DAVE COKIN
YANKEES VS. ORIOLES
PLAY: YANKEES +100
It was a case of better safe than sorry for me on Wednesday, but as it turned out I was sorry I didn’t play the Yankees as they busted a slump with a 7-0 whitewash against the Orioles. The Yanks were a take off my numbers. But I didn’t have a great deal of faith in CC Sabathia and I really didn’t like the idea of backing a team that was on a six-game losing streak.
I’m feeling more confident about giving the Yakees a shot tonight. Masahiro Tanaka apparently isn’t being hindered by his supposed balky elbow and he’s entering tonight’s fray in very solid form. I like Kevin Gausman as well, but my charts favor Tanaka.
I’m also of the opinion the JJ Hardy injury that is forcing a reconfiguration of the Baltimore infield to be a bit of a problem. Moreover, the Orioles bullpen is a bit mixed up presently with Zach Britton temporarily shelved with an ankle injury. Britton could be available tonight as the injury turned out to be minor, and he evidently came out of a bullpen session feeling fine. Nevertheless, there’s nothing definite on his Thursday night status as I’m writing this, and if Britton has to sit out another day, that compromises the back end of the Baltimore pen a bit.
This really comes down to one of my preferred type of plays. It’s by no means a landslide, but when I make Team A the favorite off my data and they end up showing at any plus money, that’s a play I usually like to make. In this instance, I arrived at Yankees -109 as my price and I’m able to get them at even money. That’s not a heckuva lot of value but in that I also like the way Tanaka is throwing plus having the Yankees finally playing off a win, there’s enough here for me to get involved. I’ll side with the Yankees this evening to win the series rubber match.
Sleepyj
Brewers / Reds Over 9
My numbers has this at 10.5...Rather high for a NL game not in Coors Field...Still this game has a decent shot of getting over the total...Both teams bats have been good enough to get runs off these two guys on the hill today...Alfredo Simon has been like a pitching machine in batting practice....Right down the middle and right out of the park....He has allowed a ton of runs and his ERA sits at 13.50...He hasn't fooled anyone except the guy signing his pay check....He has given up 5 HR's in the last 7.2 innings...That hasn't helped since he has loaded the bases with 18 hits and 4 walks over that 7.2 innings....Another factor for the Reds is the bullpen...It looks to be a long year for the Reds pen as they are one of the worst in MLB...Now the Brewers lineup isn't scary, but it doesn't have to be facing this pitching combo the Reds has on tap...On the flip side the Brewers will send out Chase Anderson...He's been a disaster as well...ERA sits at 5.55, but he has been knocked around in his last 3 games...4,5,6 ER and 28 hits over just 13 innings of work...Walks are up in his last 2 games at 4 a piece....Reds lineup is hitting rather well from the top to bottom...Strong bats with Suarez and Duvall has made the Reds back end tough as well...If Bruce, Votto and Phillips get it going also, Anderson could be taking a hot shower rather early...Brewers bullpen is borderline bad as well...This might hit 9 runs early and get over in the middle of this one..Insurance runs as well coming late..Only way I can look is over and taking the under is just a pure wise guy play...If Simon throws a gem, I'd get him tested...Over we go!!
Rob Vinciletti
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Play: Marlins -136
The Marlins are 4-0 vs leftys and averaging over 6 runs in these games. They are 3-0 on Thursday and fit a solid database system that has won 28 of 38 times and pertains to last nights 1 run home favored win win with both teams scoring 4 or less runs. Arizona has lost 6 of 9 vs leftys and 9 of 11 with a total that is 8 to 8.5. They have R. Ray pitching tonight and he has a 6.23 era in his last 3 starts and a 7.71 Era vs Miami. The Marlins Counter with Conley who comes off a stellar 7+ inning shutOut over Milwaukee. Look for the Marlins to take the finale.
