Brad Wilton
The Yankees finally stopped the bleeding at 6 games with the win last night in shutout fashion, and they also stopped the series slide at 6 in a row against the Orioles.
Masahiro Tanaka has easily been the best pitcher the Yankees have had over the first month, as Tanaka's ERA is 2.87, and his is 1-0 in his 5 starts, New York winning 3 of the 5.
He starts at Camden Yards for the first time, and has gone 1-1 in his 4 starts against the Birds in the Bronx with an ERA just over 3.
Kevin Gausman will oppose, and is looking for his first win of the season.
Gausman has made just 3 starts, and is 0-1 with an ERA of 2.45.
I don't expect too many runs, but I do expect Tanaka to get the better of it against Gausman.
Take the Yanks.
3* N.Y. YANKEES
Nelly
Philadelphia Phillies + over St. Louis Cardinals
While Philadelphia doesn't look like a team prepared to stay in contention all season the surprising start for the Phillies has featured very promising results from the young pitching staff. Jerad Eickhoff has been central in that success with strong results through five starts despite picking up just one win. Getting good starting pitching has a trickle-down effect on the rest of the team, helping the bullpen and defense and Eickhoff has the potential to pitch even better. He has 32 strikeouts in just over 30 innings of work and his only bad start came in Milwaukee, one of the better hitting ballparks in the league. In eight starts last season Eickhoff had a 2.65 ERA with a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and he will catch solid underdog status on Thursday despite clearly being one of the most promising young pitchers in the NL. Jaime Garcia is certainly a formidable pitcher as well but the Phillies are 4-1 vs. left-handed starters this season and Garcia has allowed four or more runs in three of his five starts this season with St. Louis losing each of his last three outings. The scoring numbers look impressive for the Cardinals but this has been an all-or-nothing lineup, scoring 7 or more runs 13 times but held to one or zero runs nine times. Incredibly heading into Wednesday night St. Louis has not scored 2 or 3 runs in any of its first 27 games this season. In 15 of the team's 27 games the Cardinals have allowed four or more runs as the pitching staff has not lived up to St. Louis standards while in contrast Philadelphia has allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of 27 games this season. Last season's record and the early run differential paints the Cardinals as the vastly superior team but the standings say otherwise as a gritty Philadelphia team is doing a lot of the little things right to stay in games and on the mound the edge may be with the gifted young starter for the Phillies despite the lofty underdog status of the team in Thursday's early start game.
John Fisher
Tigers vs. Indians
Play: Tigers +115
I nailed SP Fulmers first start as I knew he has big league stuff. He did well versus the Twins but will,have his hands full versus the better Indians. SP Bauer has always had control issues and keeps getting his pitch counts up before the 5th inning. Lucky for him the relievers had a day off last night as SP Kluber went the distance. I will go with Tigers because they have seen SP Bauer many times hitting .320 as a team off of him. While SP Fulmer will be seen for the first time against the Indians. Just. A 3 star because there is a negative trend for Rookie pitchers in their second game.
