Free Picks for Tuesday, April 11th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Sleepyj
Atlanta -7.5
Big game for the Hawks and really the only game that means anything today. The rest fo the games have no playoff implications at all. So be careful betting the NBA today....Look the Hawks can improve the seeding they have with two wins in the last two remaining games...Hawks get a home game here and it's the final home game for them of the season. They finish with the Pacers on the road and that will be a tough out because the Pacers will need that game to lock them into the playoffs...So this one sets up nice for Atlanta tonight....Hornets can play the roll of spoiler, but in most cases I would rarely look at the dog in this specific spot....Kemba Walker is OUT and the Hornets have now lost 4 straight...Since being knocked out of the playoffs the Hornets have had little life in them what so ever....This is the Hornets final game of the season and it's vacation time right around half-time I would say...They gain nothing from winning and I expect that kind of mindset and attitude from them tonight...Hawks are trying to improve before the playoffs and this game sets up nice for them tonight...I expect a big winner and this rated a 2** play that was to be my premium. We get it free today.
Scott Spreitzer
Cardinals vs. Nationals
Play: Nationals -131
Washington put 14 runs on the scoreboard in its win over the Cardinals Monday night and the Nationals lead the majors with a .308 batting average and they're third in runs scored with 40. Lance Lynn had a shaky start in a 6-4 loss to the Cubs as he returns from Tommy John surgery. Lynn threw 98 pitches in 5 1/3 innings and allowed two runs on five hits. Meanwhile, Gio Gonzalez threw six shutout innings against the Marlins, who won in 4-3 in 10 innings. Gonzalez struck out seven and walked only one. The left-hander pitched well last April when he gave up just four earned runs in 25 1/3 innings. St. Louis has lost five of its first seven games with just a .216 team batting average while scoring only 25 runs and 10 of them came in one game against the Reds.
Ben Burns
Nuggets vs. Mavs
Play: Over 212½
I successfully played on the Mavs to go 'over' in their last game. They rewarded me by giving up 124 points, in a loss at Phoenix. While they'd been playing better defense a few weeks ago, the Mavs have seemingly packed it in at that end of the floor now. Their last three games have all finished above the number.
Speaking of "packing it in on defense," the Nuggets have now allowed "triple-digits" in scoring in 14 straight games. Thats right. Their last 14 opponents have all scored more than 100 points against them. This is the lowest O/U line that they've seen in weeks and I believe it'll probably prove to be too low.
3G-Sports
Denver vs. Dallas
Play: Dallas Pk
Denver has been shooting lights out, and they can put up points, as their 112 ppg but they were eilimated from the playoffs on Sunday night. Dallas has to adjust more than a bit, defenses are switching things up vs them - especially on the transition of them when they try to get moving fast up court. Dallas, for what it's worth, has not been defending the ball as good as they were doing earlier in the season. They've also been eliminated but I like the Mavs at home on Tuesday night.
Mike Anthony
Charlotte vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -7.5
Charlotte has to stay on the right track thought the game. Charlotte are a more efficient team when it comes to defensive rebounding the ball, along with excellent ball control. Charlotte can also actually defend the ball better than most as their 12th ranked oppg proves. Atlanta has to not get lazy defending the 3 ball attack of Charlotte with Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are both capable of sticking their share of treys - problem is that Atlanta have given up more than their share of games of allowing teams to score 25+ from behind the arc. Atlanta doesn't have enough faith in their scoring anywhere near quite good enough to hold on - even at home. Charlotte wins this one by double digits points.
Rob Vinciletti
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Atlanta Braves +120
The Braves fit a nice dog system here that pertains to teams that are off a 1 run road dog loss vs a team like the Marlins that are also off a road loss. The Braves have Colon on the mound and he was solid going 6 strong allowing 1 run last out. He is 8-1 as an April road dog and has won 3 of 4 in Miami. Straily for the fish was knocked around in his first start and has lost 3 of 4 home April starts. The Braves have won 9 straight vs a team that allowed 5 or more runs in last game. The Marlins have lost 4 of 5 off a road trip of 7+ days dating to last year.
Marc Lawrence
Pelicans at Lakers
Play: Pelicans
Edges - Pelicans: 7-1 ATS join Tuesdays… Lakers: 1-6 ATS on Tuesdays; and 5-17 SU off a win this season, including 0-3 SUATS against foes off a double-digit win… With the Pelicans off a 22-point loss and the Lakers off a win, we recommend a 1* play join New Orleans.