Marc Lawrence
Colorado at San Francisco
Play: Colorado +125
Edges - Rockies: 6-3 last nine games in this park. Giants: Matt Cain 7-18 last 25 overall home team starts; and 2-4 last six team starts in this series, including 0-2 at home. With Cain in wobbly current form with one win in his five team starts, along with a 7.00 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP this season, we recommend a 1* play on the Colorado Rockies.
Jim Feist
Rockies vs. Giants
Play: Over 8
Colorado has plenty of offensive punch, No. 5 in baseball in runs scored. Chris Rusin has had his innings limited, starting the year in the bullpen and the Over is 5-2-1 in Rusin's last 8 starts with 4 days of rest. The Over is also 6-2-1 when the Rockies face a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and they run into hittable Matt Cain, at 0-3 with a 7.00 ERA. The 31-year-old Cain surrendered seven hits, six earned runs, and a walk over six innings in Saturday's 6-5 loss to the Mets. He's now surrendered 10 earned runs over his last 11.2 innings. At least the San Francisco offense can score, No. 3 in baseball in runs scored, on a 10-2 run over the total. The Over is also 35-15-2 when Cain starts starts with four days of rest. When these teams clash the over is 10-4, including 8-3 over when Cain faces the Rockies. P
Power Sports
Texas vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The Blue Jays were a premium release for me last night (and they won, part of a 3-0 SWEEP!) and I'll gladly endorse them yet again as they look to win a third straight game at the Rangers' expense. Now, I concede to you that the Jays have hardly been dominant here as it has been back to back walk-off wins for the home team in this series. But that speaks to just how bad Texas' bullpen has been so far (3-9, 4.98 ERA). It's also only a matter of time before Toronto's offense breaks out.
The Blue Jays, who essentially "lapped" the rest of baseball in terms of offense last season, actually came into last night's game w/ a team batting average below .200 its previous seven games. They didn't have a ton of hits again last night (7), which makes it eight straight games with fewer than 10. But this everyday lineup is simply too good for these struggles to continue. Plus, tonight they face Derek Holland, who has a 5.44 ERA in seven career starts against them. Behind him is that struggling Texas bullpen, which has already blown four save opportunities.
Starting tonight for Toronto will be J.A. Happ, who is unbeaten (3-0) in five starts. Better yet, all five of those starts have been quality, even the last one where the team ultimately came up short on the scoreboard. The long-ball has hurt Happ a bit in his last two outings, but thankfully the Rangers are just 25th in baseball in home runs hit. Happ has a 1.83 lifetime ERA against them and also is 11-3 w/ a 3.20 ERA his L21 starts overall. The Blue Jays are the recommendation here.
Big Al
San Jose vs. Nashville
Pick: Under
The Sharks' recent frustration in Music City continued on Tuesday night. San Jose came into game three of this second round series having gone 1-6 in its last seven trips to Nashville, and after getting on the board first and holding a 1-0 lead after the first period, it looked as if the Sharks might be on their way to a 3-0 series lead. But the Preds quickly dashed those dreams, as they put up two unanswered goals in both the second and third periods and rolled to a relatively easy 4-1 victory. For the second straight game the Sharks managed just 25 shots on goal against a stingy Preds defense and although they were able to overcome that at home in game two, Tuesday night was a different story. After faltering badly and being replaced by Carter Sutton in game one, Preds goalie Pekka Rinne has rebounded well and he had the support of the home crowd in game three as he stopped several huge chances by the Sharks to keep his team's lead secure.
SPS Investors
Philadelphia vs. St. Louis
Pick: Philadelphia
Not many would have projected the Philadelphia Phillies to be sitting with a winning record in the first week of May. This is a young team that was supposed to be in a rebuilding period, but have impressed thus far. They may have some holes in their game with inexperienced players at some of the skill positions; however they have shown that they have the talent to compete with some of the elite of the league.