Wunderdog
San Jose @ Nashville
Pick: Nashville -108
The home team is 3-0 in this series with long flights for the visitors. Nashville has excellent balance across the board, #12 in goals scored, #10 on the power play and #14 in goals allowed. The Predators won the last game, 4-1, as James Neal and Filip Forsberg each scored on the power play and goalie Pekka Rinne made 26 saves. Nashville went two-for-five on the power play while killing off all four San Jose chances. Predators coach Peter Laviolette switched up his lineup saying he wanted more speed. Pontus Aberg made his NHL debut in place of Mike Ribeiro. Laviolette also put Craig Smith, Forsberg and Ryan Johansen together on the top line and moved Neal with Mike Fisher and Colin Wilson. Nashville is 25-13-5 at home and the home team has outscored the opponents 12-5 in these three games. That's nothing new as the home team is 39-18 in the last 57 meetings, with the Sharks losing seven of the last eight in this building.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. LOUIS -½ +117 over Dallas
Regulation only. Goaltending, goaltending, goaltending. Man for man, the Stars can play with St. Louis if all things were equal but they are not. When a teams’ goaltending situation is dire, it resonates throughout the entire lineup. The defense is reluctant to take chances and becomes less aggressive. The offense gets the wind sucked out of them because they work like dogs to try and score and when they do, their goaltender gives it right back. Lindy Ruff is now in a precarious position in that no matter who he turns to tonight in goal, it’s very likely going to be the wrong choice. After Kari Lehtonen was yanked in Game 2 after allowing three goals on the first five shots, Antti Niemi started Game 3. Niemi lasted 12 shots and 22 minutes before being yanked after allowing three goals. Instead of coming right back with Lehtonen in Game 3 after a poor outing, Ruff has now put himself and both goaltenders in a bad spot. Both Niemi and Lehtonen are likely secretly praying that Ruff doesn’t pick them. It’a bad situation no matter how you break it down and it seems near impossible that either goaltender will thrive tonight.
Meanwhile, the Blues will take the ice tonight with great goaltending and expectations of winning again. St. Louis dominated last game and they can put their foot on the throats of the Stars with a win here. They Blues were in the same position against the Blackhawks in Game 4 of their opening round and responded with a 4-3 win to go up 3-1 in that series as well. St. Louis has that killer instinct working. They forced Dallas to take seven penalties last game and they scored twice. They also scored twice on the PP in game 2 in Dallas so now the Stars are on “avoid penalties” alert because of it. That, too, will make them less aggressive. Before this series started, we gave the Stars a legit shot of defeating St. Louis but we have the right and good sense to change our position based on what we’re witnessing. Dallas is a psychological mess right now that is paying their dues while St. Louis is collecting on the dues that they paid over the past several years. Nothing changes here.
San Jose -½ +165 over NASHVILLE
Regulation only. We could certainly play this one at a very reasonable price with OT included but if we figured it was going to OT, we wouldn’t bet it anyway so why not take back the much bigger price? The Predators came through with a 4-1 win in Game 3 and we give them credit for it but it still doesn’t change the goaltending mismatch in San Jose’s favor. Again, goaltending is the number one factor that decides games and in that regard, it’s only a matter of time before Pekka Rinne’s luck runs out. He continues to fight pucks and he continues to be shaky and it’s going to catch up to him.
Martin Jones had an off game last time out and the Sharkies weren’t that sharp in the first two periods either. However, San Jose was coming off seven outstanding and intense efforts in a row (five against Los Angeles and two against Nashville) so letting up was somewhat understandable. A loss may have been the best thing to happen to the Sharks moving forward, as it’s a stark reminder that you can never let up in the playoffs. San Jose is a relentless, well-balanced team that had the NHL’s best road record during the regular season. We saw them win all three games in Los Angeles in the first round and this is not a step up in class. The Sharks will be much better tonight and when combined with the goaltending mismatch equation it equals to another San Jose victory.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia (5 innings) +145
While injuries have disrupted what was once a promising career path for Jaime Garcia, he was able to throw 130 innings in 2015, his highest since 2011, while putting up career bests in ERA and WHIP. However, another sub-3.00 ERA is pretty unlikely and we’re seeing plenty of signs of trouble ahead. Garcia benefited from a trifecta of good fortune (hit%, strand%, hr/f) in 2015. Garcia is throwing a lot of pitches to get guys out. That’s the first sign of trouble. The Cardinals are being very cautious with him as well in terms of pitch count. That’s not a good sign either. Furthermore, Garcia has walked 10 batters over his past 16 innings and while he is maintaining his elite groundball rate, his first-pitch strike rate and swing and miss rate are both on the decline. Walking batters is a sign of fatigue. Garcia’s health is always an issue. All the negative signs point to one of two things. First, he may have a nagging injury that he’s not disclosing or he’s just feeling the effects of all his past injuries. While we understand that Garcia is capable of a strong outing, he’s too big a risk at this price to trust with his declining profile.