Art Aronson
Charlotte vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -7.5
Atlanta comes in off back-to-back victories over the Cavs, including a 126-125 OT home win on Sunday. The Hornets are playing their final game of the season and we’re expecting them to simply go through the motions in this one. Also note that ATL plays with triple revenge here after dropping all three games to Charlotte this season. The Hornets have been in a free fall since the new year, while Atlanta is playing its best ball of the season and will look to keep the momentum rolling to open the playoffs. We’re expecting a double-digit victory, consider laying the points on the HAWKS.
Ray Monohan
Suns / Kings Under 219.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Phoenix Suns try to finish off their season strong when they take on Sacramento Kings and at this kind of total there is a lot of value. The Kings are a team that plays a slower pace of basketball. The Kings are scored under 98 points in three of their last five games.
When the two teams play each other the games also seem to be slower paced. The two teams haven't combined for more then 210 points in any of the last five games. Some trends to note. Under is 12-1 in Kings last 13 games following a ATS win. Under is 5-0 in Suns last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
John Ryan
Rangers vs. Angels
Play: Angels -112
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
Here is a system that has gone 65-39 for 63% winners and has made 33.4 units/unit wagered since 2012. Play against AL road teams that are solid offensive teams scoring >=4.9 runs/game on the season and after allowing 1 run or less.
Angels are 18-5 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
Angels are 13-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
Other Fundamental and Technical Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Angels.
Skaggs gets the start for the Angels tonight. He is a young RH starter featuring a glove sweeping curve with hard late movement down in the strike zone. He gets enough movement on is four-seam fastball that generates a majority of easy fly ball outs. Despite having essentially just two pitches, batters have a difficult time getting ‘barreled’ up against him. We think he will have a quality start tonight at minimum.
Dustin Hawkins
Arizona at San Francisco
Play: Arizona +110
Arizona is 20-9 against the money line vs. a bad bullpen like that of the Giants that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. Giants pitcher Jeff Samardzija is 20-32 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 since 1997.
Chip Chirimbes
Rangers at Angels
Play: Angels -109
Baseball is the longest of seasons with trends becoming a large part of handicapping winners over the course of the year. This matchup has a number of trends that just can't be ignored. The start with the Angels who are 3-0 already at home are now 10-1 in their last 11 as hosts while Texas is 2-9 in their last 11 games overall. The Rangers are 19-26 all-time in its first road game of the season including four straight losses. Add that L.A. Is 36-22 against the Rangers the past three years regardless of who is pitching.
Drew Martin
St. Louis at Washington
Play: Washington -135
Promising start to the season for Washington's Gio Gonzalez who threw six scoreless innings and punched out seven batters against the Miami Marlins. No longer blessed with a plus fastball, Gonzalez has rightfully earned the rep of being all-or-nothing. He pitched far better than his 4.57 ERA last season and should continue to benefit from pitching coach Mike Maddux. Today's matchups should yield positive results as St. Louis' offensive is off to a slow start. The Cards have already been shutout twice as well as held to single run. They managed to pound around Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo but outside of that, have produced little to no offense. That includes two games against lefty starters Jon Lester and rookie Amir Garrett in which St. Louis plated only a single run.
Lance Lynn was solid in his return from Tommy John surgery. Lynn, who missed all of 2016, allowed two runs in 5.1 IP against the Cubs. He did however throw 98 pitches and recorded only five swinging strikes. His velocity, which was a concern during spring training, was also down a tick from where it was at pre-surgery. You leave the door open for Lynn to regain his form but for now, he remains a work in progress. Lynn has also shown a strong career home/road dichotomy with an OPS against over over 100 points higher on the highway. We'll look to back Washington at the moderate home price as Gonzalez appears to have a solid edge over Lynn.
Wunderdog
Texas @ Los Angeles
Pick: Texas +103
The Angels have started fast at 5-2, while the Rangers are a disappointing 2-4 out of the gate. The Rangers are the vastly superior team as including the playoffs, they have won 90+ games in six of the last seven seasons. They have their ace, Cole Hamels, ready to deliver in this one. He has pitched the Rangers to a 35-11 mark in his last 46 starts, with the Rangers winning those games by an average of 1.33 runs per contest. He is 3-1 over the same period vs. LA, winning by 2.5 runs per contest. Tyler Skaggs has a career mark of 19-23, with opponents scoring 4.67 runs per game. The Rangers have plated 6.75 runs per game against him in his four starts. The door is open for the Rangers, so play on Texas.