The Phillies pitching has been a big reason for much of their success this season. They have an ERA of 3.79 and have won 14 straight games when allowing three or less runs. They have allowed 15 runs in their last three games but three or less in eight of their last 12 games. This afternoon they will send another promising arm to the mound this afternoon in Jerad Eickhoff. Eickoff had his third quality start in five outings on Saturday, allowing three runs and six hits over six innings. He struck out four and walked none. While he is still learning to pitch at a big league level he has shown promise on the mound and will likely only get better with experience. An advantage he should have on the mound in this contest is the fact that none of the St Louis players have seen him before. With no experience with the timing and delivery of his pitches, it will likely take the players a couple of at bats to gain familiarity. If Eickoff can avoid mistakes and keep this a low scoring game, it will give his team a chance to pull off the victory.
The Cardinals will counter with lefty Jaime Garcia this afternoon. Since a complete-game one-hit shutout where Garcia struck out a career-high 13 vs. Milwaukee on April 14, he has struggled. The Cards have lost his next three starts and he has allowed 10 runs and 16 hits over 16.1 innings. He has also had an issue with his control having walked 10 batters during this same span. While the Phillies batting order does not have a ton of experience against Garcia, they have done well against southpaws this season winning 4 of their 5 outings.
With this being a day-game, we wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinals gave some of their 'regulars' the day off in this series finale as they have done frequently in the past. If that is indeed the case then we will likely see the odds on this game drop as soon as the lineups are announced. The Cardinals are no doubt the 'bigger named' team in this contest but it actually the Phillies who have been playing better baseball at the moment. St Louis has lost five of their last seven games and have scored one or less runs in three of their last five games. This game is much more even then the odds indicate which puts the value on the Phillies. At this price, the risk is certainly worth the reward.
Brandon Shively
Arizona vs. Miami
Pick: Over
Adam Conley for the Marlins is coming off a career high 116 pitches last start as he threw a no hitter for 7.2 innings. He still walked four batters and also walked four batter the previous start. Conley’s previous high pitch count was 106 last year and his following start he gave up 6 hits and 4 walks) vs. a very poor Philly team at the time. Arizona’s offensive potential is much higher than what Philly had last year. My point is Conley coming off a high pitch count will have a tired arm and will give up some hits and his usual walks. For Arizona, Robby Ray has been walking batters at a high rate this season and has a 17.4% (HR/FB) percentage. He hasn’t made it out of the 4th inning his last two starts and the Arizona bullpen continues to get waxed and taxed.
Tonight’s umpire is Ed Hickox and the OVER is 3-0 in his three games behind home plate this season with an average of 14.3 runs scored a game, which is the highest of all umpires currently. His most recent game, Hickox called 12 walks in the game, indicating a small strike zone.
This total should be at least 9 and with it being 8 currently, this is an easy selection for me with a slight 10-12 MPH wind blowing out towards right-center field.
Bruce Marshall
Miami at Toronto
Pick: Under
Miami was in control of Tuesday's Game One a bit more than developments in the final minute suggested, when the Raptors would eventually force OT on Kyle Lowry's midcourt rainbow heave at the buzzer. Toronto was then unable to do much of anything in OT, and the dynamics look troubling for the Raps, as DeMar DeRozan is shooting too often and Lowry still apepars to be at something less than 100% after his late-season elbow injury. Never mind the eventual 102-96 scoreline in Game One, it was a dead "under" until Lowry's miracle shot forced the OT, and both teams had been trending "under" in their previous first-round games.
Strike Point Sports
Boston / Chicago Under 8.5
We have seen all we need to from the Sox - Red and White - this year when it comes to hitting left-handed pitching. Boston is hitting just .204 as a team against southpaws (No. 29) while Chicago is at just .244 (No. 17). That should mean that Henry Owens and Carlos Rodon will set the pace in this game. Both teams have weekend series against division rivals, with Boston set to go to the Bronx to face the Yankees, so I think that both teams will be looking past this game (especially the Red Sox). The 'under' is 8-0 in Boston's last eight games against a left-handed starter and the 'under' is 22-8 in Chicago's last 30 games on grass. I think this total will be set a shade too high, and I like this one to stay 'under' here.