Meanwhile, the market is not buying that the Phillies are greatly improved from last season but we are, as we suggested in our “Future bets” section before the season started. The Phillies are four games above .500 at 16-12. A blown save in the ninth inning last night prevented them from being 17-11. Jared Eickhoff is killing it. You would be hard-pressed to find another pitcher not named Clayton Kershaw that is dominating in the way that Eickhoff is. He has a BB/K split of 5/32 in 30 frames. His 4.15 ERA and 1-3 record is the result of an extremely unlucky 62% strand rate. Eickhoff closed out his first stint in the bigs last year with back-to-back 10-K gems so it’s not like this strong start came out of nowhere. However, he pitches for the Phillies and the market has recognized that along with his surface stats to create this big overlay that we’ll play in five frames because the Cardinals have a very good bullpen and the propensity to rally late.
Detroit (5 innings) +120
The Indians won the first two games of this series but had a distinct starting pitching edge both games. That ends today with Trevor Bauer going up against rookie Michael Fulmer. Bauer makes his second start of the year here after failing to crack the rotation out of spring training. He’s starting because Carlos Carrasco is on the DL and because Cody Anderson was sent down to the minors. Incidentally, Anderson was the only pitcher that Bauer had to beat out of spring to win a spot in the rotation, as the first four were set. Bauer opened this season by working out of the Indians bullpen for seven games before being forced back into the rotation. So, once again, there is no quantum leap for this once-top prospect. The only real difference between Bauer’s first to second halves last year were hit, strand, and home run rates. Reining in his control would be the first step to Bauer being relevant but his weak first pitch strike rate over his entire career of 58% does not make us overly optimistic. In his first start in Philadelphia, Bauer lasted four innings and surrendered five hits, three runs, one bomb and walked two. In other words, a typical Trevor Bauer start. Dude has been erratic for years. Every time he takes a step forward (throws a 7-inning gem of 2 hits and 10 K’s) he almost always follows it up with three disasters in a row. Bauer will now hope for better results in his second start of the year here but we’re not optimistic about that either. In two starts versus the Tigers last year, Bauer managed only six innings pitched and allowed 16 hits and 13 earned runs. The Tigers have been strong on the road, with a .789 OPS, which is 2nd in the AL.
The Indians have never seen Michael Fulmer and that works in Fulmer’s favor for at least for the first couple times through the order. That prompts us to play this one in the first five innings only. Fulmer doesn’t have the ceiling other top prospects have but he looked fine in his debut against the Twins, throwing gas with a 95 mile-per-hour fastball and a hard slider. He did look somewhat more hittable his second time through the lineup and we didn’t see as much movement on his pitches as we would have liked to see but Fulmer should be a capable major league arm. Throwing great games has become commonplace for Fulmer and now that he has his first MLB game under his belt, he figures to be more relaxed here.He posted a 1.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP across his final 15 starts in the minors. Stuff-wise, Fulmer sits in the mid-90s regularly with his sinking fastball and complements it with a sharp slider that's a legit swing-and-miss pitch. He'll throw in an average curve and change-up to keep hitters honest. He could stand to improve some with his ability to get ahead in the count, but he continues to make strides with his overall command. Throw that all together with an above-average groundball lean and a strong, tall frame, and Fulmer looks every bit the part of a low-risk underdog in a good spot.
Colorado (5 innings) +127
Matt Cain could succeed here because many weak pitchers in the past have at this park so it should be rephrased that AT&T could succeed here against the Rockies.Cain has struggled to a 7.00 ERA in his first five starts with only one of those five being even close to a quality outing. Cain’s swing and miss rate is down to 6% over his last two starts and 7% on the year. He first pitch strike rate is also waning badly. Cain is an “old” 31-year-old with plenty of miles on his arm. A strained flexor tendon at end of spring training last year wiped out his first half and he was shell of his former self when he came back. His velocity reached a career low last season and it’s even worse this season. Cain no longer has a groundball lean either, as his 32%/26%/41% GB/LD/FB profile will attest to. Matt Cain looks like a longshot to rebound or to be productive, much less both and we are absolutely thrilled to get this price against him at any time. Matt Cain has a job because the Giants are paying him 20M this season and like many other teams, they would rather lose games than pay a guy $384,000 per week to sit on the bench.
