz made good use of the generous +13 1/2 points they were getting to hold inside of the number, but I don't think that will be the case tonight, as Golden State looks to keep their playoff mark unblemished at 6-0 straight up. The Dubs have covered 3 of 5 this postseason, and they are now 6-2 against the spread the last 8 times they have hosted the Jazz.
It just does not look to me that Utah has any real way to slow down Golden State, and the Jazz simply do not score enough points for me to get enticed by grabbing the impost. Yes, I know Utah did sneak in with the cover on Tuesday, but that was lucky to say the least.
Steve Kerr may be dealing with severe back pain, but Mike Brown knows just what to do as the acting head coach...and that is NOT A LOT! Just turn the Warriors loose!
Golden State with another double-digit win, this time good enough to cover the spread.
4* GOLDEN STATE
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Marlins vs. Rays
Play: Rays -125
Both of these pitchers have thrown well early this season but the Marlins Daniel Straily has been "hit or miss" on the road. He had a great start in his most recent start away from home but previously he got hammered in his first road start this season. As for the Rays Matt Andriese, he has been consistently solid this season and he has been rock solid recently with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in his last 3 starts. After getting clobbered in a 10-6 loss yesterday, look for Tampa Bay to respond today and improve to 9-6 this season when off of a loss and to 10-5 in home games! The Rays are still 2-1 this season (and 26-17 the past 3 seasons combined) in inter-league games. The Marlins, even with yesterday's win, are an ugly 2-4 in inter-league games this season and an even worse 15-31 in inter-league games the past 3 seasons combined. The Rays are just under .500 on the season but Miami is a poor 5-9 this season in their games against teams with a losing record. The Marlins, prior to yesterday's win, had been held to 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Rays, conversely, are averaging 5.2 runs per game in home games this season.
MATT FARGO
Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Brewers +138
St. Louis won Game Two of this four-game set Tuesday behind a solid performance from Carlos Martinez who finally picked up his first win of the season. It has been an up and down year for the Cardinals who have had issues with both the offense and the starting pitching and despite a .500 record, they are heavy favorites once again. The Brewers are also at .500 and the potent offense was finally held in check as it was just the fifth time in 28 games they were held to two runs or less. The defeat was just the fourth one on the road for Milwaukee and it is in good position to get it back tonight following the postponement last night. Adam Wainwright is a big reason why this line is so big and while we played against him and lost in his last start, he was not particularly well and that has been the case the entire start of the season. Overall, he has a 6.12 ERA and 1.84 WHIP and has yet to toss a quality outing in five starts. The Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 road games against right-handed starters. Chase Anderson gets the ball for Milwaukee and after three pretty average seasons, it looks as though he has turned the corner. Through five starts, he has a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and his biggest turnaround has not been allowing home runs. He has allowed just one home run this season after surrendering 28 long balls last year.
DENNIS MACKLIN
Orioles vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -120
Really starting to love this series as these two definitely don't like each other with 1-2 "incidents" happening seemingly every game. Big fade on Ubaldo Jiminez here who should probably be out of baseball and who rocks a 7.44 ERA this year and and owns a 2-7 6.84 career badge vs. Red Sox in 16 LT starts.
BLACK WIDOW
Orioles/Red Sox Under 10
Bets on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 10 or higher (Baltimore) in a game involving two good teams who have won between 54% and 62% of their games, in May games are 114-52 (68.7%) since 1997. Give me the UNDER in this game Thursday.