Vernon Croy
Detroit at Cleveland
Play: Detroit
I really like this rookie on the mound for Detroit who can reach 98 MPH with his fastball. This will be the first time the Indians have faced Fulmer in just his second start in the majors. I had Fulmer in his first start as I know this pitcher very well and he will get a lot of strikeouts against this Indians ball club. The Tigers are very familiar with Bauer and they have hit .327 as a team lifetime against him, which is never a good thing if you are a Indians fan. Bauer has also struggled this season with an ERA of 5.28 and a WHIP of 1.63 over 1 start and 7 games pitched out of the bullpen. Opponents have hit .290 against Bauer this season, and I look for the Tigers to give Fulmer plenty of run support tonight, although he likely won't need much.
Larry Ness
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
Alex Rodriguez went on the DL Wednesday with a strained right hamstring suffered while running out a grounder in Tuesday's 4-1 loss to the Orioles. However, the Yankees scored three runs in the sixth and four in the eighth in a 7-0 rout of Baltimore last night, snapping a six-game slide. The good news on Thursday for New York is that the Yankees don't figure to need too much offense with Masahiro Tanaka (1-0, 2.87 ERA) on the mound. The right-hander has been consistently good through his five starts, giving up two ERs in each and pitching at least into the seventh in the past three. Tanaka’s pitching is in stark contrast to the rest of the New York rotation, which owns a 5.45 ERA even after C.C. Sabathia's seven scoreless innings last night. That said, he only has ONE win and the team is a modest 3-2 in his starts, despite his strong pitching.
Kevin Gausman (0-1, 2.45) makes just his third start of 2016 in the rubber match of this three-game set. A meltdown by Baltimore's bullpen wiped out Gausman's chance for a victory after he gave up three runs (two earned) in six innings against the Chicago White Sox this past Saturday. He allowed just one run and three hits over five innings in his season debut vs Tampa Bay on April 25, as a case of tendinitis in his right shoulder delayed his first start of the season. Gausman is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA in 11 career appearances (five starts / teams are 3-2) vs the Yankees.
Tanaka, as noted, is off to a strong start but New York has scored a total of 15 runs in his five starts. Gausman’s shoulder seems fine and note that in his two starts this year (11 innings), opponents are hitting only .175 against him. Expect Tanaka to once again suffer from a lack of support. Orioles take the series.
Jeff Benton
Your Thursday freebie is the Stars and Blues Over the total.
Lindy Ruff has a little bit of a problem, does he go with Kari Lehtonen or does he go with Antti Niemi? Or does he just reach for a bottle of Finlandia Vodka, and flip a coin?
Either way, the Blues have found a way to put the biscuit in the basket in this series of late, as they have lit the lamp 10 times in the last 2 games, and both Games 2 & 3 have landed Over the total.
The Blues are now 5-1-1 Over the total this postseason in their last 7 games, while the Stars are also 5-1-1 Over the total in their last 7 of the playoffs.
Hard to argue those "offensive" numbers.
Gotta go Over in Game 4 from the Scottrade Center.
4* DALLAS-ST. LOUIS OVER
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Miami Marlins tonight, over the Arizona Diamondbacks.
This has been a long travel for the Snakes, and while I know Arizona is 7-5 on the road, it started this road trip 7-3, has lost two straight and has also lost nine of its last 12 after losing here the past two nights. The D-Backs sit in fourth place, three back in a tight N.L. West race, which is currently led by the Giants.
Miami has won eight of 12, and will be looking to improve in South Beach. The Fish are just 4-7 at home, while they're 10-5 on the road. They rebounded nicely from a 14-5 loss at Milwaukee on Sunday, with Tuesday's night's winner. Then looked solid in carrying the momentum over to last night to seal the win.
Arizona is going to continue to struggle in Miami's humidity, as the Marlins roll.
Cheap price, lay it. Take the home team here.
1`* MARLINS