Chris Rusin went 6-10 with a 5.33 ERA in 132 innings for the Rockies last season. On paper that does not look good but that works to our advantage because when you drop any starter into Colorado’s horrendous pitching venue, it can look ugly on paper. On the plus side, Rusin built on an already attractive groundball rate last year while his first-pitch strike rate took a huge step forward and held firm all season. He’s only started one game this year after five appearances in the pen but it was a pretty sweet start in Arizona, where Rusin went five full and allowed just one hit while striking out six batters and throwing just 76 pitches. His leash will certainly be a bit longer here. In 16 innings this year, Rusin has allowed a measly seven hits and has an elite 61% groundball rate and an also elite 11% line-drive rate. That strong batted ball profile is something Rusin has maintained most of his career covering over 250 innings. This is a starter-based wager and therefore playing it in five frames is a no-brainer.
Ray Monohan
Red Sox vs. White Sox
Play: Red Sox +102
The Red Sox and White Sox conclude their series with the rubber match on Thursday night. We get two very young pitchers, but it's the Red Sox who have the edge. Boston has won 8 of its last 10 games and have the offense clicking right now.
Xander Bogaerts is currently on a 6 game hitting streak and has many multi hit games over that span. He's ignited the Red Sox offense and has been the spark to get everyone else going. Boston should have 1B Hanley Ramirez back as well. The Red Sox 1B missed Wednesday with the flu, but is expected to be back in the lineup here.
Some trends to consider. Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Boston has the edge here n the pitching matchup and with them being on a hot streak right now, look for them to take the series here on Thursday.
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Brewers -102
It's hard to believe that the Milwaukee Brewers are actually underdogs to the Cincinnati Reds today when you consider the massive advantage they have on the mound. I'll back them at basically even money because of it.
While Chase Anderson is 1-3 with a 5.55 ERA, including 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two road starts, he's still the much better starter in this one. And I also like the fact that Anderson has never lost to the Reds, going 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in three career starts against them.
Alfredo Simon is one of the worst starters in the big leagues. He has really struggled in 2016, going 0-3 with a 12.40 ERA and 2.755 WHIP in four starts. Simon has allowed 17 earned runs and 34 base runners in only 12 1/3 innings pitched in this four starts.
The Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Milwaukee is 4-1 in its last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Reds are 24-53 in their last 77 overall. Cincinnati is 0-6 in Simon's last six starts during Game 1 of a series. Milwaukee is 6-1 in its last seven trips to Cincinnati.
Brandon Lee
Washington Nationals +131
This is simply too good a price to pass up on the Nationals in Thursday's series opener between the two best teams in the NL so far this season. Chicago is overvalued by the books right now due to their incredible start, but this is a prime spot to go against them as a big favorite with No. 5 starter Kyle Hendricks on the mound. We are also getting exceptional value here with one of the more underrated starters in Washington's Joe Ross, who comes in with a sensational 0.79 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in 4 starts and 3 of those have come on the road. Chicago is just 2-11 in their last 13 after back-to-back wins by 4 or more runs and the Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games.
Jimmy Boyd
Baltimore Orioles -103
Baltimore is showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home in Thursday's series finale against the division rival New York. The Orioles lost for just the fourth time at home yesterday, as they are 10-4 at Camden Yards. The Yankees on the other hand recorded only their fourth win on the road.
New York is simply getting too much respect here due to sending out their ace Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 2.87 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 5 starts. Baltimore will counter with Kevin Gausman, who has been equally impressive in the early goings. Gausman has a 2.45 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in 2 starts. He's also got a strong history against the Yankees with a 2.57 ERA and 1.143 WHIP in 5 starts. Tanaka has pitched well against the Orioles, but will be making his first ever start in Baltimore, so those numbers are a bit skewed in his favor.
Baltimore is 18-5 in their last 23 home games off a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Orioles are also 20-8 in their last 28 home games dating back to last season and 13-5 in their last 18 against the AL East. Yankees on the other hand are just 6-18 in their last 24 after allowing 2 runs or less, 1-4 in their last 5 off a win and 1-4 in Tanaka's last 5 starts after losing his previous outing.
Tony Karpinski
Yankees vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -103
Gausman has been good, but certainly not great, we needs to get that 1st win linked up, and now has pulled his ERA to 2.45 and his WHIP to 0.91 so he is using his arm pretty well right now, going up vs a poor hitting lineup like the Yanks wont be too difficult.
This is only 1 win in 5 starts for pitcher, Tanaka, who holds a less than perfect 2.87 ERA. It's concerning that Tanaka has not been able to seal the deal when asked to, and considering his stretch, it's hard to trust him, pitching vs a pretty good batting team like the O's, it's going to be a challenge.
Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.
Matt Josephs
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Play: Over 7½
A pair of lefties take the mound on Thursday as the Marlins host the Diamondbacks. Adam Conley is coming off a real good start in Milwaukee, but threw a ton of pitches along the way. Conley is 1-1 with a 3.67 ERA and a WHIP of 1.222 in five starts. Arizona is hitting .292 in nine games against left-handed starters going over in six of those. The Marlins bullpen is very iffy besides their closer Ramos. Robbie Ray has scuffled his last two starts giving up 10 runs and 15 hits in seven innings at home to Colorado and Pittsburgh. Last year the Marlins rocked him for five runs and five hits in just over four innings. The Marlins are hitting .296 in four games against left-handed starters continuing their trend from last year of smacking southpaws around. Arizona's bullpen is also a bit shaky. These two teams should be able to put up some runs on Thursday.
Dave Price
Colorado Rockies +127
I like getting the Colorado Rockies as road underdogs to the San Francisco Giants today. They should arguably be favored when you factor in the starting pitching matchup here. Chris Rusin pitched 5 shutout innings in a 5-2 win at Arizona in his only start this season. Rusin has the Giants figured out, going 1-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts against them. Matt Cain remains awful this year, going 0-3 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.592 WHIP in 5 starts. Cain gave up 6 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Rockies.
Will Rogers
Mets vs. Padres
Pick: Mets
The New York Mets will play Game 1 of a new series in San Diego on Thursday night, and the Mets come in as winners of 10 of their last 12. The Padres were shutout at home by the Rockies in their last game, and San Diego sits dead last in the NL West. My money is on the Mets as the road favorite.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Jacob deGrom will take the mound for the visitors, and the right-hander is still undefeated in 2016. deGrom (3-0, 1.02 ERA) allowed three unearned runs on just two hits over six innings in a home win over the Giants in his last outing. He only faced the Padres once last season, tossing eight scoreless innings and striking out eight batters.
2. San Diego's Offense - The Padres are notorious for their lack of production at the plate over the past several seasons. Nothing has changed in that department this year, as they are batting just .232 as a team, ranking 24th in the majors in runs scored.
3. X-Factor - San Diego starter Colin Rea has allowed seven runs on 15 hits in just 11 innings of work at home this season.
Vegas Butcher
Boston Red Sox +100
Just like Boston struggles against lefties (my logic yesterday), White Sox do the same, ranking 24th offensively against them. Boston, on the other hand, ranks 3rd offensively against right-handers. Erik Johnson is replacing an ineffective Danks, but Johnson’s career xFIP of 5.32, 37% GB-rate, and 1.5 HR/9 rate are scary here. He also doesn’t get lefties out having a higher BB-rate (14%) than K-rate (11%) against them in his career with a 6.6 xFIP. Expect Boston to feature at least 4 lefties in the lineup tonight, and I’ll back them with their key advantage offensively.